List Mgmt. Do we REALLY have a cap problem? Lets (attempt to) figure it out

[sr36]

Not suggesting we delist them.

I’m just questioning why we would blow our cap on players who the coaches consistently don’t rate within the top 10 players on our list.

Sure, the Copeland rewards players who are consistent - but so it should. And shouldn’t player remuneration also reward players who are consistent?

And yeah, sometimes stuff happens and a player gets injured ...

... but five years should be a sufficient period to assess a player’s value.

(Incidentally, I also reckon it’s nuts that Swans / Essendon are fighting over how many first round draft picks to pay for a bloke whose barely played 11 games in the last 2 season)

If somebody wants to point out that AFL is all about which team has the best highlights reel, then that would then make sense.

You sign contracts for what you think these guys are going to produce over the course of the contract - not just what they have produced in the past. The footy world think that Moore and Degoey are going to be dominant players over the rest of their careers, thus clubs, including ours, are willing to offer them a heap of money.

 

[MarkT2]

How many of the player contracts that were in place at the time of the review are still in place today?

I don’t know the answer to this question but I suspect that there have been enough new contracts written since then to entirely change the shape of our player payments.

Bottom line is that what was written on the whiteboard back then tells us nothing about today’s situation and even less about what might happen in 12 months time.

Every team has a cap limit and some teams have good players. We have a few good players but is there any evidence at all that we have a particular problem?

Anything?

If a salary cap problem is identified it generally isn't a 1 year issue. There have been a few high profile contract renewals. De Goey would have signed for more than he was on at that time. Cox is reportedly on good money now.

How much evidence is there? I'm not sure what's fact, accurate speculation of BS. Logic tells me the noise about our cap issues is well founded but clearly I am not the list manager.

Let's see what we let Aish go for. The lesser the trade price the more desperate we are to clear the salary. All things being equal we should get a good upgrade on pick 35. We are apparently still trying to push Scharenberg and Phillips out. I am all for trading all 3 to get a good pick in the draft but our bargaining power is weak if we need to clear cap space.

 

[MarkT2]

A cap issue was identified. Most seem happy to assume that the issue was we were over. I've always leaned to the view that we were under and struggling to meet our 95% minimum spend requirement. We'll never actually know.

"Fixing" a cap issue is easy if you aren't spending the minimum. You just sign someone with an up front first year. Given the then recent recruitment of Wells & Mayne, it's hard to imagine we were under 95% but we obviously don't know for certain.

 

[loki04]

"Fixing" a cap issue is easy if you aren't spending the minimum. You just sign someone with an up front first year. Given the then recent recruitment of Wells & Mayne, it's hard to imagine we were under 95% but we obviously don't know for certain.

There was no way it was under. Given all the noise since and the extra high offers coming into some of our youth and the fact we are currently looking at a salary dump for Aish and other mid tier types... Not hard to add up its been tight and has been for a few seasons.

Lynch deal was lower then Tigers and that was reportedly with players agreeing to a cut or restructure to fit him in. We also may have lost Langdon (to free up space) had lynch chose us last year.

 

[jackcass]

"Fixing" a cap issue is easy if you aren't spending the minimum. You just sign someone with an up front first year. Given the then recent recruitment of Wells & Mayne, it's hard to imagine we were under 95% but we obviously don't know for certain.

Or we signed Mayne and Wells to ensure we meet our 95% minimum over the duration of their contracts. As I say, you can make a case either way.

 

[left at home]

Well according to Ned we don’t have a problem, do you believe him or the media trolls,

 

[Thatsmyname]

Well according to Ned we don’t have a problem, do you believe him or the media trolls,

I believe my eyes, getting rid of Aish and picking up Cameron on next to nix it's pretty obvious we were looking for some extra cash

 

[left at home]

I believe my eyes, getting rid of Aish and picking up Cameron on next to nix it's pretty obvious we were looking for some extra cash

He was contracted, so already budget for. So he did not have to leave at all

 

[Thatsmyname]

He was contracted, so already budget for. So he did not have to leave at all

We had the picks for a Keath or a Bruce, it's patently obvious we didn't have the salary for them, and the reason Aish was encouraged to search out other options is because they really don't believe they have the money for him to extend next year

 

[Help My Club]

Yes!

 

[left at home]

We had the picks for a Keath or a Bruce, it's patently obvious we didn't have the salary for them, and the reason Aish was encouraged to search out other options is because they really don't believe they have the money for him to extend next year

The problem there is, the difference between what a supporter thinks and wants the club to do, and what the club actually think and does.
The club may not even looked at those players at all.
With Aish it could a polite way of saying your place is covered by another player, as in Murphy or Quaynor after next season

 

[Thatsmyname]

The problem there is, the difference between what a supporter thinks and wants the club to do, and what the club actually think and does.
The club may not even looked at those players at all.
With Aish it could a polite way of saying your place is covered by another player, as in Murphy or Quaynor after next season

The difference is I used my eyes, there's no denying a scarcity of cash, it's patently obvious

 

[Robroy22]

The difference is I used my eyes, there's no denying a scarcity of cash, it's patently obvious

You're sounding Soooooo much like Barrett and Ralphy right now!

