Draft Picks - What value are they ?

[GoSarge]

Ok I have just had a look at the 2001 draft and tried to analyse what your odds are of getting quality players in to your system with respect to the relative draft picks you have at your disposal.

If we go by the numbers below, it would seem that in the top 10 from the 2001 National Draft, you’ve got a 50% chance of getting a quality player, and 4 of those quality players came in the top 4 picks. In a strong draft you’d think those with picks 5  10 have really missed out on this occasion !. Furthermore, the numbers also show that you have a 30-40% chance of picking up a quality player between picks 11 and 40 which is not much of a drop off (percentage wise) from the top 10.

Now considering there will be a real frenzy for top 10 picks this year and the chances of getting our hands on one is pretty much zero, is it worth giving up less (probably a lot less) to get a pick between, say, 20 and 40 where the odds really don’t drop off that much ?

Are top 10 picks all they’re cracked up to be, or is it worth exploring opportunities to offload ‘middle of the road talent’ for more 2nd and 3rd rounders ? We’d all love 1st round picks, but you can’t just trade anyone to get one in return. My gut feel is to try get some of these 2nd and 3rd rounders, where clubs are a lot more likely to part with them, and load up in a strong draft. Hopefully Fanta can do the rest.

What does everyone else reckon ?

2001 Draft Pick Player Talent
Top 10 Quality 5
Good 4
Below Expectations 1

11 --20 Quality 4
Good 2
Below Expectations 4

21-30 Quality 3
Good 2
Below Expectations 5

31-40 Quality 3
Good 4
Below Expectations 3

41-50 Quality 1
Good 4
Below Expectations 5

 

[Crow-mo]

I think you missed one point - what would give for a 30 - 40% chance?

they still are pretty poor odds. though I appreciate and agree with your idea about better value being 20 - 40.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Ok I have just had a look at the 2001 draft and tried to analyse what your odds are of getting quality players in to your system with respect to the relative draft picks you have at your disposal.

If we go by the numbers below, it would seem that in the top 10 from the 2001 National Draft, you’ve got a 50% chance of getting a quality player, and 4 of those quality players came in the top 4 picks. In a strong draft you’d think those with picks 5  10 have really missed out on this occasion !. Furthermore, the numbers also show that you have a 30-40% chance of picking up a quality player between picks 11 and 40 which is not much of a drop off (percentage wise) from the top 10.

Now considering there will be a real frenzy for top 10 picks this year and the chances of getting our hands on one is pretty much zero, is it worth giving up less (probably a lot less) to get a pick between, say, 20 and 40 where the odds really don’t drop off that much ?

Are top 10 picks all they’re cracked up to be, or is it worth exploring opportunities to offload ‘middle of the road talent’ for more 2nd and 3rd rounders ? We’d all love 1st round picks, but you can’t just trade anyone to get one in return. My gut feel is to try get some of these 2nd and 3rd rounders, where clubs are a lot more likely to part with them, and load up in a strong draft. Hopefully Fanta can do the rest.

What does everyone else reckon ?

2001 Draft Pick Player Talent
Top 10 Quality 5
Good 4
Below Expectations 1

11 --20 Quality 4
Good 2
Below Expectations 4

21-30 Quality 3
Good 2
Below Expectations 5

31-40 Quality 3
Good 4
Below Expectations 3

41-50 Quality 1
Good 4
Below Expectations 5

Interesting question mate.

1-10:

1st Tier: Hodge, Ball, Judd, Bartel.
Jury still out: Hale.
Average Players ( Probably not worth top 10)olak, X Clarke, Sampi, Molan, Power.
WHO: Molan.

Chance of recruiting top tier - ( 4 out of 10 )40%

11-20:
1st tierel Santo, Kelly.
Jury still out: Reilly

Chance of recruiting top tier - ( 2 out of 10) 20%

21-40:
1st tier: Maguire, Mitchell.

Chance of recruiting top tier - ( 2 out of 20) 10%

So even in the super draft the chances of recruiting a top tier player between picks 20-40 obviously drops off quite dramatically. However, I have been told that in this draft the top 5 are exceptional players and then from 6 through to 30 they are all good players but its hard to spilt them. I can't really see Craigy trading anyone though, although this would be the year to do it. Players such as Doughty, S Stevens, Massie, Bodes trade value would have to be a hell of alot better now than it was at this time last year.

