Common Misconception - our window is closing

[rgauci]

Lets break the team up into a few categories:

30+ AKA on their last legs
Peter Bell 31y 10m
Shaun McManus 31y 10m
Jeff Farmer 30y 6m

27-29 Getting closer to their last legs
Mark Johnson 29y 7m
Matthew Carr 29y
Heath Black 28y 7m
Dean Solomon 27y 11m
Antoni Grover 27y 9m
Josh Carr 27y 8m
Chris Tarrant 27y 3m
Roger Hayden 27y

23-26 In the middle of their career
Des Headland 26y 11m
Paul Hasleby 26y 6m
Luke McPharlin 26y 1m
Matthew Pavlich 26y
Luke Webster 25y 7m
Scott Thornton 25y 3m
Aaron Sandilands 25y
Daniel Gilmore 24y 10m
Steven Dodd 24y 6m
Brett Peake 24y 6m
Ryan Crowley 23y 10m
Andrew Browne 23y 7m
Michael Johnson 23y 2m

0-22 Beginning of Career
Adam Campbell 22y 11m
Paul Duffield 22y 11m
Ryan Murphy 22y 7m
Byron Schammer 22y 6m
David Mundy 22y 5m
Andrew Foster 22y 4m
Ryley Dunn 22y 2m
Kepler Bradley 22y 1m
Robert Warnock 20y 11m
Marcus Drum 20y 8m
Garrick Ibbotson 19y 9m
Chris Smith (R) 19y 9m
Brock O'Brien 19y 7m
Calib Mourish (R) 19y 5m
Chris Mayne 19y 2m
Rhys Palmer 18y 10m
Brent Connolly (R) 18y 10m
Luke Pratt (R) 18y 2m

The two names at the top of the list which will obviously be big losses are Jeff Farmer and Peter Bell. Apart from those 2, i don't see us losing much talent for a minimum of 4 years.

Matthew Carr is a good player, but hardly unreplaceable. Heath Black i rate higher than M.Carr, but still falls in the category of replaceable.

Our window will close when the Pavlich, Tarrant, J.Carr, P.Hasleby, McPharlin, Grover, Hayden, Headland, Solomon, Thornton, Sandilands etc (25-27 y.o group) approach 30.

Our window is firmly open for at least another 3 years, more like 4-5 years. Its whether we take advantage of it.

Despite this highly talented group being 4 years away from 30, our youngster and replacements have already been shown heaps of talent. I'll highlight some youngsters who have proven they will forge long AFL careers.

Michael Johnson Stands out at 23 years and 2 months old as a future captain. He is the oldest of a group containing, David Mundy, Byron Schammer, Robert Warnock, Ryan Murphy and Andrew Foster. Highly touted but relatively untested youngsters include Marcus Drum, Rhys Palmer, Brock O'Brien etc.

Te future is not grim at Fremantle. And our list management is excellent. The list was established around Matthew Pavlich, and at age 26 he's hardly past his best.

 

[Cheetah]

I agree IP but in saying that, 4 or 5 in the youngest group need to stand up and play regular top 22 this year.

 

[rgauci]

I'm not IP. The youngsters that need to start making an impact, IMO are Foster, Drum, Ibbotson, O'Brien, Smith. If they started to all show something you know our midfield is gonna be completely revitalised in no time. Not to mention Palmer, Hinkley and Mayne who are all first year players.

 

[chook2734]

Great post rgauci. Much better than that rubbish that was in the worst yesterday. The 'average age' of a list must be one of the most useless stats (and there are plenty in this game). When Bell, McManus and possibly an MCarr or other oldie goes at the end of the season to be replaced by a 17 year old, the average drops quite significantly.

As you've pointed out, those in the 'on their last legs' list is not our core group and hopefully Farmer can keep it going for another 2 or 3 seasons. Where clubs go wrong is when the middle and beginner (I'd probably split this into first/second year players and 3rd year onwards) groups are not good enough. We have some very good players in the middle group, and some potentially very good players in the beginner group. If you can keep the numbers and quality fairly constant in these two groups, there's no real reason for a club to need to bottom out.

 

[FootyEater]

we will struggle when we lose pavlich, thank god thats a long way away yet.

i think us being too old is well overstated. i saw in THE WORST the other day that they were spruiling about how the eagles are so young and that their window is open for trhe next five years. well their average age is 22, ours is 24, the last time i checked 24 was about the peak of your career. its absolute BS the carp that gets printed sometimes.

one injury to dean cox and their season is over. one injury to pavlich and our season is over, we have the talent, we are at the right age, all we need is the luck. and for kim hagdorn and cronies to shut the f... up about things they know nothing about

 

[chook2734]

we will struggle when we lose pavlich, thank god thats a long way away yet.

i think us being too old is well overstated. i saw in THE WORST the other day that they were spruiling about how the eagles are so young and that their window is open for trhe next five years. well their average age is 22, ours is 24, the last time i checked 24 was about the peak of your career. its absolute BS the carp that gets printed sometimes.

one injury to dean cox and their season is over. one injury to pavlich and our season is over, we have the talent, we are at the right age, all we need is the luck. and for kim hagdorn and cronies to shut the f... up about things they know nothing about

I know this is getting pretty off topic, but I don't agree with this FootyEater. I know we don't have anyone in the wings ready to take Pav's role over in an instant, but I think somewhere in Campbell, Murphy, Johnson and possibly even Mundy we could very well find ourselves a very good forward. I'd be happy if we never have to worry about it, but if something was to happen to Pav, I'm confident that we can find someone to fill his shoes (for a while anyway).

