Unofficial Preview Dockers VS Swans - Preliminary Final

[Seppo]

We will run the team effort preview thread again for our home prelim final.

I'll post up the main sections below and you can nominate here for which heading you would like to tackle.

Post them here and I'll ninja them into the original sections.

Head to Head & Rivalry - Bicco

Form guide - HowieD

Freo Backs & Swans Forwards - go_the_dockers

Midfield (Freo & Swans) - go_the_dockers

Freo Forwards & Sydney Backs -

Team Selections, injuries, suspensions - Seppo

Stats that everyone loves - Beeawwb_SP

Conclusion and predictions -

 

[Seppo]

Head to Head & Rivalry - Bicco

Fremantle- 11 Sydney- 14 Draw-1

Last Game

Draw 70-70 at the SCG

Head to Head at Subiaco

Fremantle-5 Sydney-2 (wins in 1998 and 2010)


Head to Head in Finals

Fremantle-0 Sydney-1


Last 5 Games against each other

Fremantle-2 Sydney-2 Draw-1


Coaches Head to Head

Ross Lyon-1 John Longmire-3

This is an interesting Head to Head. The stats show that should Lyon be thrown a curve ball, he will need to react well to try and square the ledger. Longmire has won against Ross in big games before. However just as our team is better, so is he. As Ross has done all year, any adversity will be met with swift action. Sydney have problems, we've had them.

Is the enemy of my enemy my friend? With Sydney recently taking to thrashing the other Western Australian team, what’s not to like?

The last contest between these two teams ended in Fremantle’s first draw. Besides that fact, not an overly interesting match but one with a few interesting outcomes.

Crowley’s only ‘loss’ of the year to Hannebury

A Pavlich less Freo kicked an inaccurate 9.16 to 11.4

Michael Johnson can’t kick 50m under pressure and only under extreme cases should be used up forward. He is a backman and bloody good at it.

Sydney’s recent rivalry with WC has lead to fixturing involving only one contest per year between these two teams, making a rivalry a little hard to form. Fremantle is playing consecutive finals for the first time and Sydney has been a regular at this time of year and have had bigger fish to fry.

It is obvious that the Fremantle football club has been admiring from afar the work of the Swans. The club has recently stated a desire to play consistent finals footy, clearly in the mould of our opponents on Saturday.

Ross Lyon did his apprentice under Paul Roos at a very successful time for the club and Fremantle last year made an off field coup by recruiting the services of favourite Swans son, Brett Kirk. This will definitely be in Fremantle’s favour, as the preparation of the team as a whole will be known to the Dockers. Our midfielders are as hard as nails in Kirks mould

It will be interesting to see if Freo recruit from the club famous for turning careers around. Ross Lyon earlier in the year declared something of an interest in Jessie White.

Beating the Swans on Saturday won’t be so much about building a rivalry, but earning a badge of honour for beating such a good team at such a crucial time of year. A few more of these and we will have a rivalry, similar to what we now have Geelong, following a run of similar games.( We still won’t be able to play them at home though).

I have a lot of respect for the Swans but we should be able to beat them this weekend

 

[Seppo]

FORM GUIDE

Fremantle: WWWLW
Sydney: WLLLW

Two completely different runs into the finals, two completely different form guides! If it weren’t for the Round 23 match against St. Kilda, Fremantle’s form guide would read like a fairy tale run into the finals. Sydney’s form guide reads much differently, and looks ominously (or them) like a pair of W shaped anchors gathering around three giant loses.

FREMANTLE

After enduring one of the most disgusting displays of AFL bureaucracy and the ultimate slap in the face from Andrew “No rugby in September” Demetriou, Fremantle again face off against Andy, but his time in the form of the Sydney “Cost of Living Allowance” Swans. Fremantle have had the benefit of an easy run into the Preliminary Final. A week’s rest after one of their most brutal games of the season should have them feeling fresh while not having to worry about Week 2 Finals injuries and suspensions.

