News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV

[7577969923]

Victoria AMA says Covid-deniers and anti-vaxxers should opt out of public health system and ‘let nature run its course’ | Australia news | The Guardian

North's BF ahead of the curve, as always.

“We’re all juggling everything the best we can to avoid and prevent deaths. We know as we reopen it’s the unvaccinated who are going to get Covid, and they are going to get great hospital treatment with many new experimental drugs, even though they think the vaccine is ‘experimental’.

I assume DesertRoo will refuse to accept any "experimental" treatment based on his comments about the vaccine.

 

[disco_cowboy]

just finished 11 day home quarantine after being a PCC and got my day 13 test back negative.

Went running for an hour + a coffee walk to warm down with someone who tested positive.

Vaccines work baby.

 

[Tas]

Free at last, fully vaccinated... Tender Touch here i come! :stern look

 

[blackshadow]

Free at last, fully vaccinated... Tender Touch here i come! :stern look

Except...

 

[Ry009]

Some sobering days still to come, but it was good seeing the local cafe with quite a few dines in this morning, as well as the local hairdresser with queues around the corner an hour before they open.

 

[see see]

Except...

What about if you wear a gimp face mask?

 

[7577969923]

Except...

I'd imagine it is a bit like barbers. They weren't allowed to open but plenty were doing home visits for a cashy! Stern look...

 

[DesertRoo]

“We’re all juggling everything the best we can to avoid and prevent deaths. We know as we reopen it’s the unvaccinated who are going to get Covid, and they are going to get great hospital treatment with many new experimental drugs, even though they think the vaccine is ‘experimental’.

I assume DesertRoo will refuse to accept any "experimental" treatment based on his comments about the vaccine.

I was staying away from this thread, do you want me to participate or not?

 

[B4Bear]

I was staying away from this thread, do you want me to participate or not?

You can if you want.

So are you going to go down the route that the AMA want you to?

Noting that there is <5% capacity in the ambulance service already, many people are going to be forced into less than optimal treatment through overloading the health system.

 

[7577969923]

I was staying away from this thread, do you want me to participate or not?

That's your decision. I tagged you because you have consistently pushed the idea that the vaccines are experimental.

 

[Tas]

Except...

Damn that dictator Dan.

 

[travelli]

“We’re all juggling everything the best we can to avoid and prevent deaths. We know as we reopen it’s the unvaccinated who are going to get Covid, and they are going to get great hospital treatment with many new experimental drugs, even though they think the vaccine is ‘experimental’.

I assume DesertRoo will refuse to accept any "experimental" treatment based on his comments about the vaccine.

working with the numbers, the vast majority of people who catch covid won't need to go to hospital. Including the unvaccinated.

 

[The acurate one]

Enjoy your freedom fellow Vics . Had my second jab.
Last day at the Uni . Have a week off and then off to another Uni .
Weather is wonderful, peace out y’all, we’ve done it tough is an understatement

 

[7577969923]

working with the numbers, the vast majority of people who catch covid won't need to go to hospital. Including the unvaccinated.

You miss the point. It doesn't need the majority of people who catch Covid to be hospitalised to completely cripple the system. Currently, 3 to 5% of those that test positive are ending up being hospitalised and that is enough to put enormous strain on the system. Currently, in Victoria there are 784 people in hospital for covid and 145 of them are in the ICU. Fully vaccinated people comprise only 12% of those hospitalised and only 2% of those in the ICU versus being circa 70% of the population. Adjusted for age the vaccinated are up to 30 times less likely to be hospitalised than the unvaccinated.v

Having a material amount of unvaccinated people in the community, and even at 90% fully vaccinated there's probably about half a million unvaccinated circulating in Melbourne, will guarantee the following:

1 - There are significantly more covid cases in the community than would be the case at 100% vaccination;
2 - There will be significantly more illness, in both unvaccinated and vaccinated people;
3 - There will be more death of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

That's right, people refusing to be vaccinated will cause more covid, more illness, and more death.

If our hospital system fails or we are put back into lockdown it will be entirely the fault of those that refuse to be vaccinated.

 

[B4Bear]

working with the numbers, the vast majority of people who catch covid won't need to go to hospital. Including the unvaccinated.

