Coronavirus

[Hawk Dork]

I have no issues with how they have managed the health issue. I am slightly worried that he is so obsessed with trying to preserve the surplus that he will undercook fiscal stimulus.

The RBA has been begging Treasury to loosen the purse strings for months. If the government waits til the May budget to announce its package (as its indicated it might) we will be well into recession before the spending takes effect.

We really shouldn’t be going into a negative growth period with interest rates already at 0.5%. It leaves us very little space to move. The current government needs to wear some blame for putting too much reliance on monetary policy to prop up the economy.

The stimulus suggested seems to be tax breaks to bring forward investments.
So business buys something (from China) to improve their productivity (reduce wages) in the hope of getting it cheaper because of the tax write off.
Cant see how thats going to drag more customers through the doors to keep the economy going ???

Then the other suggestion of reducing deeming rates for pensioners.
This is giving a little extra money to the richest pensioners who have money invested who obviously dont currently need it for day to day expenses.
Dont see how thats going to get them to spend more to keep people employed ???

 

[Power Raid]

I have no issues with how they have managed the health issue. I am slightly worried that he is so obsessed with trying to preserve the surplus that he will undercook fiscal stimulus.

The RBA has been begging Treasury to loosen the purse strings for months. If the government waits til the May budget to announce its package (as its indicated it might) we will be well into recession before the spending takes effect.

We really shouldn’t be going into a negative growth period with interest rates already at 0.5%. It leaves us very little space to move. The current government needs to wear some blame for putting too much reliance on monetary policy to prop up the economy.

we should go into recession if that's where the economy needs to go. governments panicking and getting worked up about their own jobs because of a fear of recession is far more dangerous, as we have seen.

A sprinkle of stimulus sure but not wholesale. This is a 3-6 month issue, impacting an otherwise robust economy.

 

[kranky al]

we should go into recession if that's where the economy needs to go. governments panicking and getting worked up about their own jobs because of a fear of recession is far more dangerous, as we have seen.

A sprinkle of stimulus sure but not wholesale. This is a 3-6 month issue, impacting an otherwise robust economy.

Where do you get robust economy from?

the only thing propping us up is immigration. We went into a per capita recession ages ago.

 

[Power Raid]

Where do you get robust economy from?

the only thing propping us up is immigration. We went into a per capita recession ages ago.

One can't be so ungrateful that they'd ignore we are the wealthiest people on the planet with fabulous incomes and fabulous GDP per capita and GDP PPP.

I can't think of a better place to be!

 

[Power Raid]

Where do you get robust economy from?

the only thing propping us up is immigration. We went into a per capita recession ages ago.

 

[kranky al]

View attachment 836366

These are lovely graphs but we are talking about the economy not personal wealth stats here - you could post stats like this at the worst of the gfc - thats nice

But its got f}## all to do with how the economy is currently performing - and its tanking

 

[kranky al]

One can't be so ungrateful that they'd ignore we are the wealthiest people on the planet with fabulous incomes and fabulous GDP per capita and GDP PPP.

I can't think of a better place to be!




View attachment 836362

Btw wa has been in a recession for around 3 years now - not really looking forward to the whole country doing the same given that the liberals have managed to more than double laybarrs detttt without a gfc and their antipathy to stimulus spending.

 

[Power Raid]

Btw wa has been in a recession for around 3 years now - not really looking forward to the whole country doing the same given that the liberals have managed to more than double laybarrs detttt without a gfc and their antipathy to stimulus spending.

nice deflection from your incorrect assertions regarding Australia's robust economy

now you leap to WA which has one of the strongest economies in the world and just easing back from highs. Yet you forget every 20 years WA has a boom that makes your eyes water........and it's almost 20 years since the last one.

What a great place we live, yet some ungrateful people can never be satisfied.......or honest with themselves.

 

[Power Raid]

These are lovely graphs but we are talking about the economy not personal wealth stats here - you could post stats like this at the worst of the gfc - thats nice

But its got f}## all to do with how the economy is currently performing - and its tanking

please feel free to post links to support your claims

as highlighted wealth - tick
gdp - tick
gdp ppp - tick

whingers and moaners unsatisfied - tick

 

[Gough]

please feel free to post links to support your claims

as highlighted wealth - tick
gdp - tick
gdp ppp - tick

whingers and moaners unsatisfied - tick

When the deficit was half of what it is today you thought our future was mortgaged and we'd sold our future up the shitter? What's changed?

