Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

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Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[dont bowl there]

So, have Victorians taken the new restrictions on board?
In particular have the 20-30 year olds changed their behaviour?

It’s all well and good to impose restrictions and fine people when you find them, but until the people start doing the right thing on their own volition: stay at home as much as possible, wear a mask when you go out, Keep your distance, this is going to get a lot lot worse.

There are dumb selfish people everywhere. The vast majority are doing the right thing but you will never have everyone doing the right thing on anything. This isn’t a Victorians are more selfish than others, do you think the people of WA took it more seriously than the people of Victoria?

 

[wal]

There are dumb selfish people everywhere. The vast majority are doing the right thing but you will never have everyone doing the right thing on anything. This isn’t a Victorians are more selfish than others, do you think the people of WA took it more seriously than the people of Victoria?

No, I just think people of WA have better personal hygiene.

 

[Senor M]

There are dumb selfish people everywhere. The vast majority are doing the right thing but you will never have everyone doing the right thing on anything. This isn’t a Victorians are more selfish than others, do you think the people of WA took it more seriously than the people of Victoria?

Of course the people of Western Australia took it more seriously—- 3 of the top 4 posters in this thread come from WA (and I’m the fourth).

That’s why they are out in nightclubs now...

It has nothing to do with the fact it’s the most remote city in the world that put down a hard border, took minimal returning travellers (forcing people from WA to transit through the East Coast) & we’re lucky that they followed the rest of the country into a lockdown before they got community transmission.

 

[wal]

Of course the people of Western Australia took it more seriously—- 3 of the top 4 posters in this thread come from WA (and I’m the fourth).

That’s why they are out in nightclubs now...

It has nothing to do with the fact it’s the most remote city in the world that put down a hard border, took minimal returning travellers (forcing people from WA to transit through the East Coast) & we’re lucky that they followed the rest of the country into a lockdown before they got community transmission.

Why are you still propagating this lie?

 

[Asapartyhat]

No, I just think people of WA have better personal hygiene.

Speak for yourself mate.
I smell like a late night of indulgance,rock lobster and cuban cigars.

 

[Senor M]

Why are you still propagating this lie?

Because I know it’s true!

I know dozens of people that had to fly home via. either Melbourne or Sydney in April & May to get home to WA because WA never opened up enough international capacity for people from there.

 

[kranky al]

Where? While New York and Sweden had massive spikes in ICUs and deaths they have been on the decline. In essence they took a hit in one go.

What we are doing is following a pattern. Unless we can fully eradicate then we are just delaying the inevitable. The Chief Health officer just said the virus hasn't mutated. So we are just drip feeding and prolonging the pain.

If enough people can build herd immunity they can act as a barrier to the elderly and vulnerable. Instead by locking everyone under the one bubble together the second restrictions are lifted it takes off like a bushfire.

Where Sweden and NYC stuffed it was by not shutting nursing homes and putting Covid patients in them.

Now while no one wants permanent lung damage I would actually be open to mixing risk getting the virus quarantine and immunity is created. (Like an 80s Chicken pox Party on steroids).

The only other way is to cleanse it totally. I think a) It is too contagious and you would need Stage 100 to do it. Like panic buy and lock down. Face it Stage 3 is non nonsensical. You go to work on PT, mix with 100s but than can't see anyone else? How is that when you critically think actually doing anything?

The Virus is here for ever. A vaccine may not come. Virus eradication can take 5 years. Even keeping our borders shut that long is nigh on impossible given we are dependent on the rest of the world to survive as a 25 million population.

Sure you can fine the bejeebus out of people (some won't care/can afford it) or jail them then you just spread it through the jails and the workers who are needed there.

I'm curious Bomberboyokay what would your strategy be? Not in terms of political management or Law and Order but how to manage this thing? Because imo lockdowns won't work long term. We will go flat surge lock down for years.

Virus eradication took sa and wa a few months.

victoria just needs to get its shit together and do it once and do it properly

 

[wal]

Because I know it’s true!

