Draft Expert Davo-27's 2022 u18 Draft Thread

[Chris25]

Davo27 comment looked very well researched to me. Some impressive note taking over a few years!

And he was only providing context to a question he was asked. Pretty average comments Chris.

I have no issue with Davo rating Lemmey's on field performances. But questioning a 17 year olds character? No research and stat counting can account for that.

 

[ChasingFlags25]

I have no issue with Davo rating Lemmey's on field performances. But questioning a 17 year olds character? No research and stat counting can account for that.

Understand your position, Davo was asked why Lemmey has drop 30 spots. My take away was Character was a part of the reason.

Scouts measure a potential draftees character, right?

 

[Davo-27]

Ridiculous comments in my opinion. How many times have you spoken to Lemmey? Watched him train? Know him well?

Questioning a 17 year olds character because you've watched him play a few games is peak armchair expert. It's clear he's struggled at times this year, down on form and has struggled with continuity. So I don't care where anyone rates him based off performances. But saying he lacks bravery, determination and needs a mindset change? You must have inner sanctum access.

So you can judge a player positively on bravery, composure or determination, but you cant then comment that someome may lack in those areas and need improvement? Odd?

 

[Chris25]

Understand your position, Davo was asked why Lemmey has drop 30 spots. My take away was Character was a part of the reason.

Scouts measure a potential draftees character, right?

Scouts do. Should amatuer draft watchers do the same without anywhere near the same access?

My issue is people could read this and now associate Lemmey with character concerns, a claim which seems completely unfounded to me. You've already taken away that a draft watcher has questions over his character. It's such a long and damaging bow to draw that a player down on form isn't brave or committed.

 

[Davo-27]

Scouts do. Should amatuer draft watchers do the same without anywhere near the same access?

My issue is people could read this and now associate Lemmey with character concerns, a claim which seems completely unfounded to me. You've already taken away that a draft watcher has questions over his character. It's such a long and damaging bow to draw that a player down on form isn't brave or committed.

I said something similar about Lukosius in his draft year and got yelled at for that too, he still went high and has had a good career to date, even if he lacks a contested side to his game a little bit.

I said these are areas he should work on to get better.

 

[Crow till I die]

he was over-rated and adjustments have been made, if you want to know the history of this particular decision i can go through it for you, i saw him in the u17s and was a bit underwhelmed, he played u19's and looked ok there, then reports he had played ok in the sanfl seniors, so because he was 199cm and an underager last year in the sanfl for 2 games the media went into hype mode and i followed suite, then this year he went through some health isuues, but has been very underwhelming in his draft year which is where you expect improvement and there was not much improvement and if anything he went backwards(excuses aside) as you can see, 3 games in the champs for 1 goal, but more importantly dropping easy marks, hardly getting into the play affecting maybe half a dozen contests a game ect, on top of playing poorly for the Academy and not showing enough in the dozen or so games i have seen him play, there has been zero improvement and he seems to not be overly competitive, brave or determined which are qualities you can generally spot when you see them play more than 5 games, because of these factors i have dropped him to the 2nd round where i think he belongs(only because he has some key traits like his height, strength and a small bit of potential although he needs to fix his mindset to be better imo).

2021
u18's - 7 games 17.11 goals 3 CM
reserves - 1 game 0.1 goals 3 CM
seniors - 2 games 2.1 goals 1 CM

(stats that i can find from my notes from 2021)
u19's - 3 games for 3 goals (1 of those goals was against the Allies who were made up mostly of u17's players because TAS/NSW/QLD COVID situations)
u17's - 1 game 0 goals (looked very average, at this point i didnt have him in my top 30)

2022
u18's - 2 games 8.1 goals 0 CM
reserves - 2 games 2.5 goals 1 CM
seniors - 2 games 2.1 goals 1 CM

u18 champs - 3 games 1 goal (only goal against the Allies, usually the weakest team)
AFL Academy - 1 game 0 goals (didnt look like getting near it let alone kick a goal)

not only kicking low goal tallies for the last 2 years, but also having low impact and having low influence on games in general.

