Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[Muddiemoose]

Richmond had been pretty ordinary post covid.

2021 a 9 win season
2022 a 13 win season
2023 a 10 win season

And then the wheels fell off in 2024, and all the B grade guys in the prime have jumped ship.

Many said the same thing about the Pies list at end of 2021, too reliant on the same old crew.

But Pies have gone 16 win, 18 win and 12 win since then.

And now we are entering another season with no one even looking remotely close to pushing those vets out

That is and should be the concern for pies fans especially when the youth are still struggling to push out role players like Markov

 

[doppleganger]

And now we are entering another season with no one even looking remotely close to pushing those vets out

That is and should be the concern for pies fans especially when the youth are still struggling to push out role players like Markov

??

In 2024, Pies had 10 players play more than 20 games and only 2 were over 30.

Markov isn't even on the 2025 main list.

The Pies had less of the 2018 PF team on the 2024 list than the Tigers did.

In 23-24 it has been J. Daicos x 2, N.Daicos x 2, Cameron and Mitchell with top5 best and fairest finishes who weren't part of the 2018 PF team. Supported by Sidey, Crisp and Pendles who just keep on keeping on (although Pendles dropped in 23-24 BnF after finishing top 3 14 times from 2007 to 2022, he was "only" 5th and 6th).

Pies core u30 players heading into 2025 provided below. A pretty balanced group with strong representation across all the ground and 8 AA squad players from 2022-24, noting only 2 were part of the 2018 PF team.

Defense - Moore, Maynard, Quaynor, Houston
Mids - Cameron, Daicos x2, DeGoey, Perryman, Lipinski
Forwards - McStay, McReery, Schultz, Hill

A nice strong senior core to do the heavy lifting, with kids development supported by quality veterans.

At Richmond it has been same old blokes finishing top5 in 23-24 BnF - Rioli x2, Vlaustin x2, D.Martin, Nankervis, Broad, Bolton x2, Baker. The only new player to squeeze into the top5 of their BnF that wasn't part of 2018 peak Richmond team has been Taranto. And now they head into 2025 having to replace half of em.

Pies have been regenerating and have a new quality core, Richmond have a bunch of kids and veterans but forgot you need a senior core to win games of footy.

 

[Arr0w]

??

In 2024, Pies had 10 players play more than 20 games and only 2 were over 30.

Markov isn't even on the 2025 main list.

The Pies had less of the 2018 PF team on the 2024 list than the Tigers did.

In 23-24 it has been J. Daicos x 2, N.Daicos x 2, Cameron and Mitchell with top5 best and fairest finishes who weren't part of the 2018 PF team. Supported by Sidey, Crisp and Pendles who just keep on keeping on (although Pendles dropped in 23-24 BnF after finishing top 3 14 times from 2007 to 2022, he was "only" 5th and 6th).

Pies core u30 players heading into 2025 provided below. A pretty balanced group with strong representation across all the ground and 8 AA squad players from 2022-24, noting only 2 were part of the 2018 PF team.

Defense - Moore, Maynard, Quaynor, Houston
Mids - Cameron, Daicos x2, DeGoey, Perryman, Lipinski
Forwards - McStay, McReery, Schultz, Hill

A nice strong senior core to do the heavy lifting, with kids development supported by quality veterans.

At Richmond it has been same old blokes finishing top5 in 23-24 BnF - Rioli x2, Vlaustin x2, D.Martin, Nankervis, Broad, Bolton x2, Baker. The only new player to squeeze into the top5 of their BnF that wasn't part of 2018 peak Richmond team has been Taranto. And now they head into 2025 having to replace half of em.

Pies have been regenerating and have a new quality core, Richmond have a bunch of kids and veterans but forgot you need a senior core to win games of footy.

Not sure why you would be using 20 games as the cut off point, but it was 4 players at 30+(Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Crisp, WHE) that played 20 or more games.

Other players 30+ like Howe, Cox, Elliott, Mihocek, Mitchell, would likely have played more games if not injured, their unavailability exposed the level of talent in your youth, which contributed to your finishing position

By about half way through next year, you will have 12 players at 30+ and while not all will deteriorate in output and or depart, at least 10 would be selected each week if fit in 2025

 

[adammania9]

Pies have no youth outside of Daicos. VFL team gets blown off the park every week* and they've gone all in on bringing in more senior players. Regardless of what happens in 2025 the cliff will hit them quickly.

