Tasmania Congratulations on Tassie License. Mens team to enter 2028. Womens team TBA. Other details TBA 3/5

[Chief]

---

GO TO PART 2 of this thread:

Tasmania - Tasmania Devils, welcome to the AFL. Mens team to enter 2028. Womens team TBA. Other details TBA 3/5 (Part 2)

Continued from Part 1: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/congratulations-on-tassie-license-mens-team-to-enter-2028-womens-team-tba-other-details-tba-3-5.1226653/ Was going to draft up a Summary but this is pretty good...

www.bigfooty.com

---

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Well, yeh, maybe, well, no, not really.
Every 2nd tier sport reckons they don't get the big bucks because they're not run as well as the AFL.
But the truth is, they don't get the big bucks because they don't have the depth of support that the AFL has.
Doesn't matter who is running it, doesn't matter what the governance structures are, none of that matters.
Can you put a game on tomorrow and immediately get lots of eyeballs, that's all that matters.
As if any of us who follow the AFL give a damn about who is the CEO, or who is chairman of the board, who is on the board, we actually don't care, it's not important. All we care about is when our team is playing next.

This is one of the most ridiculous posts I’ve seen on bigfooty in a long time !

 

[NoobPie]

Well, yeh, maybe, well, no, not really.
Every 2nd tier sport reckons they don't get the big bucks because they're not run as well as the AFL.
But the truth is, they don't get the big bucks because they don't have the depth of support that the AFL has.
Doesn't matter who is running it, doesn't matter what the governance structures are, none of that matters.
Can you put a game on tomorrow and immediately get lots of eyeballs, that's all that matters.
As if any of us who follow the AFL give a damn about who is the CEO, or who is chairman of the board, who is on the board, we actually don't care, it's not important. All we care about is when our team is playing next.

That might not describe the people who hang out on the footy industry sub-forum, and it is bit absolutist, but substantially on the money.

Soccer seems to be the most afflicted by the delusion but both the rugby codes seem to have strong doses of it as well.

Paradoxically it makes administrative leadership impossible in Australian soccer. Expectations / delusions of grandeur will always be way beyond what is achievable. Leader will be scapegoated, rinse and repeat.

 

[NoobPie]

This is one of the most ridiculous posts I’ve seen on bigfooty in a long time !

And yet is far far less ridiculous than the comment right above it!

 

[Colonial]

This is one of the most ridiculous posts I’ve seen on bigfooty in a long time !

Expand on that?

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Expand on that?

To say it doesn’t matter who or how a competition or club is run and no body cares is a pretty ridiculous comment if you look at the Nbl and basketball in general before Larry kestleman took over and now it’s like night and day to say good governance makes no difference is a joke, you look at how poorly football has been managed in Tasmania and you see what the results have been because of it

 

[NoobPie]

To say it doesn’t matter who or how a competition or club is run and no body cares is a pretty ridiculous comment if you look at the Nbl and basketball in general before Larry kestleman took over and now it’s like night and day to say good governance makes no difference is a joke, you look at how poorly football has been managed in Tasmania and you see what the results have been because of it

And yet the level of interest in football in Tasmania still dwarfs other codes.

15 years ago after Lowy used large amounts of tax dollars to reset Australia soccer, people were lauding his genius.....and then the sport floundering under the same settings a decade and a bit on was proof that the administration was incompetent

 

[Gigantor]

To say it doesn’t matter who or how a competition or club is run and no body cares is a pretty ridiculous comment if you look at the Nbl and basketball in general before Larry kestleman took over and now it’s like night and day to say good governance makes no difference is a joke, you look at how poorly football has been managed in Tasmania and you see what the results have been because of it

Maybe you're not old enough to remember how "big" basketball was in the early 90s.
Sports journos dedicated many articles about the how AFL should be worried about basketball (similar to the many articles we've been reading for 40 years about how aussie rules needs to worry about soccer).
But these 2nd tier sports momentarily peak, and then fall back to their natural level of support, i.e. not a hell of a lot.
This is the key point.
Even in those momentary periods of peaking, they are miles, and miles and miles behind the AFL in every respect.
Doesn't matter who is at the helm, they might be able to do the impossible, but they can't produce miracles.

