List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[Elite Crow]

Diamonds in the rough guys and gals. Rory Sloane says hello.

Great player with poor disposal, we need to bring in good ball users

 

[Pdub]

Great player with poor disposal, we need to bring in good ball users

Poor disposal? Rory?

You either don't understand the meaning of the word poor, or haven't watched much of Rory since he became an AFL player.

 

[Elite Crow]

Poor disposal? Rory?

You either don't understand the meaning of the word poor, or haven't watched much of Rory since he became an AFL player.

There was an article about 3 weeks back where we ranked either 16th or 17th in disposal efficiency, kicking efficiency and clangers. Rory was pretty much our worst player with disposal efficiency in the low 60s. Just checked he's running at 64.4%, you happy with that?

This was just before the Hawks game where he turned the ball over a number of times.

 

[DD#23]

Rory is our smiling assassin.......of the ball

but we still love him

 

[huludicidal]

Poor disposal? Rory?

You either don't understand the meaning of the word poor, or haven't watched much of Rory since he became an AFL player.

Sloane is a great player mate, but he can't kick for shit. Keep up.

 

[Pdub]

There was an article about 3 weeks back where we ranked either 16th or 17th in disposal efficiency, kicking efficiency and clangers. Rory was pretty much our worst player with disposal efficiency in the low 60s. Just checked he's running at 64.4%, you happy with that?

This was just before the Hawks game where he turned the ball over a number of times.

Last year he ran at 70%, this year he has had more of an inside role. At worst he's bang on average among AFL players for the style he plays. Just because something is not elite does not make it poor. John butcher has poor disposal, Rory is OK to good. Not great, not elite, but certainly not poor.

 

[Pdub]

Sloane is a great player mate, but he can't kick for shit. Keep up.

Compare him to other players who have a similar ratio of contested to uncontested possessions as him and you will see he up to standard. Inside players have a lower disposal % than outside players because they have far less time to use the ball. He has a better effective disposal % than guys like Trent Cotchin, Josh Kennedy (syd) and Dane Swan.

Keep up.

 

[anonymous Derik]

He will slip because he's not that good....reckon he will go in mid to late 20s, something to consider for our second rd pick

What's your tip for our first pick??

 

[Jeffcrowe]

What's your tip for our first pick??

Tough one but to continue Phil Walsh legacy I think it will be a left footer given we need an elite kick , hopefully with a bit of toe ... Tucker is my tip with Bonner as the smoky or if we go tall and he's still there Harry McKay

 

[Danoz]

Compare him to other players who have a similar ratio of contested to uncontested possessions as him and you will see he up to standard. Inside players have a lower disposal % than outside players because they have far less time to use the ball. He has a better effective disposal % than guys like Trent Cotchin, Josh Kennedy (syd) and Dane Swan.

Keep up.

Ok.

Rory has a CP/UP ratio of 1.27. When looking at the top 200 contested possession players, only 8 other players have a CP/UP ratio between 1.17 and 1.37. Rory's DE (64.4) is above Josh P. Kennedy (63.7) and Brodie Grundy (58.1), but below Danger (65, yes, I know), Jelwood (67.9), Thommo (69.1, yes, again, I know), Wallis (65.7), CEY (67.1) and Billy Longer (80.6).

If I expand the ratio to 1.07-1.47, you now have 22 players in the range. Rory is ranked equal 17th with the likes of Blicavs, Goldstein, Gray, Roughead, Puopolo and Shane Edwards above him. The average DE of those 22 players is 67.9%. Rory is 3.5% below that.

Edit: FWIW, Cotchin has a CP/UP ratio of 0.99 and Swan 0.78, i.e. they get more uncontested possessions than contested. Considering the amount of Rory's CP, he's going a lot better than those two. Mids with a higher CP/UP ratio and a better DE include only Cripps, Fyfe, Thommo, Jelwood, CEY, Wallis, Cunnington and Dangerfield (of the top 200 contested possession players). There's also a lot of ruckmen in that list (but not Sauce).

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Ok.

Rory has a CP/UP ratio of 1.27. When looking at the top 200 contested possession players, only 8 other players have a CP/UP ratio between 1.17 and 1.37. Rory's DE (64.4) is above Josh P. Kennedy (63.7) and Brodie Grundy (58.1), but below Danger (65, yes, I know), Jelwood (67.9), Thommo (69.1, yes, again, I know), Wallis (65.7), CEY (67.1) and Billy Longer (80.6).