Very consistent with the last 15 years of VFL results. Would you like to know what our AFL side has gotten up to in the same 15 years?

 

[adammania9]

Agreed, I think his best is largely underrated

Perryman, similarly underrated but didn't cost draft capital. I'd play him as a midfielder

Houston was a good pick up and better than what they had last year in Markov, Quaynor, and Noble, but was it really a need for what they paid

Undoubtedly - Noble was contracted - granted - but he wanted out and he and Richards miraculously put us in the position of dealing with Port and GC already. You aren't going to turn down the opportunity to upgrade Noble whom wants out to Dan Houston, who is instantly our second best player after Nick Daicos. Quaynor is a proficient shut down defender but he isn't an elite rebounder. He also had an ordinary year. We all love Markov but he's apart of the group of players that played well above themselves at the right time in a premiership year. Trading Noble and not acquiring Houston - the difference to our best side is stark given we are trying to contend again.

Regarding your previous post about Perryman and Houston setting back the rebuild - that's disputable. They are 26 and 27 years old and will feature in our best sides for several years. They'll cushion the blow of losing so many 32+ year olds down the line and prevent a catastrophic downfall that other clubs have experienced and seriously struggled to get out of. Perryman came at no trade cost, and Houston effectively cost us Noble, a mid-draft downgrade and a future first which may be used on F/S McGuane anyway.

 

[Arr0w]

Undoubtedly - Noble was contracted - granted - but he wanted out and he and Richards miraculously put us in the position of dealing with Port and GC already. You aren't going to turn down the opportunity to upgrade Noble whom wants out to Dan Houston, who is instantly our second best player after Nick Daicos. Quaynor is a proficient shut down defender but he isn't an elite rebounder. He also had an ordinary year. We all love Markov but he's apart of the group of players that played well above themselves at the right time in a premiership year. Trading Noble and not acquiring Houston - the difference to our best side is stark given we are trying to contend again.

Regarding your previous post about Perryman and Houston setting back the rebuild - that's disputable. They are 26 and 27 years old and will feature in our best sides for several years. They'll cushion the blow of losing so many 32+ year olds down the line and prevent a catastrophic downfall that other clubs have experienced and seriously struggled to get out of. Perryman came at no trade cost, and Houston effectively cost us Noble, a mid-draft downgrade and a future first which may be used on F/S McGuane anyway.

I don't see Houston and Perryman setting back your rejuvenation, it's a culmination of list management decisions over the last 2 years that could have that impact

As I stated previously, it's understandable that you are rolling the dice one more time

 

[doppleganger]

Undoubtedly - Noble was contracted - granted - but he wanted out and he and Richards miraculously put us in the position of dealing with Port and GC already. You aren't going to turn down the opportunity to upgrade Noble whom wants out to Dan Houston, who is instantly our second best player after Nick Daicos. Quaynor is a proficient shut down defender but he isn't an elite rebounder. He also had an ordinary year. We all love Markov but he's apart of the group of players that played well above themselves at the right time in a premiership year. Trading Noble and not acquiring Houston - the difference to our best side is stark given we are trying to contend again.

Not sure about the bolded. It is great to add a quality player, but still think DeGoey/Moore are first in line after Naicos.

Re italics, we need to improve the team if we want to win a premiership, simply hoping a kid steps up to fill Noble's role wouldn't improve the team.

Regarding your previous post about Perryman and Houston setting back the rebuild - that's disputable. They are 26 and 27 years old and will feature in our best sides for several years. They'll cushion the blow of losing so many 32+ year olds down the line and prevent a catastrophic downfall that other clubs have experienced and seriously struggled to get out of. Perryman came at no trade cost, and Houston effectively cost us Noble, a mid-draft downgrade and a future first which may be used on F/S McGuane anyway.

Houston was younger than Noble.
Adding 26/27 year olds to the list is hardly forgoing your future. They make an immediate impact and you get the peak football years of players proven to be quality AFL level players.

Or you go to the draft, develop a kid for a few years just to hope they can be as good as Houston but the reality is most won't be.

And in this draft we have gone key position, knowing that we most likely won't see much return from them for a few years, and hence grabbing 30 year old Membrey to immediately improve the 2025 list depth.