 

[Rob]

To say it doesn’t matter who or how a competition or club is run and no body cares is a pretty ridiculous comment if you look at the Nbl and basketball in general before Larry kestleman took over and now it’s like night and day to say good governance makes no difference is a joke, you look at how poorly football has been managed in Tasmania and you see what the results have been because of it

You're basically proving his point - basketball might be well run currently, but its standing in the market has barely moved. It's not like they've gone from being 5th in line to 2nd or 3rd, at best they might challenge the A League. But that's more from the A League's popularity falling off a cliff than the NBL soaring.

 

[workhorse]

Is anyone genuinely suggesting that Basketball will get near the AFL, in any metric, in Tasmania, though? Pretty sure the basketball fans in this thread have a sound grasp on the sport's standing in Australia

 

[Engimal v3]

Is anyone genuinely suggesting that Basketball will get near the AFL, in any metric, in Tasmania, though? Pretty sure the basketball fans in this thread have a sound grasp on the sport's standing in Australia

I'd also bet that NBA support dwarves NBL support, even domestically

 

[workhorse]

I'd also bet that NBA support dwarves NBL support, even domestically

Anecdotally...absolutely no doubt

 

[madmug]

Is anyone genuinely suggesting that Basketball will get near the AFL, in any metric, in Tasmania, though? Pretty sure the basketball fans in this thread have a sound grasp on the sport's standing in Australia

Certainly not, excepting it will attract kids to play & away from junior footy. The taller athletic kids will eye a career in basketball rather than the Mainland Football league.

 

[workhorse]

Certainly not, excepting it will attract kids to play & away from junior footy. The taller athletic kids will eye a career in basketball rather than the Mainland Football league.

It's funny actually as AF has historically benefited greatly from talented basketball players choosing Aussie Rules over Basketball, either at a young age or during their professional career, because of the greater opportunities/remuneration in Australia

Dean Brogan and Hugh Greenwood are obvious success stories off the top of my head. Pendles was actually a star junior basketballer (he has a basketball background, did you know?) but chose Footy instead of an AIS Basketball scholarship which ended up going to Patty Mills. John Patton and Brayden Maynard both have/have had brothers play NBL.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Maybe you're not old enough to remember how "big" basketball was in the early 90s.
Sports journos dedicated many articles about the how AFL should be worried about basketball (similar to the many articles we've been reading for 40 years about how aussie rules needs to worry about soccer).
But these 2nd tier sports momentarily peak, and then fall back to their natural level of support, i.e. not a hell of a lot.
This is the key point.
Even in those momentary periods of peaking, they are miles, and miles and miles behind the AFL in every respect.
Doesn't matter who is at the helm, they might be able to do the impossible, but they can't produce miracles.

I absolutely

It's funny actually as AF has historically benefited greatly from talented basketball players choosing Aussie Rules over Basketball, either at a young age or during their professional career, because of the greater opportunities/remuneration in Australia

Dean Brogan and Hugh Greenwood are obvious success stories off the top of my head. Pendles was actually a star junior basketballer (he has a basketball background, did you know?) but chose Footy instead of an AIS Basketball scholarship which ended up going to Patty Mills. John Patton and Brayden Maynard both have/have had brothers play NBL.

i would normally agree with the point you’re making but I don’t think any one on the mainland has any idea how broken our junior or development system as well as our state leave currently is the now the afl have made a bizarre decision to run all our junior development from Melbourne to save money things are going from bad to worse for footy down here while the nbl is not going to overtake afl they have come down here at the perfect time footy is on its knees. People confuse the huge support for afl clubs down here as footy being in a healthy state

 

[sherb]

I absolutely

i would normally agree with the point you’re making but I don’t think any one on the mainland has any idea how broken our junior or development system as well as our state leave currently is the now the afl have made a bizarre decision to run all our junior development from Melbourne to save money things are going from bad to worse for footy down here while the nbl is not going to overtake afl they have come down here at the perfect time footy is on its knees. People confuse the huge support for afl clubs down here as footy being in a healthy state

That's because the AFL has conditioned people to think that way - ie, the "health of the game" is only related to the AFL competition itself - and then only in commercial terms (memberships, ratings, attendances, revenue, profits, etc).

Grass roots footy apparently doesn't enter into things. The "keeper of the code" has clearly been a failure in that area wrt Tassie football.

