List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[FatPizza]

Drove to the eastern side of Toodyay to visit my in-laws yesterday so had some think time on the drive since my wife did her usual passenger princess routine and slept the whole way

Turned my mind to what it would take to move up from 13 to the pick 9 held by Carlton and who they would give us access to as potential selections

On face value picks 9,34,41 for picks 9,43 is pretty fair and would give Carlton an upgrade of 121 points. Dropping off 43 coming back would make it a no brainer as it’d give Carlton an extra 305 points

Seemed a no brainer. But it isn’t

In essence, Carlton’s draft position and requirements in matching a probable top 10 bid on Charlie Dean mean that there’s no incentive to trade out either pick 9 or 11 unless it is for a F1 pick

Neither Richmond or West Coast are likely to bid on Dean but they are likely to bid on the three northern academy kids at some point. That means that the earliest a bid will come for Dean is Essendon’s first pick which will be pick 8.

By that point Carlton’s picks will be 12 and 14. To match a bid at 8, Carlton would lose those two picks but get pick 17 back. If we had traded 13 for 9 (16 for 12 on draft night) Carlton would still lose their two R1 picks but only get pick 24 back. The extra points gained by having our later pick(s) back are of no value to them in matching a bid

Working through the scenarios, Carlton can basically get Dean and use another R1 pick in the mid teens without doing any trades. So there’s no incentive for them to do so, unless they trade out for a F1 pick from another club

So trading up for 9 isn’t likely going to be an option for us. The good news is that the first of Carlton’s picks will be lost to bid matching and the second one will be pushed behind ours - so instead of drafting the 13th best player in the open pool we will be looking at the 11th best

By that point the following are certainly/most likely off the board:

• Duursma
• Duff-Tytler
• Robey
• X Taylor
• Sharp
• Schubert

That would give us a choice between at least 3 of the following after Melbourne x2, Hawthorn and GWS take their picks:

• Cumming
• Grlj
• Marsh
• Greeves
• Dovaston
• Farrow
• Lindsay

If somehow Cumming gets past Melbourne and is there at Hawthorn’s pick I’d be offering them our St Kilda F2 to move up two spots

Otherwise the best outcome would be Farrow, Dovaston or perhaps Lindsay being one of the players getting through

You did all those points calculation in your head whilst on a drive?

 

[FatPizza]

Imagine if your wife was awake you could've explained this all to her

What do you think put her to sleep in the first place?

 

[Keys]

Imagine if your wife was awake you could've explained this all to her

I’ve tried explaining the draft system, free agency and trading to her before and get back a mix of confusion and disdain

You did all those points calculation in your head whilst on a drive?

The specific calculations now but worked through the logistics then did the points calculations later

It’s a 90 minute drive so plenty of think time

 

[Monocle]

Imagine if your wife was awake you could've explained this all to her

Thats how she fell asleep in the first place having to listen to all the what ifs.

Buggar FatPizza beat me to it by a whisker.

 

[Bestbird]

If somehow Cumming gets past Melbourne and is there at Hawthorn’s pick I’d be offering them our St Kilda F2 to move up two spots

Otherwise the best outcome would be Farrow, Dovaston or perhaps Lindsay being one of the players getting through

You would think the Hawks would be all over Cumming if he fell to that selection

 

[FatPizza]

Thats how she fell asleep in the first place having to listen to all the what ifs.

Buggar FatPizza beat me to it by a whisker.

17 minutes is a whisker to you?

 

[Monocle]

17 minutes is a whisker to you?

At my age 17 minutes is a whisker, got to account for the plentiful Nanna Naps.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

I have no issue with people questioning our recruiters decisions. We have come off the worst season ever and our recruiters and list management have a lot to answer for.

(I am aware there has been a bit of a clean out of these areas)

I'll question whether they should keep their job if in a few years time if it looks like they are getting too many of these decisions wrong. But i am not going to question their judgement at the time of the draft when all i have seen is a few highlights packages of the players concerned, and they have been watching these players for years and have seen the good and the bad from the draftees as opposed to just a highlights package.

 

[Elite Pete]

Cal who normally has pretty good intel, only has using 4 picks. Don’t get too attached to those NGA/FS. But not expecting many to be selected in the whole draft.

AFL.com.au's assessment seeing a minimum of 44 picks and a maximum of 57 picks being used.

 

[Keys]

You would think the Hawks would be all over Cumming if he fell to that selection

I’m hoping they’ll be wanting Greeves

Probably overly optimistic but wishful thinking is all we have atm

 

[bzparkes]

Thats how she fell asleep in the first place having to listen to all the what ifs.

Buggar FatPizza beat me to it by a whisker.

