Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

www.bigfooty.com

Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[blackcat]

And yet here your are trying to do the same thing.



If you are not going to take population density into account which greately affects the R0, you are either deliberately trying to be misleading for your own gain or you level of understanding is far lower than you can comprehend on Covid-19.

Take the world median pop. density at 80km2 and divide the countries population density then multiply by deaths per million.

P=(mpd/pd)*dpm


Deaths per million Covid-19 / population density (Performance)


San Marino 1209 / 529km² (182)
Belgium 793 / 376km² (168)
Andorra 660 / 164km² (321)
Spain 596 / 91.4km² (521)
Italy 535 / 201km² (213)
UK 526 / 281km² (150)
France 431 / 119km² (290)
Sweden 384 / 25km² (1228)

Now this just a performance indicator and not designed to suggest the number DPM of a median pop. density.

But you could not argue if Sweden's approach was not taken in a more pop. dense European country that those numbers wouldn't be way higher for that country.

But for me this is a stark, Sweden is twice as bad as anyone else and in most cases five times worse.

Now you keep putting graphs that Sweden is the same as everywhere else in Europe but it just not going to fly with a more intricate analysis.

and there other intricate elements on both sides wrt Sweden,

they are quite a homogenous bloc of liberal-left Scandi's
that said, they have had a material growth in population in the last dozen years, and fatality rates are significantly higher in Swedish-Somali community (I think this may be interpreted in myriad of possible alternatives)

the population is still confined primarily to Malmö Gottenburg and Stockholm tho

 

[Les Malone]

3 months is a long term frame. If you want to extend it you're just moving scenario for arguments sake. People are dying now and don't have the luxury of "waiting" for the data to come in.

All coroners death are not the same but we can look at excess deaths... Or even convoys of army trucks carrrying the dead, mass graves been built, overflow is body bags in refrigerators. We don't really need to care what coroners opinions are; do you worry what coroners put on death certifcates during infantry battles in world wars?

Name the "other" initiate variables.

this is the sort of hysteria that closed our tennis club down for fear of getting covid from a tennis ball, or people scared to pick up a cardboard box because covid could live on it for 72 hours or something insane, this poster has listened to the MSM far to much.

 

[Roby]

Since the first death in Australia how many flu related deaths have there been in Australia?

10

 

[kaiserchief13]

10

Source?

 

[blackcat]

3 months is a long term frame. If you want to extend it you're just moving scenario for arguments sake. People are dying now and don't have the luxury of "waiting" for the data to come in.

All coroners death are not the same but we can look at excess deaths... Or even convoys of army trucks carrrying the dead, mass graves been built, overflow is body bags in refrigerators. We don't really need to care what coroners opinions are; do you worry what coroners put on death certifcates during infantry battles in world wars?

Name the "other" initiate variables.

well Washington Consensus on Wuhan fires on satelite alternative lens(blue-light) and mass graves, I think a degree of scepticism is required, we are considering long term ramifications from economy shut-downs and individuals returning to their employment, this won't be possible for some, albeit Andrews and Morrison pulling every string and rabbit,

It does not look like our institutions caught the Rahm Emmanuel crisis of opportunity, though either Carr or ex Dept of Treasury/NABchair did come out in the press saying 'opportunity' awaits

 

[blackcat]

10

and the oscillation phenomenon of bad-flu-seasons ^fatalities may have mirror in less fatalities in coming year. Did not Australia have a bad flu season (+pneumonia) last year?

which could buffer us for this pandemic

 

[Les Malone]

Source?

they all really die of pneumonia just like covid, so who know how many, also its not flu season

FWIU if you are older than 80 and are crook enough to go to hospital with the flu you have a 10% chance of dying, but its pneumonia you really die from and what is usually on the death certificate

 

[bonddm]

they all really die of pneumonia just like covid, so who know how many, also its not flu season

FWIU if you are older than 80 and are crook enough to go to hospital with the flu you have a 10% chance of dying, but its pneumonia you really die from and what is usually on the death certificate

It’s definitely already flu season in the colder climes of Victoria. Our local doctor in Torquay said he’s had heaps of cases for approx. the past 2 months, but no Covid cases!

Article from April 1.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

 

[Pessimistic]

Isolation has cut flu transmission too

 

[luthor]

Isolation has cut flu transmission too

and car crashes.....and burglaries.....and murders...... and air pollution .....and oil prices.......... and apparently even suicides

Maybe the world should consider an annual Isolation week.

The AFL would love it.

Round 19 rebranded Covid-19 Round

 

[blackcat]

10

Roby you still are echoing verbatim the coroners' comorbid pathologies, I think our issue is with politicization in either direction

The overwhelming caveat is this is bad-faith (mine/from me) bad-faith reasoning when pressures, manpower resources scarce, when factors mount

 

[Pessimistic]

and car crashes.....and burglaries.....and murders...... and air pollution .....and oil prices.......... and apparently even suicides

Maybe the world should consider an annual Isolation week.

