DT 2011 Mids Thread

[IDIG]

Didn't know which thread to post this in so think ill run with this one.

I'm contemplating a Swan/Bartel/Swallow + the rest midfield.

I know last year this was quite successful, and again this year the rookie talent looks to be in the midfield so is it risky, standard or conservative?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

When mentioning Swallow people need to put an A or a D in front of the name. Im assuming its the more expensive one.

I think your probably better off doing that in other areas, because there are only so many premium forwards or back that have a slight improvment, will be top 10, durable and score consistanly. The last is the major point, basically forwards and backs scores seem to go up and down like a YO YO. This is due to forwards relying on goals and having a defensive player on them or an offensive tag on quality backs.

In the midfield there arnt as many players that become cheap as forwards or backs, because they rely on possessions and tags only seem to affect there scores or getting smashed in a game or just a bad game.

Having said this, its important that people makesure they set themselves for an upgrade to Ablett after round 9. You are probably going to want to keeper D.Swallow till later on but he may be a viable option. At 160k he has R4,5,6,7,8,9 (6 games to increase his price substantially enough to upgrade to Ablett at R9).

 

[Athomas]

Value is about maximising points.

Swan gets you 246 points but you spend 123. You assume Boyd will improve his avg by 5 to 120.

You therefore get 240 points whilst only paying 115.

So you pay 8 less than that of Swan. So that 8 points in price can be used elsewhere.

So really it is 246 (Swan) vs 240 + 8 = 248 (Boyd).

If you see a high scoring player like Boyd or Goddard that are going to improve than you dont need the "must have lock" Swan. If you think Swan can maintain his avg or it will decrease a little than he is going to be at a much cheaper price later on. You wont be paying max value for him like everyone else.

I actually agree 100% DWD eek

Swan has little to no improvement and if you think someone like Boyd will jump to an even higher average (like I do) then I would be getting on them and using the $ elsewhere.

 

[54Dogs]

I actually agree 100% DWD eek

Swan has little to no improvement and if you think someone like Boyd will jump to an even higher average (like I do) then I would be getting on them and using the $ elsewhere.

Why do you think Boyd will jump to a higher average AT?

 

[Athomas]

Why do you think Boyd will jump to a higher average AT?

He's captain, the sub rule should mean he will get more time on the field, fit pre season and I rate the dogs this year to be in the top teams. Basically that, but mainly I was agreeing with DWD's concept.

 

[Ashb23]

When mentioning Swallow people need to put an A or a D in front of the name. Im assuming its the more expensive one.

I think your probably better off doing that in other areas, because there are only so many premium forwards or back that have a slight improvment, will be top 10, durable and score consistanly. The last is the major point, basically forwards and backs scores seem to go up and down like a YO YO. This is due to forwards relying on goals and having a defensive player on them or an offensive tag on quality backs.

In the midfield there arnt as many players that become cheap as forwards or backs, because they rely on possessions and tags only seem to affect there scores or getting smashed in a game or just a bad game.

Having said this, its important that people makesure they set themselves for an upgrade to Ablett after round 9. You are probably going to want to keeper D.Swallow till later on but he may be a viable option. At 160k he has R4,5,6,7,8,9 (6 games to increase his price substantially enough to upgrade to Ablett at R9).

well he doesn;t play round 9, so only 5 games. Doubtful he will go up enough....

 

[Wheedus]

well he doesn;t play round 9, so only 5 games. Doubtful he will go up enough....

Evening Ash

 

[yogibbear]

We need whoever Ablett is shagging to share us some inside information on how his groin is going... i'm still not sold on the post rnd 9 upgrade until i see him running around taggers like they are goal posts.

 

[IDIG]

When mentioning Swallow people need to put an A or a D in front of the name. Im assuming its the more expensive one.

I think your probably better off doing that in other areas, because there are only so many premium forwards or back that have a slight improvment, will be top 10, durable and score consistanly. The last is the major point, basically forwards and backs scores seem to go up and down like a YO YO. This is due to forwards relying on goals and having a defensive player on them or an offensive tag on quality backs.

In the midfield there arnt as many players that become cheap as forwards or backs, because they rely on possessions and tags only seem to affect there scores or getting smashed in a game or just a bad game.

Having said this, its important that people makesure they set themselves for an upgrade to Ablett after round 9. You are probably going to want to keeper D.Swallow till later on but he may be a viable option. At 160k he has R4,5,6,7,8,9 (6 games to increase his price substantially enough to upgrade to Ablett at R9).

Cheers for the reply. I was actually referring to D. Swallow but I'm gonna take your advice on board and unstack my forward line and go a more traditional 4-0-2 midfield...although i'll probably change that around come season start

 

[Jars458]

We need whoever Ablett is shagging to share us some inside information on how his groin is going... i'm still not sold on the post rnd 9 upgrade until i see him running around taggers like they are goal posts.

Or.. we should all have him in round one because being a true champion he may have his best season ever. Lets not understimate how good this man is.

 

[54Dogs]

Or.. we should all have him in round one because being a true champion he may have his best season ever. Lets not understimate how good this man is.

I think it's also important not to underestimate how bad Gold Coast will be as well.

 

[Jars458]

I think it's also important not to underestimate how bad Gold Coast will be as well.

Agreed. We should pick no players from the Gold Coast!

 

[54Dogs]

agreed. We should pick no premiums from the gold coast!

efa



...

 

[yogibbear]

Or.. we should all have him in round one because being a true champion he may have his best season ever. Lets not understimate how good this man is.