How naïve.

The vast majority hides the fact that the amount ending up in hospital overwhelms the hospital system.

If a million people catch it, and 1% end up in hospital then:


We end up with 2000 people needing ICU above and beyond what would have been needed pre-covid. And that is assuming that the infection rate starts to decrease, which it won't, as the UK are currently experiencing.

How many COVID cases can Victoria handle before its hospitals' ICU capacity is overrun? - ABC News

 

[Hojuman]

Russia:
. 1st to develop vaccine and use
. Last 3 days ave.35,000 cases a day
. Last 3 days 1000 deaths a day
. 30% of 140mill population double vaxxed.

This is impressive though:

Covid vaccine: India becomes second country to cross two billion Covid jabs

The milestone comes amid a rise in coronavirus cases in many states.

www.bbc.com

 

[Forever North]

Looks like we’ll achieve 90% double vax in a few weeks which is awesome and better than anyone had predicted. One of the most vaccinated places in the world. Can’t reasonably ask or expect more from the people. By then I really couldn’t give a s**t if the person next to me at work, at Coles, at the footy, in my home is vaccinated or not. I’m not going to go all Dan Andrews catastrophic ’health advice’ hysteria, doom, gloom and call for vax/unvax segregation, abuse those that aren’t vaccinated, lose friendships because of it, blame the 10% for every covid death, restriction etc. Being vaccinated is a very good insurance policy not some sort of guarantee. It’s an endemic virus, its part of life now, sooner or later it’ll run through the whole population. Living in a constant state of fear and panic is bullshit and unhealthy. 100% vaccination, covid zero, no deaths and illness are all unachievable unfortunately. Best thing governments can do after 90%+ vax is pour the billions into the health system and let people and businesses get on with life.

 

[travelli]

You miss the point. It doesn't need the majority of people who catch Covid to be hospitalised to completely cripple the system. Currently, 3 to 5% of those that test positive are ending up being hospitalised and that is enough to put enormous strain on the system. Currently, in Victoria there are 784 people in hospital for covid and 145 of them are in the ICU. Fully vaccinated people comprise only 12% of those hospitalised and only 2% of those in the ICU versus being circa 70% of the population. Adjusted for age the vaccinated are up to 30 times less likely to be hospitalised than the unvaccinated.v

Having a material amount of unvaccinated people in the community, and even at 90% fully vaccinated there's probably about half a million unvaccinated circulating in Melbourne, will guarantee the following:

1 - There are significantly more covid cases in the community than would be the case at 100% vaccination;
2 - There will be significantly more illness, in both unvaccinated and vaccinated people;
3 - There will be more death of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

That's right, people refusing to be vaccinated will cause more covid, more illness, and more death.

If our hospital system fails or we are put back into lockdown it will be entirely the fault of those that refuse to be vaccinated.

I was more talking about your stab at Desertroo. Just looking at your raw data there, that's a 95 - 97% chance that he won't need to go to the hospital when he catches covid. That's pretty good odds to start with. Then taking into account that alot of those 3-5% admitted to hospital are also more likely to have "pre-existing conditions", and assuming that Desertroo is in reasonable nick, it will be a very, very, very low chance he will need to go to hospital at all. Good luck DR

 

[DesertRoo]

You miss the point. It doesn't need the majority of people who catch Covid to be hospitalised to completely cripple the system. Currently, 3 to 5% of those that test positive are ending up being hospitalised and that is enough to put enormous strain on the system. Currently, in Victoria there are 784 people in hospital for covid and 145 of them are in the ICU. Fully vaccinated people comprise only 12% of those hospitalised and only 2% of those in the ICU versus being circa 70% of the population. Adjusted for age the vaccinated are up to 30 times less likely to be hospitalised than the unvaccinated.v

Having a material amount of unvaccinated people in the community, and even at 90% fully vaccinated there's probably about half a million unvaccinated circulating in Melbourne, will guarantee the following:

1 - There are significantly more covid cases in the community than would be the case at 100% vaccination;
2 - There will be significantly more illness, in both unvaccinated and vaccinated people;
3 - There will be more death of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

That's right, people refusing to be vaccinated will cause more covid, more illness, and more death.