 

[Power Raid]

When the deficit was half of what it is today you thought our future was mortgaged and we'd sold our future up the shitter? What's changed?

It’s called generational theft, where Rudd transferred wealth from the youth to the established and wealthy to preserve his job.

It will take decades to repay and so far I have been proven right.

So nothing has changed other than the permanent loss of industry and the associated jobs due to the FX being pushed higher with over stimulus.

Was Rudd’s job really worth it? His party didn’t think so

 

[kranky al]

please feel free to post links to support your claims

as highlighted wealth - tick
gdp - tick
gdp ppp - tick

whingers and moaners unsatisfied - tick

I guess if you are sitting pretty then everyone is right?

im in a town thats lost 1/4 of its population in the last three years with compnies that have been around for 50-100 years going broke almost weekly.

at one stage there was just 4 shops open in the mall

the flow on effects of 9000 people moving away from a town of justunder 40k is devastating - this has been repeated in towns all over wa.

Heres the thing but -

This is not just a per capita recession - which btw weve been in since 2018

source :


but now looking at a real recession

Source:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Australia’s economy will record its first recession since 1991 as the hit from China’s virus-induced slowdown is amplified by slumping confidence and domestic disruptions from the outbreak intensifying Down Under, according to Bloomberg Economics’s James McIntyre.


Gross domestic product will fall 0.4 percentage point in the first three months of the year and 0.3 percentage point in the second quarter, ending a 28-1/2-year stretch of economic growth, he said in a report Monday.


“Isolations and domestic disruptions to contain the spread of the virus will have a mounting economic impact, which is likely to result in a further GDP contraction in 2Q and potentially beyond,” McIntyre said. “Stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, will help to reduce the damage, but is unlikely to be enough to offset the impacts.”




GDP will expand by just 0.4% in 2020, he forecasts, some 1.5 percentage points below his pre-coronavirus estimate.


The Reserve Bank cut interest rates last week and money markets are pricing in a further reduction in April, which would bring it to the estimated lower bound of 0.25% and open the door to unconventional policy. The government is finalizing a fiscal “boost” that could amount to A$10 billion($6.6 billion) to support firms struggling with cash flow and help them keep on employees.


McIntyre predicts large budget deficits ahead as the automatic stabilizers -- increased welfare payments and reduced tax collection -- begin to take hold. That’s on top of the fiscal stimulus needed to boost demand and confidence.
Alan Oster, chief economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., expects the RBA will deploy unconventional policy as early as May, after reducing the cash rate to its estimated lower bound of 0.25% in April.
He sees the preferred option as yield-curve control -- setting a target level for government bond yields at a specific duration -- with the aim of flattening the yield curve and lowering the cost of debt funding.
Panic Selling
An all-out price war between the world’s biggest oil producers is adding to the prospect of a recession as the coronavirus wreaks havoc across the world. Panic reigned in currency markets Monday as orders from traders and algorithmic machines snowballed.


That saw the Australian dollar plunge almost 5% in less than 20 minutes, the biggest one-day decline since 2008. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index slumped

Households and businesses are woefully unready to keep Australia's economy afloat | Greg Jericho

The economy depends on exports and government spending – we are not prepared for the impact of the coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

There is a chance today's GDP number could signal Australia is already in recession

Some of Australia's top economists explain what to expect from today's GDP announcement and why Australia might already be in recession.

www.abc.net.au

Good article from an economist explaining why and what we can do about it here:

The Next Recession We Have to Have

The only uncertainty surrounding an impending recession in Australia is when it will happen. How we prepare now will map | Faculty of Business & Economics

fbe.unimelb.edu.au

 

[Power Raid]

I guess if you are sitting pretty then everyone is right?

im in a town thats lost 1/4 of its population in the last three years with compnies that have been around for 50-100 years going broke almost weekly.

at one stage there was just 4 shops open in the mall

the flow on effects of 9000 people moving away from a town of justunder 40k is devastating - this has been repeated in towns all over wa.

Heres the thing but -

This is not just a per capita recession - which btw weve been in since 2018

source :


but now looking at a real recession

Source:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Australia’s economy will record its first recession since 1991 as the hit from China’s virus-induced slowdown is amplified by slumping confidence and domestic disruptions from the outbreak intensifying Down Under, according to Bloomberg Economics’s James McIntyre.