I know dozens of people that had to fly home via. either Melbourne or Sydney in April & May to get home to WA because WA never opened up enough international capacity for people from there.

now you are just making yourself look more sad and pathetic. Look at the actual figures, tells quite a different tale

 

[Gavin Excell]

Whispers of bad numbers today Vic press conference

 

[FreeTK]

Virus eradication took sa and wa a few months.

victoria just needs to get its sh*t together and do it once and do it properly

Eradication has never been the national strategy. SA/WA and quite likely achieved elimination, and I think it is fair to say WA/SA pursued an elimination strategy by stealth.

None of those 3 states ever had the numbers of community transmission Victoria had at the beginning of the pandemic. Low levels of community transmission has been a feature of Victorian experience since the start of the pandemic.

I am unaware of any city/nation that has been able to suppress COVID numbers once there is widespread community transmission we are seeing in Melbourne.

I fear that the horse has bolted and it will be many months before we see numbers in Victoria back to acceptable levels.

 

[Senor M]

now you are just making yourself look more sad and pathetic. Look at the actual figures, tells quite a different tale

Moving to personal insults, eh?

Do you really think that these people would just choose to fly into Melbourne first and then fly across to WA (effectively doubling their quarantine period) if they had a choice.

 

[kranky al]

WA may end like Victoria if they aren't careful.
View attachment 909831
These numbers could indicate a new trend in WA, the numbers may not look like much at present, but remember that Victoria had a similar trend early on before things got out of control.

0 of those are local / community transmission - they are all imported ie people flying in to wa.

and unlike victoria we have serious security on those people with 50k fines / 6 months jail for non compliance.

 

[FreeTK]

Because I know it’s true!

I know dozens of people that had to fly home via. either Melbourne or Sydney in April & May to get home to WA because WA never opened up enough international capacity for people from there.

WA Hotel Quarantine program has almost reached its capacity, which is why the WA government worked with Federal government to ensure a cap on numbers to ensure the safety and integrity of the program.

If WA wasn't accepting international arrivals, there would be no need for a cap, as there would be no one quarantining in hotels.

Logic seems to be your enemy.

Do better.

 

[dont bowl there]

Eradication has never been the national strategy. SA/WA and quite likely achieved elimination, and I think it is fair to say WA/SA pursued an elimination strategy by stealth.

None of those 3 states ever had the numbers of community transmission Victoria had at the beginning of the pandemic. Low levels of community transmission has been a feature of Victorian experience since the start of the pandemic.

I am unaware of any city/nation that has been able to suppress COVID numbers once there is widespread community transmission we are seeing in Melbourne.

I fear that the horse has bolted and it will be many months before we see numbers in Victoria back to acceptable levels.

The bolded bit makes no sense, numbers should fall in the next 2-3 weeks and continue to fall for the following 3 weeks of lockdown. If people aren't leaving the house it shouldn't take months for the numbers to go down. If people are still leaving the house and mingling then we will be at worse numbers in "many months". It won't take months for the actions of lockdown to take effect.

 

[Senor M]

WA Hotel Quarantine program has almost reached its capacity, which is why the WA government worked with Federal government to ensure a cap on numbers to ensure the safety and integrity of the program.

If WA wasn't accepting international arrivals, there would be no need for a cap, as there would be no one quarantining in hotels.

Logic seems to be your enemy.

Do better.

Where did I say that WA didn’t accept international arrivals?

Reading seems to be your enemy.

Do better stalker.

 

[wal]

Moving to personal insults, eh?

Do you really think that these people would just choose to fly into Melbourne first and then fly across to WA (effectively doubling their quarantine period) if they had a choice.

look at the actual figures, in fact WA has quarantined a number of Victorian families returning via Perth because there was capacity into Perth due to the WA govt subsidising freight rates for the carriers.

 

[Connoisseur]

Whispers of bad numbers today Vic press conference

We should just cordon off the East and South from the North and Western suburbs, the Yarra river could serve as a rough boundary, where the spread of the virus has got out of control, or just nuke/bomb the hell out of it.