 

[Mr Meow]

Not sure about the bolded. It is great to add a quality player, but still think DeGoey/Moore are first in line after Naicos.

Re italics, we need to improve the team if we want to win a premiership, simply hoping a kid steps up to fill Noble's role wouldn't improve the team.

Houston was younger than Noble.
Adding 26/27 year olds to the list is hardly forgoing your future. They make an immediate impact and you get the peak football years of players proven to be quality AFL level players.

Or you go to the draft, develop a kid for a few years just to hope they can be as good as Houston but the reality is most won't be.

And in this draft we have gone key position, knowing that we most likely won't see much return from them for a few years, and hence grabbing 30 year old Membrey to immediately improve the 2025 list depth.

JDG is a big one.

If he can work through his injuries and have a 2023 type season I think you guys will contend. If we assume Mitchell is cooked, there just isn't enough support and complimentary qualities in midfield for Daicos and Pendles otherwise.

De Goey can also be damaging up forward. He seems to be a bit of a barometer for the Pies.

 

[doppleganger]

JDG is a big one.

If he can work through his injuries and have a 2023 type season I think you guys will contend. If we assume Mitchell is cooked, there just isn't enough support and complimentary qualities in midfield for Daicos and Pendles otherwise.

De Goey can also be damaging up forward. He seems to be a bit of a barometer for the Pies.

Yep, JDG is def the barometer. In 2024 he was well below his best and the team was significantly poorer as a result.

It was a combination of injuries and just not working hard enough without the ball.

Hope we do a 50/50 type forward midfield split for JDG to manage him. Give some midfield time to McReery, Perryman, Allen.

If Titch gets himself fit can still influence, he was huge in 2023, but yes it is more of a bonus with him.

 

[Pistol Night]

Yep, JDG is def the barometer. In 2024 he was well below his best and the team was significantly poorer as a result.

It was a combination of injuries and just not working hard enough without the ball.

Hope we do a 50/50 type forward midfield split for JDG to manage him. Give some midfield time to McReery, Perryman, Allen.

If Titch gets himself fit can still influence, he was huge in 2023, but yes it is more of a bonus with him.

DeGoey 2023 prelim mode is needed

 

[doppleganger]

DeGoey 2023 prelim mode is needed

Or DeGoey 2018 prelim mode.

 

[Pistol Night]

Or DeGoey 2018 prelim mode.

Just need his groins to survive the home and away and strip club seasons before September

 

[Cyclops]

Just need his groins to survive the home and away and strip club seasons before September

So low impact lap dances? Maybe groping sessions (consensual if course) in the pool instead of on the dance floor?

Poor old JDG has run himself ragged for us, I think his ligaments aren't made for a full time midfield role.

I like him at high half forward. He can rip open tge centre square as a treat but needs to stick around 50 most of the time.

 

[dazzledavey36]

Its quite funny that all your Blues supporters are obsessed with Schultz. He won a game for us but had hamstring problems and missed a lot of games.
When we got our structure back at the end of the year he finished the season off really well.

Pies recruiters know what they are doing, they are recruiting players who fit our team, recruiting through the draft is a crap shoot

Lol he missed 3 games this year and still able to play 20 games for the year. Prior to joining Collingwood, in the years he was with Fremantle he's played 23, 23, 20 and 17 games

Saying he missed ''alot of games'' is a bigger stretch then the Flemington.

 

[dazzledavey36]

JDG is a big one.

If he can work through his injuries and have a 2023 type season I think you guys will contend. If we assume Mitchell is cooked, there just isn't enough support and complimentary qualities in midfield for Daicos and Pendles otherwise.

De Goey can also be damaging up forward. He seems to be a bit of a barometer for the Pies.

The issue with Jordan DeGoey is that he's never played a full season of AFL footy. He's gotten close but soft tissue injuries' just get the better of him.

He'll be 29 next year coming off a year where he had bad groins which restricted his power and speed. I know he's been overseas in an attempt to get it all sorted but I still worry his body will let him down especially at that age.

Maybe being a full-time forward is the next best option?

 

[kreuze_missile]

Collingwood are set for the slide of all slides.

They are on the exact same trend line as the West Coast Eagles.