Gross domestic product will fall 0.4 percentage point in the first three months of the year and 0.3 percentage point in the second quarter, ending a 28-1/2-year stretch of economic growth, he said in a report Monday.


“Isolations and domestic disruptions to contain the spread of the virus will have a mounting economic impact, which is likely to result in a further GDP contraction in 2Q and potentially beyond,” McIntyre said. “Stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, will help to reduce the damage, but is unlikely to be enough to offset the impacts.”




GDP will expand by just 0.4% in 2020, he forecasts, some 1.5 percentage points below his pre-coronavirus estimate.



oh and please cite journalists who know what they are talking about. The ABC clearly doesn't know what a recession is; perhaps the kid who wrote it is only 12 and doesn't know the definition or experienced one.


The Reserve Bank cut interest rates last week and money markets are pricing in a further reduction in April, which would bring it to the estimated lower bound of 0.25% and open the door to unconventional policy. The government is finalizing a fiscal “boost” that could amount to A$10 billion($6.6 billion) to support firms struggling with cash flow and help them keep on employees.


McIntyre predicts large budget deficits ahead as the automatic stabilizers -- increased welfare payments and reduced tax collection -- begin to take hold. That’s on top of the fiscal stimulus needed to boost demand and confidence.
Alan Oster, chief economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., expects the RBA will deploy unconventional policy as early as May, after reducing the cash rate to its estimated lower bound of 0.25% in April.
He sees the preferred option as yield-curve control -- setting a target level for government bond yields at a specific duration -- with the aim of flattening the yield curve and lowering the cost of debt funding.
Panic Selling
An all-out price war between the world’s biggest oil producers is adding to the prospect of a recession as the coronavirus wreaks havoc across the world. Panic reigned in currency markets Monday as orders from traders and algorithmic machines snowballed.


That saw the Australian dollar plunge almost 5% in less than 20 minutes, the biggest one-day decline since 2008. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index slumped

Households and businesses are woefully unready to keep Australia's economy afloat | Greg Jericho

The economy depends on exports and government spending – we are not prepared for the impact of the coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

There is a chance today's GDP number could signal Australia is already in recession

Some of Australia's top economists explain what to expect from today's GDP announcement and why Australia might already be in recession.

www.abc.net.au

Good article from an economist explaining why and what we can do about it here:

The Next Recession We Have to Have

The only uncertainty surrounding an impending recession in Australia is when it will happen. How we prepare now will map | Faculty of Business & Economics

fbe.unimelb.edu.au

is and will are two very different things and I've stated in previous posts we should have a confident PM that puts the nation ahead of his job and say "take your medicine". Keating was haunted by similar positions, thus just one reason Rudd couldn't take such a bold stance.

Lower fuel cost inputs, a softer FX, tax cuts etc will all help. Even in your own link, it is suggesting we still have growth albeit by a slim margin. So why panic? A recession even if it does happen is only short lived unless you are a now now kind of guy. Go back and take a look at how short lived recessions are........by the time a recession is called, it is usually over within 1 to 60 days.



oh and the 12 yo ABC journalist calling we are already in recession! probably too young to know the definition

 

[medusala]

A sprinkle of stimulus sure but not wholesale. This is a 3-6 month issue, impacting an otherwise robust economy.

Amazing isnt it that there are still people out there who swallow the old Keynesian fairytale.

Go back and take a look at how short lived recessions are........by the time a recession is called, it is usually over within 1 to 60 days

Just another reason why the magic pudding theory fails. Wayne the abacus Swan tried to tell everyone that his spending saved us recession (this despite the spending coming after two quarters of neg per capita gdp growth. Still why not lie when you know the ABC will continue repeating the lie?

 

[NSWCROW]

Malcolm Roberts Is Getting Shredded For Blaming The Toilet Paper Shortage On... Socialism?

Old Malcolm reckons that it's the fault of the left-wing that Australia is out of toilet paper.

junkee.com

People voted for this ****en noodle

 

[Hawk Dork]

View attachment 836366

Is that a graph for house prices ?

 

[Power Raid]

Is that a graph for house prices ?

it's amazing how wealthy Australians are with fabulous savings in superannuation, share portfolios, cash reserves, property etc. Can you think of many places on the planet that have it so good?

Being a low risk jurisdiction from an international perspective, our share prices often trade on 14-16 times multiples. Highlighting our legal system plays a role in wealth creation and not just our high incomes.

