List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[Bacon8]

If Callum Mills was available to all clubs he could even go Pick 1, just doesn't seem fair given Sydney's sustained success that "struggling" clubs with little or zero success for years don't get a crack at him is all.

Again, how is that a big difference this year?

Heeney would have gone higher if available to the free market.
Tex Walker would have gone higher.

The argument for/against Academies is there, but Academy picks aren't new for 2015.

 

[Bicks]

Again, how is that a big difference this year?

Heeney would have gone higher if available to the free market.
Tex Walker would have gone higher.

The argument for/against Academies is there, but Academy picks aren't new for 2015.

Walker would not have gone in the 1st round....

 

[DangerSloane]

Talia, Hartigan and Lever are our first choice tall defenders. Otten is next cab off the rank, ahead of Shaw. It only requires one injury.

Yeah but he shouldn't be, that's the point.
Hes not a KPD's a-hole.

 

[DangerSloane]

Walker would not have gone in the 1st round....

He wouldn't have gone 75 though.

 

[Bacon8]

Walker would not have gone in the 1st round....

He still would have gone higher.

 

[Captain Furious]

Corrected your mistake. They might not be selected frequently, but when they do it is almost always to fill a KPD role.

Do you actually watch games?

My mistake? You referred to 3rd talls as KPDs and now you're trying to backpedal. Again. Standard behaviour for you.

I would like you to show me one game where Otten lined up at FB or CHB. If it happens regularly, you shouldn't have any problem finding one game.

 

[Carmo]

Hello, just dropped in to explain text book drafting for us for this year.

Text book drafting is the better position you are in in results on the field over the last few years (especially compared to the age of your squad) and the more strength you have in the draft the more risk you take early.

We went ok over the last couple of years, not great, not poor on an absolute scale, but pretty good when you consider the age and experience of the team and squad.

That and the fact that we have a second early pick means that our first pick should be highest ceiling - almost regardless of the risk.

The good thing is most of the teams in front of us, even though they have high draft picks shouldn't really be going for highest ceiling even at high risk, they need to get some good players even if they have to drop down a bit of ceiling to reduce the risk of them being a let down. It is a bit of a pain in the butt that melb and essendon have two picks each in front of us, potentially they could go really high ceiling, but geez, with their recent records I dunno if I'd want to do that if I were them. So hopefully we have a good chance of getting the highest ceiling player in the draft with where we are positioned at 9.

Then our pick 13 should be a similar pick to picks 1-8 and even 11,12 and 14 should be high/ moderate ceiling - moderate/low risk players.

 

[Vader]

how does the bidding the process change anything? Points system is different but that doesn't really change the early picks

Because the bidding process has allowed the Academy clubs to trade out many of their 1st round picks, while maintaining the number of points required to get their players. This means that there are more "live" selections ahead of us than there were previously.

For example, GWS originally had pick #8. Under the old system, they would have been forced to use this on Hopper. Under the new system, they've traded pick 8 away, thus inserting another "live" pick ahead of pick #9.

 

[Vader]

That's not a change for this year though.

There's no real change (at least as far as we're concerned) with Mills/Sydney, because Sydney's original 1st round selection (which they would have been forced to use) is after our selection. There is a difference with Hopper/GWS, because GWS' original pick was ahead of ours.

 

[Captain Furious]

Look Watts is still an OK footballer, does some really outstanding stuff, just nowhere near enough of it for a Pick 1.....and then there's the brain fades. If he'd been taken in the 20's he would hardly be getting a mention as he wouldn't have the microscope on every minute of AFL he plays.

Yeah Watts would be a champion if footy was non-contact.

 

[Vader]

Again, how is that a big difference this year?

Heeney would have gone higher if available to the free market.
Tex Walker would have gone higher.

The argument for/against Academies is there, but Academy picks aren't new for 2015.

What has changed is the ability to trade out of the first round, while still getting their hands on this elite talent.

Under the previous system, the bidding process took place before trading commenced - and F/S & Academy picks were locked in (not allowed to be traded) after that point. Under the new system, clubs can trade down.

For example, GWS would have been forced to use pick #8 on Hopper. This draft pick would have been quarantined. Thus there would only be seven "live" selections before #9. Under the new system, they've traded pick #8 and there are now eight "live" selections ahead of #9.

 

[GrommoT]

... It is a bit of a pain in the butt that melb and essendon have two picks each in front of us, ...