 

[CrowMagnum]

If you want good value, you can't go past the rookie draft. Its only been going since 1997 and if a club is smart, and a bit lucky, it can pick up quality for next to nothing

For example:
Dean Cox
Chad Fletcher
Mark Nicoski
Quinten Lynch
Nathan Carroll
Aaron Davey
James McDonald
Mark Jamar
Daniel Ward
Mark Johnson,
Dean Riloi,
Damian Peverill
Tarkan Lockyer
Barnaby French
Martin Mattner
Ben Rutten
Nathan Bock
Danyle Pearce
Michael Doughty
Robert Copeland ......amongst others

 

[GoSarge]

If you want good value, you can't go past the rookie draft. Its only been going since 1997 and if a club is smart, and a bit lucky, it can pick up quality for next to nothing

For example:
Dean Cox
Chad Fletcher
Mark Nicoski
Quinten Lynch
Nathan Carroll
Aaron Davey
James McDonald
Mark Jamar
Daniel Ward
Mark Johnson,
Dean Riloi,
Damian Peverill
Tarkan Lockyer
Barnaby French
Martin Mattner
Ben Rutten
Nathan Bock
Danyle Pearce
Michael Doughty
Robert Copeland ......amongst others

Hell, lets forego our ND and PSD selections and load up in the rookie draft.

There's an idea !

 

[Stiffy_18]

If you want good value, you can't go past the rookie draft. Its only been going since 1997 and if a club is smart, and a bit lucky, it can pick up quality for next to nothing

For example:
Dean Cox
Chad Fletcher
Mark Nicoski
Quinten Lynch
Nathan Carroll
Aaron Davey
James McDonald
Mark Jamar
Daniel Ward
Mark Johnson,
Dean Riloi,
Damian Peverill
Tarkan Lockyer
Barnaby French
Martin Mattner
Ben Rutten
Nathan Bock
Danyle Pearce
Michael Doughty
Robert Copeland ......amongst others

Mal Michael
Dean Brogan

The list goes on. If the draft is as good and deep as some would have us believe then I think there is more chance a club picks up a gem or 2 via rookie list.

 

[Mego Red]

If you want good value, you can't go past the rookie draft. Its only been going since 1997 and if a club is smart, and a bit lucky, it can pick up quality for next to nothing

- which I suppose speaks volumes of the difficulty in knowing when a player is 17 the answer to significant questions that will shape his success as a footballer - what kind of character he has, how he will perform in an adult league, whether his development has plateaued, etc

 

[rayven]

Hell, lets forego our ND and PSD selections and load up in the rookie draft.

Wasnt Goodwin and Edwards PSD?

Not aiming at your post just highlighting the mention of PSD

 

[GoSarge]

Wasnt Goodwin and Edwards PSD?

Not aiming at your post just highlighting the mention of PSD

Very true, but if they were such standouts, we would have picked them up in the national draft.

 

[Damp Squarie]

Over-rated.
I mean all this discussion about Bryce Gibbs for example... We will pick up a player that will contribute to us winning games of a similar ilk...no question.

Youve only gotta look at the draft numbers aligned to some of our current players...are they performing? you betcha

 

[drakeyv2]

Haven't we proved that player development is more important than draft picks?

 

[RogerRabbit69]

It seems this draft may well be quite extraordinary. Most who have seen Bryce Gibbs and James Sellar play would realise these kids have the potential to become absolutely elite AFL footballers. It's like back a few years ago when Hodge, Ball and Judd went in the first three. It was almost a given that they'd become top-flight footballers. There's a similar level of expectation with this year's crop, it seems. I remember James Fantasia saying that he rated Bryce Gibbs as the best young talent he'd seen. Mark Williams said something along similar lines. For once, I think the hype is justified.

 

[arrowman]

Haven't we proved that player development is more important than draft picks?

Absolutely, but I don't that had to be proved. It has always been true (IMHO) that draft picks are over-rated. Sure, pick 1 is better than pick 16, but that's only one player and the club that gets pick 1 has their next pick at 17. In the overall scheme of things it's what you do with EVERY pick, even pick 56 (Johncock) and what you do in a whole lot of other areas that counts.

Have a look at St Kilda.

The idea that clubs benefit greatly from high draft picks to the extent that it's some sort of "good thing" to finish bottom 4, and that it;s necessary to bottom out to win your next premiership, is a myth.

