DT 2011 Rookies Thread

[Lakey91]

Re: GC Debutants

How will the TPP work with a whole new team (with 10 new players) around? Wont that make things very interesting and potentially even a little problematic early in the season? Might mean that VS plug something into their system to adjust scores and prices early in the year (weighted round by round so that this adjustment becomes more limited as the season progresses and the MN approaches its true level).

I find this very interesting.

Might be worth tracking the MN in 2011, and then perhaps comparing to the round by round figures of 2010 just to see this difference in action.

PS - Loved the plug 54dogs

 

[timster]

Re: GC Debutants

Great stuff guys, does this mean that (in theory) as the GC players increase in price during the first 6-10 rounds, prices of premiums will drop even more? This could make it easier to upgrade to premiums earlier than usual - along with the extra bench player making more cash too! We could find this year that teams are finalised earlier (even more than last year ).

 

[54Dogs]

Re: GC Debutants

Great stuff guys, does this mean that (in theory) as the GC players increase in price during the first 6-10 rounds, prices of premiums will drop even more? This could make it easier to upgrade to premiums earlier than usual - along with the extra bench player making more cash too! We could find this year that teams are finalised earlier (even more than last year ).

What happens Tim is that during the first 8-10 rounds the hypothetical magic number drops by around 10% before it flattens out. So by way of example if you had a player averaging 100 priced at say 440,000 and they continued to play every game at exactly their 100 average, over the first 8 rounds their price would drop to under 400,000. So by only playing to their average they are actually negative value for your team.

The reason this happens is VS align all player averages to a total player price pool. So without getting to confusing if one players goes up in price, another must come down to keep the figure constant. So early in the year when there are a large number of rookies playing they are all going up in price extremely quickly, hence something has to go down. This tends to be the established players who have already found their true mark.

What we are saying above is that rookie price increases will be slower this year due to the sub rule slowing rookie scoring plus teams having the bye and not scoring at all.

So in theory premium player prices should drop slower this year than in other years.

 

[Walesy]

Re: GC Debutants

So in theory premium player prices should drop slower this year than in other years.

Timmy could be onto something there- but it all depends on the number of rookies the GC is playing. If they are playing half a team of bottom pricers, then they are going to be clawing even more of the pie from the premiums. Might be enough to offset the bye games.

One slight thing to consider- the teams that miss rounds 3 and 4- when the biggest upwards trends affect rookies- won't be quite as affected by the degradation in their premiums, as their salaries won't be counted when the pie gets given to the rookies- which *might* make it a little harder to aim for trading into a premium from these teams. Probably just a 1% thing though.

 

[chadleverington]

Re: GC Debutants

Great stuff guys, does this mean that (in theory) as the GC players increase in price during the first 6-10 rounds, prices of premiums will drop even more? This could make it easier to upgrade to premiums earlier than usual - along with the extra bench player making more cash too! We could find this year that teams are finalised earlier (even more than last year ).

This was something i also thought but wanted to keep to myself

 

[timster]

Re: GC Debutants

Very good points being made by all.
I was thinking more along the lines that depending upon how the GCoast players are priced (which I can't wait for the 1st of Feb to find out), they could have half a side at rookie prices. Based upon previous years where perhaps we had say 15-20 players as rookies in the first round or two, this could go up to 20-30 rookies being named in the first round or two. So between rounds 6-9 we could see some nice low premium player prices. I don't think the sub rule will have a lot of effect on rookies, it's too much an unknown at the moment. Let's see what happens in the first few weeks. Even if rookies are subbed off or on, they will still score above their required break even anyway (for a rookie)

 

[Wheedus]

Re: GC Debutants

Spot on Timster. I reckon the influx of a significantly higher number of rookie priced players in the earlier rounds will have the greater impact. It will be smoothed out somewhat by the round 4/5/6 effect but I suspect the effect on premiums will still be noticeable

BTW - this is my post - busted my Big Footy cherry

 

[daisy is a spud]

Re: GC Debutants

^^No; According to FanFooty the un-drafted players will be base price, which is about 84k

