lol just lol
Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”
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Does anyone here think that we will ever get to the stage in Australia (before vaccine) of 28 days of no community spread nationwide? I have my doubts although NSW have had a very good run recently.
I don't think we will unless all the borders stay shut until each state eliminates community transmission
- Aug 16, 2009
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Which states currently have community transmission?
Only Victoria?
I thought I read NSW is 11days community transmission free. When was the last case of community transmission in Qld? I think they only have 7 active cases.
If there aren't any quarantine breaches then we'd surely be getting close to that mark for everywhere except Vic.
The risk is if one Vic opens up and there is still some community transmission, then it gets into NSW, then QLD etc, it means we will never quite get there (even though the virus might be controlled in those states).
You do raise a good point, if we get there far sooner than the Government thinks, will they actually open up?
If all states can copy the way NSW has been contact tracing. They have had community spread for a couple of months and are looking free from community spread now.
3 unknown cases in NSW last night. I think they will stamp out these particular cases pretty quickly but this just demonstrates how challenging a month of no community COVID will be.
Their premier said it won't happen until a vaccine. QLD is also keeping its border shut with NSW until that milestone is achieved.
The virus is going to be with us for a while, it will never go away, what happens if a vaccine is never found, like their has not been for a lot of others in our life time. Do you stay locked down for ever. At some point you have to learn to live with this. I always thought the initial lock downs were so it gave governments time to have the health systems at a level that they could cope with it, it's clear the response from nearly all state premiers now has gone past it being about health. The impact the lockdowns and border closures now are doing as much damage financially and mentally, as what the virus would do.
NSw has 48 hours to link the new cases to known clusters or the border will remain shut.
Sans killing as many folk
- Mar 11, 2012
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Poverty kills people too, or at least reduces life expectancy. That isn't as obvious as Covid deaths right now but the idea that the lockdowns are saving lives overall Is not proven, and if you calculate on years of life lost they're probably costing more.
I thought someone would say this hence the 'as many'.
But out of interest what calculation are you doing to come to the lock downs are costing more? Really interested in seeing some data or info on this.
I am fully aware that the lock down/poverty/avoiding covid spread doesn't come at a cost.
My take on quarantine not killing as many people as a free running covid, is based on what we have seen in other parts of the world in relation to death count.
There seem to be three models that have worked, with pros and cons for each:
1. Lockdown early, eliminate and maintain: examples are China, NZ and WA. The risk is in maintaining, as NZ saw, you are very vulnerable to re-infection so need to lockdown hard and early if it occurs
2. Partial lockdown that allows virus to spread at a controlled rate, while economy can still function: example sweden, NSW. This is a medium term strategy, they have fared worse than group 1. Initially but will fare far better then any from group 1. who end up with widespread outbreaks.
3. Reign in large outbreak with severe lockdown, then maintain (Italy, UK, Melbourne): once the virus is rampant this seems to be the only way to reign it in and gives these places the chance to adopt startegy 1 or 2 once they have achieved it
Just letting the virus run wild seems like the worst strategy, as your economy will contract due to the social impact, while people also die. Yes, long term you will get immunity, but if that is the goal, you would be better off with strategy 2.
Never before has a budget surplus raised so many eyebrows
While other states and the Commonwealth plunge head-first into eye-watering deficits Western Australia defies that trend in an emphatic way, and the Government is making no apology for it, writes political reporter Jacob Kagi.
Both Federal and state budgets now have an assumption on the WA border opening around April 2021. Funnily enough, the WA election is in March 2021. But of course borders are not a political tool and this is a coincidence.
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- Sep 10, 2015
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My position exactly:
gbdeclaration.org
Great Barrington Declaration and Petition
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection
gbdeclaration.org
- Feb 5, 2009
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My position exactly:
Great Barrington Declaration and Petition
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection
It's a position that unsurprisingly came out of a libertarian think tank, and is pretty much the opposite view of every major health organization in the world.
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Are you similarly suspicious of our vaccine strategy? Herd immunity is the basic logic behind vaccines.
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As per my original point, how is the herd immunity strategy going with the flu?
I should note that adding to my suspicion is that one of the authors of the declaration is the guy who used his wife to target candidates for his infamous "scientific" antibody study via Facebook using the incentive of them receiving immune status if found positive, allowing them to return to work and other activities. Really solid unbiased methodology there, which is probably why the outlandish-sounding findings did turn out to be garbage.
Further reading today shows me that another of the 3 authors published findings early in the pandemic that proved to be rubbish as well.
So this is dodgy as, IMO.
I'm all for changing the plan as new information comes to light. Doesn't seem like the authors of that are though.
Do lockdowns have a dark side? Absolutely.
But how do you author a covid plan in October 2020 and completely ignore airborne transmission?
How do you plan for "Focused Protection" of the elderly exactly? Who are these immune people that will supposedly be used to staff the nursing homes?
It seems both biased and extremely flimsy on detail to me.
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Should be noted that the authors have done no modelling to support their hypothesis too.
Another problem is that these sorts of discussions then rope in the "COVID is a hoax" or your Craig Kelly types which just kill any credibility.
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