 

[BringBackTorps]

It appears the AFL (& AFLPA- no pay cuts!) want more content- 28 wks H & A season (18 minute qtrs) is a possibility from 2021.

The desire for more content is good news for the Tas. 19th team Bid, as A Tas. team will deliver an extra 11 H & A matches pa (& possibly Final 9, 1 more Final?).

Also, the grossly overpaid 11 person Executive team ($10.8m pa) is being reduced to 8 (but R. Gunston will be re-employed as an occasional "Consultant").
The AFL HQ empire (795 Melbourne HQ staff pre- covid being reduced by 20%; 1280 AFL staff nationally pre covid ie extra 485) would make a cushy, recession-proof Public Service Dept. blush.
Oh well, I suppose the AFL has to spread its largesse somewhere.

The axe is out at the AFL

And just to confirm, the "loss" is a loss of revenue. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-chops-wood-after-revenue-slump-20200824-p55ovv.html All told, the clubs and the AFL will lose $300 million-$400 million from their forecast $1.2 billion revenue this year – a reduction of between a...

www.bigfooty.com

(Scroll to posts#32 & 33)

Meanwhile, the AFL has dismally failed in its self-proclaimed responsibility to protect & foster the game in Tasmania (& resurrect its fabled VFL/AFL recruitment gold mine).
At least some in the "football industry" (sic) have been/will continue to do very well.

 

[telsor]

It appears the AFL (& AFLPA- no pay cuts!) want more content- 28 wks H & A season (18 minute qtrs) is a possibility from 2021.

AFL made a statement yesterday that 28 games wasn't even something they were considering, and they had no idea where the rumour came from.

Squashed the idea pretty hard.

Meanwhile, the AFL has dismally failed in its self-proclaimed responsibility to protect & foster the game in Tasmania (& resurrect its fabled VFL/AFL recruitment gold mine).

What do you expect them to do?
Tas produces, per capita by the demographic, players at slightly above the rate as the rest of the AFL states.

Unless you expect them to go to Tas and start bumping up the population, there isn't really a lot they can do to make any significant difference.

Relatively small pop of 17-18 year old boys means few likely recruits, and as Tas's population declines (particularly in that demographic), fewer and fewer recruits will come out of Tas, whatever the AFL does.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Relatively small pop of 17-18 year old boys means few likely recruits, and as Tas's population declines (particularly in that demographic), fewer and fewer recruits will come out of Tas, whatever the AFL does.

Tasmania's population isn't declining.

 

[telsor]

Tasmania's population isn't declining.

a) The relevant demographics are.
b) Both the Tas government and Bureau of Statistics official estimates predict it will be within a few years.

The only reason it isn't declining now is that older people are living longer, so any population growth is in old age pensioners....Not exactly likely recruits.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

AFL made a statement yesterday that 28 games wasn't even something they were considering, and they had no idea where the rumour came from.

Squashed the idea pretty hard.



What do you expect them to do?
Tas produces, per capita by the demographic, players at slightly above the rate as the rest of the AFL states.

Unless you expect them to go to Tas and start bumping up the population, there isn't really a lot they can do to make any significant difference.

Relatively small pop of 17-18 year old boys means few likely recruits, and as Tas's population declines (particularly in that demographic), fewer and fewer recruits will come out of Tas, whatever the AFL does.

This is complete garbage don’t know were you get your info from sometimes Tasmania does not produce more afl players per capita then the rest of the states not even close to and Tasmania’s population is not in decline it’s growing at a small rate. And you don’t know what else the afl could do is this a joke?? We receive just over one million a season in funding from the afl compare that to the tens of millions the expansion states are receiving with this money were supposed to fund a 7 club state league and run a tac cup under18 team fund teams to go to the under 16 and under 18 national championships fund women’s football fund the rest of our junior development and academy programs fund Auskick and you don’t think the Afl can do anything else ? We have been set up to fail trying to operate on a massively underfunded program all this while the afl continue to send in qualified incompetent people down here to run it all !

