DT 2011 Rucks Thread

[Docker Dolph]

Hi guys if possible I would like some feedback on what I think is going to be my ruck strategy this year.

I'll start with Cox and Sandilands on the field, Smith and Derickx on the bench.

Petrie in the forward line to be used as a DP later.

I'm thinking of using Derickx as a cash cow, if he is named to play early in the season.

He's probably their 2nd ruckman at the moment behind Graham so he should get games.

Richmond's first bye is in round 11, with Fremantle and West Coast having 1 bye each before that, in different rounds.

I'm banking on one or both of my bench ruckmen to be playing in the rounds that one of Cox and Sandilands will be out.

Then when it comes to round 11 and time for Richmond's first bye, hopefully Derickx has played a fair few games and made some money. I can then trade him to J.Tippett who is a DP who can be substituted with Petrie for greater flexibility.

Is there merit to this strategy? Or is it too risky and am I better off going with Cox, Sandilands, Smith, J.Tippett with Petrie in the forward line from the start of the season?

Keep in mind that Tippett is very unlikely to play so won't be making any cash and would only be there for DP purposes.

Thanks guys.

Whilst the poo fight goes on I can tell you I think its a decent strategy. I wouldn't necessarily pull the trigger on the J. Tippett trade staright away though. By then you might see Smith as the #1 at GC or you maye have had some other injuries and used trades you didn;'t bank on. Maybe Max Bailey or Rob Campbell are just breaking in to their sides at that point.

At the other end, maybe Petrie is reinjured or stinking up the joint so you might want to upgrade him.

I reckon its highly likely that the first 3 guys you picked in the rucks carry you for the year which might mean you can save a trade on the DP link.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

Nothing has changes in the rucks since these years and if anything starting a cashcow (petrie is what your saying) is probably stronger for this year than the previous 3 years.

I could reel off 20 factors that make this years ruck situation entirely different to 3 years ago... but I'll save my breath.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I could reel off 20 factors that make this years ruck situation entirely different to 3 years ago... but I'll save my breath.

I would like to hear them, or the important ones??

Scoring has decreased in the highest scoring player, keeper avg has stayed about the same, Petrie had better number and history behind him now than what Simmo, Hille and HMAC had at the time.

The situation hasnt changed, Petrie comes with same risk as what these great picks all had for that year.

I agree with Cox, i didnt get to watch him but he mustve looked good and that helps, but anyone can look good against Grimley. Angus Graham wouldve had a field day aswell.

 

[Mailman]

To me the unlucky ruckman this year is Goldstein. I believe that he could well become dominant, but im very keen on getting Petrie in and therefore having two North players is a risk that i struggle with.
Rucks are a major issue in 2011.

What St Kilda do with McEvoy and Gardner is a key.

What GC do with Smith and Fraser is a key.

What Hawthorn do with Hale is a key.

What Richmond and Adelaide do with Derickx and Moran/McKernan(not a ruck) is also a key.

I can see me making decisions on rucks very late in the day prior to lockout

Mailman

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Well you could have both goldy and petrie. One as a forward and goldy as the ruck. IIRC the roos have an early bye so by that time Z.Smith should still be running around and able to cover. Having Petrie as a forward means you dont really need DPP if Goldy is in the rucks.

Must admit you brought up some several interesting players and how there role will be and if they have good JS.

Moran and Mckernan both performed in the NAB and can both play anywhere on the ground. Maric is very Brogan like and doesnt offer as much intensity and i cant see him as a forward. Jacobs was disappointing and think his ability up front is also limited. The crows setup is very interesting can they go with Moran, Tippett, Mckernan in the same side without the other 2 main rucks??

 

[Blues_FC]

Basically people these days dont pick midpricers because they need to be top 10-15 best scorers in that required position.

That's not true. As you know, the potential benefits of picking a mid-pricer are:

1. Best case scenario (what you said above): mid-pricer improves to the point that they are premium or at least keeper material.
2. Mid-pricer improves marginally, but not enough to be kept. Chances are, you may be able to do a straight swap to a fallen premium. In any case it may only require 1 trade, where a rookie often takes 2.
3. A mid-pricer usually has far greater job security than a rookie.

So I don't think you have to expect that your mid-priced player(s) will end up in the top 10-15. As you've said many times before DWD, it's all about increasing in value. I don't think it's out of the question to suggest that someone could come up with a team based heavily on mid-priced players and win the competition (like the Convicts did in 08). Just look at Lakey's team that wins without any trades. This team relies heavily on mid priced players.

The real trick is picking the right ones.

 

[Mailman]

my current structure feels a bit odd to me.'

Ive got Cox, Hale, Smith and Derickx with Petrie in the forwards to swap through with Hale.

