Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

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Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

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Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

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[juss]

Before you get to live with it you want to check the long term effects reasonably thoroughly

Because they arent looking great for a good percentage of the population

I get that, but the world can't shut down forever. The Government needs a contingency for this scenario that it doesn't go away.

 

[HTT]

We should be preparing for the prospect of not having a vaccine and now. Otherwise, we are putting ourselves at the mercy of an outcome we have no control over.

We are also erroneously extrapolating that a vaccine will eliminate the virus, when most likely it wont. It is always best to assume the worst and plan accordingly, particularly when the desired or hopeful outcome is outside your control.



I've changed my tune on this in recent weeks, where I too was extolling elimination, but having seen the minor resurgency in NZ I realise, an elimination strategy will leave society more exposed to mass outbreaks, because we wouldnt be fortifying our society against the extreme likelihood the virus will re-emerge. We need to adopt the post-COVID mindset and accept this is a very clear demarcation in hisory.

Besides, the Federal government's policy is suppression, not elimination. They should be accompanying that objective with an actual plan - widespread, affordable and rapid testing in workplaces and tracing (which has been a complete bust at this point - the Covidsafe app is useless).

I see your point, however I think going to 0 also allows you to catch a problem much more quickly - as soon as you get a single case outside quarantine you know you have a problem. Whereas when you have a slow but constant flow of cases, how do you know for certain when you have an issue that takes stronger restrictions? We didn't see anything exceptional in Victoria until June 25 (33 new cases) - until then case numbers were no greater than the cedar meats outbreak which ended up being no huge issue. But by that stage it'd been growing since June 12 (4 new cases), who had probably caught it in early June. The virus had been spreading in the background for 3 weeks. Whereas in NZ as soon as they had a positive in the community, they knew right then with certainty their measures were no longer appropriate. It was probably only spreading unchecked for a bit over a week. They've got a 7 day average of around 10 new cases, and went to stage 3 a week ago. When we had a 7 day average of 10 (June 17), stage 3 was two weeks away (and widespread stage 3 was 3 weeks away).

I concede NZ's outbreak still needs to play out, and the results will speak for themselves. But I believe at the moment they are in a much stronger position and will be back to 0 within a few weeks. The good news there is the at least for the next month or so, the strategies for suppression and elimination in Victoria are identical, and we can see what happens in NZ (and NSW for that matter) before making a decision. If the results support suppression over elimination then no worries at all.

 

[HTT]

Look on the bright side - influenza is more or less non-existent in Victoria this year. 10 cases a week apparently. Sutton said you're more likely to have Coronavirus than the flu if you have the symptoms

Showing everyone why Coronavirus is that much more dangerous than the flu. Given the same restrictions, what flattens coronavirus sends the flu to the depths of hell.

 

[Augmented Boat]

Showing everyone why Coronavirus is that much more dangerous than the flu. Given the same restrictions, what flattens coronavirus sends the flu to the depths of hell.

If this was Ebola or some airborne virus we'd be ****ed

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I get that, but the world can't shut down forever. The Government needs a contingency for this scenario that it doesn't go away.

the only alternative to whats going on now is that everyone goes about their life accordingly.

As risk people (old, existing conditons etc) stay inside. Young people continue normal life and keep the economy going.

IMO its getting the point now the solution is becoming worse than the actual disease.

I absolute guarantee more people will end up committing suicide from COVID then actually die from it - with the current mortality rate of COVID being 1.8% that doesn't quite stack up for me.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Showing everyone why Coronavirus is that much more dangerous than the flu. Given the same restrictions, what flattens coronavirus sends the flu to the depths of hell.

well obviously.

One has a vaccine........

 

[Forward Press]

the only alternative to whats going on now is that everyone goes about their life accordingly.

As risk people (old, existing conditons etc) stay inside. Young people continue normal life and keep the economy going.

IMO its getting the point now the solution is becoming worse than the actual disease.

I absolute guarantee more people will end up committing suicide from COVID then actually die from it - with the current mortality rate of COVID being 1.8% that doesn't quite stack up for me.

The example of Sweden proves that 'business as usual' (or at least some semblance of it) while asking vulnerable people to quarantine themselves does not work - the virus still worked its way through them, as there is always some element of interaction with the outside world - their carers don't stay with them 24/7, their food needs to be brought in, medical care still is provided from the outside etc.

The often-quoted 'but what about suicide' is not reflected in reality either - western Europe countries have had COVID deaths far outstrip typical annual suicide numbers for months now. It is quite possible more people will die from suicide in 2020 than COVID in Australia, but this does not in itself justify relaxing restrictions or letting the virus run its course.

 

[swingdog]

the only alternative to whats going on now is that everyone goes about their life accordingly.