If I expand the ratio to 1.07-1.47, you now have 22 players in the range. Rory is ranked equal 17th with the likes of Blicavs, Goldstein, Gray, Roughead, Puopolo and Shane Edwards above him. The average DE of those 22 players is 67.9%. Rory is 3.5% below that.

He has had a poor year with his kicking compared to previous but usually I'd rate him an effective kick despite his technique looking awkward with 2 hand drop until last milisecond

 

[Danoz]

He has had a poor year with his kicking compared to previous but usually I'd rate him an effective kick despite his technique looking awkward with 2 hand drop until last milisecond

He does have a weird ball drop, doesn't he.

 

[Elite Crow]

Last year he ran at 70%, this year he has had more of an inside role. At worst he's bang on average among AFL players for the style he plays. Just because something is not elite does not make it poor. John butcher has poor disposal, Rory is OK to good. Not great, not elite, but certainly not poor.

Ok at 64%, is that good, ok or poor?

 

[Pugsley]

Last year he ran at 70%, this year he has had more of an inside role. At worst he's bang on average among AFL players for the style he plays. Just because something is not elite does not make it poor. John butcher has poor disposal, Rory is OK to good. Not great, not elite, but certainly not poor.

Butcher by name, butcher by nature.

 

[Pdub]

Ok.

Rory has a CP/UP ratio of 1.27. When looking at the top 200 contested possession players, only 8 other players have a CP/UP ratio between 1.17 and 1.37. Rory's DE (64.4) is above Josh P. Kennedy (63.7) and Brodie Grundy (58.1), but below Danger (65, yes, I know), Jelwood (67.9), Thommo (69.1, yes, again, I know), Wallis (65.7), CEY (67.1) and Billy Longer (80.6).

If I expand the ratio to 1.07-1.47, you now have 22 players in the range. Rory is ranked equal 17th with the likes of Blicavs, Goldstein, Gray, Roughead, Puopolo and Shane Edwards above him. The average DE of those 22 players is 67.9%. Rory is 3.5% below that.

Edit: FWIW, Cotchin has a CP/UP ratio of 0.99 and Swan 0.78, i.e. they get more uncontested possessions than contested. Considering the amount of Rory's CP, he's going a lot better than those two. Mids with a higher CP/UP ratio and a better DE include only Cripps, Fyfe, Thommo, Jelwood, CEY, Wallis, Cunnington and Dangerfield (of the top 200 contested possession players). There's also a lot of ruckmen in that list (but not Sauce).

The fact that there are ruckman in there shows there are a few that don't play the same role as Sloane, also Selwood gets 3-4 free kicks a game, each free kick is counted as a contested possession, but the player doesn't have to dispose of the ball under the same pressure that a normal contested possession would be. Ruck infringements free kicks counted as contested possessions is probably why there are ruckmen with a high.

Last year Rory had a DE% from 22 games above 70%, non of these stats point to him being "poor" or "can't kick for shit" when you are comparing him with the best players in the competition.

Rory also made tackles his priority this year, a player trying to make tackles stays even closer in the contest and does't spread until his team has won clear possession, meaning he has even less time to get rid of the ball.

 

[Pdub]

Ok at 64%, is that good, ok or poor?

For an inside midfielder, poor would be below 50%. You need to also remember an ineffective disposal is not a clanger. If Rory kicks the ball out of a pack in the centre of the ground and it results in Tex taking a contested mark in front of goals, then that is statistically an ineffective disposal to Rory.

 

[Mattrox]

For an inside midfielder, poor would be below 50%. You need to also remember an ineffective disposal is not a clanger. If Rory kicks the ball out of a pack in the centre of the ground and it results in Tex taking a contested mark in front of goals, then that is statistically an ineffective disposal to Rory.

Only if the kick is less that 40m or Tex is outnumbered at the contest. A 1 on 1 or 2 on 2 contest and it is efficient.

 

[huludicidal]

Compare him to other players who have a similar ratio of contested to uncontested possessions as him and you will see he up to standard. Inside players have a lower disposal % than outside players because they have far less time to use the ball. He has a better effective disposal % than guys like Trent Cotchin, Josh Kennedy (syd) and Dane Swan.

Keep up.

Yeah, disposal efficiency is a great way of measuring how good a kick someone is. Cos it only counts as 'effective' when it hits someone lace out right?

Wrong.

Sloane's delivery into the forward 50 is consistently terrible, even when under no pressure. The other things he does during a game make up for this, and as such he is still an invaluable part of our side.