Thanks for that very detailed summary

Its nice to know the crows have got him tanking hard so he falls to us for a lower pick...just kidding

 

[Davo-27]

Thanks for that very detailed summary

Its nice to know the crows have got him tanking hard so he falls to us for a lower pick...just kidding

hey, you know i love a conspiracy theory

 

[WilloTree]

i thought i would do an early top 30 for 2023

1. Harley Reid - Bend
2. Jed Walter - GCS A
3. Daniel Curtin - Clare
4. Nate Caddy - North
5. Nick Watson - East
6. Jack Delean - Sth Adel
7. Koltyn Tholstrup - Subi
8. Zane Duursma - Gipps
9. Nathan Philactides - Oak
10. Ashton Moir - Glenlg
11. Archer Reid - Gipps
12. Koen Sanchez - Est Frem
13. Sam Frangalas - Dand
14. Riley Hardeman - Swan Dist
15. Jake Rogers - GCS A
16. Archie Roberts - Sand
17. Luamon Lual - GWV
18. Oliver Badr - Oak
19. George Stevens - GWV
20. Cooper Simpson - Dand
21. Mitch Edwards - Peel
22. Alex Holt - Sturt
23. Xavier Walsh - Est Perth
24. Colby McKercher - Tas
25. Caleb Windsor - East
26. Will McCabe - Cent Dist
27. Will Patton - Wst Adel
28. Rhyley Sanders - Sand/Tas
29. Cam Nyko - East
30. Ethan Read - GCS A

PS. have not seen enough of Riak Andrew and Darcy Wilson to make a call yet, but they are considered good players in this draft as well.

Good list. Well done.

I've been particularly impressed with Harley Reid, Nick Watson and Mitch Edwards.

 

[briztoon]

Understand your position, Davo was asked why Lemmey has drop 30 spots. My take away was Character was a part of the reason.

Scouts measure a potential draftees character, right?

Yes they do. Some AFL scouting departments employ someone specifically for this.

But they don’t make such judgements on watching a kid play.

They make such assessments by;

*sitting in on the early season 5 minute “speed dating” interviews conducted at the AFL academy camp.

*from interviewing kids NAB league/SANFL/WAFL coaches, school teachers and school coach.

*from watching and listening to kids media interviews. Particularly if they appear on “In to the Fire” or “Road to the Draft”.

*by visiting the kids homes, meeting their families and extensively interviewing the kids in an environment they are comfortable in.

*and finally at the Draft Combine, where they interview kids again, and have access to their medical assessment.


Scouts don’t make character assessments on kids by how they play.

 

[briztoon]

I said something similar about Lukosius in his draft year and got yelled at for that too, he still went high and has had a good career to date, even if he lacks a contested side to his game a little bit.

I said these are areas he should work on to get better.

Does every outside player have character “issues”?

Did Wanganeen-Milera have character “issues” last year.

Lukosius is a flanker/wing at KPP height

 

[Davo-27]

Does every outside player have character “issues”?

Did Wanganeen-Milera have character “issues” last year.

Lukosius is a flanker/wing at KPP height

no they dont all lack certain qualities, also i was early on W-M, but whatever.

he was being sold as a KPP in his draft year though, i know he is a winger/flanker now.

 

[Sobreye]

he was over-rated and adjustments have been made, if you want to know the history of this particular decision i can go through it for you, i saw him in the u17s and was a bit underwhelmed, he played u19's and looked ok there, then reports he had played ok in the sanfl seniors, so because he was 199cm and an underager last year in the sanfl for 2 games the media went into hype mode and i followed suite, then this year he went through some health isuues, but has been very underwhelming in his draft year which is where you expect improvement and there was not much improvement and if anything he went backwards(excuses aside) as you can see, 3 games in the champs for 1 goal, but more importantly dropping easy marks, hardly getting into the play affecting maybe half a dozen contests a game ect, on top of playing poorly for the Academy and not showing enough in the dozen or so games i have seen him play, there has been zero improvement and he seems to not be overly competitive, brave or determined which are qualities you can generally spot when you see them play more than 5 games, because of these factors i have dropped him to the 2nd round where i think he belongs(only because he has some key traits like his height, strength and a small bit of potential although he needs to fix his mindset to be better imo).