I think everyone in the clubs knows this, the only people that don't are (a) some journalists and (b) a lot of footy followers who start getting excited when their clubs looks like finishing bottom 4.

Draft picks are over-rated.

 

[The Crows Truth]

It seems this draft may well be quite extraordinary. Most who have seen Bryce Gibbs and James Sellar play would realise these kids have the potential to become absolutely elite AFL footballers. It's like back a few years ago when Hodge, Ball and Judd went in the first three. It was almost a given that they'd become top-flight footballers. There's a similar level of expectation with this year's crop, it seems. I remember James Fantasia saying that he rated Bryce Gibbs as the best young talent he'd seen. Mark Williams said something along similar lines. For once, I think the hype is justified.

exactly old son. all these people saying it wont hurt the crows not getting Gibbs are massively mistaken imgo. OF COURSE it will hurt. Take out our most classy players from 97/98 - Jars/Macca/Rehn - would that have hurt come those big days in Sep? Freddy's certified blind dog could answer than one

 

[The Crows Truth]

Absolutely, but I don't that had to be proved. It has always been true (IMHO) that draft picks are over-rated. Sure, pick 1 is better than pick 16, but that's only one player and the club that gets pick 1 has their next pick at 17. In the overall scheme of things it's what you do with EVERY pick, even pick 56 (Johncock) and what you do in a whole lot of other areas that counts.

Have a look at St Kilda.

what you mean a rabble of a team from a few yrs back that based on repeated high picks becomes pre-season premiership favourites?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Haven't we proved that player development is more important than draft picks?

Twice as important...the afc is seeing the benefit of that area of improvement now!

 

[KUNG FU]

Haven't we proved that player development is more important than draft picks?

However, in this year's draft there is no doubt the top 5 picks will be absolute champions for their whole career, in which case the development is all done for you.

It'd be great if the Crows could bait some of our younger players for some action in the first or second rounds. I think we have definitely increased the currency on a lot of players without a bundle of natural talent (Mattner, Stevens, Doughty (not suggesting that we should/will trade these guys, just examples of improved players)). But I'm not holding my breath.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

However, in this year's draft there is no doubt the top 5 picks will be absolute champions for their whole career, in which case the development is all done for you.

It'd be great if the Crows could bait some of our younger players for some action in the first or second rounds. I think we have definitely increased the currency on a lot of players without a bundle of natural talent (Mattner, Stevens, Doughty (not suggesting that we should/will trade these guys, just examples of improved players)). But I'm not holding my breath.

It's not Craigs method to trade UNLESS the player requests a trade ....now that may happen for players who may feel they're getting limited opportunities.

Whether they have currency or are viewed as pawns in a very well constructed Craig gameplan ...don't know.

What I do know was that very few of our players from the premiership teams that were delisted were in fact picked up.

 

[macca23]

It's not Craigs method to trade UNLESS the player requests a trade ....now that may happen for players who may feel they're getting limited opportunities.

Whether they have currency or are viewed as pawns in a very well constructed Craig gameplan ...don't know.

I've heard Craig say that he hates that part of the coaching gig, but it doesn't mean to say that they wouldn't do it.

I think it was Phil Harper who was talking about this on 5AA recently and he did say that during trade week there would be up to 15 names that we would float as possible trades - just to see what that would flush out.

He went on to say that for anything to happen that would require a realistic offer and a willingness by the player to be traded - which makes it a long shot for most trades to happen.

I guess all I'm saying by this is that while Craig hates the whole trading thing, it doesn't mean he wouldn't do it if he thought we'd be the winners by it.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I've heard Craig say that he hates that part of the coaching gig, but it doesn't mean to say that they wouldn't do it.

I think it was Phil Harper who was talking about this on 5AA recently and he did say that during trade week there would be up to 15 names that we would float as possible trades - just to see what that would flush out.

He went on to say that for anything to happen that would require a realistic offer and a willingness by the player to be traded - which makes it a long shot for most trades to happen.

I guess all I'm saying by this is that while Craig hates the whole trading thing, it doesn't mean he wouldn't do it if he thought we'd be the winners by it.

Amd you would be right. We will put players up for trade but whether something comes out of it will depend on whether or not the offers are right and the player is willing to be traded.

Craig is a smart man, he will pull the trigger on the deal where he thinks we will be winners.

As on the topic of this thread, as darkey said, haven't we proven that draft picks in fact are over-rated. It is important to be able to identify talent and make a good selection at the draft table BUT thats only half the job done. Player development is probably more important.

