List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade & FA 2024

[ElliottsMaggies]

You’re citing the Giants as an example to strengthen your argument, but it actually strengthens his.

The Giants were a really good team with great form, who still couldn’t progress because they didn’t have home ground advantage, a double chance or a week off.

When is a stronger team going to finish outside the top four? Might be waiting a while.

I'm really just trying to make the point that losing 2 games at this stage of the year isn't necessarily the disaster some are making it out to be.

Dee's & Port made top 4 & did nothing with it. Giants lost 10 games. Carlton lost 9. No team had ever been premiers after losing as many h&a games as we did just prior to the finals, apparently.

Some of these historical facts/stats are interesting, but they can also be challenged & not set in stone.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I'm really just trying to make the point that losing 2 games at this stage of the year isn't necessarily the disaster some are making it out to be.

Dee's & Port made top 4 & did nothing with it. Giants lost 10 games. Carlton lost 9. No team had ever been premiers after losing as many h&a games as we did just prior to the finals, apparently.

Some of these historical facts/stats are interesting, but they can also be challenged & not set in stone.

I was the main person on here challenging that stat about losses going into finals, first and foremost because we would still be finishing top two and getting home ground advantage through finals. Most teams losing two or more games in the last month wouldn’t still finish top two.

There was also the fact that we didn’t have as much to play for because of our likelihood of finishing top two, as well as Nick’s absence, and a hypothesis around training loads going into September.

Some stats are just cherry-picking; the top four history with regard to premiers is very solid, and has quite a bit of data behind it now.

 

[brysie]

The double chance shouldn’t be underestimated. There’s every possibility of finishing 5th and being streets ahead of 8th place, but being bundled out of finals by a freak performance by an opposition player or team. That exists equally between teams in the top 4, however at least the loser has a chance to redeem themselves the following week.

Sometimes it doesn’t play out that way, however without looking them up, I’m sure the statistics favour the week 1 top 4 loser over the week 1 bottom 4 winner. They’ve perhaps been skewed a little by the pre-finals bye, but I’d still back the top 4 teams more often than not.

 

[sr36]

I was the main person on here challenging that stat about losses going into finals, first and foremost because we would still be finishing top two and getting home ground advantage through finals. Most teams losing two or more games in the last month wouldn’t still finish top two.

There was also the fact that we didn’t have as much to play for because of our likelihood of finishing top two, as well as Nick’s absence, and a hypothesis around training loads going into September.

Some stats are just cherry-picking; the top four history with regard to premiers is very solid, and has quite a bit of data behind it now.

The history is actually the top 3. Noone has won from fourth since 1997. The best teams generally finish higher than 4th. Is it the system that beats that teams or that the lower ranked finalists aren't as good?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The history is actually the top 3. Noone has won from fourth since 1997. The best teams generally finish higher than 4th. Is it the system that beats that teams or that the lower ranked finalists aren't as good?

Presumably both.

Interesting stat re: teams finishing fourth, however as they could be separated by as little as a fraction of a percentage point, whereas the fourth and fifth teams are separated in much more practical terms going forward, I wouldn’t read too much into it. I would imagine the chances of winning out from third are pretty similar to that of fourth, unless there is a dominant team atop the ladder who they have to face in week 1.

 

[Jen2310]

The history is actually the top 3. Noone has won from fourth since 1997. The best teams generally finish higher than 4th. Is it the system that beats that teams or that the lower ranked finalists aren't as good?

Dees was 4th last year and lost both finals, and we won it from 1st
2022 we were 4th and lost wk 1, won, wk 2 and lost the prelim
Geelong won it from 1st
2021 - Lions were 4th (dees won it from 1st)
2020 - Geelong were 4th and lost the GF v richmond (richmond won it from 3rd)
2019 - richmond won it from 3rd, we were 4th
2018 - eagles won it from 2nd. We were 3rd. Hawks were 4th
2017 - richmond won it from 3rd.

Dogs the outlier in 2016, won it from 7th.

So reckon you are right. Its top 3.

 

[sr36]

Presumably both.

Interesting stat re: teams finishing fourth, however as they could be separated by as little as a fraction of a percentage point, whereas the fourth and fifth teams are separated in much more practical terms going forward, I wouldn’t read too much into it. I would imagine the chances of winning out from third are pretty similar to that of fourth, unless there is a dominant team atop the ladder who they have to face in week 1.

THe comp is a lot more even at the moment than it used to be. There's been periods where there was a big gap between the top two or 3 and the rest. Go back to 2009/10. I wouldn't read to much into any of it and with the end of season bye I definitely think if a team is good enough they can win the 4 in a row needed to take the flag from outside the top 4. It's just going to be rare that a team who is good enough finishes outside the top 4.

 

[sr36]

Dees was 4th last year and lost both finals, and we won it from 1st
2022 we were 4th and lost wk 1, won, wk 2 and lost the prelim
Geelong won it from 1st
2021 - Lions were 4th (dees won it from 1st)
2020 - Geelong were 4th and lost the GF v richmond (richmond won it from 3rd)
2019 - richmond won it from 3rd, we were 4th
2018 - eagles won it from 2nd. We were 3rd. Hawks were 4th
2017 - richmond won it from 3rd.

Dogs the outlier in 2016, won it from 7th.