Completely unjust to lump all Melburnians as being equally to blame for the outbreak when in reality it's dimwits from the North/West and their religious/cultural practices that are fully to blame for the situation we are in now, along with Andrews initial incompetence of course.

 

[Senor M]

look at the actual figures, in fact WA has quarantined a number of Victorian families returning via Perth because there was capacity into Perth due to the WA govt subsidising freight rates for the carriers.

Source of these figures (staying that WA took more Victorians than Victoria took WA people)?

You’re calling me out on BS for not backing up my claims, maybe you should back yours up?

 

[FreeTK]

The bolded bit makes no sense, numbers should fall in the next 2-3 weeks and continue to fall for the following 3 weeks of lockdown. If people aren't leaving the house it shouldn't take months for the numbers to go down. If people are still leaving the house and mingling then we will be at worse numbers in "many months". It won't take months for the actions of lockdown to take effect.

The question is will a lockdown now in July have the same effect that it did in March.

The conditions are completely different. Victoria is experiencing it's highest number of daily cases, and all of those cases are locally acquired cases, a high number of which are community transmissions.

When we went in to lockdown in March, the people testing positive were largely returned travellers, and their close contacts.

Unless we have a hard lockdown as they did in Wuhan, I don't think it will severely reduce numbers back down to the pre outbreak numbers (around 10 cases per day).

 

[FreeTK]

Source of these figures (staying that WA took more Victorians than Victoria took WA people)?

You’re calling me out on BS for not backing up my claims, maybe you should back yours up?

Their capacity is based on what they can safely quarantine. Federal government agrees which is why there is now a cap in place of 525 per week.

You seem to want WA to take more travellers than they have capacity for. That is a recipe for disaster.

But that's your thing - Speaking authoritatively about issues you have no knowledge about. (See: your comments that Pakula has no responsibility over Victoria's Hotel Quarantine program).

 

[Senor M]

Whispers of bad numbers today Vic press conference

216 (unconfirmed)

Probably expected with the current trends, will be in the 100’s & 200’s until we get past the incubation period for the first postcode lockdown

 

[Senor M]

Their capacity is based on what they can safely quarantine. Federal government agrees which is why there is now a cap in place of 525 per week.

You seem to want WA to take more travellers than they have capacity for. That is a recipe for disaster.

But that's your thing - Speaking authoritatively about issues you have no knowledge about. (See: your comments that Pakula has no responsibility over Victoria's Hotel Quarantine program).

Not sure what that had to do with my question asking Wal to provide evidence about Victorian’s travelling home from overseas via. WA? (Because he asked me to provide evidence of my claim)


But please—- keep stalking me around BigFooty like a deranged psycho ranting at me.

 

[dont bowl there]

The question is will a lockdown now in July have the same effect that it did in March.

The conditions are completely different. Victoria is experiencing it's highest number of daily cases, and all of those cases are locally acquired cases, a high number of which are community transmissions.

When we went in to lockdown in March, the people testing positive were largely returned travellers, and their close contacts.

Unless we have a hard lockdown as they did in Wuhan, I don't think it will severely reduce numbers back down to the pre outbreak numbers.

So why would that change "in many months"?

 

[wal]

Source of these figures (staying that WA took more Victorians than Victoria took WA people)?

You’re calling me out on BS for not backing up my claims, maybe you should back yours up?

Victoria has had less overseas infections per head of population than any other state.
Victoria is the only state that has had more local transmissions than overseas.

12,243,643 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

 

[FreeTK]

So why would that change "in many months"?

The source of transmission has changed. It isn't returned travellers, it is people in the community.

In terms of ability to reduce numbers quickly, I think our current situation is a much more difficult task.

You're right, we won't know for another 1-2 weeks, but I am not particularly optimistic we will see a dramatic drop, and my sense is it will take a herculean effort to even get numbers under 50 per day.