As risk people (old, existing conditons etc) stay inside. Young people continue normal life and keep the economy going.

IMO its getting the point now the solution is becoming worse than the actual disease.

I absolute guarantee more people will end up committing suicide from COVID then actually die from it - with the current mortality rate of COVID being 1.8% that doesn't quite stack up for me.

Thanks for bringing something new to this thread.

 

[kranky al]

If this was Ebola or some airborne virus we'd be f’ed

1) ebola isnt airborne

Source: https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/06-october-2014/en/

2) covid is

Source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/experts-say-covid-19-is-airborne-heres-how-you-can-stay-safe

 

[HirdsTheWord]

The example of Sweden proves that 'business as usual' (or at least some semblance of it) while asking vulnerable people to quarantine themselves does not work - the virus still worked its way through them, as there is always some element of interaction with the outside world - their carers don't stay with them 24/7, their food needs to be brought in, medical care still is provided from the outside etc.

The often-quoted 'but what about suicide' is not reflected in reality either - western Europe countries have had COVID deaths far outstrip typical annual suicide numbers for months now. It is quite possible more people will die from suicide in 2020 than COVID in Australia, but this does not in itself justify relaxing restrictions or letting the virus run its course.

I don't disagree with most of it but we cant keep doing this forever. Though your comparison with Australia and Sweden is not 100% accurate. Sweden never bothered to minimize cases, Australia did. So we are in a much better position once we get Victoria under control.

RE suicide - you cant ignore that if it ends up being a reality., again in Australia our numbers are much better than Europe, mostly because our level of healthcare is better. Having more people die from suicide then actually die of the disease in Australia just does not make sense - there has already been record numbers reported by Beyond Blue, Life Line etc etcso i reckon its a real issue.

I'm not sure what the answer is but The government cant keep propping up job keeper indefinitely - and unless people can back to some sort of normality then the economy wont be able to sustain itself.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Thanks for bringing something new to this thread.

the threads 393 pages long - im sure there was some double up after page 10 you tit head.

 

[Forward Press]

I don't disagree with most of it but we cant keep doing this forever. Though your comparison with Australia and Sweden is not 100% accurate. Sweden never bothered to minimize cases, Australia did. So we are in a much better position once we get Victoria under control.

RE suicide - you cant ignore that if it ends up being a reality., again in Australia our numbers are much better than Europe, mostly because our level of healthcare is better. Having more people die from suicide then actually die of the disease in Australia just does not make sense - there has already been record numbers reported by Beyond Blue, Life Line etc etcso i reckon its a real issue.

I'm not sure what the answer is but The government cant keep propping up job keeper indefinitely - and unless people can back to some sort of normality then the economy wont be able to sustain itself.

Of course it's a real issue - it's an avoidable death that will no doubt rise the longer lockdowns continue, I do not deny that - but the alternative is less palatable. 'Business as usual' makes no sense health wise.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Of course it's a real issue - it's an avoidable death that will no doubt rise the longer lock downs continue, I do not deny that - but the alternative is less palatable. 'Business as usual' makes no sense health wise.

OK so on he flip side, what happens when we are still doing this dance and job keeper ends? When does it become not palatable?

I get its the right thing to save as many lives as possible - but whats the cost?

 

[Kwality]

I'm optimistic about a vaccine being available early next year. There are already dozens in stage 2&3 of clinical trials including the most repudiable developed by the Oxford group and our own Flinders Medical Centre. It all really looks positive and being fast-tracked like no other vaccine.

The ordinary flu jab has not been perfected yet, the cure to the common cold.

 

[Kwality]

OK so on he flip side, what happens when we are still doing this dance and job keeper ends? When does it become not palatable?

I get its the right thing to save as many lives as possible - but whats the cost?

sad but true.

Here today, fruit close to falling off the trees for lack of labour.
How does Australia manufacture anything in the future?

 

[Forward Press]

OK so on he flip side, what happens when we are still doing this dance and job keeper ends? When does it become not palatable?

I get its the right thing to save as many lives as possible - but whats the cost?

I think everyone is in agreement it is not sustainable to keep it going indefinitely but I am confident that our governments will figure out the right balance. If in time it turns out a vaccine is not possible - then sadly it would have to be allowed to run through the population at a controlled pace.

Either way it is far preferable to be in Australia's current situation than say Europe and USA.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

"We needz to wurry aboobts the ecunemy. Da cuwa is wurst den da duseez" - Some muppet repeating Andrew Bolt talking points.

The reason our economy is f*cked is because this ridiculous false dichotomy stopped us from taking the necessary measures that actually would have (all-but) eliminated the virus and saved the economy. Your economy doesn't function when you have a raging deadly disease spreading everywhere.

