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Prediction Changes Rd 13 vs Hoks

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Considering we don't have any player on our list who played for us in 2008 when we last drew a match, it's hardly a surprise.


Updated list of all time streaks without a draw:

1. Adelaide 536 games between 1994 and 2017
2. Melbourne 462 games between between 1971 and 1992
3. Geelong 406 games between 1969 and 1987
4. Hawthorn 403 games between 1968 and 1985.
5. Bulldogs 399 games between 2008 and current ***


A result other than a draw tonight will take us to 400.
Any idea where we stand on the list of most honourable losses in a season?
 
It's not hard to tell who does and doesn't watch the 2's in here,

I like Buss think he will make it has been stiff in the past however Gards form over the past 4-5 weeks has been awesome and a level above, Yes Buss was sub/travelling emergency in that time which is stiff for him however picking the ins on form Gards is well ahead of him and Jones,

As for the flexibility debate Gards can play 3 positions but also gives us the extra tall which can throw Lobby around if needed too which we have lacked in recent weeks and what I think is a part of blame for our losses against Geelong and GC
 
Gardner just has to do a job. All 23 have to. Must win, for more reasons than just the result and our season. Need some pride back after last September. That was a disgrace.
 
Just feel bad for Buss.

Didn’t do much wrong on his debut and hasn’t seen it since apart from 10 mins against Port.
Reading training reports / VFL reports, as soon as he eliminates those 1-2 howler turnovers per game he becomes best 22.
Unfortunately it came late against Geelong VFL and he was absolutely filthy with himself. Like he knows that cost him an AFL game.
 

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Reading training reports / VFL reports, as soon as he eliminates those 1-2 howler turnovers per game he becomes best 22.
Unfortunately it came late against Geelong VFL and he was absolutely filthy with himself. Like he knows that cost him an AFL game.
Feel like this is 50% of it and the other 50% is Gards has been in elite VFL form and has battled hard for his recall

Buss was very unlucky we faced a small Port side in hurricane winds after his debut
 
Bus has been terribly mismanaged here, perfect opportunity to give him a sustained crack pre-bye. We give him a debut where he looks assured and solid game one. Make him sub game two which you could see the reasoning given ports sub was a tall. Game three we drop him for Darwin again you can see the reasoning given suns went smaller and the conditions. But then we overlook him the next two weeks and now first game back post bye we basically put him third in the pecking order.

Bus has been managed very differently to our past KPDs who have been thrown the wolves when not ready and just persisted with. He looks ready yet we won’t play him.

Oh and anyone who criticises his skills as a reason he shouldn’t be in but backs Gardner in has clearly forgotten some of the absolute shockers Gardner used to have on a weekly basis in the afl by foot
Maybe you should be a coach. Seeing you seem to know better than Pratt and co how to manage and develop young players.
 
Gift? Do you watch anything outside of match days? Gardiner has been better than both and consistent each week. You have to reward form regardless your past bias of a player.

Jones was getting burnt for pace and falling over heaps before his injury. He needs a run in the twos to show he can still keep up with the pace of AFL.
Why do you have to reward VFL form but not reward AFL form? Buss was good, then got moved to sub and dropped never to be seen again. Gardner's previous AFL outings have been uniformly bad.
 
I do wonder what reality people are living in, even aside from the fact that we should be supportive of our own players (and especially so with blokes like Gardner who is a humble, hard-working, decent human being off the field).

Is this a bit of residual impact of his mid-season drafting in 2019, being rushed into the team and then playing two poor games when he did? Ok sure that was a bit of mad Bevo doing his own thing but that was long ago. I do recall him also playing poorly in the games either side of the COVID break when we played two games terribly as a team (the losses to the Pies and Saints)

But since then he's actually been a very decent AFL footballer.

His 5th game upon return partway through the 2020 season was a loss. But we then had a surprising 5-1 run after then to make (and narrowly lose) finals in which Gardner's selection vs. earlier in the season was part of the reason why we were winning games. He was decent.

Then in 2021 he started the season very well in two games before busting his shoulder in the first minute of the third game. I do explicitly recall him being good for those two games.

He was then okay when he came back from injury, better than Cordy and Young without being outstanding.

He then came 7th in 2022 in a finals-qualifying team as he was fit and good for the whole season.