 

[telsor]

This is complete garbage don’t know were you get your info from sometimes Tasmania does not produce more afl players per capita then the rest of the states not even close to and Tasmania’s population is not in decline it’s growing at a small rate. And you don’t know what else the afl could do is this a joke?? We receive just over one million a season in funding from the afl compare that to the tens of millions the expansion states are receiving with this money were supposed to fund a 7 club state league and run a tac cup under18 team fund teams to go to the under 16 and under 18 national championships fund women’s football fund the rest of our junior development and academy programs fund Auskick and you don’t think the Afl can do anything else ? We have been set up to fail trying to operate on a massively underfunded program all this while the afl continue to send in qualified incompetent people down here to run it all !

Where I get my information?

I told you the source.

Bureau of Statistics & Tasmanian Government.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

AFL made a statement yesterday that 28 games wasn't even something they were considering, and they had no idea where the rumour came from.

Squashed the idea pretty hard.



What do you expect them to do?
Tas produces, per capita by the demographic, players at slightly above the rate as the rest of the AFL states.

Unless you expect them to go to Tas and start bumping up the population, there isn't really a lot they can do to make any significant difference.

Relatively small pop of 17-18 year old boys means few likely recruits, and as Tas's population declines (particularly in that demographic), fewer and fewer recruits will come out of Tas, whatever the AFL does.

This is complete garbage don’t know were you get your info from sometimes Tasmania does not produce more afl players per capita then the rest of the states not even close to and Tasmania’s population is not in decline it’s growing at a small rate. And you don’t know what else the afl could do is this a joke?? We receive just over one million a season in funding from the afl compare that to the tens of millions the expansion states are receiving with this money were supposed to fund a 7 club state league and run a tac cup under18 team fund teams to go to the under 16 and under 18 national championships fund women’s football fund the rest of our junior development and academy programs fund Auskick and you don’t think the Afl can do anything else ? We have been set up to fail trying to operate on a massively underfunded program all this while the afl continue to send in qualif

Where I get my information?

I told you the source.

Bureau of Statistics & Tasmanian Government.

you might want to re check your info Tasmania’s population has increased not decreased and your info re Tasmania producing more players per capita is completely inaccurate your starting to become like the pippen on any threads to do with Tasmania it’s becoming laughable!

 

[telsor]

you might want to re check your info Tasmania’s population has increased not decreased and your info re Tasmania producing more players per capita is completely inaccurate your starting to become like the pippen on any threads to do with Tasmania it’s becoming laughable!

My point, as I explained, was that while the Tas population is indeed still growing, it's almost entirely in older demographics, and thus not relevant for potential players....Teams aren't looking to recruit grandpa after all.

But I checked my info, and found a new, more recent, source...The University of Tasmania.

Tasmanian Demographic Analysis SnapShot – January 2020 | Institute for Social Change News

blogs.utas.edu.au

Seems things have improved slightly since I last looked, and there is indeed growth at all ages, but it's still VERY heavily weighted to older people as as the 'key findings' of the linked document says...

" One in five Tasmanians are aged 65 or over(20.1%), indicating what demographers refer to as ‘hyper-ageing’, the point at which longer term population growth is not considered possible leading to the likelihood of eventual population decline. "

-------

From page 2... (paraphrased/simplified slightly to change a paragraph into a 'table').

Annual Pop growth over the past five years
Overall 0.79%.
Over 65, 3.3%
over 85 2.4%
working age (15-64) 0.3%
Youth 0.04%

 

[Tasmanian saint]

a) The relevant demographics are.
b) Both the Tas government and Bureau of Statistics official estimates predict it will be within a few years.

The only reason it isn't declining now is that older people are living longer, so any population growth is in old age pensioners....Not exactly likely recruits.

Older people are living longer this is becoming hilarious ffs! Tasmania has had a steady but small population growth all the current projections moving forward post covid is pointing toward large regional areas in Australia having quite large spikes in population growths with lots of people looking to move out of the big cities Tasmania is very much predicted to have quite a large spike over the next 5-7 years I take it going buy your comment you don’t follow or watch any news !

 

[telsor]

Older people are living longer this is becoming hilarious ffs! Tasmania has had a steady but small population growth all the current projections moving forward post covid is pointing toward large regional areas in Australia having quite large spikes in population growths with lots of people looking to move out of the big cities Tasmania is very much predicted to have quite a large spike over the next 5-7 years I take it going buy your comment you don’t follow or watch any news !

Source for those projections?