Look at China's GDP figures. Then look at the US GDP figures. Look at Sweden's GDP doing worse than several other European nations. You need to suppress the virus before you can fix the economy.

Australia could have been essentially virus-free months ago and the economy would be humming along nicely compared to the rest of the world. And now the people - who insisted we don't do anything to stop the virus - claim that their bullsh*t logic that screwed us in the first place is the only solution. 'Don't close airports - it will hurt the economy'. 'Ban Chinese travelers but not US travelers, (because they are white like us)'. Now all of Australia's current cases are originally from the US, not China.

It's true that Victoria has copped the worst of both worlds because we outsourced the core public function of quarantine operations to profit-driven security companies of all things. That's why we can't afford to get cold feet again and half-suppress the virus before p*ssying out again, thus achieving absolutely nothing other than hurting the economy in the short term and even more over a longer period.

 

[Kwality]

Yes but having two consecutive year’s where all of the Victorian club’s are playing with no games and crowds in Melbourne is going to put the AFL in a financial shithole. I just can’t see them proceeding if it goes down that path.

We will know before the 2021 season, unless the AFL & the clubs dont lodge their financials.
Cant see the AFLPA beating their chest.

 

[Kwality]

I think everyone is in agreement it is not sustainable to keep it going indefinitely but I am confident that our governments will figure out the right balance. If in time it turns out a vaccine is not possible - then sadly it would have to be allowed to run through the population at a controlled pace.

Either way it is far preferable to be in Australia's current situation than say Europe and USA.

Its effectively doing that to front line workers. These people are returning to work physically recovered, not so mentally.

 

[Kwality]

This is what has happened with Eagles games yeah? Low take up by the older members who don't want to risk going.

Were games limited to members?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

"We needz to wurry aboobts the ecunemy. Da cuwa is wurst den da duseez" - Some muppet repeating Andrew Bolt talking points.

The reason our economy is f*cked is because this ridiculous false dichotomy stopped us from taking the necessary measures that actually would have (all-but) eliminated the virus and saved the economy. Your economy doesn't function when you have a raging deadly disease spreading everywhere.

Look at China's GDP figures. Then look at the US GDP figures. Look at Sweden's GDP doing worse than several other European nations. You need to suppress the virus before you can fix the economy.

Australia could have been essentially virus-free months ago and the economy would be humming along nicely compared to the rest of the world. And now the people - who insisted we don't do anything to stop the virus - claim that their bullsh*t logic that screwed us in the first place is the only solution. 'Don't close airports - it will hurt the economy'. 'Ban Chinese travelers but not US travelers, (because they are white like us)'. Now all of Australia's current cases are originally from the US, not China.

It's true that Victoria has copped the worst of both worlds because we outsourced the core public function of quarantine operations to profit-driven security companies of all things. That's why we can't afford to get cold feet again and half-suppress the virus before p*ssying out again, thus achieving absolutely nothing other than hurting the economy in the short term and even more over a longer period.

No ones saying we need to fix the economy right now. But have we an ever growing unemployment rate whilst still being propped up by the government is not a good thing - and it needs to be addressed otherwise when the Government funding ends it will be a disaster.

You might not seem worried about the economy but i am - Australia is unlikely to see a surplus in the next decade and the current unemployment rate is rapidly rising and does not include people who are stood down, working reduced hours etc etc. What are these people supposed to do on a long term basis?

Its an overly shitful thing to make fun of people worried about this and not sure why you are poking fun at other opinions - its a ****ing forum mate. Deal with it.

 

[Rich]

We will know before the 2021 season, unless the AFL & the clubs dont lodge their financials.
Cant see the AFLPA beating their chest.

Might be some interesting meetings going on soon between HQ, clubs and the AFLPA.

Have the list changes for next season even been communicated to clubs?

We might get to November or so with all state borders still up and the very real proposition that hubs look likely for the upcoming season.

Lots of unknowns, and not many solutions to the possibilities.

 

[swingdog]

You might not seem worried about the economy but i am - Australia is unlikely to see a surplus in the next decade and the current unemployment rate is rapidly rising and does not include people who are stood down, working reduced hours etc etc. What are these people supposed to do on a long term basis?

If here's one thing you'd hope would come out of this message is the death of the ridiculous idea that we need to be in surplus.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

If here's one thing you'd hope would come out of this message is the death of the ridiculous idea that we need to be in surplus.

.................................what

 

[Forward Press]

.................................what

During times like these surplus should not be the short term goal - in order to create jobs, the government must necessarily must go into debt and start spending. Things like infrastructure projects, stimulus packages and incentives for industries.