He was then patchy in 2023 struggling with fitness and his last game was the GWS Ballarat Game when they ran over the top of us when we had one on the bench in the last quarter, but he had already been dropped when we had the two narrow losses to Hawks and West Coast that cost us finals. Those losses were not his fault, he wasn't in the team.

But there's a reason we're 31-22 in the games that he played (and 30-18 in the last 48 games he played, 2 in his debut season, the 2 weird games either side of the first Covid break, and the one game to return to form), because he's actually been a good player at times playing a role in a team that finds wins.
Sure if you completely re-write history, he's a fine player.
Hes had 5 years and 50 odd games to show what he's made of. And unfortunately, he isnt up to AFL standard. So why are we persisting? Is Hawthorn's forward line drastically taller than GWS. PA or Geelong?

Also being equally bad in multiple positions doesn't help flexibility.
 
Time for one of those "well, that escalated quickly" memes.

But seriously how often have we seen this sort of facile exchange?

"Do you think you know better than the coaches?"​
"What? Aren't I even allowed to state my opinion? Isn't that why we have BF?"​

I actually have some sympathy for D_13 on this. It's like when the umpires only report the player who retaliated. Not the one who started it. However they are both seasoned posters so it all seems a bit unnecessary.

Small storm. Tiny tea cup. Let's move on.
 

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Sure if you completely re-write history, he's a fine player.
Hes had 5 years and 50 odd games to show what he's made of. And unfortunately, he isnt up to AFL standard. So why are we persisting? Is Hawthorn's forward line drastically taller than GWS. PA or Geelong?

Also being equally bad in multiple positions doesn't help flexibility.
But 22 odd of the 50 games were in the 2022 season where he clearly was up to AFL standard. Otherwise he wouldn't have finished 7th in our B&F. By definition. That's the point. It's virtually impossible to finish top 10 in the B&F in a finals-making team and not be an AFL standard player at the time. Even if you Thu

This is not re-writing history it is literally just the facts of his 2022 season.
 
But 22 odd of the 50 games were in the 2022 season where he clearly was up to AFL standard. Otherwise he wouldn't have finished 7th in our B&F. By definition. That's the point. It's virtually impossible to finish top 10 in the B&F in a finals-making team and not be an AFL standard player at the time. Even if you Thu

This is not re-writing history it is literally just the facts of his 2022 season.

Without going to much into it because I don't like what I turn in to when entering Gardner discussions. The best and fairest results are voted by the few people who rate him at this level. It's a bit of "I can't believe Bevo and the MC think this guy is good and think he is best 22" and then the evidence that he is good is that he finished high in a B+F voted on by Bevo and the MC.

Best and Fairest's always throw out pretty funky results anyway, seen Lachie Plowman get two podium finishes and then delisted a year later. Aidan Corr and Jake Kelly regularly finish high in them, Short beat Dusty in a Tigers premiership one. Gardner got AFLCA coaches votes quite a few times in 22 and I'd say with 99.5% confidence that none of them came from an opposition coach. I doubt he finished too high in our Ching voting but we notoriously vote quite poorly
 
Selection integrity - you just have to reward form.
Gardiner has earned his promotion.

I'm huge on Buss and he's unlucky JOD has been performing well.
 
Bus has been terribly mismanaged here, perfect opportunity to give him a sustained crack pre-bye. We give him a debut where he looks assured and solid game one. Make him sub game two which you could see the reasoning given ports sub was a tall. Game three we drop him for Darwin again you can see the reasoning given suns went smaller and the conditions. But then we overlook him the next two weeks and now first game back post bye we basically put him third in the pecking order.

Bus has been managed very differently to our past KPDs who have been thrown the wolves when not ready and just persisted with. He looks ready yet we won’t play him.

Oh and anyone who criticises his skills as a reason he shouldn’t be in but backs Gardner in has clearly forgotten some of the absolute shockers Gardner used to have on a weekly basis in the afl by foot
I don't buy the premise that we should be abandoning selection integrity (selecting the most in-form VFL player irrespective of age) to manage the development of a player who is not even necessarily certain to ever make it at AFL level in a permanent sense.

And even if we were, the time to do it isn't in a critical, leverage game (even this early in the season) that the winner and loser is far more likely relative to the other to finish top 4. Maybe in a game against a bottom 6 team or if we were not essentially 50/50 to finish top 4 at this stage in the season. But this game against the Hawks isn't that - the swing in our top 4 chances between a win and a loss is basically as high as you can ever get in a round 13 game.
 