R20 Subi - defeated GWS by 113
Biggest winning margin. Pavlich returned from suspension. Sandilands back. And a dominant display from the young brigade (Neale, Clarke and Suban). Never in doubt.

R21 MCG - defeated Melbourne by 95
It’s lucky the new iPhone didn’t go for facial recognition software, because Aaron Sandilands would not have been able to access his favourite post-game iTunes playlist. Hayden Ballantyne decided to make the game a -little- more exciting by injuring his shoulder. Oh. And Fremantle won the game.

R22 Subi - defeated Port by 74
Fremantle destroyed Port Adelaide all around the ground, who narrowly lost to Geelong last weekend. Ballas and Pav kicked four goals each, and Lachie Neale cemented himself as an absolute up-and-comer with a 28 disposal effort, second only in disposals to Kane Cornes. Put on a clinic.

R23 Etihad - lost to Saints by 71
I think Ross Lyon must have loved this game. Blooding young players and only allowing his first-teamers up to 80% game time at most. Sandilands grew one and a half centimeters and Ryan Crowley got 28 touches. I had to pinch myself and check for sweat bands to make sure it really was him wearing number 15 out there. Fremantle allowed the Saints to play looser than the AFL’s argument that Essendon didn’t set out to deliberately cheat while implementing a supplement program.

QF2 Simmonds - defeated Geelong by 15
Ah. The game most recently on the mind. Two weeks ago, who would have thought that Fremantle could, at the same ground which Sydney lost by 44 points two weeks earlier, go out and record another historic win for the club. It was all against them, and they still pulled an impressive win out of their bag of tricks. The fact Stevie J. wanted to continue the niggle after the game shows just how hard Geelong were playing for the win, and how much pressure Fremantle absorbed. Luke McPharlin returns, Aaron Sandilands dominates and Matthew Pavlich is almost back to his best.

SYDNEY

Normally, this is the end of the season where teams start to hit their stride. Injuries are a curse and form is king. If that’s the case, then Sydney are the obvious exception. Heading into the finals last year their form guide was similar to the above, and yet they still won a premiership. In fact…

Round 20 2012 – Lost to Collingwood at ANZ Stadium by 8 points.

Round 22 2012 – Lost to Hawthorn at the SCG by 7 points.

Round 23 2012 – Lost to Geelong at Simmonds by 34 points.

Eerie, right? All that can be said is form is never a good guide to Sydney’s game.

R21 SCG - defeated Saints by 59
Saint Kilda are not a finals team, and this result was expected. The tackle count was low from both teams, and Sydney really just breezed this in. However, Tippett kicked 5 goals, White kicked 3 and Pyke kicked 2, showing how important Sydney’s tall forwards are to them. Josh Kennedy starred in the midfield.

R22 Simmonds – lost to Geelong by 44
A disgusting result for the Swans. The worst for the season up until this point, some would argue. They were dominated in the tackle count by 30, Disposal efficiency was down from the week before (which was hardly surprising given the number of tackles Geelong made – 95 for those counting), and they couldn’t buy a free kick down at Simmonds Stadium (that idiot Pannell still got an umpiring gig against Fremantle in QF2 off the back of this horrible performance – the clown with the number 28 on the back of his shirt).

R23 ANZ – lost to Hawthorn by 12
Sydney back to their tackling best, but just could not get over the line. They dominated for three quarters but were over-run by a rampaging Hawthorn in the last quarter. Jesse White kicked another 3 to add to his Round 21 performance, and Mumford kicked 2 while dominating the ruck. Josh Kennedy carved up the midfield once again.

QF1 MCG – lost to Hawthorn by 54
After losing to the Hawks on their home turf, Sydney took it to the Hawks up until half time. After that, they must have replaced the entire team with badgers because none of that Bloods culture we all know and loved surfaced in the second half. Pyke, Tippett, and White kicked more than half their goals.