And Carlton too ... even if they are Cat 'C' Rookies for us

Spoiler

 

[Vader]

Yeah but he shouldn't be, that's the point.
Hes not a KPD's a-hole.

The club regards him as a KPD. Whether you do or not really doesn't matter. Whether you rate him or not really doesn't matter. The fact is that the club regards him as a KPD option and has regularly used him in that role in the past.

 

[Vader]

Do you actually watch games?

My mistake? You referred to 3rd talls as KPDs and now you're trying to backpedal. Again. Standard behaviour for you.

I would like you to show me one game where Otten lined up at FB or CHB. If it happens regularly, you shouldn't have any problem finding one game.

Depends on how you define a KPD. If you define it strictly as CHB and FB, then he requires 2 injuries before he's playing as a KPD. However, most clubs play 3x tall defenders. Given the regularity with which defenders are rotated against the forwards (particularly if one of the forwards starts dominating), this is a difference without distinction. All 3 tall defenders are effectively KPDs.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Can everyone who hates the idea that we won't see our pick 9 on the stage on draft night accept thats its mostly for the players. These boys have put the hard work in and if they are the best 10 in that year then they deserve to be on stage. It maybe nice for us supporters to see our draftee but its for the player to be recognised.

Agree and I couldn't give a flying heck if our colours are on stage

All it means is you've either missed the 8 the previous year or lost your best player

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Looking at Twomey's form guide today, I'm predicting we end up with Francis and Tucker (would be very happy with this), although dream scenario is Francis and Milera, if the go home factor is true, maybe he slides to 13.

(Ignoring academy picks)

1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Curnow
4. Parish
5. Weideman
6. Milera
7. Oliver/Balic
8. Mckay
9. Francis
10. *
11. Oliver/Collins
12. Ah Chee
13. Tucker

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

If Callum Mills was available to all clubs he could even go Pick 1, just doesn't seem fair given Sydney's sustained success that "struggling" clubs with little or zero success for years don't get a crack at him is all.

It changes what clubs have access to individual players but, as in Sydney with Mills, Brisbane are virtually getting 2 top 10 prospects in an uncompromised draft Hipwood and Keays, the Giants Hopper and Kennedy. In an uncompromised draft Mills, Keays and Kennedy would be going elsewhere.

We're not talking about the academy's as a whole, it was about the effects of the new bidding process. Last year we couldn't get Heeny, this year we can't get Mills nothing has changed in that regard.

 

[Vader]

We're not talking about the academy's as a whole, it was about the effects of the new bidding process. Last year we couldn't get Heeny, this year we can't get Mills nothing has changed in that regard.

It doesn't affect the availability of the Academy players. It does affect the number of "live" selections ahead of us, with the Academy clubs trading away the picks which would previously have been used to select the Academy players. Thus picks which were previously pre-selected become "live".

 

[Archie87]

The AFL should have reserved the accumulation of points for academy/FS picks only for the draft night itself. All it's done is allowed bottom feeders like MelTank to use playstation trades to weasel their way up the draft order. It should have been done on as as needs basis i.e. instead of clubs guessing how much points they need, they should only be able to negotiate with other clubs for more points once a club nominates them. What if a club only needs half the points they accumulated? Now a club like Melbourne could be unfairly advantaged because another club guessed incorrectly how much points they'd need.

I don't like the new system anyway. Look at Heeney last year. Sydney would have still got him for 18 if MelTank bid pick 2, they would have also just had to give away a whole bunch of meaningless late picks away too which they wouldn't care about anyway.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Because the bidding process has allowed the Academy clubs to trade out many of their 1st round picks, while maintaining the number of points required to get their players. This means that there are more "live" selections ahead of us than there were previously.

For example, GWS originally had pick #8. Under the old system, they would have been forced to use this on Hopper. Under the new system, they've traded pick 8 away, thus inserting another "live" pick ahead of pick #9.

Right I follow you, but I would say that is a result of the points system rather than the actual bidding process itself, I thought you meant that things would change on the night when clubs start bidding. The effects on us of the new system have already happened, we just don't know the end result yet.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

It doesn't affect the availability of the Academy players. It does affect the number of "live" selections ahead of us, with the Academy clubs trading away the picks which would previously have been used to select the Academy players. Thus picks which were previously pre-selected become "live".

