News Coronavirus Thread

[Horace]

I'm looking forward to someone launching a new share market index. Something along the liens of the AAVTP. Australian All Varieties of Toilet Paper.

Surely to control supplies the stuff will soon be listed for sale on the ASX,

 

[andana]

Italy is a strange one.
Much higher dead rate compared to western European countries. ~6% v ~ 0.5%
Wonder if due to high number of severe cases they are not testing minor or asymptomatic cases.
Health system there and older population would skew this too.

Italy started out testing widely, then narrowed the focus so that now, the authorities don’t have to process hundreds of thousands of tests. But there’s a trade-off: They can’t see what’s coming and are trying to curb the movements of the country’s entire population of 60 million people to contain the disease. Even Pope Francis, who has a cold and delivered his Sunday blessing over the internet from inside the Vatican, said he felt “caged in the library.”
Thousands of miles away in South Korea, authorities have a different response to a similar-sized outbreak. They are testing hundreds of thousands of people for infections and tracking potential carriers like detectives, using cell phone and satellite technology.
Both countries saw their first cases of the disease called COVID-19 in late January. South Korea has since reported 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 confirmed cases, after testing more than 222,000 people. In contrast, Italy has had 1,016 deaths and identified more than 15,000 cases after carrying out more than 73,000 tests on an unspecified number of people.
Epidemiologists say it is not possible to compare the numbers directly. But some say the dramatically different outcomes point to an important insight: Aggressive and sustained testing is a powerful tool for fighting the virus.

 

[Black2Blue]

And on a lighter note...

 

[Black2Blue]

I fully expect the AFL season to be a write-off. We are just at the tip of the iceberg in terms of community transmission, and containing the virus within a couple of months would be wildly optimistic. We are heading into the flu season which will add another burden onto the health system. And there is evidence enough that the federal and state governments will not take radical steps to contain and minimise transmission, rather adopting wishful half-baked, even contradictory policies of mitigation and business-as-usual. It is no surprise that Western societies like Australia are unable to adapt to a controlled environment such as in Singapore or South Korea. My money would be on a postponement that becomes a cancelled season.

 

[Event Horizon]

I keep thinking could we have done something more to stop this - and I reckon the answer is no. We have stopped the flights from China relatively early, and only a few cases got here directly from the source. But the other countries didn't react and as a result, the virus got here from Iran, Italy, US etc. Could we have stopped ALL international flights? Not really.

 

[North1411]

If you don't have a co-morbidity, e.g. like Cardiovascular disease, Chronic Respiratory illness, Diabetes, Hypertension and Cancer, then the death rate is 0.9%. Then if you are under 50 years of age, then it is even less likely you will die. So if your relatively healthy this will be a mild to moderate cold. Just be aware of your family, friends and colleagues who may be in a risk factor, and avoid them if you feel unwell or are worried you may have contracted the virus. In general though try not to panic and focus on what you can control, like having a good immune system. Make your sleeping well, increase your vegetable and fruit intake for vitamin C, or supplement it, improve your vit D, supplement it, get in the sun and eat mushrooms (the normal kind, not the other kind) and improve your zinc and vitamin B.

 

[Event Horizon]

If you don't have a co-morbidity, e.g. like Cardiovascular disease, Chronic Respiratory illness, Diabetes, Hypertension and Cancer, then the death rate is 0.9%. Then if you are under 50 years of age, then it is even less likely you will die. So if your relatively healthy this will be a mild to moderate cold. Just be aware of your family, friends and colleagues who may be in a risk factor, and avoid them if you feel unwell or are worried you may have contracted the virus. In general though try not to panic and focus on what you can control, like having a good immune system. Make your sleeping well, increase your vegetable and fruit intake for vitamin C, or supplement it, improve your vit D, supplement it, get in the sun and eat mushrooms (the normal kind, not the other kind) and improve your zinc and vitamin B.

That's all true, however the stats say that around 15% of people will require intensive care. If a million people got infected, our hospitals wouldn't cope with 150,000 new patients. Or even half that.

 

[MagicDaw]

I fully expect the AFL season to be a write-off. We are just at the tip of the iceberg in terms of community transmission, and containing the virus within a couple of months would be wildly optimistic. We are heading into the flu season which will add another burden onto the health system. And there is evidence enough that the federal and state governments will not take radical steps to contain and minimise transmission, rather adopting wishful half-baked, even contradictory policies of mitigation and business-as-usual. It is no surprise that Western societies like Australia are unable to adapt to a controlled environment such as in Singapore or South Korea. My money would be on a postponement that becomes a cancelled season.

Will be very important to get those flu shots from the first of April. People in risk groups (old people and people with other health problems) should be getting it ASAP when available. A secondary flu infection together with a COVID-19 one would put them at very high risk!!!!

 

[muttley45]

Can anyone tell me if the detection test currently being used is for Antigen or Antibody ?

 

[MagicDaw]

That's all true, however the stats say that around 15% of people will require intensive care. If a million people got infected, our hospitals wouldn't cope with 150,000 new patients. Or even half that.

That seems to be the number floating around, although I am not sure what that is based on. Italy has the highest infected rate per million in 250 people infected. This would mean 5000 cases in Australia. From these 1 in 14 is severe/critical (also highest in any country). About 360 for Australia at that rate.
Cases and deaths/country on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - updated continually

 

[MagicDaw]

Can anyone tell me if the detection test currently being used is for Antigen or Antibody ?

PCR based

 

[MagicDaw]

PCR based

Which means it's slow (relatively) and needs skilled people to do it.