SF1 ANZ – defeated Carlton by 24
Carlton came into this game as complete underdogs, but almost stole the game in the last quarter. Sydney may have turned off the accelerator, may have run out of legs due to injuries, or may have just been lazy, but the fact remains that they didn’t score a single point in the last quarter after holding Carlton scoreless in the 3rd quarter. Carlton only laid 39 tackles for the game, and are not a pressure team as it stands. So Sydney could be accused of flirting with form. If they did that against any other team in the top eight, they’d have been lucky to win. Tippett, ROK, and Mitchell all injured and in doubt.


CONCLUSION
Sydney cannot win away from Sydney (they can barely even win there), and Fremantle cannot lose at Subiaco. So I asked Roby for his advice and was told that, based on the above facts alone, Sydney will win. About as much sense as his Power Ranking system.

Even so, Sydney will not be pushovers but, based on form alone, Fremantle should be able to get over the Swans by a comfortable 5 goals*.

*Unqualified opinion. Do not part with money based on this prediction.

 

[Seppo]

Freo Backs & Swans Forwards - go_the_dockers

Freo Backs & Sydney Forwards
Assumptions - Kurt Tippett, Mitchell is out, McGlynn is back in and Rohan a chance.
This is how I think the teams will line up.

Sydney forward line
HF: Daniel Hannebery, Jesse White, Craig Bird
F: Jude Bolton, Mike Pyke, Ben McGlynn
Reinforcements: Lewis Jetta, Gary Rohan, Shane Mumford, Luke Parker

Fremantle back line
B: Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Paul Duffield
HB: Nick Suban, Michael Johnson, Cameron Sutcliffe
Loose Man: Luke McPharlin
Reinforcements: Tendai Mzungu, Danyle Pearce, Stephen Hill, David Mundy

Key Areas
Creating Space - The Swans love for their forwards to push up the field and then to get teams on the fast break or sling shot. White, Jetta, Rohan, Hannebery all have great speed and if they are allowed to get goal side of their opponents then it will be a long day for Fremantle. Fremantle must counter this by both working hard defensively and having 1 or 2 people on the defensive side of packs to prevent these fast breaks.
Sydney Lowering their Eyes - Tippett being out may be a blessing in disguise for the Swans. I am not saying it is not a big loss, but I think it will force the Swans to lower their eyes, and it will make them a lot less predictable going into their forward line.
Defensive Pressure – This is Fremantle’s trade mark and if we can keep them under pressure then it will force them to bomb the ball long to a short forward line.
Speed of Movement - If Sydney is allowed to get on the fast break, then it will be a long day for the Fremantle backline. It is very important that the Fremantle midfield get there match ups right especially on Jetta and Hannebury when he is in the midfield. If Sydney are forced to kick down the line expect McPharlin to have a field day, but if Sydney are able to move the ball on quickly expect Sydney to have a 3 man forward line with plenty of space for each player and McPharlin struggling to make it to the contest.

Matchups
Pyke vs Dawson - Pyke is the main marking target with Tippett out of the side, and he does have a great ability to take a mark. I expect him to start deep but if he is not getting many marks, then I expect him to push up the field.
Johnson vs White - White has scored a number of goals by running with the flight of the ball, and using the pace and strength to out muscle and out run his opponents. I think one of the reasons Luke Hodge was so good against White is because he stayed goal side of White all day.
I expect Johnson to have seen how Luke Hodge played on White and to make the same decisions on when to leave the man and when to stay on him. White is very good on the lead and it is important that we block his space to make hitting him on the lead as difficult as possible. (Johnson could be replaced with McPharlin, but I would only consider this if his calf is 110%)
Spurr vs McGlynn - Spurr has the strength, smarts and marking ability to be a perfect match up for McGlynn. McGlynn is very smart around the goals and he only needs to 10 possessions to hurt you. I expect Spurr to play well on him, but McGlynn could still sneak 2-3 goals.
Duffield vs Bolton - This could be Bolton's last game (let’s hope so ), so I expect Bolton to give this game everything like he has done all his career. Bolton is Sydney version of de Boer, he will get 6 tackles a game, 10 possies and maybe a goal or two. I expect him to try to lock down Duffield and to limit his influence.
Suban vs Bird - I expect Bird to push up in the midfield to provide extra numbers and to open up the forward line. If pushes up Suban must match his influence around the stoppages while still keeping an eye on him to make sure he doesn’t sneak forward. If Rohan is picked, then Suban could easily match up on him.
Sutcliffe vs Hannebery - A lot of people had Sutcliffe starting as sub, but after a brilliant game against Geelong I think he will keep his spot. Hannebery is extremely tough match up and Sutcliffe cannot allow him to get goal side of him around stoppages. If Sutcliffe is able to stop Hannebury's run and makes him kick over the mark then it will be a win for Fremantle. Hannebury will win the battle if he is able to break free from stoppages and kick some goals.
McPharlin – Loose Man – I do not want White drawing him up to the wing, so I have put Johnson on him. For this reason I am playing McPharlin as the loose man, and he has shown the ability to play this position very well.