Without going to much into it because I don't like what I turn in to when entering Gardner discussions. The best and fairest results are voted by the few people who rate him at this level. It's a bit of "I can't believe Bevo and the MC think this guy is good and think he is best 22" and then the evidence that he is good is that he finished high in a B+F voted on by Bevo and the MC.

Best and Fairest's always throw out pretty funky results anyway, seen Lachie Plowman get two podium finishes and then delisted a year later. Aidan Corr and Jake Kelly regularly finish high in them, Short beat Dusty in a Tigers premiership one. Gardner got AFLCA coaches votes quite a few times in 22 and I'd say with 99.5% confidence that none of them came from an opposition coach. I doubt he finished too high in our Ching voting but we notoriously vote quite poorly
Caveat is that a lot of those players you named were not in finals-making teams or that players fall out of favour with a new coach and therefore fundamentally different communication/tactical style. I agree top 10s can be a bit funky for B&Fs for bad teams but

Neither of those is true for Gardner in 2022 though. Bevo is still his coach.
 
I don't buy the premise that we should be abandoning selection integrity (selecting the most in-form VFL player irrespective of age) to manage the development of a player who is not even necessarily certain to ever make it at AFL level in a permanent sense.

And even if we were, the time to do it isn't in a critical, leverage game (even this early in the season) that the winner and loser is far more likely relative to the other to finish top 4. Maybe in a game against a bottom 6 team or if we were not essentially 50/50 to finish top 4 at this stage in the season. But this game against the Hawks isn't that - the swing in our top 4 chances between a win and a loss is basically as high as you can ever get in a round 13 game.

Selection integrity isn’t just VFL form though is it? Or every player would be having to come back through the VFL.

In saying that I never said Gardner shouldn’t be selected I said Bus has been mismanaged. I only mentioned Gardner in relation to those posters suggesting Bus foot skills aren’t up to AFL.

Both Gardners form at VFL level warranting selection and Bus having been mismanaged can be true.

Bus hasn’t exactly been provided the opportunity to build a case at VFL level.

He performed well at AFL level in the full game and sub game. Then was travelling emergency v suns which till that point you could argue that their was clear reasoning for those decisions.

He was then emergency the next two weeks before being over looked. And seemingly down the pecking order even with some recent although minimum afl form
 

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Selection integrity isn’t just VFL form though is it? Or every player would be having to come back through the VFL.

In saying that I never said Gardner shouldn’t be selected I said Bus has been mismanaged. I only mentioned Gardner in relation to those posters suggesting Bus foot skills aren’t up to AFL.

Both Gardners form at VFL level warranting selection and Bus having been mismanaged can be true.

Bus hasn’t exactly been provided the opportunity to build a case at VFL level.

He performed well at AFL level in the full game and sub game. Then was travelling emergency v suns which till that point you could argue that their was clear reasoning for those decisions.

He was then emergency the next two weeks before being over looked. And seemingly down the pecking order even with some recent although minimum afl form
Both can be true but it's entirely fine to mismanage young players in the attempt to win flags in the here and now by simple optimisation logic "what maximises our chances of future flags the best"

Because ultimately the development of young players represent the possibility of winning future flags in a vague, distant sense - we very marginally improve our chance of winning the 2029 flag or whatever on the basis of how we manage Buss. Say we improve our chance of that 2028, 2029 flag by 0.005% or whatever because Buss has played 3 AFL games instead of 2. We improve our average number of flags won from 1.1 to 1.105 over ten 10 years or whatever.

But that's far more distant and the impacts far less determinative than the impact of a win in this season, even if Gardner only makes us a 2 point a game better team than Buss. But the reasonable, 2% probability that Gardner was a factor turns a 1 point loss into a 1 point win (Hawks are a 2% chance of winning the game by exactly 1 point), which in turn makes us 40% more likely to finish top 4 or whatever. This is a 0.5% ish percent in our increase in winning the flag this year, which is 10x the impact of the fact that the difference is Buss having played 3 AFL games instead of 2 increases our chance of winning the flag by 0.005%, in each of the next 10 years or whatever.