The players who are on GC's main list and haven't played AFL before should be the same price as other non first round draft picks (PSD, rookie etc.).
I would think it is highly likely that base price will increase this year rather than decrease due to the large number of likely debuts for GC as well as the base price has risen every year for abou the last 5. Last years base was 89,500 so i would estimate it will be closer to 100,000 this year. Would be nice if Monty was right thou.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: GC Debutants

The players who are on GC's main list and haven't played AFL before should be the same price as other non first round draft picks (PSD, rookie etc.).
I would think it is highly likely that base price will increase this year rather than decrease due to the large number of likely debuts for GC as well as the base price has risen every year for abou the last 5. Last years base was 89,500 so i would estimate it will be closer to 100,000 this year. Would be nice if Monty was right thou.

Remembering that the price of all players will drop to allow for 33 players in a squad as opposed to 30

 

[Lazarus]

Re: GC Debutants

Oh hai daisy

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Re: GC Debutants

Bump.

What will the GC forward line look like? Matera is a lock at this stage, and a lot of people have Prestia in their sides. Are there any other GC forwards likely to play in the first game and keep their spot?

I can think of; Day, Dixon, Patrick, Prestia, Liddy, Matera, N. Ablett... But obviously, they can't all be in the same team for Rd 2.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: GC Debutants

Bump.

What will the GC forward line look like? Matera is a lock at this stage, and a lot of people have Prestia in their sides. Are there any other GC forwards likely to play in the first game and keep their spot?

I can think of; Day, Dixon, Patrick, Prestia, Liddy, Matera, N. Ablett... But obviously, they can't all be in the same team for Rd 2.

Yeh it looks pretty thin.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Brennan play hit up at HF and Fraser spend fair chunks of time down there as well. They need some experience and stronger bodies in the front half. Obviously not rookies but will take spots from them when working it out.

I think the GC will be pretty transparent in the Nab Cup as they try and work out their best structures so that should give some guide.

 

[54Dogs]

Post all discussion here on rookies for 2011, be they mature age, draftees, PS draft or rookie draft. Doesn't matter if it crosses over with the positional threads, many posters will come looking for this information.

I've also merged the GC debutants thread with this one.

Cheers

 

[soreplums]

lamb or smith?

 

[54Dogs]

Some early popular rookies




BACKS

Toy
Hunt
Iles
Jacobs
Heppell
Puopolo
Coad
Talia



MIDS

Swallow
Gaff
Wallis
Mzungu
Callinan
Jacobs
Krakouer
Atley
Caddy


Rucks


Smith


Fwds


Matera
Darling
Callinan
Mzungu
Krakouer
I Smith
Richardson

 

[Wheedus]

Some early popular rookies


Fwds


Matera
Darling
Callinan
Mzungu
Krakouer
I Smith
Richardson

I'm assuming Richardson is Cam Richardson. I thought he was a BACK??

 

[Yellow Feathers]

I'm assuming Richardson is Cam Richardson. I thought he was a BACK??

Not anymore, according to the Prospectus. Forward now.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Blease as a mid, Tapscott as a forward

 

[jimmyclean]

Blease as a mid, Tapscott as a forward

Both players are awful, I totally disagree.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Both players are awful, I totally disagree.

pretty hopeless when i think about it, just like the melbourne side really.

 

[chadleverington]

Hibberd will gain in popularity i expect.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Hibberd will gain in popularity i expect.

Yeah i would imagine so

 

[Vecto]

Hope we're all getting excited for another year of dream team. Really enjoyed the discussion's especially from the likes of 54dogs. much appreciated thus far.

I'm just wondering what we're all thinking for the number of rookies to start on the field this year. At the moment I've got two in the mids, and one each in forwards and backs, and that's including Krakouer.

Obviously things are thrown up in the air with the bye, however I feel that with the third sub, as well as good use of the dual positioning system (or the DPS)
then you can afford to live life a bit more dangerously.

thoughts?

 

[soreplums]

Jakobi. Will get elevated. Will Play. And will star. Lock him in.

 

[54Dogs]

How's Brodie Smith tracking. Any chance of early games?