How can the Fremantle back line help Fremantle win?
Fremantle must control the space in the Sydney backline by staying goal side of their opponents when they are outside of the 50m. White, Jetta, Rohan, Hannebery all have great speed and if you let them get goal side of you they will either run into open goals or run 30 and kick 50.
Once the ball hits the ground it is important that we move the ball quickly out. The quicker we can move the ball on, the more pressure we will put on their back line.

How can the Sydney forward line help Sydney win?
I do not see one forward kicking 4-5 goals, so everyone in the team will need to work hard and do there bit for the team. It is crucial that the forwards push up the ground to create space, and the Swans move the ball quickly into the forward line. The Swans slingshot was devastating against Hawthorn in the grand final and this is how I see them winning this game as well, although without Goodes and with a hobbling Jetta.
Pyke\Mumford\White must create a contest and at least bring the ball to ground, and then Sydney must hold the ball in the forward and create a stoppage. Sydney are brilliant at creating goals from stoppages, so the longer the balls stays in there forward line the better chance they will have.

 

[Seppo]

Midfield (Freo & Swans) - go_the_dockers

A Graders - Aaron Sandilands, Nathan Fyfe, Ryan Crowley,David Mundy, Michael Barlow, Stephen Hill vs Daniel Hannebery, Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh, Josh Kennedy, Ryan O'Keefe, Mike Pyke
Depth Nick Suban, Tendai Mzungu, Danyle Pearce. Zac Clarke, Cameron Sutcliffe, Tom Sheridan, Lachie Neale, Matthew De Boer vs Shane Mumford , Lewis Jetta (If fully fit would be an A Grader), Shane Biggs, Luke Parker, Harry Cunningham, Jude Bolton, Craig Bird

With out any doubt, this is where the battle will be won. Both midfielders have 6 top quality midfielders (Potential All Australian) and a number of other players who can run through the midfield. Mumford vs Sandilands and Pyke vs Clarke will be very close battles, although do I expect Sandilands to dominate the taps at times during the game it will not be as easy as it was against the cats. Pyke has been in great form around the ground, and will be a handful for who ever is on him.

Crowley - Who does Crowley tag?

Target 1 - Hannebury - I think due to his ability to get forward and mark in the forward line, he is not the best target for fremantle. I expect Mzungu to go to him or Jetta.

Target 2\3 - Jarrad McVeigh\Josh Kennedy - Both great clearance players, I think Kennedy is the better target as he plays through the midfield the majority of the time which is easier for Crowley to tag, while McVeigh can play on the half back flank which is a great target for de Boer.

Spread\Pace - Jetta and Hannebury are Sydney's main two run and carry players, while Fremantle have Hill and Pearce. Normanlly I would say this was a 50/50 battle but I am not sure Jetta currently has the fitness to run out the entire game.

Slingshot football - Both teams like to push people into the opposition back line and then rebound quickly. Neither team has tall forward line, so quick ball movment and hitting people running towards goals or 1 on 1 situtions are key. I would say which ever team moves the ball better and delivers the ball better into the forward line will win the game.