Even if I'm pulling the numbers out of my arse a bit you can sort of see the range of logic I'm going here - maybe the swing is not 10x the chance of future flags but 2x or 5x but it's still far more likely with Gardner in the team.

The principle of this is why it's logical for good teams to top up with old players (Geelong strategy) rather than look to develop for the future.
 
Both can be true but it's entirely fine to mismanage young players in the attempt to win flags in the here and now by simple optimisation logic "what maximises our chances of future flags the best"

Because ultimately the development of young players represent the possibility of winning future flags in a vague, distant sense - we very marginally improve our chance of winning the 2029 flag or whatever on the basis of how we manage Buss. Say we improve our chance of that 2028, 2029 flag by 0.005% or whatever because Buss has played 3 AFL games instead of 2. We improve our average number of flags won from 1.1 to 1.105 over ten 10 years or whatever.

But that's far more distant and the impacts far less determinative than the impact of a win in this season, even if Gardner only makes us a 2 point a game better team than Buss. But the reasonable, 2% probability that Gardner was a factor turns a 1 point loss into a 1 point win (Hawks are a 2% chance of winning the game by exactly 1 point), which in turn makes us 40% more likely to finish top 4 or whatever. This is a 0.5% ish percent in our increase in winning the flag this year, which is 10x the impact of the fact that the difference is Buss having played 3 AFL games instead of 2 increases our chance of winning the flag by 0.005%, in each of the next 10 years or whatever.

Even if I'm pulling the numbers out of my arse a bit you can sort of see the range of logic I'm going here - maybe the swing is not 10x the chance of future flags but 2x or 5x but it's still far more likely with Gardner in the team.

The principle of this is why it's logical for good teams to top up with old players (Geelong strategy) rather than look to develop for the future.

I think we have just mismanaged him not necessarily by not selecting him this game but taking him to Darwin when he was never going to play rather than give him minutes in the VFL and then he could have easily returned v Essendon.

Clearly the coaches want the ability to swing Lobb forward which we haven’t had recently.

I don’t think the selection either way will make the difference in the game tonight. But we could have gave his development a boost during the period jones was out
 
It is an interesting debate re Gards and Buss. Gards has played really well in the VFL , marking a lot more and not trying to bite off too much with his disposal.

Buss looked at home in the VFL and played well 90% of the game in the VFL, but the other 10% includes some diaboltical clangers which after the first half against the Cats was never going to see him in.

Bringing in the extra tall provides significant flexibility both on defence and to stretch the Hawks. Hope Gards continues his recent run of form.

Either way a Gards or Buss selection really has no impact on winning or losing this game. Dominate the midfield and we are better at either end of the ground, and reduce clangers
 
Both can be true but it's entirely fine to mismanage young players in the attempt to win flags in the here and now by simple optimisation logic "what maximises our chances of future flags the best"

Because ultimately the development of young players represent the possibility of winning future flags in a vague, distant sense - we very marginally improve our chance of winning the 2029 flag or whatever on the basis of how we manage Buss. Say we improve our chance of that 2028, 2029 flag by 0.005% or whatever because Buss has played 3 AFL games instead of 2. We improve our average number of flags won from 1.1 to 1.105 over ten 10 years or whatever.

But that's far more distant and the impacts far less determinative than the impact of a win in this season, even if Gardner only makes us a 2 point a game better team than Buss. But the reasonable, 2% probability that Gardner was a factor turns a 1 point loss into a 1 point win (Hawks are a 2% chance of winning the game by exactly 1 point), which in turn makes us 40% more likely to finish top 4 or whatever. This is a 0.5% ish percent in our increase in winning the flag this year, which is 10x the impact of the fact that the difference is Buss having played 3 AFL games instead of 2 increases our chance of winning the flag by 0.005%, in each of the next 10 years or whatever.

Even if I'm pulling the numbers out of my arse a bit you can sort of see the range of logic I'm going here - maybe the swing is not 10x the chance of future flags but 2x or 5x but it's still far more likely with Gardner in the team.

The principle of this is why it's logical for good teams to top up with old players (Geelong strategy) rather than look to develop for the future.
Are you seriously arguing selecting Gardner gives us a better chance at a flag this year?
 
We all knew what Gardner would bring at AFL level, he just is not even close to the standard, but it's not his fault that he was picked... Bevo getting too comfortable in the seat again
 

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Prediction Changes Rd 13 vs Hoks


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