Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[bzparkes]

Not many clubs can follow the Geelong strategy without bottoming out. It’s amazing they’ve been able to do it for so long.

They're the only club that continuously brings in older state league talent and aren't afraid to do it with earlier draft picks, whilst still bringing in young players, but they can do this because they're already set up to contend.

It's amazing other teams don't do this, considering the success Geelong has had with this method.

 

[Lando_]

They're the only club that continuously brings in older state league talent and aren't afraid to do it with earlier draft picks, whilst still bringing in young players, but they can do this because they're already set up to contend.

It's amazing other teams don't do this, considering the success Geelong has had with this method.

Probably need to get systems, structures, development and culture right before clubs can use this method. And they certainly have over a long period of time.

 

[bzparkes]

Probably need to get systems, structures, development and culture right before clubs can use this method. And they certainly have over a long period of time.

Oh for sure. Not something that can be implemented for a bottom team, as they need the young talent as the foundation of the side.

Will be interesting to see what they do when Dangerfield, Camron and Stewart retire. Can't see them dropping down the ladder too far though.

 

[deck]

Pies threw all their eggs into the one basket in an attemp to snag this year's flag,

As opposed to Carlton who are to scared to do that and double down on the draft for the same rinse and repeat and go nowhere. I know what I'd rather my team be doing.

 

[Hamingja]

Will be interesting to see what they do when Dangerfield, Camron and Stewart retire. Can't see them dropping down the ladder too far though.

On paper our list is in as good a spot age wise as it has been in 10+ years but you just can't replace what Dangerfield did on Friday night.

We will have to go hard at a key forward from somewhere else once Cameron is finished. The list is otherwise reasonably balanced.

 

[windyhill]

Pies will use free agency to their advantage, not a shadow of doubt.

 

[Mr Meow]

We only gave up one of our own first rounders for Cameron - the other two first rounders came courtesy of trading Kelly to WCE 12 months earlier. A fantastic bit of trading in hindsight.

Yep, Cameron was only made possible via astute second round drafting of Kelly in 2017.

Smith we took a gamble with and on field it's paid off. Those situations are not going to present themselves often.

Even with Dangerfield's free agent status we got him for unders - but the same happened in reverse with Ablett. Prime Ablett in 2011-2016 would've been a handy player to keep around.

 

[Tugga27]

Pies will use free agency to their advantage, not a shadow of doubt.

Too late for next year though.

 

[Blues_Man]

As opposed to Carlton who are to scared to do that and double down on the draft for the same rinse and repeat and go nowhere. I know what I'd rather my team be doing.

Enjoy your rebuild

 

[deck]

Enjoy your rebuild

What rebuild?

 

[Humblebob]

Enjoy your rebuild

Rebuilds are for minnows mate, good clubs retool on the run

 

[Blues_Man]

So many delusional pies fans

 

[10571z]

Every year the media build up teams like this only for them to not win it. Just adds to the story of the season.

 

[My Tilly]

They're the only club that continuously brings in older state league talent and aren't afraid to do it with earlier draft picks, whilst still bringing in young players, but they can do this because they're already set up to contend.

It's amazing other teams don't do this, considering the success Geelong has had with this method.

The foundation of this is the VFL program. It simply wouldn't work out without having good development which deploys the football philosophies of the senior coaching staff.
Very often, those mature recruits have to bide their time in the reserves like everyone else and tick off all required boxes during their VFL apprenticeship.

Where I think Geelong gain an advantage is ensuring most recruited players are trialed in various positions in the VFL before coming into the senior team. They need to be multi-tasked. This is where the recruitment team identify 'speculative' types at the draft. Odd-ball selections who don't necessary stand out but have shown an ability to adapt in varying playing positions throughout junior football.

 

[markm106]

There’s a few good free agents next year. The lies would want to snag players like Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

25

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

. Pat Voss also a sneaky UFA. Pies would have to get busy to stay up the top of the ladder.

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

3-5 record over the last 8 games signs were there.

Fell off the cliff 2 months ago.

Saw the same with Hawthorn in 2016.

Arguably, Collingwood's list is in a worse spot now than Hawthorn's in 2016, after the threepeat.

Here's the list of players on Hawthorn's list in 2016 who were 27 or older:

Sam Mitchell
Shaun Burgoyne
Josh Gibson
Luke Hodge
Jordan Lewis
Jarryd Roughead
Matthew Spangher
Paul Puopolo
Grant Birchall
James Frawley
Isaac Smith
Ben Stratton

That's 12.

In comparison to Collingwood now, which has 22.

In 2016, Ben McEvoy, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels, Brendan Whitecross, and Brad Hill were all 26 or younger. Hawthorn also had some promising youngsters, some (James Sicily, Blake Hardwick) who panned out better than others (Tim O'Brien).