 

[TW Sherrin]

The cap myth is a brilliant scheme by the club to keep all the big boys on decent contracts. Can you imagine if everyone thought we had plenty of room under the cap? It'd be chaos.

Well played Ned.

 

[JezzasOnTheAsphalt]

Well according to Ned we don’t have a problem, do you believe him or the media trolls,

Well Ned is unlikely to ever admit a problem if there is one, and the media is going to look to make it a problem even if there is none. All most of us can do right now is basically guesswork and making our own judgments on the cap.

 

[barrackers]

With the money saved (200-300k ???) by trading Aish now what do we gain? Three options come to mind:

• Pay closer to the 95% mark in 2020 and bank it for 2021
• Re-shuffle an existing contact to bring payment forward
• Re-sign someone like Wills on a front ended contract

 

[Robroy22]

Well Ned is unlikely to ever admit a problem if there is one, and the media is going to look to make it a problem even if there is none. All most of us can do right now is basically guesswork and making our own judgments on the cap.

And therein lies the magnificent "detail" that the media plans to exploit. The fact that they don't know any club's financial details is irrelevant, they will plan to exploit our perceived situation (a situation the media have decided exists) and they'll play it for all its worth for as long as CFC supporters worry about it.

Throw off the shackles fellow PIES, in the famous words of sergeant Schultz...they "Know Nothing....NOTHING"

 

[left at home]

The difference is I used my eyes, there's no denying a scarcity of cash, it's patently obvious

Nah, Aish will save a bit, but not as much as people think. W
We did not have the picks to do much, no fire sale this year.

 

[left at home]

Well Ned is unlikely to ever admit a problem if there is one, and the media is going to look to make it a problem even if there is none. All most of us can do right now is basically guesswork and making our own judgments on the cap.

If it was as big a problem as the media has made out, we be doing what gws did, fire sale.

 

[Kappa]

If it was as big a problem as the media has made out, we be doing what gws did, fire sale.

Maybe we will in 2020.

 

[barrackers]

Maybe we will in 2020.

Given the players we have out of contract at the end of 2020 I can't see it happening. Aside from the star trio, Cox, Scharenberg and Mihocek are the only uncontracted experienced players who are likely to attract interest elsewhere.

Grundy, De Goey, Moore - with Aish's departure 12 months early I sense the club is confident of re-signing these players

Greenwood, Reid - can't be on much in what shapes as their final year, likewise Varcoe if/when his re-signing is confirmed

Roughead - much like Greenwood and Reid he can't be on much

Pendlebury, Mayne - reduced contracts

Cox, Scharenberg, Mihocek - may attract interest, may be offered slight unders

Murphy, T. Brown, C. Brown, Keane, Kelly, Bosenvulagi - young players who should be re-signed, but I can't see any commanding big dollars at this stage of their footy

Daicos, Tohill, Appleby - playing for their career in 2020


Looking a year further ahead to the end of 2021 Sidebottom and Howe will be offered reduced contracts, with Langdon, Phillips, Stephenson and Sier likely to attract interest from other clubs. Thomas, Elliott and Wilson are the others out of contract at the end of 2021.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

We had the picks for a Keath or a Bruce, it's patently obvious we didn't have the salary for them, and the reason Aish was encouraged to search out other options is because they really don't believe they have the money for him to extend next year

Is there also not an obvious alternative - we didn't want to pay Keath and Bruce what the Bulldogs offered them?
It doesn't have to mean that we are under cap pressure - just that our list management team determine what they think a player is worth and hold tight to that - it's generally what you have to do to build a succesful list. It would explain why we, reportedly, didn't budge our offer for Elliott after Brisbane's interest and just left the ball in his court, why we decided against extending Aish at his current contract, or why we are negotiating with Grundy, instead of giving him a 7yr 1.2m contract that he reportedly requested.

The reality is though, we don't have contract transparency in the AFL, so we have no idea. Its really hard to judge list management decisions without knowing actual contract or salary cap positions.

 

[Thatsmyname]

Is there also not an obvious alternative - we didn't want to pay Keath and Bruce what the Bulldogs offered them?
It doesn't have to mean that we are under cap pressure - just that our list management team determine what they think a player is worth and hold tight to that - it's generally what you have to do to build a succesful list. It would explain why we, reportedly, didn't budge our offer for Elliott after Brisbane's interest and just left the ball in his court, why we decided against extending Aish at his current contract, or why we are negotiating with Grundy, instead of giving him a 7yr 1.2m contract that he reportedly requested.

The reality is though, we don't have contract transparency in the AFL, so we have no idea. Its really hard to judge list management decisions without knowing actual contract or salary cap positions.

When player managers (who are trying to get the best deal possible for their client) are quoted as saying they are aware of our salary cap pressures I think you can take it to the bank those pressures are real

 

[THATSGOLD]

Beams is on $700k. Absolute joke. He should’ve been traded instead of Aish to free up the salary cap. Beams won’t play much more footy for us.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

We had the picks for a Keath or a Bruce, it's patently obvious we didn't have the salary for them, and the reason Aish was encouraged to search out other options is because they really don't believe they have the money for him to extend next year

Why would we want either of Keath or Bruce?