Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2025 edition

[Mr Meow]

Yep, or a repeat Richmond dynasty experience, only with 6 years worth of draft picks in just 2 drafts. That netted 3 flags and a minor.

I mean that's something you can hope for during your last years. If I were you I'd just take a round the world trip for the next 10 years and forget football exists.

 

[Orange crush]

I like to look at the b and f top 10

Geelong
GWS
North
Eagles
Bulldogs
Lions
Blues
Pies

All have problems

1 Jesse hogan
=2 Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield (66)
4 Connor Idun (59)
5 Brent Daniels (50)
6 Jack Buckley (49)
7 Toby Greene (45)
=8 Toby Bedford and Harry Perryman (41)
10 Harry Himmelberg (40)

Why does this concern you?

Hogan just turned 30 and Toby/Whits are 31. Wouldn’t you expect players in their prime to do well?

 

[Mr Meow]

=2 Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield (66)
4 Connor Idun (59)
5 Brent Daniels (50)
6 Jack Buckley (49)
7 Toby Greene (45)
=8 Toby Bedford and Harry Perryman (41)
10 Harry Himmelberg (40)

Why does this concern you?

Hogan just turned 30 and Toby/Whits are 31. Wouldn’t you expect players in their prime to do well?

The post didn't make sense for Geelong's top 10 BnF either.

I have a suspicion he might've just guessed based on looking at a couple of star veterans for some teams? Then obviously added a couple of cellar dwellars.

 

[Orange crush]

The post didn't make sense for Geelong's top 10 BnF either.

I have a suspicion he might've just guessed based on looking at a couple of star veterans for some teams? Then obviously added a couple of cellar dwellars.

To be fair WillHayward is generally a good poster …. Maybe just thought a few players were older than they really are

 

[Orange crush]

Usually, yes.

For Geelong's BnF (late career veterans bolded):

1. Max Holmes - 164 votes
2. Zach Guthrie - 120 votes
3. Jeremy Cameron - 118 votes
4. Tom Stewart - 117 votes
5. Tyson Stengle - 107 votes
6. Gryan Miers - 95 votes
7. Ollie Dempsey - 73 votes
8. Ollie Henry - 69 votes
9. Brad Close - 66 votes
10. Patrick Dangerfield - 65 votes

It's probably the least amount of veterans we've had in the top 10 for a decade, or maybe even Scott's entire reign.

Very similar distribution to the giants

 

[Mr Meow]

Very similar distribution to the giants

Yeah the Giants to me look like they have a great age profile, as they have had for a while now. I'd be expecting them to play finals most of the next 5 seasons at a bare minimum. Yes there will be important players to replace, but there is still a platform of quality otherwise.

 

[Orange crush]

Yeah the Giants to me look like they have a great age profile, as they have had for a while now. I'd be expecting them to play finals most of the next 5 seasons at a bare minimum.

I will admit that losing Taranto, hopper, Perryman and cumming left a hole in that mid-age group, but that leaves room for guys like leake, stone, Darcy, Gothard, Thomas, Rowston snd muff to get opportunities

 

[master bate]

1 Jesse hogan
=2 Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield (66)
4 Connor Idun (59)
5 Brent Daniels (50)
6 Jack Buckley (49)
7 Toby Greene (45)
=8 Toby Bedford and Harry Perryman (41)
10 Harry Himmelberg (40)

Why does this concern you?

Hogan just turned 30 and Toby/Whits are 31. Wouldn’t you expect players in their prime to do well?

I'm not worried at all about GWS but Hogan, Greene and Whitfield might be their 3 most dangerous attacking players. Can probably rejig the mids/half backs to cover Whitfield but could do with another classy user coming through. Cadman looms as the logical Hogan replacement but we'll see how he goes. Toby isn't someone you can generally replace.

There's certainly a window now for the next 2-3 years that GWS could have to reset after if they can't get it done (but that's true of pretty much every side).

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Annual Geelong post.

I'm a little surprised we're a clear second on the voting here. I mean i count 5 over 32s they're as actually required players.

We're not young but I would say we'd be mid pack in the convo

 

[master bate]

I actually like what Richmond have done

Not many teams truly gut their list and bottom out

Sure it will be a lot of shit years but they will be better for it long term than middling out

I prefer a deep cut than mucking around but I'd be terrified Richmond have gone too hard and condemned themselves to years of losing big which generally sees the coach sacked (or multiple coaches), a bunch of young players physically and mentally worn out and then board, sponsors etc all lose faith and compounding problems.

More like Hawthorn (under Mitchell at least) or Freo than going full North.

I'm still shocked Richmond took so many picks in one year rather than space them out and that they didn't add some veterans from elsewhere just to bring some fresh leadership and to take some hits for the kids.

I'd much rather finish 3rd last winning 7 games, play the 5 kids who are ready and have some fun than finish dead last winning 3 games, throw in 10 kids half of whom aren't physically ready and cop a lot of beltings.

If they get really lucky with health they might not be that bad but there's a chance this goes really bad in a hurry.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The Pies are an entire year on average older than the next oldest list (Brisbane). It's the oldest list in the history of the AFL and something even crazier is that their expected best 22 has a an average age of 29.2

This thread seems like a battle for 2nd place taking that into account.