Our superannuation system helps morons who would otherwise not save for retirement themselves. This has created a financial system driving great business and entrepreneurship. Again highlighting that a financial system plays a role in wealth creation and not just our high incomes.

Combining our legal system, financial system and our entrepreneurial spirit has delivered Australia a robust economy capable of with standing many recessions, a GFC, Y2K, a bush fire and the flu. Hopefully the government responds sensibly and understands events like a bush fire or the virus is a shock, whilst a recession or GFC is a dip.

 

[Hawk Dork]

it's amazing how wealthy Australians are with fabulous savings in superannuation, share portfolios, cash reserves, property etc. Can you think of many places on the planet that have it so good?

Being a low risk jurisdiction from an international perspective, our share prices often trade on 14-16 times multiples. Highlighting our legal system plays a role in wealth creation and not just our high incomes.

Our superannuation system helps morons who would otherwise not save for retirement themselves. This has created a financial system driving great business and entrepreneurship. Again highlighting that a financial system plays a role in wealth creation and not just our high incomes.

Combining our legal system, financial system and our entrepreneurial spirit has delivered Australia a robust economy capable of with standing many recessions, a GFC, Y2K, a bush fire and the flu. Hopefully the government responds sensibly and understands events like a bush fire or the virus is a shock, whilst a recession or GFC is a dip.

Also amazing how much our houses are worth compared to other countries

 

[HardcoreGeelongFan]

Wow! Shame he didn't get hit by a car before walking into a crowd of 12000. Some millenial who got off a plane 2 days ago. In more important news he has ****ed us? He's made us the new italy in 7 or so days.. I'm glad we've identified who he is

Person diagnosed with coronavirus after attending Victorian music festival

A person who attended the three-day Golden Plains music festival, west of Melbourne, on the weekend has tested positive for COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

 

[kickazz]

I have no issues with how they have managed the health issue. I am slightly worried that he is so obsessed with trying to preserve the surplus that he will undercook fiscal stimulus.

The RBA has been begging Treasury to loosen the purse strings for months. If the government waits til the May budget to announce its package (as its indicated it might) we will be well into recession before the spending takes effect.

We really shouldn’t be going into a negative growth period with interest rates already at 0.5%. It leaves us very little space to move. The current government needs to wear some blame for putting too much reliance on monetary policy to prop up the economy.

Now was not the time for a surplus, even before the fires and virus.

The problem is, "surplus=always good" has become some sort of paralyzing, immutable mantra for the LNP.

Maybe current events actually give them the "excuse" to do the more prudent thing anyway.

 

[Seeds]

Why are we giving cash hand outs to welfare recipients and pensioners? They are the only people whose incomes were already protected from Covid-19. In fact cheaper oil makes their real incomes go up. The people who are losing incomes are the business owners and casual workers.

 

[kickazz]

Why are we giving cash hand outs to welfare recipients and pensioners? They are the only people whose incomes were already protected from Covid-19. In fact cheaper oil makes their real incomes go up. The people who are losing incomes are the business owners and casual workers.

It's odd. Is support it from a "wealth trickles up" pointy of view for fixing the economy. But you are right, I thought this was supposed to be about mitigating wage loss.

 

[Seeds]

It's odd. Is support it from a "wealth trickles up" pointy of view for fixing the economy. But you are right, I thought this was supposed to be about mitigating wage loss.

Sounds like the libs just want to give money to their voters. I.e. pensioners. It should of gone to casual workers and incentive based workers and owners in travel, tourism and recreational sectors.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Why are we giving cash hand outs to welfare recipients and pensioners? They are the only people whose incomes were already protected from Covid-19. In fact cheaper oil makes their real incomes go up. The people who are losing incomes are the business owners and casual workers.

Poor people spend most of their coin on food and rent, the money has a bigger multiplier effect as it recirculates more in the economy.

It's more about supporting local business

 

[Seeds]

Poor people spend most of their coin on food and rent, the money has a bigger multiplier effect as it recirculates more in the economy.

It's more about supporting local business

So not about helping those affected by the virus. Workers in travel, tourism and recreation sectors will have much lower hours of work. Giving money to pensioners helps in no way boost demand and hours of work in those sectors.

people in any form of employment may lose income through having to quarantine themselves for 14 days. Guess which people dont lose money from quarantining? Welfare recipients and pensioners.


this is just ridiculous. They are literally the last people who should of received cash payments.