I know but that's not what Bicks was saying.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

The AFL shouldn't have reserved the accumulation of points for academy/FS picks only for the draft night itself. All it's done is allowed bottom feeders like MelTank to use playstation trades to weasel their way up the draft order. It should have been done on as as needs basis i.e. instead of clubs guessing how much points they need, they should only be able to negotiate with other clubs for more points once a club nominates them. What if a club only needs half the points they accumulated? Now a club like Melbourne could be unfairly advantaged because another club guessed incorrectly how much points they'd need.

I don't like the new system anyway. Look at Heeney last year. Sydney would have still got him for 18 if MelTank bid pick 2, they would have also just had to give away a whole bunch of meaningless late picks away too which they wouldn't care about anyway.

it's not just melbourne though, all clubs have the opportunity to move up the order because of it, and that's not necessarily true about their later picks.

 

[GrommoT]

... I don't like the new system anyway. Look at Heeney last year. Sydney would have still got him for 18 if MelTank bid pick 2, they would have also just had to give away a whole bunch of meaningless late picks away too which they wouldn't care about anyway.

The counter argument to this would be that suppose Sydney had 5 really talented Academees that under the previous bidding system, they could have easily gotten all 5 of them using late picks to match bids.

Under the new system, they would be very unlikely to be able to collect enough picks/points to get them all if other teams bid for them in the early rounds.

Spoiler

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####......... RUMOURS .........####

Spoiler: Horseflee

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We will land Luko, his family met with the club week's ago
Question yourselves how Fog got to us last year? He was picked by many expert's as a top 5 player
Going to be a good evening, the clubs know who is picking who
Nov 22, 2018

We will be active today... 100% confident deal's will be done and will top the McGovern deal for this period
Apparently waiting for a deal to fail/fold so we can slide under the carpet
Oct 17, 2018
FAIL

I believe Pyke is in ownership mode as opposed to trusting his department like he has in the past
This is something clarko has been doing for a long time
In regards to McGovern I'm certain it will come to light once a trade gets done it the root cause for the fall out is between Pyke & McGovern disagreement. I stated this weeks ago but had it confirmed once again
Oct 6, 2018
UKWN

The McGovern trade wont go as smooth as it seem's
I find it interesting Pyke has been in melbourne for some time. It has been mentioned that he has been taking a Clarkson approach and leading conversations with trade target's
Oct 6, 2018

Wingard deal is close to done with bulldogs involving pick 6
FYI
Sep 30, 2018
FAIL

Crows camp still keeping McGovern options open. Other clubs still have a chance
Sep 27, 2018
UKWN

AFC In: #13 (Syd), McAdam & 2019#r5 (Carl)
Syd In: #26 & #28 (Carl), #40 (AFC)
Carl In: Gov (AFC), 2019#r3 (AFC)

I am highly confident McGovern wont get to carlton
Sep 27, 2018
FAIL

Listen fool, we have heard from his manager and that is it
If McGoverns reason's for wanting out as his manger claim's then he will accept a trade to any victorian club if carlton cant offer a decent trade.
I would let this unfold a bit further before getting excited
Wont go down as simple as you think and crows wont end up losing a highly rated contracted talent for an AFL untried mature aged player & 2nd round pick
Let the crows camp talk
Sep 27, 2018

A deal wont get done, won't twist that way
Sep 27, 2018
FAIL

I'm maintaining my confidence that McGovern will not be playing for carlton in 2019
Gotta wake up to the reality of this situation, even if he nominates carlton a better offer will come & the choice will be in our court not his
Sep 26, 2018
FAIL

Well they need to get pass our pick 8, 16 and
McGovern with their pick 10 and 11.....

What are port doing atm?
Garage sale for what?
Sep 24, 2018

Port have talked to Rankine more than 3 times
This is an FYI
Sep 24, 2018

Carlton only have top tier pick's to trade, Other clubs have pick's & player's of value
Carlton can't make muilt team blockbuster trade's (department is dumb)
Other clubs can & will
While carton seem to be in prime position trade wise, they really are not. To attain player's & pull off trade's they have to pay over's (both in trade currency & player salary) and by long shot as opposed to slightly
Let it unfold, shoot me if I'm exposed to be wrong
Sep 24, 2018
FAIL

McGovern WILL NOT be playing for carlton in 2019
I'll say it again, have patience and wait for a twist in this situation
All this talk about McAdam is wrong
Sep 24, 2018
FAIL