If our hospital system fails or we are put back into lockdown it will be entirely the fault of those that refuse to be vaccinated.

I remember arguing about the data coming out of Israel vs England a couple of months ago.. you were hell bent on using the UK data set even thou they were six months behind the curve.


There is no green pass in the UK,
if you look at the statistics in the ages above 30 vaccinated vs unvaccinated, they’re about even spread and there’s a almost double the amount of breakthrough cases in the vaccinated group..
but there’s also a larger amount of hospitalisations in the unvaccinated group.. this will eventually flip. The unvaccinated group, will have less and less hospitalisations as their immune systems kick in, for the next round.

Question remains, are the vaccinated group now more susceptible to catching covid?

are you still going to blame the unvaccinated when this eventually fails.. I know Andrew’s will.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

 

[The Butcher]

Isn't it hard to form a picture of risk that has a "good" mix of relative and absolute, and to change the mix when zooming down to individual or out to population scales, and to change the mix for every other type of change in situation. I find it hard anyway.

 

[DesertRoo]

Isn't it hard to form a picture of risk that has a "good" mix of relative and absolute, and to change the mix when zooming down to individual or out to population scales, and to change the mix for every other type of change in situation. I find it hard anyway.

Imagine we were told the arr value instead of the rr..

 

[Lomas]

Imagine we were told the arr value instead of the rrr..

Did you subscribe this year, or are you waiting for the amnesty prizes?

 

[DesertRoo]

Did you subscribe this year, or are you waiting for the amnesty prizes?

After palaszczuk said yesterday, they were continuing building the quarantine camps for unvaccinated, amnesty might be needed.

 

[DesertRoo]

Fauci throwing Daszak under the bus?

The National Institutes of Health admitted Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance broke its reporting rules when conducting bat coronavirus research, with critics immediately contending this means the Wuhan lab collaborator had indeed been conducting gain-of-function research and NIH lied about it.
NIH principal deputy director Lawrence Tabak said in a Wednesday letter that EcoHealth provided a five-year progress reporton bat coronavirus research conducted under an NIH grant, and “the limited experiment described in the final progress report” was “testing if spike proteins from naturally occurring bat coronaviruses circulating in Chinawere capable of binding to the human ACE2 receptor in a mouse model.”

NIH added: “EcoHealth failed to report this finding right away, as was required by the terms of the grant. EcoHealth is being notified that they have five days from today to submit to NIH any and all unpublished data from the experiments and work conducted under this award.”

Fauci critics say NIH letter debunks 'gain of function' denial

The National Institutes of Health admitted Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance broke its reporting rules when conducting bat coronavirus research, with critics immediately contending this means the Wuhan lab collaborator had indeed been conducting gain-of-function research and NIH lied about it.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[The Butcher]

Imagine we were told the arr value instead of the rr..

I remember back in the day there was a vaccine trial with 40odd thousand, Pfizer maybe, that had basically zero change in all cause fatality between the groups. Knowing that didn't kick me out of the "wheres my vax man" crew, but it did say a lot about the absolute risk of the virus in the grand scheme of things given that time, those people, those environements, those viral strains, those viral prevelances, those healthcare capacities, those treatment protocols, etc etc.

I'd quite confidently say excess deaths move inversely as a function of vaccination rates, so extrapolating the trial results, in that regard, to widespread vaccination would have lead to bad predictions. Most likely it just wasn't set up to measure that fairly. But on the other hand extrapolating out the trial results regarding vaccine efficacy, I think they differentiate these with the terms efficacy vs effectiveness, would have led to good predictions. Its subtle things like this that leads to some arguing for a "border wall" between expert discussions and public discourse, to avoid wrong think. I think the genie is out, people will get the info and will speculate. What "needs" to be, and can justifyably be, done to the people who speculate into the "wrong" opinion is a point of disagreement. A disagreement where many seem to take a one size fits all, and total annihilation approach. I feel that the lack of trust between people greatly influences the discussions that lead to "wrong" opinions being formed and is some sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I wonder how different it might be without a largely faceless and anonymous internet where the most traffic and $$ is in all the bullshit and not the underlying topic.