 

[Cheetah]

I'm not IP. The youngsters that need to start making an impact, IMO are Foster, Drum, Ibbotson, O'Brien, Smith. If they started to all show something you know our midfield is gonna be completely revitalised in no time. Not to mention Palmer, Hinkley and Mayne who are all first year players.

Gee, sorry rgauci. All my marbles can't have settled yet this morning?

 

[FootyEater]

I know this is getting pretty off topic, but I don't agree with this FootyEater. I know we don't have anyone in the wings ready to take Pav's role over in an instant, but I think somewhere in Campbell, Murphy, Johnson and possibly even Mundy we could very well find ourselves a very good forward. I'd be happy if we never have to worry about it, but if something was to happen to Pav, I'm confident that we can find someone to fill his shoes (for a while anyway).

'

yeah maybe it is a bit drastic saying that the season would be over. but i do think unfortunately that no team realies on one player more than what we do with pav. maybe the bulldogs and brad johnson is the other example i can think of. but your right, sometimes we do not know the capabilities of players untill they are thrown into the deep end. all this being said, im hoping that we dont have to do without the big pav life is better with him at CHF

 

[Shadow Man]

We haven't had alot of joy with our first draft picks in recent times with Dunn and Collard. Hopefully Drum can emerge this year and Palmer can make an impact sooner rather than later.

I agree that Foster, Drum, Ibbotson, O'Brien, Smith need to continue to develop and start getting some game time. I'd also put Duffield in that group, his best is still yet to come.

 

[FootyEater]

We haven't had alot of joy with our first draft picks in recent times with Dunn and Collard. Hopefully Drum can emerge this year and Palmer can make an impact sooner rather than later.

I agree that Foster, Drum, Ibbotson, O'Brien, Smith need to continue to develop and start getting some game time. I'd also put Duffield in that group, his best is still yet to come.

duffield is an interesting one. reckon he needed to work on his skills, i didnt notice him at training the other day so im not sure whether he has picked them up, but if he has, he can be considered in the mix as well

 

[The Night Shift]

Without this common misconception [and I agree it's a very common misconception], Bay13 would only have their hate of our colours & clunb song to bleet about.

 

[Ripper]

duffield is an interesting one. reckon he needed to work on his skills, i didnt notice him at training the other day so im not sure whether he has picked them up, but if he has, he can be considered in the mix as well

I pulled out Derby 1 2006 the other day which was Duffmans 2nd game. He was sensational and has at some time at least had all the skills.

Just a form/confidence issue IMO.

It would not surprise me if he was a 'bolter" in 2008.

 

[FootyEater]

I pulled out Derby 1 2006 the other day which was Duffmans 2nd game. He was sensational and has at some time at least had all the skills.

Just a form/confidence issue IMO.

It would not surprise me if he was a 'bolter" in 2008.

i hope your right hey

 

[Cheetah]

I pulled out Derby 1 2006 the other day which was Duffmans 2nd game. He was sensational and has at some time at least had all the skills.

Just a form/confidence issue IMO.

It would not surprise me if he was a 'bolter" in 2008.

Yeah, I watched this on the weekend too and was amazed at how poised he looked under pressure.

I'm hoping he can get the right foot forward again under Harves.

 

[ImperialPurple]

Great analysis rgauci. I would even suggest that Roger and Tazza could be added to the "middle of their career" list - neither will be 28 till after the 2008 season is over... 23-27 IMO you are at the peak of your powers... but that is just splitting hairs.

Belly is irreplaceable from a lead by example POV, and there's only one Jeffrey Farmer... but even Josh may have another 4-5 years in him - same with Groves, Taz, Roger. But hopefully by then the next generation will be ready to assume the mantle of "senior players", and the current crop of undrafted 14-18 year olds are looking the goods as the generation after that.

I seriously don't think we are in any way as bad shape as many other would have us believe. But the time is now for this group to establish a winning culture at this club. There's no point having good list management, and talented kids waiting for their opportunity, and a good crop of 21-24 year olds if the club does not get a winning culture happening NOW. Therein lies the challenge.

 

[Stronzo]

Good post rgauci.

It is heartening to see it laid out like that, hardly as bad as it is made out to be.

 

[Belnakor]

Kiwi Campbell and Spud Murphy are proving to be duds at this point - I think they would have one more year and they will be seriously looking at getting delisted. I think we have some good youngsters, and we have drafted well, the only question is whether we got another tall defender for this year (we didn't) and got some pace (we did).

I think the future is decent, but i don't think we have a world beating team, we have a solid list with a fanastic captain - but after that we tail off, we don't have any midfielders in the top 10 or even top 20 in the league and we no tall defenders of note (johnson is not big enough to play on the gorillas). There is a reason Gehrig chops us up every year and it will happen again this year.