So reckon you are right. Its top 3.

It's really easy to see on this.

They're listed by end of year ladder position, with the Premier asterixed.

AFL Tables - Ladders - Year by Year

 

[Jen2310]

It's really easy to see on this.

They're listed by end of year ladder position, with the Premier asterixed.

AFL Tables - Ladders - Year by Year

Thats handy. I was using the afl app lol

That list... is really stark. Apart from dogs in 2016 the last team to win it outside the top 3-4 is adelaide in 1998
Winners have come from 1, 2 or 3

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Good thing the finals aren't next week then, lol.

 

[sr36]

Thats handy. I was using the afl app lol

That list... is really stark. Apart from dogs in 2016 the last team to win it outside the top 3-4 is adelaide in 1998
Winners have come from 1, 2 or 3

It's usually 1st or 2nd. The teams who've finished 3rd and won have tended to be the back to back teams who probably started the year a bit slowly or were that little bit less motivated in the home and away. Tiges first flag was from 3rd - but they were a bit like GWS last year - new game plan that didn't fully click until the second half of the year. Sydney also from 3rd in 2012 - but really even top 3 - they were first at r21 and dropped their last two h&A games - probably focussed on finals.

 

[magpies42]

Holmes isn't close to re-signing. Waiting to the end of the season. From the horses mouth

On SM-N975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

What do we have to trade I guess is the question. We traded this years first round pick for Schulz!!! I still can’t believe this.

 

[Eric Shin]

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[Bianconeri]

What do we have to trade I guess is the question. We traded this years first round pick for Schulz!!! I still can’t believe this.

We might have to extract some currency from our players.

Mihocek - looks pretty crucial now but we’ve still got McStay to come back. Perhaps at the end of the year we decide McStay is enough of a leader and Reef is ready to take over.

McCreery - Strong player but 3rd or 4th placed small forward in the side and his forward pressure is less crucial with the addition of Shultz. Also might open more opportunities Harrison.

Noble - probably won’t have much value if he doesn’t get back into the 23 but would look to shop him around even if he did.

 

[gouki88]

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His 2nd half performance didn’t have me missing him

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

His 2nd half performance didn’t have me missing him

We'd be on here crucifying him for going missing when it got too tough if he was playing for us, lol.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

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Schultz also had 2 goals but added 2 tackles, which is why he’s there and Ginnivan isn’t.

 

[memoryofmchale]

Culture killer? Our spirit and unity were off the charts with Ginni on the list. What did he kill?

Luckily the culture was strong to survive. He ignored standards set by the club and decided to engage in all sorts of behaviour that was inappropriate. We shipped him out for a reason - it had nothing to do with Schultz. As a player, he was highly regarded.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Luckily the culture was strong to survive. He ignored standards set by the club and decided to engage in all sorts of behaviour that was inappropriate. We shipped him out for a reason - it had nothing to do with Schultz. As a player, he was highly regarded.

You must be so squeaky clean Kinder.

 

[sideswipe]

You must be so squeaky clean Kinder.

The smock gets dirty, the wearer stays clean.

 

[Ugene41]

Schultz was very involved but lacked the finish in round 0, and then kicked two goals this week. I’m not concerned about him at all.

I'm sure he'll be serviceable. Just don't think he's worth the opportunity cost.

I feel like if we're still in the window this year, and want to top up one last time for a final year of Pendles/Sidey, we should target someone like a Jack Macrae who could be similar to a Tom Mitchell, Taylor Adams in terms of being a gun ex-AA mid who's being pushed out from their clubs and hopefully available for a 2nd/3rd rounder. Would have a much bigger impact in our side than Schultz.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I'm sure he'll be serviceable. Just don't think he's worth the opportunity cost.

I feel like if we're still in the window this year, and want to top up one last time for a final year of Pendles/Sidey, we should target someone like a Jack Macrae who could be similar to a Tom Mitchell, Taylor Adams in terms of being a gun ex-AA mid who's being pushed out from their clubs and hopefully available for a 2nd/3rd rounder. Would have a much bigger impact in our side than Schultz.

Agree to disagree. I think Jack Macrae would be the antithesis of what we need as a team.

 

[Ugene41]

Agree to disagree. I think Jack Macrae would be the antithesis of what we need as a team.

Honestly, the one I would really love would be Tom Lynch. Next year will be the last year of his 7 year heavily backended deal from Tigers. If he overcomes his injuries this year and Tigers are bottom 4, could potentially pry him out as a salary dump from the Tigers and we can look to smooth out his $1.5m deal next year (some contribution from Tigers plus extend for 2-3 years) for one last crack with the current side.

 

[memoryofmchale]

Wil Parker is a good player. I've liked him at training. Hasn't been on our list for long and looks impressive. Smart pickup.

 

[memoryofmchale]

Honestly, the one I would really love would be Tom Lynch. Next year will be the last year of his 7 year heavily backended deal from Tigers. If he overcomes his injuries this year and Tigers are bottom 4, could potentially pry him out as a salary dump from the Tigers and we can look to smooth out his $1.5m deal next year (some contribution from Tigers plus extend for 2-3 years) for one last crack with the current side.

He'd be no worse than Kreuger apart from the price tag and the fact we'd need to give up a hefty pick to have them do the dump. Unless we volunteered said cap space for a high selection ...