They're a year older than we were in 2022. Our premiership side was like 28 which was mind boggling at the time.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Lol, there are dead set 2 players under 25 and none who are going to be greats. Not actually that tough to spin that team as old, as they were the oldest team in the finals, lol.

They have shown more than any of the young players u so confidently back to take you to your next 3peat!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Dogs profile might not be the oldest but their key players in defence and mids are getting on. Hense the recent drafting choices. Could fall with injuries or in general decently quick for a bit

Yeah I don't reckon the dogs have the worst profile getting around

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It's obligatory to mention Geelong in these threads but at the same time we all know you will find some young stars and stay in contention.

Neale, Smith, Dempsey, Ollie Henry for starters.

Maybe, but last year for example track watchers could see Neale and Dempsey coming a mile away. Humphries the minute he started you could tell would be something special.

This year, Smith aside, the only guy coming through is probably Knevitt and he's a maybe. Connor O'Sullivan could step into the backline but it's a bit early for him. Draftees Hofmann and Polkinghorne look like the can be players but not in 2025.

Unlike this time last year the organic growth isn't obvious

 

[Mr Meow]

Maybe, but last year for example track watchers could see Neale and Dempsey coming a mile away. Humphries the minute he started you could tell would be something special.

This year, Smith aside, the only guy coming through is probably Knevitt and he's a maybe. Connor O'Sullivan could step into the backline but it's a bit early for him. Draftees Hofmann and Polkinghorne look like the can be players but not in 2025.

Unlike this time last year the organic growth isn't obvious

It's even more obvious. Because those players recently moved into the best 22 have serious upside. You don't need to keep adding 4 or 5 every season.

Improvement from Holmes, Bruhn, Dempsey, Neale, Henry, Humphries, Conway, SDK, Clark, Conway, Mullin and co is the next order of business. I'd include Smith but after a long lay off, it's hard to measure where he should be tracking.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Pies 21-25 age group is horrendous if you take out Hill and N.Daicos. this is not rookies these are the guys that should be mainstays in your 22 by that age if there any good. They will need to contend this year and next before the wheels will fall off.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

It's even more obvious. Because those players recently moved into the best 22 have serious upside. You don't need to keep adding 4 or 5 every season.

Improvement from Holmes, Bruhn, Dempsey, Neale, Henry, Humphries, Conway, SDK, Clark, Conway, Mullin and co is the next order of business. I'd include Smith but after a long lay off, it's hard to measure where he should be tracking.

You guys are not as bad as some other teams in fact I'd consider it ok the 25 and under group.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

One thing I noticed in 2024, and I could be wrong, is that Dangerfield is still so important for you guys. He provides a lot of spark and power in the midfield and without him being there, when he was injured and such, Geelong's midfield just didn't look or feel as threatening.

I know he was not a big factor in 2024 either but Hawkins is a big loss. Geelong's forward line will miss him a lot.

They won't IMO, Gives Neale a good run at it and he could be ready to emerge this year. Their smalls are as good as any in the comp and they have added Jack Martin who if he can stay on the park will add quite alot of value. Smith in that midfield offsets Dangerfield if he spends more time forward. The team is still good enough to play finals until there veterans drop off which hasn't really happened as of yet.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

We are about to make the big jump now

Much better than middling out that we used to do

The amount of talent we have on the list now is better than I’ve ever seen

It's whether Clarko still has it in him to plot a game style that plays to your talent's strengths. Can't just win games on talent alone.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I'm a little surprised we're a clear second on the voting here. I mean i count 5 over 32s they're as actually required players.

We're not young but I would say we'd be mid pack in the convo

Mid pack yes, I wouldn't even consider Geelong as in trouble ever until we see clear evidence that they really are in trouble. You guys are in a category with arguably Sydney in that you find ways to be competitive year after year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Mid pack yes, I wouldn't even consider Geelong as in trouble ever until we see clear evidence that they really are in trouble. You guys are in a category with arguably Sydney in that you find ways to be competitive year after year.

Take nothing for granted though. I can only really see organic growth taking us forward next year, Bailey Smith is handy but not ground breaking

 

[PhatBoy]

No team has done it the way Richmond has just done with so many quality picks in a deep draft, followed by likely 2 x top 5 picks. It is territory unchartered, so what has happened to North or any other team is not very relevant. This is arguably closer to GWS when they started up. They were contending in their 5th season.

*high picks.

You have no idea what their quality is.

 

[PhatBoy]

This is a genuine question because no one follows drafting and under age competitions and combines less than I do.

What do they use to define a ‘deep’ draft?

Like if everyone is playing really competitive football at carnival and there are 30 players that are all really vying for a top 10 spot, does that then make it a ‘deep’ draft?

If so, couldn’t it just be equally possible that the crop is shit, but all equally so?

 

[Freomaniac]

Not too concerned with the Blues. Some senior players like Newman, Docherty, McGovern etc will be missed in coming years but the core of our team is still in a good spot. Should have 3-5 years of good footy from most of this group. Losing TDK would change the outlook significantly but from all reports he should sign on long term soon.

Cripps - 29
Curnow - 27
Mckay - 27
Weitering -27
Cerra - 25
TDK - 25
Walsh - 24
E.Hollands - 22

Well that's the key right there.

I hate the view when players turn 30, they instantly decline as duds.

 

[Northernsoul74]

I think the drop off at my team the Dogs could be coming quickly and could be brutal.