 

[DesertRoo]

Interesting case study from Padua, Italy.
Basically a small village, with remote access only, they blanket tested and then isolated and treated the sick.

the rates of mortality and infection basically disappeared.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.regione.veneto.it/article-detail?articleId=4311732


2nd article. The difference between the Venetian model, which has had high mortality rate.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/09/news/coronavirus_il_modello_veneto_dove_il_contagio_cresce_meno-250707654/?ref=search

 

[The Nostradamus]

Playing to empty stadiums would occur before a write off of the season

 

[giantroo]

 

[Black2Blue]

I keep thinking could we have done something more to stop this - and I reckon the answer is no. We have stopped the flights from China relatively early, and only a few cases got here directly from the source. But the other countries didn't react and as a result, the virus got here from Iran, Italy, US etc. Could we have stopped ALL international flights? Not really.

I think retrospect will tell us plenty once this has passed through the globe and the successful and unsuccessful responses become clear. The two countries that have been the most effective in reducing the spread to date have been Singapore and South Korea. For Singapore, it has been a case of (i) closing borders (all land, air, and sea ports have had full testing and quarantining regimes put in place), (ii) a policy of hyper-cleanliness, with all public places being cleaned constantly, (iii) and a vigilant treatment program for Covid patients and their contacts. South Korea's success is put down to its prolific testing regime (they are testing more than any country per capita) and their follow up, tracing contract paths through detective-like procedures.

In theory Australia could have done more already, but politics and economics have driven the response almost as much as the health aspect. Why were flights banned from China, Iran, and Korea, but not Italy, and more recently the US? These were clearly political decisions. And in the case of the Grand Prix, and the relationship with Italy, protecting an economic interest. It is already exposing how little science there is in our economic policies, as the long-term costs will far outweigh the contract losses with the Grand Prix and the like. Our economy is run like a corner shop. Ironically, the freedoms we are used to in Australia that are powerful factors in times of war, make it much harder to adopt a policy of self-discipline in the case of pandemic. But, having said that, we are still going to cope better than Italy or the US, so I would hope our hospital system doesn't reach that situation of making ethical choices as to who should be provided intensive care and who should be sacrificed.

 

[sbdan]

In positive news, I found 6 rolls of toilet paper in the back of a cupboard this morning.

We've run out. There is none left in Cairns, so I've been taking all my dumps at work.

Dunno how I'm going to last the weekend.

 

[Black2Blue]

Playing to empty stadiums would occur before a write off of the season

That will only last until a player, coach, umpire or water bottle kid tests positive. As soon as a club is affected, the competition will be distorted so the season loses its credibility and clubs will pull the pin. I hope a few games take place just for the sake of getting a dose of footy on the screen, but can't honestly see it lasting long.

 

[GarnerSmash]

We've run out. There is none left in Cairns, so I've been taking all my dumps at work.

Dunno how I'm going to last the weekend.

Take some TP from work. Ive got my eye on two spare rolls sitting on a shelf.

 

[DesertRoo]

Another interesting case study is the outbreak of smallpox in vozrozhdeniye islands. Basically a handful of people contracted the deadly disease. They managed to isolate the town and within a couple of weeks no more cases.

I know probably not the best reassurance but we’re much better equip at dealing with this things. We’ll be ok.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2415-soviet-smallpox-outbreak-confirmed/

 

[Event Horizon]

I think retrospect will tell us plenty once this has passed through the globe and the successful and unsuccessful responses become clear. The two countries that have been the most effective in reducing the spread to date have been Singapore and South Korea. For Singapore, it has been a case of (i) closing borders (all land, air, and sea ports have had full testing and quarantining regimes put in place), (ii) a policy of hyper-cleanliness, with all public places being cleaned constantly, (iii) and a vigilant treatment program for Covid patients and their contacts. South Korea's success is put down to its prolific testing regime (they are testing more than any country per capita) and their follow up, tracing contract paths through detective-like procedures.

In theory Australia could have done more already, but politics and economics have driven the response almost as much as the health aspect. Why were flights banned from China, Iran, and Korea, but not Italy, and more recently the US? These were clearly political decisions. And in the case of the Grand Prix, and the relationship with Italy, protecting an economic interest. It is already exposing how little science there is in our economic policies, as the long-term costs will far outweigh the contract losses with the Grand Prix and the like. Our economy is run like a corner shop. Ironically, the freedoms we are used to in Australia that are powerful factors in times of war, make it much harder to adopt a policy of self-discipline in the case of pandemic. But, having said that, we are still going to cope better than Italy or the US, so I would hope our hospital system doesn't reach that situation of making ethical choices as to who should be provided intensive care and who should be sacrificed.

How do you ban flights from Italy, when a person coming from, say, Dubai, could have been in Italy? There are no direct flights from Italy, yet a person from anywhere in Europe could travel to Frankfurt by train for example, then fly from there to Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi. Same with Iran.

 

[muttley45]

How long before supermarket shelves are bare of more than just dunny rolls, hand sanitiser, and tissues ?

 

[Event Horizon]

That seems to be the number floating around, although I am not sure what that is based on. Italy has the highest infected rate per million in 250 people infected. This would mean 5000 cases in Australia. From these 1 in 14 is severe/critical (also highest in any country). About 360 for Australia at that rate.
Cases and deaths/country on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - updated continually

Italian epidemic is yet to stop growing exponentially. So their numbers will still get worse before they get better.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Billy Not Really]

Okay, great.

Now close the borders. Events like these are the reasons why a globalist society is only a negative outcome in every aspect.