Gas in the tank - Do Sydney have the ability to do a four quarter effort. Sydney were really run off their feet in the last quarter, and I know they were two players down but surely this great effort by 20 players must have taken its toll. If Fremantle hold Sydney for 3 qaurters, can we out run them in the last quarter?


Injured Players - Ryan O'Keefe looked to have hurt his Ankle, and with the Swan flying over to Perth on Wednesday he will have little time for be 100%. I am unsure if Rohan and\or McGlynn will return but if they both do surely they will struggle to run out the entire game.
Only Johnson and McPharlin are under an injury cloud for Frematnle, I believe they were only being managed and will be 100% on Saturday.

 

[Seppo]

RESERVED FOR Freo Forwards & Sydney Backs -

 

[Seppo]

Team Selections injuries, suspensions - Seppo

Current Injury List Freo
Player - Injury - Duration
Garrick Ibbotson - Achilles - test
Michael Johnson - Calf - test
Clancee Pearce - Achilles - season
Haiden Schloithe - Ankle - season
Sam Menegola - Knee - season
Anthony Morabito - Knee - season
Viv Michie - Knee - season
Tanner Smith - Shoulder -season
Jonathon Griffin - Knee - season
Kepler Bradley - Knee -season
Current Injury List Sydney
Player - Injury - Duration
Ben McGlynn - Calf - Test
Kurt Tippett - Knee - 1 week
Alex Johnson - Knee - Season
Rhyce Shaw - Knee - Season
Tommy Walsh - Hamstring - Season
Harry Marsh - Hamstring - Season
Sam Reid - Quad - Season
Adam Goodes - Knee - Season
Tom Mitchell - Ankle - Season

The above highlighted Purple and Red players from each respective sides shows players that could be considered 'Best 22' and have contributed to their side in the 2013 season.

Teddy Richards accepted his reprimand from the Semi Final against Carlton but is available to play due to his early plea and good record.

Mayne accepted his reprimand for rough conduct in the QF against Geelong while 3 separate reports on Dawson were thrown out making him available for this Prelim Final.

Likey changes:
Sydney will be flying across to Perth on Wednesday and will probably sending a squad of 25 across to cover any sore bodies. Tippet and Mitchell have been ruled out from the side both picking up injuries in the game against Carlton. Ben McGlynn is most likely to come back in along with LRT and Jed Lamb's names thrown into the mix.

Fremantle will bring back a fit and newly crowned All Australian defender Michael Johnson at the expense of one of the youngsters. Suban looks like he has recovered from his rolled ankle from the Geelong game and Ibbotson has been ruled out to make his comeback.

 

[Seppo]

Stats that everyone loves - Beeawwb_SP

Stats that everyone loves:

0. The margin last time these two sides met.
1. Fremantle's Defensive Rank for 2013
2. Sydney's Defensive Rank for 2013
3. The number of charges Zac Dawson had thrown out to be able to play this game.
4. The combined number of 2013 All Australians between the two sides.
5. Number of weeks Fremantle players have been suspended in 2013.
6. Combined number of All Australian squad-mates who missed the final Team.
7. The number of times these sides have met at Subiaco / Pattersons.
8. Number of Dockers who have played in a Preliminary Final before.
9. The margin the last time these sides met at Subiaco.
10. Number of "Outs" from the last time these sides met*
11. Number of matches Kurt Tippett was suspended for in 2013.
12. Number of players on Freo's injury list. (As at Sept 10)
13. Number of Goals Sydney kicked against Carlton in the 2013 SF.
14. Number of Goals Fremantle kicked in the 2006 PF.

 

[Seppo]

RESERVED FOR Conclusion and predictions -

 

[go_the_dockers]

Seppo - Can i please have the "Freo Backs & Swans Forwards" section.

Thanks

 

[theGav56]

Good thread, would read again haha.