This will get sour for most fan's when you realise we will lose McGovern & receive less than a top 5 pick
But the club wont lose in this off-season it will just seem so at first
QUESTION: when will the club appoint more coaching staff & who?
Sep 23, 2018

West Coast will be happy to lose Lycett, they have better options on the way from either the saints or GWS
Sep 23, 2018
DRAW

Would like to mention this
Pyke is very black & white with his communication to players, hardly a soft coach like he seem's
I believe this played a major part.
Stop all the camp this camp that, money this money that. THIS is a workplace and when people dont see eye to eye with the boss it is never a win win situation
Sep 20, 2018

That sign off was eerily familiar, I’m sure crouch has used it, the Snake has, I’m sure the horse trainer has and I’m pretty sure the red horse has too
Sep 19, 2018

All sweet, there has been a few of us end of season flog's already in 2018
Hardly given any BIG FISH insight, maybe I should of posted the bigger rumours heard that seem more far fetch
I will leave you to 5AA
Enjoy the twist, this off season will be our best
Sep 19, 2018

Collingwood close on a deal for May. 1st round pick & future 2nd
GC want 2 first pick's but will fold
Be interested in where Moore lands.
If this look's to unfold it will give indication on what we will get for McGovern
Sep 19, 2018
FAIL

Why is all the talk of Moore on the brink of re-signing then?

They will only re-sign him if all chances of trading in May or Gov is lost
Moore wont come cheap, he has the same value as McGovern if not more "excuse the pun"
Really have to ask WHY has moore not signed yet? Simple answer is collingwood low balled an offer in hopes to get Lynch
I stated a week ago to watch this space between Hawks & Collingwood. 2 clubs wanting Moore is sydney & bulldogs for interest sake
IMO McGovern will either fly home or be a hawk simple reason is I don't think collingwood and crow's can make a trade happen.
AND dont see collingwood giving up Moore for McGovern in the end of it but they will give up moore for May if it can happen
In regards to carlton, even if he nominates the blue spooner's the 2 clubs wont get a deal across the line & he will stay.
You can all have a dig but from my mailroom Hawks have been in contact with his manager for some time
Sep 18, 2018
FAIL

Collingwood & Hawks continue to surface to be big players this off season
Just wait for it
Sep 17, 2018
DRAW

Heard hawks have entered the race for Gov
Won't be at Carlton in 2019, the are just media are dry
Sep 17, 2018
FAIL

Heard hawks have entered the race for Gov
Carlton now taking to Hall as well as Shiel
More and more unlikely destination for McGovern
Sep 16, 2018
FAIL

Shiel will be at carlton
Bookmark it
Sep 16, 2018
FAIL

I believe the noise of Sydney after McGovern is slightly wrong
There is a good chance we are looking at a trading in a player at Sydney. I may have more information with this by lunch
I am not talking of a direct trade involving McGovern either
Sep 16, 2018
UKWN

.

 

[huludicidal]

Looks like the Blues will snap up Burton at pick 11. The Carlton poster who advised this has an impeccable record. I suppose there's a chance they take him at 8, but I suspect there's a couple of others that both Adelaide and Carlton like a touch more at 8 and 9 (Francis and perhaps McKay among them).

Pick 9 is looking more and more like one of Francis / Milera / McKay. I honestly can't see it being anyone other than these 3 now. It's a shame we don't appear to be in the mix for Oliver. If Francis is gone and Oliver is available, that is absolutely who I'd select.

Pick 13 should be one of the above if miraculously available, or more likely Tucker / Balic. The only way anybody else comes into the frame is if we take Milera at 9, and both of Francis and McKay are already gone by 13. If Carlton were to pass on Burton we'd probably take him in that circumstance. Otherwise it could be a bit of a wildcard pick, because I can't see us taking two of Milera / Tucker / Balic.

Gut feeling is that we don't take Milera, and therefore we do go with Tucker or Balic at 13. If it's a Francis / Tucker combo I'll be stoked. I'm completely unsold on McKay and Balic so am pretty keen to avoid them.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Okay, so now I'm thinking:

1: Weitering
2: Schache
3: Parish/Curnow
4: Weideman
5: Oliver/Parish
6: Milera
7: Curnow/Balic
8: McKay
9: Francis
10: Burton
11: Ah Chee/Oliver
12: Tucker

Edit: Based off C4 your door's prediction, added in Burton for Carlton's pick.