The biggest issue was the midfield. And the Hawks ended up patching that hole by bringing in a couple of midfielders (Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara) and send Gunston to the back line for a bit.

This allowed the Hawks to remain a reasonably competitive side. It bought time for the youth to develop, more young players (Day, Newcombe, etc) to be drafted, and other players (Impey, Amon) to be lured across.

With Collingwood having 22 players over 27, that basically means roughly half the list will retire over the next four seasons, or thereabouts.

The option isn't there to patch things up by overpaying for a midfielder or two, like Hawthorn did.

So either Collingwood will need to trade in around 22 players over the next four years, or draft 22 players.

 

[Eddie Van Halen]

So many delusional pies fans

Delusional is thinking you were going to do anything this season after being smacked by the Tigers in round 1.
ANOTHER rebuild incoming too.
Heck, your last 30 years has been delusional!

 

[Ugene41]

Arguably, Collingwood's list is in a worse spot now than Hawthorn's in 2016, after the threepeat.

Here's the list of players on Hawthorn's list in 2016 who were 27 or older:

Sam Mitchell
Shaun Burgoyne
Josh Gibson
Luke Hodge
Jordan Lewis
Jarryd Roughead
Matthew Spangher
Paul Puopolo
Grant Birchall
James Frawley
Isaac Smith
Ben Stratton

That's 12.

In comparison to Collingwood now, which has 22.

In 2016, Ben McEvoy, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels, Brendan Whitecross, and Brad Hill were all 26 or younger. Hawthorn also had some promising youngsters, some (James Sicily, Blake Hardwick) who panned out better than others (Tim O'Brien).

The biggest issue was the midfield. And the Hawks ended up patching that hole by bringing in a couple of midfielders (Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara) and send Gunston to the back line for a bit.

This allowed the Hawks to remain a reasonably competitive side. It bought time for the youth to develop, more young players (Day, Newcombe, etc) to be drafted, and other players (Impey, Amon) to be lured across.

With Collingwood having 22 players over 27, that basically means roughly half the list will retire over the next four seasons, or thereabouts.

The option isn't there to patch things up by overpaying for a midfielder or two, like Hawthorn did.

So either Collingwood will need to trade in around 22 players over the next four years, or draft 22 players.

27 and older? Players haven't even hit their prime yet at 27.

Players are still having career best seasons at 32+ and can play into their mid 30s. Just look at Jamie Elliott, Gunston, Jezza, Zorko etc.

The other difference is that the Hawks didn't have a 22 year old generational player in 2016 like Nick. If Hawks had a 22 year old Franklin then, I'd doubt they'd be considering having to rebuild.

 

[dean33]

Geez, bobby Hill calling legend of Collingwood Tony Shaw a clown.
Fly has his work cut out

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

27 and older? Players haven't even hit their prime yet at 27.

Yeah, and 16 of those players are 29 and older.

Which means a good chunk of Collingwood's list is likely to retire in the next three or four seasons.

And in three or four seasons, the six players who were 27 or 28 this year will be in their 30s and thinking about hanging up their boots one last time.

So over the next three or four seasons, Collingwood's going to need to replace just under half of its list.

The other difference is that the Hawks didn't have a 22 year old generational player in 2016 like Nick. If Hawks had a 22 year old Franklin then, I'd doubt they'd be considering having to rebuild.

So you'll have a generational player in an old squad where most of the players are cooked and ready to retire. Like Harley Reid at West Coast.

Or you'll have a generational player in a very young squad. Like Ablett at the Gold Coast in 2011.

Players are still having career best seasons at 32+ and can play into their mid 30s. Just look at Jamie Elliott, Gunston, Jezza, Zorko etc.

Yeah, and Gunston's teammates from that threepeat squad?

Oh that's right, they're all retired. Luke Breust was the last of them, and he gave a few good performances as a sub with limited minutes.

But the players who play their best footy in their 30s are the exception, rather than the norm.

 

[Fadge]

Really interesting to watch what happens with Collingwood's 30 year olds from here.

All of them listed with ages next year:

• Pendlebury (38) obviously still good enough but if he starts getting calves then the end could come fast
• Howe (35) wasn't good tonight but still had an ok year when fit
• Sidebottom (35) had a great year, seems like plenty in the tank
• Cox (35) is presumably just about done but isn't best 22 anyway
• Elliott (33) has kicked 60, still seems to have heaps in the tank
• Mihocek (33) still ok but probably a bad time to be out of contract
• Mitchell (32) is presumably done and not best 22
• Hoskin-Elliott (32) already retired but was out of the side anyway
• Crisp (32) still going pretty well
• Membrey (31) had a solid season
• McStay (30) isn't exactly setting the world on fire
• Cameron (30) is still top quality, has years left
• Moore (30) not necessarily his best season but still quality
• De Goey (30) needs to find a way to get on the park consistently

Any opinions on how they'll go from here?