I think we will make the top 8 this year realistically.

 

[Belnakor]

one injury to dean cox and their season is over. one injury to pavlich and our season is over, we have the talent, we are at the right age, all we need is the luck. and for kim hagdorn and cronies to shut the f... up about things they know nothing about

If Pav went down with a knee in the first round we would write our season off - its that simple. Lets not kid ourselves, he is our best player by the length of the straight.

 

[Stronzo]

Perhaps Cambell could play as a backman.

 

[ImperialPurple]

This mindless optimism will not help FFC in 2008.

The club needs to get desperate because the premiership window is definetely closing. 2008 is a crunch year, 2009 is the last role of the dice. If we fail over the next 2 years the club need to go into a rebuilding phase.

Just because the club has alot of players in the 0-22 category is meaningless. What matters is the quality of those players. The truth is that many of the players in the 0-22 cetegory are not even close to challenging for a first team spot. Many of these kids are unproven, and in some cases unlikely to suceed at AFL level.

Lets look at these kids in more detail:

Adam Campbell 22y 11m - Yet to prove himself beyond showing that he "has mongrel".
Paul Duffield 22y 11m - Probably a depth player at best - looks more suited to the WAFL.
Ryan Murphy 22y 7m - 2008 is a crunch year for this guy - has shown a bit, but no where near enough to put pressure on the existing forwards in the run on team.
Byron Schammer 22y 6m - Quality player and big game performer.
David Mundy 22y 5m - AFL standard, but not a world beater - lacks accountability and seems to play his best games as a floating loose man in defence.
Andrew Foster 22y 4m - Yet to prove himself, is a complete lottery as to whether he will make it.
Ryley Dunn 22y 2m - On his last chance
Kepler Bradley 22y 1m - On his last chance
Robert Warnock 20y 11m - Quality player but will he return to Melbourne?
Marcus Drum 20y 8m - Good player
Garrick Ibbotson 19y 9m - Looked good, but needs to put more pressure on existing players.
Chris Smith (R) 19y 9m - Chris who?
Brock O'Brien 19y 7m - Looks good from the little that we have seen
Calib Mourish (R) 19y 5m
Chris Mayne 19y 2m -
Rhys Palmer 18y 10m - The great white hope - will he deliver?
Brent Connolly (R) 18y 10m
Luke Pratt (R) 18y 2m

If we have not tasted success by 2010 then good luck getting Pav to sign another extension. He has fallen for the "this is Freo's big chance" two times already. Will he get fooled for a third time - unlikely. 2008 is crucial for this club.

I think that is a fair assessment also, looking at it from a different perspective. rgauci's glass is half full, while yours is half empty - and that's okay; it takes different srokes and all that. But I do think you are seriously under-estimating Pav as an intelligent human being. He is part of the "machine" - he doesn't need to be "fooled into" staying. He stays because he has the belief that the club can achieve something. He's not stupid.

Kiwi Campbell and Spud Murphy are proving to be duds at this point - I think they would have one more year and they will be seriously looking at getting delisted. I think we have some good youngsters, and we have drafted well, the only question is whether we got another tall defender for this year (we didn't) and got some pace (we did).

I think the future is decent, but i don't think we have a world beating team, we have a solid list with a fanastic captain - but after that we tail off, we don't have any midfielders in the top 10 or even top 20 in the league and we no tall defenders of note (johnson is not big enough to play on the gorillas). There is a reason Gehrig chops us up every year and it will happen again this year.

I think we will make the top 8 this year realistically.

Frase killed us last year at the Dome... but he was having a Day Out that game. His record against us in the 4-5 games prior to that has been ordinary.

 

[sabre_ac]

My concern is the quality kid's coming through...While our window may be open longer than many believe...Beyond 5 years I think we are going to struggle.

Warnock look's to be an out and out star of the competition.

Schammer and Johnson will be good players

Mundy and Murphy remain almost all hype

Dunn, Drum have done little

Brock looked good in his first game, though far too early to comment.

Palmer is yet to debut.

We are a real chance for a flag this season, however darker years await 2012 on.

Depending on outcome of this season, we have may to trade away some strong (under performing players) for higher draft picks.

Our club spent years with gun kid's and few mature stars, it seems we have done a complete turn around.

 

[estibador]

We are a real chance for a flag this season, however darker years await 2012 on.

I don't understand how people can say this.

By then we would have another 5 drafts worth of kids on our list. We could have picked up 2 Kerrs, a Cox and a Rutten by then.

How can people possibly predict doom and gloom when we have no idea what our list will look like in 5 years?

 

[newlander77]

Mundy and Murphy remain almost all hype

Sorry, but how can you back up saying that about Mundy exactly? I disagree completely. The kid is a champ.

 

[Belnakor]

What has Murphy actually done or produced so far?

 

[poshman]

Perhaps Cambell could play as a backman.

I mentioned this last pre season and got hammered for it! But I still think that it is almost his only option with the list we have.

Also I agree on mundy, has failed to go to the next step or almost any step other than third man up or loose man or shirks contest man!