 

[HeathySure]

Lol he missed 3 games this year and still able to play 20 games for the year. Prior to joining Collingwood, in the years he was with Fremantle he's played 23, 23, 20 and 17 games

Saying he missed ''alot of games'' is a bigger stretch then the Flemington.

what is your point?

 

[dazzledavey36]

what is your point?

That you're wrong. He didn't ''miss alot of games'' as you made it out to be. You're trying to justify why he had a poor year last year. Missing 3 games out of a 23-game season certainly wasn't one of them.

 

[markm106]

I’m not sure they have enough in the list to scrape another gag out. Will require a bit of luck with injuries and that includes JDG and Mitchell. Although Mitchell could be just about done. Can they get full or almost full seasons out of the likes of Elliott, Howe and Mihocek? Sidey and Pendles getting to the very pointy end.
Houston is a very good pick up. Perryman is a decent player but not sure he’s moving the needle. They’d want to be going hard for someone like LDU as a FA.
Naicos is a generational talent. But the rest of the youth is a bit meh. They’ll be hoping McGaune is elite given the lack of recent draft picks.

 

[HeathySure]

That you're wrong. He didn't ''miss alot of games'' as you made it out to be. You're trying to justify why he had a poor year last year. Missing 3 games out of a 23-game season certainly wasn't one of them.

He had a poor year? That is your opinion. He was good when we most of our forward line back which is why he was head hunted. Very happy to have him in the side.

We are lucky we dont have a great list destroyed by a terrible team culture and coach like the demons though. Fancy having the best list of the 2020s and finishing 13th

 

[markm106]

He had a poor year? That is your opinion. He was good when we most of our forward line back which is why he was head hunted. Very happy to have him in the side.

We are lucky we dont have a great list destroyed by a terrible team culture and coach like the demons though. Fancy having the best list of the 2020s and finishing 13th

Not sure there’s too much point in defending Schultz. He didn’t have a good year. Wasn’t ranked inside the top 70 general forwards I believe. Going by AFL player ratings. I definitely a better player than he played this year. And Collingwood would hope he gets back there.

 

[HeathySure]

Not sure there’s too much point in defending Schultz. He didn’t have a good year. Wasn’t ranked inside the top 70 general forwards I believe. Going by AFL player ratings. I definitely a better player than he played this year. And Collingwood would hope he gets back there.

The 2nd half of the season was a write off,. we were picking from 26 players at one stage for a few rounds and the rest of the forward line was decimated. When Cox and Elliott came back we beat the premiers who had everything to play for, probably should have beaten the Swans but lost by a point and thrashed the Dees. We will be fine with a normal injury type season and Schultz will be playing his role. Doesn't need to be a star, just keep the ball in the forward line and kick a few goals.

 

[bzparkes]

Was reading the article for this on afl.com.au - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1271407/ready-for-take-off-your-clubs-breakout-star-for-2025

When flicking through I noticed that every club had some young gun listed to break out this year, a mix 1st of 4th year players.

Then I got to Collingwood and they listed -checks notes- Bobby Hill as the player to breakout this year, at the ripe old age of 25, with a Norm Smith already to his name.

Now I think Bobby's a fantastic player and is fun to watch, but the other 'notable' breakout players were Beau McCreery, Ed Allen and Reef McInnes.

Now obviously they have Naicos, who just turned 22, and broke out in his first year but listing a 25yo as their main breakout player would definitely indicate that Collingwood are in real trouble in the next year or 2.

Of course, we're all aware that they've certainly gone all in with a very old list for a final shot at a flag but if they fail, they will likely be in bottom table purgatory for most of the next decade, due to having next to no young talent coming through.

Having said that, for Pies fans, is this a fair assumption, or are there simply unknown kids coming through that nobody knows about that you expect to develop into goo AFL players?

Aside from Collingwood supporters, who do you think will break out for your club, not named on this list?

 

[Lingsface]

I think although already all Australian and premiership player coming off a 46 goal year, Stengle will be seen throughout the competition as a star.

Less known players that could have a breakout year are SDK with position change, Lawson Humphries could be AA squad at his best this year.

 

[bzparkes]

I think although already all Australian and premiership player coming off a 46 goal year, Stengle will be seen throughout the competition as a star.

Less known players that could have a breakout year are SDK with position change, Lawson Humphries could be AA squad at his best this year.

Humphries could certainly make a big step up, looks the good.

Neale with more responsibility also.