Just have a look at players we have picked up under Craig. We are talking Meesen, Van Berlo, Gibson, Maric, Knights (3 have played AFL footy and one is on the verge and all that halfway through their second year in the AFL). Then this year we have picked up Douglas (who was flying before injury and was pushing for selection), Pfeiffer, Vince (already played this year), Obst and Porplyzia (already played this year)

That is a fantastic rate of return from players will less than 2 years of AFL experience. I am confident we can pick up some good players with late picks. Fantasia has always been able to do that but now with the development program in place, we are seeing results of that much quicker than we have ever seen before.

Just take Maric for example, his rate of improvement since being drafted has been truly remarkable especially for a big man.

 

[LukeHodge15]

i reckon if adelaide dont take the chance and offload some players for some quality picks this year. then they will miss a golden oppotunity to energize there list with some hugely talented youngsters.

pretty much like the stock market, heaps of ur players would get u maximum trade value at the moment. ur list is so deep, its scarey. time to sell at peak price

with your youngsters really showing something, maybe its worth the gamble and try to get into the top 10 picks this year with names like.

rielly
massie
mattner
skipworth
burton
mcgregor


would love to know what would be on offer if u floated guys of this calibre.

u would expect

knights
VB
meeson-maric
douglas
vince

to really starting to cement places in 2007.

question for u guys ?

what player would u think about putting up for a top 10 pick in the 2006 draft. ???

 

[LukeHodge15]

Amd you would be right. We will put players up for trade but whether something comes out of it will depend on whether or not the offers are right and the player is willing to be traded.

Craig is a smart man, he will pull the trigger on the deal where he thinks we will be winners.

As on the topic of this thread, as darkey said, haven't we proven that draft picks in fact are over-rated. It is important to be able to identify talent and make a good selection at the draft table BUT thats only half the job done. Player development is probably more important.

Just have a look at players we have picked up under Craig. We are talking Meesen, Van Berlo, Gibson, Maric, Knights (3 have played AFL footy and one is on the verge and all that halfway through their second year in the AFL). Then this year we have picked up Douglas (who was flying before injury and was pushing for selection), Pfeiffer, Vince (already played this year), Obst and Porplyzia (already played this year)

That is a fantastic rate of return from players will less than 2 years of AFL experience. I am confident we can pick up some good players with late picks. Fantasia has always been able to do that but now with the development program in place, we are seeing results of that much quicker than we have ever seen before.

Just take Maric for example, his rate of improvement since being drafted has been truly remarkable especially for a big man.

after i see the championships this weekend, i will know more. but from reports and footage i have seen, there is some MASSIVE talent that is available this year. and that is the difference between the last 3 years and this years draft.

its time for u to take advantage of ur depth in ur list and trade for some high picks.

 

[arrowman]

what you mean a rabble of a team from a few yrs back that based on repeated high picks becomes pre-season premiership favourites?

No. I'm referring to the team that was rated pre-season premierhsip favourites based on the stars on their list but whose 15th-40th players (their lower draft picks) are not as strong as some other clubs; the team that has question marks over its game plan, coaching and player rmanagement, the team that was demolished last week by a team whose highest draft pick, and only single-digit pick, in recent years was No 7.

I didn't say draft picks weren't of any value at all - St Kilda is demonstration of that. What I did say was that they are over-rated in relation to the other factors that make for success - and St Kilda is demonstration of that also.

 

[arrowman]

after i see the championships this weekend, i will know more. but from reports and footage i have seen, there is some MASSIVE talent that is available this year. and that is the difference between the last 3 years and this years draft.

its time for u to take advantage of ur depth in ur list and trade for some high picks.

Fair enough, but the trouble is that other clubs are aware of the quality of the draft also, and we'd probably have to give up two good young players, or one young gun, for one single digit draft pick - one or two known quanitities for one unknown quantity.

Saying we should trade for draft picks is not as simple as "make it so".

 

[RogerRabbit69]

Saying we should trade for draft picks is not as simple as "make it so".

Absolutely spot on. All clubs are well aware of the potential quality of this draft (especially the top 10). No one's going to give up a first-round pick without something very significant in return. For example, I'd expect the Crows would have to give up someone like Johncock (at least) to snare a club's first-round pick - and plenty of clubs probably still wouldn't consider it.