Contend for a flag again in 2026, because that's what they do more often than not.

 

[Fadge]

They are “lucky” the bank a lot of early wins and were able to coast into the finals. If they start slow next year like they did in 2024 going to be an uphill battle.

How were the Pies 'lucky' to bank the early wins?

Do tell.

 

[Ugene41]

Yeah, and 16 of those players are 29 and older.

Which means a good chunk of Collingwood's list is likely to retire in the next three or four seasons.

And in three or four seasons, the six players who were 27 or 28 this year will be in their 30s and thinking about hanging up their boots one last time.

So over the next three or four seasons, Collingwood's going to need to replace just under half of its list.



So you'll have a generational player in an old squad where most of the players are cooked and ready to retire. Like Harley Reid at West Coast.

Or you'll have a generational player in a very young squad. Like Ablett at the Gold Coast in 2011.


Yeah, and Gunston's teammates from that threepeat squad?

Oh that's right, they're all retired. Luke Breust was the last of them, and he gave a few good performances as a sub with limited minutes.

But the players who play their best footy in their 30s are the exception, rather than the norm.

You realise turning over half a list in 4 seasons is a completely normal thing to do right? If your best 22 looks the same as it does 4 years ago then it's pretty clear you haven't improved.

Look at Geelong's 2022 premiership team and only 11 players are the same as their 2025 prelim side. They've turned over half their best 22 in 3 seasons and still remain very much in contention.

Our 2023 premiership team had only 9 players from the 2018 grand final team. We effectively retired/turned over older players like Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Varcoe, Greenwood, Mayne, Goldsack, Josh Thomas etc with no issues.

Just counting the number of players over whatever arbitrary age in a team is such lazy analysis. It doesn't take into account which older players are just role players that are easily replaced vs genuine matchwinners that the team still relies on. For us this year, it's really only Elliott that will be difficult to replace in the next 2 years from a match contribution perspective. Of course we will always miss Pendles' onfield coaching, but that's a feature not a bug of his old age.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Look at Geelong's 2022 premiership team and only 11 players are the same as their 2025 prelim side. They've turned over half their best 22 in 3 seasons and still remain very much in contention.

This is an interesting comparison and definitely what Collingwood need to stay competitive. It was actually 12 played in the 2022 GF with 11 new. The breakdown for Geelong is:

3 already on their list (Holmes, Dempsey and Neale).
3 young draftees (O'Sullivan, Humphries and Clark)
4 ultra cheap mature recruits (Mannagh, Mullin, Martin and Bowes)
1 gun recruit (Smith)

If you're good enough you can pick up a bunch of solid contributors in cheap ways and you can definitely get a gun recruit or two.

Are there players of the quality of Holmes, Dempsey and Neale already on Collingwood's list though? I guess time will tell.

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

Look at Geelong's 2022 premiership team and only 11 players are the same as their 2025 prelim side. They've turned over half their best 22 in 3 seasons and still remain very much in contention.

Nice attempt at a bait-and-switch there.

Clearly, I'm not talking about Collingwood needing to change half of its best 22.

I'm talking about just under half of Collingwood's entire senior list being on the verge of retirement, which is a very different proposition.

That's assuming none of Collingwood's players who are under 27 leave or are traded.

As it stands, Collingwood has picks 34, 52, 64, and 70. So not a great draft hand there.

And with Tasmania coming in, there's likely to be some heavily compromised drafts in the coming years.

Collingwood doesn't have a great deal of trade currency unless it trades out its under 27 players. But that's likely to trade ond under 27 player for another (or a pick), which doesn't solve your problem.

Along with a list that's very top-heavy age wise, Collingwood also lacks players in the 23 to 26 age group.

Just two 26 year olds (Josh Daicos and Perryman). Just two 25 year olds (Quaynor and Hill). Just two 24 year olds (McCreery and Dean). Just three 23 year olds (McCrae, Parker, and Steele).

In other words, it's a list that skews old, with a lot of young players, and not a lot in the middle.

Let's take a look at how old Collingwood's 27-and-over squad from 2025 will be in 3 years:

Scott Pendlebury 40
Jeremy Howe 38
Steele Sidebottom 37
Mason Cox 37
Jamie Elliott 36
Brody Mihocek 35
Tom Mitchell 35
Will Hoskin-Elliott 35
Jack Crisp 34
Tim Membrey 34
Daniel McStay 33
Darcy Cameron 33
Darcy Moore 32
Jordan De Goey 32
Oleg Markov 32
Brayden Maynard 32
Billy Frampton 31
Dan Houston 31
Lachie Sullivan 30
Ash Johnson 30
Lachlan Schultz 30
Patrick Lipinski 30

Again, I suspect many, and probably most, of those players won't be around in three years.

So either Collingwood's going to need to bring in nearly 20 players through free agency over the next three years.

Or.

You'll need to try to rebuild through the draft.