I can think of about 23 reasons why we shouldn't have him rnd 1. I can't think of a single reason why i should have him. Can YOU?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

@ATHOMAS at least someone finally understands the concept and the fact that your going to do better if those assumptions take place.

Another thing against Swan is Pendlebury factor and not to many pies. Also as ive mentioned we arnt sure how the sub rule will actually affect him and the team, i think it could impact more than what people think.

Goddard is my bet for the highest avg next year, i see the most improvment in him. I also think Boyd will improve and this is basically based upon there strong finishes towards the back end of the year.

Having said that i think Swan avg 133 over X amount of games towards the back end of the season, so it could be argued that he will also improve, something im currently weighing up and still undecided about. If i think Swan will improve to 125 than ill be picking him.

Sorry my mistake on D.Swallow only 5 games it is than, to make enough money to upgrade to Ablett. Having said that Ablett may be no good and actually avg around 100. I will never underestimate the guy, he is the best player in the comp by some distance IMO. GC will really struggle next year, alot more than people think. They have some good players but running around with half your side of 18 year olds its going to be tough.

You have to ask yourself if Swallow can make enough money in 5 rounds and if Ablett can lose enough money in 5 rounds to be worth the trade. I say this because it might be important if your really wanting to upgrade to him to select a fit foley or B.Mclean at a higher price.

 

[Thorgils]

efa



...

Essential fatty acids?

 

[terminators]

I though Ablett was simply off everyone's radar:

- Groin injury
- Top 4 side to bottom 4 side
- No protection around him
- 2 byes in first 9 rounds
- Overpriced
- Unknown game plan
- Well documented how hard it is to score points in bottom teams


I'm just not sure how anyone serious could select him.

 

[Blues_FC]

Essential fatty acids?

edited for accuracy... but i like yours better

 

[Thorgils]

edited for accuracy... but i like yours better

New fangled computer speak, back to the abacus thor old boy. thanks

 

[HolyRioli]

I've gone back several pages but couldn't seem to find much on the topic of A Swallow - priced at 409K (so bottom end premium price) but has a pretty consistant DT game (great tackler) and with North tipped to improve this year, could well increase his average by 5ppg, but given he averaged 106 last year, would be happy if he stayed where he is. My question is - do you think there are equal / better options around that price range?

 

[JDWCE]

I've gone back several pages but couldn't seem to find much on the topic of A Swallow - priced at 409K (so bottom end premium price) but has a pretty consistant DT game (great tackler) and with North tipped to improve this year, could well increase his average by 5ppg, but given he averaged 106 last year, would be happy if he stayed where he is. My question is - do you think there are equal / better options around that price range?

He is one of the best at that price,
others to take note of would be;
Mitchell - always has a down game when he gets a hard tag on him enabling him to be picked up on the cheap
Stanton - always racks them up but playing for an essendon team that isn't considered on the rise this year
Sylvia - durability issues
Boak - number 1 tag (either him or pearce) and plays for a bottom 8 team

Hope that helps

 

[yogibbear]

The problem with the lower end upper echelon premium midfielders is that you can't start too many of them even if you knew they were all going to improve by x ppg because you are fighting against people that might have one of these guys as their sixth midfielder and that's about it.

So something like Swan/Sewell/Anthony/A. Swallow doesn't work at all.

Though this doesn't stop anyone from trying it...

 

[Richo83]

I actually agree 100% DWD eek

Swan has little to no improvement and if you think someone like Boyd will jump to an even higher average (like I do) then I would be getting on them and using the $ elsewhere.

The adage that there's a dt scoring ceiling which every player adheres to of bunkum. Remember the time when people thought Ablett couldn't improve on his scoring, and told you to "pick him up in round six"? Remember the time when people told you no player could crack the 120 mark?

There seems to be little reason why Swan can't improve his average 5 points whereas Boyd can. Both rack up huge numbers. Swan averages 130.067 over the last 15 matches, which includes the last 11 h and a games and finals. A good measurement me thinks. He had a somewhat slow start to this season but I think Collingwood will hit their straps early. Easy draw. Hardly out of Melbourne early. If you want Swan cheap (and everyone will try and get Swan eventually) you'll have to get him soon because he wont be cheap. It seems silly to waste a trade on him when you don't have to. I can't see him dropping more than 30k anyway so it's hardly saving money. Unless you're picking Boyd and then cheapers (and even then, it's not that much of a saver) you're struggling for captains this year.

 

[Sergian]

Swan averages 130.067 over the last 15 matches, which includes the last 11 h and a games and finals.

That's crazy numbers.

 

[terminators]

The adage that there's a dt scoring ceiling which every player adheres to of bunkum. Remember the time when people thought Ablett couldn't improve on his scoring, and told you to "pick him up in round six"? Remember the time when people told you no player could crack the 120 mark?

There seems to be little reason why Swan can't improve his average 5 points whereas Boyd can. Both rack up huge numbers. Swan averages 130.067 over the last 15 matches, which includes the last 11 h and a games and finals. A good measurement me thinks. He had a somewhat slow start to this season but I think Collingwood will hit their straps early. Easy draw. Hardly out of Melbourne early. If you want Swan cheap (and everyone will try and get Swan eventually) you'll have to get him soon because he wont be cheap. It seems silly to waste a trade on him when you don't have to. I can't see him dropping more than 30k anyway so it's hardly saving money. Unless you're picking Boyd and then cheapers (and even then, it's not that much of a saver) you're struggling for captains this year.

It's a valid point. In reality Swan gets 30+ touches every game and only needs one more mark / kick per game to increase by 6 points. Given he will have more TOG this year it's not unreasonable.