2021
u18's - 7 games 17.11 goals 3 CM
reserves - 1 game 0.1 goals 3 CM
seniors - 2 games 2.1 goals 1 CM

(stats that i can find from my notes from 2021)
u19's - 3 games for 3 goals (1 of those goals was against the Allies who were made up mostly of u17's players because TAS/NSW/QLD COVID situations)
u17's - 1 game 0 goals (looked very average, at this point i didnt have him in my top 30)

2022
u18's - 2 games 8.1 goals 0 CM
reserves - 2 games 2.5 goals 1 CM
seniors - 2 games 2.1 goals 1 CM

u18 champs - 3 games 1 goal (only goal against the Allies, usually the weakest team)
AFL Academy - 1 game 0 goals (didnt look like getting near it let alone kick a goal)

not only kicking low goal tallies for the last 2 years, but also having low impact and having low influence on games in general.

Sounds like he dropped off a cliff, do you know what the health issues were? could they account for it? say Glandular or long Covid?

 

[RanaNaved]

Lemmey looks very, very slow.

 

[blueiris]

Lemmey looks very, very slow.

Most key forwards are slow though still looks like a really good player

 

[Mutineer]

Lemmey looks very, very slow.

Then you never watched his SANFL League games, his speed on the lead for a big guy is exceptional when he's fit and healthy.

 

[RanaNaved]

Then you never watched his SANFL League games, his speed on the lead for a big guy is exceptional when he's fit and healthy.

So he's injured?

 

[Mutineer]

So he's injured?

Not currently but apparently he copped a really bad dose of Covid and has struggled since....recruiters will have all that info when it comes to assessing his draftability.

 

[Sobreye]

Not currently but apparently he copped a really bad dose of Covid and has struggled since....recruiters will have all that info when it comes to assessing his draftability.

First thing I thought was glandular or Long Covid

 

[davesnothere]

Lemmey did miss about 4 weeks out of 5 early in the year though being a close contact and then having covid itself and then coming straight back in to playing forward in possibility the 2nd worse sanfl league team of the last 20 years and not getting near the ball. Then dropped back to the reserves looked better and then very good back in the under age side.

He’s then come out and played in that slop last week with a very good in form defender in Hayes playing an outstanding game.

Think he’s just had a really poor run of luck but with decent number of under age games left with West still to go in the sanfl season he could end up looking the goods again by the end of the year.

 

[RanaNaved]

your wce at pick 2, what do you do?

Pick 2 is too early for Hewett and Busslinger imo, but we will be linked because they're from WA. No key forward looks worthy of pick 2.

If you listen to what Simpson consistently says is a big problem for us it gives you a decent idea as to what we'll look for.

After almost every loss he mentions our inability to win contests in the middle, and our inability to get it out it of our defensive half and inside 50.

Wardlaw and Tsatas stand out as the most obvious candidates imo.

 

[dkalphy]

Pick 2 is too early for Hewett and Busslinger imo, but we will be linked because they're from WA. No key forward looks worthy of pick 2.

If you listen to what Simpson consistently says is a big problem for us it gives you a decent idea as to what we'll look for.

After almost every loss he mentions our inability to win contests in the middle, and our inability to get it out it of our defensive half and inside 50.

Wardlaw and Tsatas stand out as the most obvious candidates imo.

tstatas is an outside mid

 

[RanaNaved]

tstatas is an outside mid

What's your point?

 

[eDPS]

tstatas is an outside mid

He can certainly play inside, has averaged 6 clearances a game despite playing 80% on the wing. When he does play inside he is a clearance machine.

 

[RanaNaved]

He can certainly play inside, has averaged 6 clearances a game despite playing 80% on the wing. When he does play inside he is a clearance machine.

Some people on the Eagles board (who wouldn't have seen him play) have heard him described as an 'outside' mid, and are apparently convinced he's Cale Morton.

 

[eDPS]

Some people on the Eagles board (who wouldn't have seen him play) have heard him described as an 'outside' mid, and are apparently convinced he's Cale Morton.

It’s hard not to see him as an outside mid when he has played a lot of time on the wing but some people just need to dig a little deeper to see what he can do. You don’t see many outside mids getting 42 disposals and 9 clearances in one game.