 

[ImperialPurple]

I'm having a bit of The Castle thing at the moment. So in appreciation of Dennis Denuto...

"I'm shittin' meself."

 

[Bicco]

I'll do head to head and rivalry

 

[Seppo]

I'll do the selections, injuries and suspensions.

Everyone who nominates, try and get it in here by Wednesday night.

 

[HowieD]

I'll do the selections, injuries and suspensions.

Everyone who nominates, try and get it in here by Wednesday night.

Can I have a try at the form guide? Never done one before, would be fun.

 

[mattis117]

Excellent thread, I will let others nominate for now, if there is still something available this afternoon I might put my hand up

 

[E Shed]

My unofficial preview is that form is irrelevant, the past is irrelevant, the lineups are irrelevant.
What matters is that we are going to come out harder than we have every played and stomp their red & white asses all over Subi and roll over them on the way to the G for the big dance for the first time ever.
This is not to disparage the, no doubt wonderful previews that will appear, its just how I feel about it.
The stars are aligning for the first time in history for Freo and this one is a certainty IMO.

 

[Lach72]

this one is a certainty IMO.

Just FFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

 

[Simmofreo]

My unofficial preview is that form is irrelevant, the past is irrelevant, the lineups are irrelevant.
What matters is that we are going to come out harder than we have every played and stomp their red & white asses all over Subi and roll over them on the way to the G for the big dance for the first time ever.
This is not to disparage the, no doubt wonderful previews that will appear, its just how I feel about it.
The stars are aligning for the first time in history for Freo and this one is a certainty IMO.

Man I hope you are right !! I'm nervous as
S*** !!!!!

 

[E Shed]

Just FFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Chill Lach. Its only one persons opinion. I've never felt like this before.
You can worry all you like mate.

 

[grimlock]

Our team is battered, we could be missing our bookends (and could replace either of them with a guy who has played 80 minutes of football since Round 4, Crowley will tag McVeigh so tightly he won't have a beard by the end of the night, Lyon and Kirk know how to unravel the inner secrets of the Bloods brotherhood, we have nothing left up our sleeves. Freo by 99.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Our team is battered, we could be missing our bookends (and could replace either of them with a guy who has played 80 minutes of football since Round 4, Crowley will tag McVeigh so tightly he won't have a beard by the end of the night, Lyon and Kirk know how to unravel the inner secrets of the Bloods brotherhood, we have nothing left up our sleeves. Freo by 99.

- lol

It will be interesting to see where McVeigh plays after his heroics against Carlton. I would expect him to be moved to the back flank if Crowley gets on top of him. It will be interesting to see if Crowley follows him or lets someone else take him in the back line.

 

[Seppo]

Our team is battered, we could be missing our bookends (and could replace either of them with a guy who has played 80 minutes of football since Round 4, Crowley will tag McVeigh so tightly he won't have a beard by the end of the night, Lyon and Kirk know how to unravel the inner secrets of the Bloods brotherhood, we have nothing left up our sleeves. Freo by 99.

 

[Alfonz]

I'm surprised the general consensus is that Sydney have no chance. We'll still have our work cut out for us. Jack, O'Keefe, Kennedy, Hannebery, McVeigh, Parker ... their hard nut onball brigade is still largely in tact, and they are going to make it a battle in the clinches. Decent rucks that won't be exposed like the Geelong rucks. Swans could still win the midfield battle, and if that happens, then they have a real chance.

Will be bitterly disappointed to lose. We should win. But I think it will be a massive struggle. Sydney didn't have to use much energy last week. Not sure they have 2 supreme efforts in them to go all the way, but they should be able to put up a fight in 1 more game.

 

[clogged]

Pavlich goes a long way to resolving the problems Freo had in the round 8 game. A tonne of inside 50s for minimal effective scores is partially solved by having a true key target. Silvagni tried his best, but for all his efforts the lack of run saw him subbed off. Hill also didn't play, which compounded the lack of run.

It's hard not to be confident knowing what has changed since round 8. Sydney were just about near their best at that point.