The AFL would love it.

Round 19 rebranded Covid-19 Round

Why can’t we have both?

 

[Pessimistic]

Worst thing is for us, the risk is over but many trash organisations are using the Covid to excuse inefficiency.

move on folks. I agreed with it 2 months ago but we know enough now to move on. No excuses

 

[tige19]

they all really die of pneumonia just like covid, so who know how many, also its not flu season

FWIU if you are older than 80 and are crook enough to go to hospital with the flu you have a 10% chance of dying, but its pneumonia you really die from and what is usually on the death certificate

902 deaths last year!!

 

[tige19]

What about this shocker

Under the best case scenario of a 20 per cent infection rate, about 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die. A moderate scenario of 10 million infections – 40 per cent of the population – would mean 100,000 dead.

Australia prepares for 50,000 to 150,000 coronavirus deaths

As the government considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.

www.google.com.au

The health experts have been horrid with their modelling.

 

[tige19]

Worst thing is for us, the risk is over but many trash organisations are using the Covid to excuse inefficiency.

move on folks. I agreed with it 2 months ago but we know enough now to move on. No excuses

Also a new fad... I’ve had so many “consultant agencies” offer to roll out covid safe work places. Who are these leaches?

 

[bonddm]

What about this shocker

Under the best case scenario of a 20 per cent infection rate, about 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die. A moderate scenario of 10 million infections – 40 per cent of the population – would mean 100,000 dead.

Australia prepares for 50,000 to 150,000 coronavirus deaths

As the government considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.

www.google.com.au

The health experts gave been horrid with their modelling.

 

[blackcat]

902 deaths last year!!

View attachment 879716

was not '19 a particularly bad year for deaths from flu/pneumonia which usually leads to better season as vulnerable whither away

 

[faible]

and there other intricate elements on both sides wrt Sweden,

they are quite a homogenous bloc of liberal-left Scandi's
that said, they have had a material growth in population in the last dozen years, and fatality rates are significantly higher in Swedish-Somali community (I think this may be interpreted in myriad of possible alternatives)

the population is still confined primarily to Malmö Gottenburg and Stockholm tho

You messed up and wrote this post in plain English.

 

[blackcat]

You messed up and wrote this post in plain English.

any particular reason why you take issue with me?

You need to parse serious contribution, with absurdist asides. I see no reason to allow partisan politics and confected racism with foreign politics to enter this topic/thread.

Discourse in this forum has devolved precipitously

 

[faible]

any particular reason why you take issue with me?

You need to parse serious contribution, with absurdist asides. I see no reason to allow partisan politics and confected racism with foreign politics to enter this topic/thread.

Discourse in this forum has devolved precipitously

No issue, more a general curiosity whether it’s intelligence or madness.

Given I also frequent The Clinic over on CN I’ve seen many a blackcat post.

I know some find your esoteric posting style quite entertaining but it’s never appealed to me.

Unlike some however, it does appear you actually have reasonable knowledge hidden away there, just not conveyed in a way that most people would bother to decipher.

 

[swansfan51]

Centre for Disease Control (USA) best estimate case fatality rate

0-49: 0.05%
50-64: 0.2%
65+: 1.3%
Overall: 0.4%

Best estimate case fatality rate, adjusted for asymptomatic cases (35% in CDC modelling)

0-49: 0.0325%
50-64: 0.13%
65+: 0.845%

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Mateyman]

OMG LOOK AT SWEDEN THEY DIDN'T LOCK AAAAAAH IT'S OVER IT'S OVER!!1
well swedens numbers are inline with the rest of europe and their own history of bad flu seasons
ackshually the numbers are low because sweden pretty much did lockdown checkmate distancing denier

lmao


lol yeah there's definitly been no fear-mongering about doomsday armageddon scenarios
View attachment 879662
View attachment 879661
View attachment 879664
and here from mid march:
View attachment 879668
nek minnit
View attachment 879671
she was 93 btw. we hardly knew ye rip

Cool ramble, as irrelevant as usual.

 

[Mateyman]

Centre for Disease Control (USA) best estimate case fatality rate

0-49: 0.05%
50-64: 0.2%
65+: 1.3%
Overall: 0.4%

Best estimate case fatality rate, adjusted for asymptomatic cases (35% in CDC modelling)

0-49: 0.0325%
50-64: 0.13%
65+: 0.845%

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

This is kind of weird modelling, as it implies that more or less everyone in NYC has had it one you include their asymptomatic estimate and the excess death figure for NYC.

 

[blackcat]

Folks remember Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns

not a stutter,

Donald Rumsfeld spoke of
I) known knowns
ii) known unknowns; and
iii) unknown unknowns

I don't know if epidemiologists and Neal Ferguson, Fauci, had their time in the sun, their raison d'etre and apotheosis, and if they ferked up royally with their model or not.

But p'raps they could lend some Das risk-management and a Chicago school economist like Jeffrey Sachs

#SatjayitDas