 

[Bring back Bas]

Tough one but to continue Phil Walsh legacy I think it will be a left footer given we need an elite kick , hopefully with a bit of toe ... Tucker is my tip with Bonner as the smoky or if we go tall and he's still there Harry McKay

Tucker sounds like a perfect fit for our list - he could rotate with Smith as an attacking half back/outside mid.

If we go tall I think Weideman would be more likely than McKay as we are really after a big contested marking forward as opposed to another athletic tall who plays small.

I haven't seen Bonner play (I haven't seen any of the under 18's play) but he sounds a lot like Ricky Henderson in that he has all of the attributes that you want in an outside mid/flanker but doesn't dominate like he possibly could. Does that comparison sound about right to you? I hear him described as 191cm, very fast, close to the best kick in the draft and good of both sides of his body and I think "how is he not the number draft pick?"

 

[Bring back Bas]

From what I've been able to gather thus far, this is certainly my feeling, a really good top 10-15, butt after that the talent drops off pretty quick.



Don't be fooled by our recent efforts, 5 isn't refreshing the list, 5 is average turnover, 8+ changes is a genuine refresh.

At this stage id suspect we might see:
Retire: Reilly, Pods +/- Thommo
Delist: Martin, Siggins, +/- Shaw (pending recovery from injury)
Rookie Upgrades: Kelly, O'Brien

So probably only 4-6 players lost to retirement/delistment with like 2 rookie upgrades, however I think we might see a couple of players traded out.

I would be surprised to see O'Brien upgraded at the end of the year. Unless we think he will be getting regular games next year there is no harm in keeping him on the rookie list for next season and go into the draft with an extra pick as opposed to an extra pick in the rookie draft.

 

[Mismatched]

I would be surprised to see O'Brien upgraded at the end of the year. Unless we think he will be getting regular games next year there is no harm in keeping him on the rookie list for next season and go into the draft with an extra pick as opposed to an extra pick in the rookie draft.

Not so simple, although obviously better if we could work it that way. Issue is other clubs will come snooping around, rookies are on 1 year contracts, I suspect we may have to upgrade him to keep him. Similar happened with Luke Thompson a couple of years back.

 

[Bring back Bas]

Not so simple, although obviously better if we could work it that way. Issue is other clubs will come snooping around, rookies are on 1 year contracts, I suspect we may have to upgrade him to keep him. Similar happened with Luke Thompson a couple of years back.

I didn't think of that. Hopefully that doesn't happen because I think the club will wont at least 3 live picks and I am not sure where the 3rd is going to come from.

Rielly, Pods, Martin and Siggins will be the first to go. Shaw may get delisted if his body breaks down again but if it holds up I am confident he will stay - I cant see why the club would send him off for such radical surgery and give him this year if they don't intend to persist with him. I think the next one in the gun is Lyons but I'm not sure that we will sack him with a year to run on his contract. Who's after that...Grigg, Atkins, Otten?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Tucker sounds like a perfect fit for our list - he could rotate with Smith as an attacking half back/outside mid.

If we go tall I think Weideman would be more likely than McKay as we are really after a big contested marking forward as opposed to another athletic tall who plays small.

I haven't seen Bonner play (I haven't seen any of the under 18's play) but he sounds a lot like Ricky Henderson in that he has all of the attributes that you want in an outside mid/flanker but doesn't dominate like he possibly could. Does that comparison sound about right to you? I hear him described as 191cm, very fast, close to the best kick in the draft and good of both sides of his body and I think "how is he not the number draft pick?"

He has alot more class than hendo ....think rookie pick v 1st rounder and that sums it up

He actually plays small for 191cm, if you didn't know you'd think he's 184..... As he physically matures he could go to another level so I see himas massive upside as a guy who is a natural footballer who hasn't grown into his body yet

Haven't seen weidemann unfort .....I'm hoping we go for one of these outside types with good kicking skills so yeah agree tucker first presuming parish (inside / outside mid) is taken then Bonner as next best option

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Not so simple, although obviously better if we could work it that way. Issue is other clubs will come snooping around, rookies are on 1 year contracts, I suspect we may have to upgrade him to keep him. Similar happened with Luke Thompson a couple of years back.

Spot on, this is how we got Jenkins when he was a rookie at essendon

 

[Team DJ]

Sloane is a good decision maker which means his poor disposal isnt highlighted as much.
Sloane isnt in the same ball park as Smith Grigg Atkins with ball in hand. His ability to make good decisions helps lessen the issue