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The Butters Cup: Changes vs Port in Ballarat

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Wetdog said:
If Bont is injured, and Treloar is fit, would you play him?
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No.

It's not like a situation with Bont where he had a full preseason and was only injured on the eve of the season. Treloar hasn't been right since he did a calf late last season and then had other soft tissue injuries along with it. I'd rather be super cautious with him and slowly get his fitness up.
 

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Doggstats said:
It's tricky because Richards is rated 5# in the AFL this season with CD player ratings (17.8), Kennedy is 9# (16.79) and Libba is 11# (16.74). As good as Treloar was last season all 3 of those mentioned are averaging higher ratings than Treloar's 2024 (15.8). Not to mention Bont is 1# in the comp with a crazy 20.0 rating but obviously too small a sample size.

Richards, Libba, Kennedy have 80%, 75%, 67% midfield time respectively so it's already going to be a challenge to get Bont midfield time, he's only had 55% midfield time since his return. Even if we take away Freijah's 27% or Sanders 20% or Harmes 3% midfield time we're still going to have to cut a lot more to get Treloar and Bont midfield time.

So the question is who can be the most effective playing high half-forward/wing or as a forward, and Treloar and Bont are the obvious 2 which have the best proven form in this positions.

Kennedy actually played a majority forward last 2 seasons with 33% and 34% midfield time but was only rated 9.12 and 9.14 in those 2 seasons (avg 17 and 18 disposals those 2 seasons).
Compare that with Treloar who had almost identical midfield splits in 2021/2022 (34% and 37%) but was way more effective with 12.50 and 11.82 player ratings (avg 27 and 23 disposals) and avg more goals in those 2 years than Kennedy has kicked in any year of his career (except 2019's only 10 game sample size).

But at the end of the day our midfield is by far the 1# in the comp atm, so why mess with something that's not broken? We also don't know how Treloar will perform on his return so I think it just makes sense to ease him back into midfield time as he gets his legs back.
There's no way Treloar isn't going to be a huge upgrade over VDM or Dolan playing in that role.
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Kennedy's rank 9 in part because he's kicked 7 goals from 9 relatively difficult shots on goals. It's giving him over 2 ratings points per game average above what league-expected accuracy would be purely in accurate goalkicking, which would drop him to 14.6ish and below Treloar's rating last year and we should safely assume that over the long term even if he's an "excellent" kick for goal over a bigger sample size averages out to about 0.3-0.5 points gained per match (not 2) through goalkicking accuracy.

And at some point we have to assume that Kennedy's form will regress, to an extent, to what he showed at Carlton and why they made him available to us in the first place. Kennedy's obviously been an excellent pickup for us and will play the rest of the season far better than I thought he would pre-season, but at the same time, I don't expect him to keep us his form for the rest of the season, and I do think there's a real possibility that Treloar keeps up similar form to last year when he returns.

Kennedy can clearly play as part of a forward 6 rotation, as he did in R1 and R2 when he played less than 50% CBAs.

Richards 75%, Libba 70%, Bont 60%, Treloar 55%, Kennedy 20%, Freijah 20% works for me.
 
Dolan is the only out for mine (barring any injuries).

Has done really well and has a bright future, but is so lightly framed, so it's hard to back up week after week.

With our next 2 at Ballarat and Darwin will be particularly difficult for a player of his type to impact. Probably a good time for him to go to Footscray and give his body a bit of a break.

I'd keep Hynes in. He's more physically ready. I really like a couple of things he's done, reckon he'd be useful at Ballarat.
 
threenewpadlocks said:
Richards 75%, Libba 70%, Bont 60%, Treloar 55%, Kennedy 20%, Freijah 20% works for me.
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Probably splitting hairs but I'd take this further and add more players rotating through and give bont more time forward and Richards some time at half back.

Libba 70%, Richards 50%, Bont 50%, Treloar 50%, Freijah 40%, Harmes 15%, 15% Sanders, 10% West.
We have a huge advantage in Mids who are extremely strong in other positions, may as well use it.
 
Mojorisin said:
Probably splitting hairs but I'd take this further and add more players rotating through and give bont more time forward and Richards some time at half back.

Libba 70%, Richards 50%, Bont 50%, Treloar 50%, Freijah 40%, Harmes 15%, 15% Sanders, 10% West.
We have a huge advantage in Mids who are extremely strong in other positions, may as well use it.
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West seems to be only a 4th quarter midfield rotation. All season we have thrown him in there early in the 4th and not at all throughout the game

It's an interesting tactic, is it to protect his tank or just throwing a new look at the opposition late once they think they know what to expect
 

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dogwatch said:
He hasn’t played two poor games in a row since middle of last year IIRC. I’d back him in to play a much better game next week.

I know Bevo will and that’s probably all we need to know.
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You and I might have looser definitions on poor games dw. But if VDM survived 24 games of doing whatever that was last season, I’d be very surprised if he gets dropped after a more than respectable first month or the season and one down game coming back from injury.
 
I’m interested to know what the plan with Lobb is for the foreseeable future. When Darcy went down I was still in the position that I’d rather keep him back where he has been really, really good. Bevo saw enough in that first quarter that he felt the need to put him forward and I’m glad he did. I don’t trust any other big on the list to make a contest forward and alleviate some of the pressure off Naughton. The midfield dominated that much that Lobb leaving the backline was not an issue at all but it’s hard to have that level of dominance every week and it’ll be more interesting to know how his absence from defence would feel if we were under more pressure.

Wind is likely to be a massive factor this game so wouldn’t surprise me if Lobb just stays at the end with the wind all day, but I think we might need him forward with Darcy out. Didn’t think I’d take this position so quickly.
 
Bont was on the ground and running completely fine right through to the end of the 3QT. Unless something happened during the 3QT break, he should be fine.
 
There's no way VDM is getting dropped.

Hynes will be played in the VFL, Dolan will be sub, Treloar comes in.
 

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Bald said:
There's no way VDM is getting dropped.

Hynes will be played in the VFL, Dolan will be sub, Treloar comes in.
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We are going to have some selection headaches in the backend of the season when Darcy, Weightman and Jones (if not cooked) are fit.
 
Lindsay_Gilbee said:
Surely we’re all past looking at VDM’s stats and wanting him out based on that? It’s pretty clear his role isn’t judged on touches.

I dunno who played well in the two but Hynes and Dolan would be the two most likely for me. Think someone like Poulter can offer more at this stage.
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Perhaps more than Hynes at this point but Dolan I'd be investing as much senior game time into as possible (that is to say what's sustainable for him at a physical level).
 
Pencil case said:
Tom Morris (W***er) reported last night that Bont is fine and will face Port, also Treloar is a good chance to play this week.
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18 degrees in the Ballarat this weekend and then we play in Darwin the week after so will be interesting to see how we manage Adzy.
 
Libbaaaa said:
18 degrees in the Ballarat this weekend and then we play in Darwin the week after so will be interesting to see how we manage Adzy.
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Reckon they should give this developing midfield combo a crack at Port without Treloar.

The warmer climes of the Territory seems like it would be more conducive to an aging body's return.

Jongys return in that freezing Canberra game in 21 still haunts me. What a medium to long term disaster that game was.
 

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The Butters Cup: Changes vs Port in Ballarat


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