He beat me by about 10 seconds but I had the presence of mind to immediately delete my post

 

[cookiesncream]

I’m hoping they’ll be wanting Greeves

Probably overly optimistic but wishful thinking is all we have atm

Might not be too wishful thinking Greeves, they did try to get him access to him as an NGA. So, they have interest previously.

 

[Monocle]

He beat me by about 10 seconds but I had the presence of mind to immediately delete my post

Please go easy on a geriatric.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I’m hoping they’ll be wanting Greeves

Probably overly optimistic but wishful thinking is all we have atm

Hawks should pick Greeves based purely on personality profile.

I caught up Monocle at Shark Park (Metro game) and we both commented how Greeves came across immediately as FIGJAM. Monocle, from his U18 coaching days in Melbourne, laid out 3 things indicative actions that were associated with tossers out of Vic Metro. Greeves ticked them all by 3/4 time.

I think that he has Hawks written all over him.

 

[bzparkes]

Hawks should pick Greeves based purely on personality profile.

I caught up Monocle t Shark Park (Metro game) and we both commented who he came across as early as FIGJAM. Monocle, from his U18 coaching days in Melbourne, laid out 3 things indicative actions that were associated with tossers out of Vic Metro. Greeves ticked them all by 3/4 time.

I think that he has Hawks written all over him.

Well, they did try to list him as an academy player, after all.

 

[Choogler]

We could always trade down and pick up a bust like Bo Allen

You could be right about Allen... then again maybe not? We'll have a better idea at the end of 2026

 

[Choogler]

They wouldn't be much good in the ruck either though

wouldn't be any worse than BW

 

[uptheWC]

What’s the best possible outcome we’re gonna get from having CDT on the list? A serviceable ruck who can follow up in the midfield to an extent and provide a point of difference in link up play and around the ground.

What’s the best outcome we’re gonna get from having Sharp on the list? An AA level ball winning midfielder with great hands on the inside and elite tackling pressure.

Which is more likely to eventuate? I think the Sharp outcome. Which is more valuable at pick 2? I also think the Sharp outcome.

 

[Shueygod]

What’s the best possible outcome we’re gonna get from having CDT on the list? A serviceable ruck who can follow up in the midfield to an extent and provide a point of difference in link up play and around the ground.

What’s the best outcome we’re gonna get from having Sharp on the list? An AA level ball winning midfielder with great hands on the inside and elite tackling pressure.

Which is more likely to eventuate? I think the Sharp outcome. Which is more valuable at pick 2? I also think the Sharp outcome.

You think CDT is rated at pick 2 because that’s his ceiling?

Some of you blokes are clueless, I personally would rather trade down than grab him but acting as if the bloke doesn’t have a top 2 ceiling in the draft (while sharps is rated low for his draft position) is wild. If Sharps ceiling is as you described, CDT’s is best in the league, such is the difference.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

The specific calculations now but worked through the logistics then did the points calculations later

It’s a 90 minute drive so plenty of think time

Carlton can trade out picks 9 &/or 11, match bids then trade back into 2025 draft.

Any chance you go for another drive and come back with some hypothetical options for Carlton here?

 

[bzparkes]

Cal who normally has pretty good intel, only has using 4 picks. Don’t get too attached to those NGA/FS. But not expecting many to be selected in the whole draft.

AFL.com.au's assessment seeing a minimum of 44 picks and a maximum of 57 picks being used.

In the national draft. Means we're possibly only expecting a bid on say Williams, with the rest rookied. Depends how many senior spots we have available, I guess.

I thought we might have 5 currently? Might depends on Cripps though.

 

[Elite Pete]

In the national draft. Means we're possibly only expecting a bid on say Williams, with the rest rookied. Depends how many senior spots we have available, I guess.

I thought we might have 5 currently? Might depends on Cripps though.

Clarke has said previously 5 main list spots.

 

[No Hassle Hough]

If we want to generate some demand for pick 2, we should be meeting with Robey. Maybe Mini can meet with him and his family (give him a nickname like Robes).

Pretty sure Richmond and Essendon both have interest, may make them 'motivated' buyers.

 

[Obeanie1]

We could always trade down and pick up a bust like Bo Allen

Because if a 1st year player doesn't play at their peak in year 1 of their AFL career they never will?

 

[Mr Q]

Cal who normally has pretty good intel, only has using 4 picks. Don’t get too attached to those NGA/FS. But not expecting many to be selected in the whole draft.

AFL.com.au's assessment seeing a minimum of 44 picks and a maximum of 57 picks being used.

I'd be guessing he's expecting most FS/NGA picks we might want to take to be rookie listed and that we are likely to only take four picks.

That makes sense too - 1, 2, 13 and a FS/NGA who attracts a bid. Then the main list gets filled with rookie upgrades like Dewar.

What the low number of picks says is that it will be really hard to trade anything out of this year's draft into next year's.