It feels wrong, but right. Time will tell.

Hale at 180k is not too far away from Tippet at 115odd. Cant see Tippet doing any good, at least early on.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

That's not true. As you know, the potential benefits of picking a mid-pricer are:

1. Best case scenario (what you said above): mid-pricer improves to the point that they are premium or at least keeper material.
2. Mid-pricer improves marginally, but not enough to be kept. Chances are, you may be able to do a straight swap to a fallen premium. In any case it may only require 1 trade, where a rookie often takes 2.
3. A mid-pricer usually has far greater job security than a rookie.

So I don't think you have to expect that your mid-priced player(s) will end up in the top 10-15. As you've said many times before DWD, it's all about increasing in value. I don't think it's out of the question to suggest that someone could come up with a team based heavily on mid-priced players and win the competition (like the Convicts did in 08). Just look at Lakey's team that wins without any trades. This team relies heavily on mid priced players.

The real trick is picking the right ones.

Yeh i agree 100% with you im just speaking for the majority and what seems to be there thoughts. Not my thoughts, i was anwsering the question about why people dont pick midpriced teams no more?? there seems to be a theory that isnt backed up by facts.

 

[bombermick]

Would Warnock be a completely crazy pick? I think he has the potential to increase his scoring significantly, but it's hard to see him getting enough TOG once Kreuzer returns with only 3 bench spots.

 

[NinjaHamster]

Would Warnock be a completely crazy pick? I think he has the potential to increase his scoring significantly, but it's hard to see him getting enough TOG once Kreuzer returns with only 3 bench spots.

I don't see what Kreuzer's return has to do with Warnock's gametime ... it's not like Carlton are going to be making their young #1 draft pick, coming back from a major knee injury, play much time in the ruck now, is there ?

Nor will it generally be a case that you trade heavily for someone who is 206cm or so NOT intending him to get much Ruck time.

Ratten has mooted Kreuzer primarily playing in the forward line or even as a midfielder (non-ruck midfielder) upon his return.

 

[jonoman89]

Warnock will be number one ruck for at least the first half of the season. Kreuzer will be back by around rounds 3-5 in my opinion.

Robbie will be good for around a 70 average IMO. I doubt that's good enough for a ruck keeper.

But on the upside, he can play forward very well for a big man. And with the new substitute rules he should have a lot more TOG at full forward.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yeh i agree 100% with you im just speaking for the majority and what seems to be there thoughts. Not my thoughts, i was anwsering the question about why people dont pick midpriced teams no more?? there seems to be a theory that isnt backed up by facts.

Not speaking specifically about rucks, but I picked up Gwilt mid priced last year and managed to catch his breakout season.
But its hard to know who will break out and its pretty easy to pick up Masten every year ( which I also did ) until you learn to stop listening to those hopeful west coast supporters.
With a Rookie you know that if they play three games you won't come out short changed.

It depends on circumstances as well.
Mid priced because the player has had injury or limited playing time is different to mid priced because they are mid ability.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Yeah be wary of those West coast and Adelaide supporters, take everything they say with a grain of salt.

 

[cammo6556]

Yeah be wary of those West coast and Adelaide supporters, take everything they say with a grain of salt.

we are not all like that, but yeah, good point.

Im currently toying with the idea of gambling on derickx playing rd 1 and selecting petrie. am i any chance to get away with it? when do league draws get released? if i can size up my opposition prior it would help make the decision for me

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yeah be wary of those West coast and Adelaide supporters, take everything they say with a grain of salt.

Yeah my example wasn't so much about them. It was to point out that the mid range player everyone thinks may break out often doesn't. Another player no one thought would no any good often does though.
They are very hard to predict.
In contrast any spud rookie that gets three games will go up in value.

 

[Prem87]

Got Cox as first ruck which is a given, looks super fit this year and should average 95+ IMO

2nd ruck is much harder its down between Robbie Warnock, David Hale and McEvoy. Warnock is due for a big year and am leaning towards him, any thoughts?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I'v gone with McEvoy, though I cant help thinking that if Gardiner gets fit, they will try to get some games into him. So I'm going in prepared that he may be rested at random times throughout the year.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I'm a bit worried at these rumours abut Luenberger not being happy at Bris. Do you think that might make him play worse?

Although it did seem to make Rischitelli play better...

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I'm a bit worried at these rumours abut Luenberger not being happy at Bris. Do you think that might make him play worse?

Although it did seem to make Rischitelli play better...

You'd think he would want to maximise the size of the offer he gets from GWS.

 

[Tippaz]

Im currently toying with the idea of gambling on derickx playing rd 1 and selecting petrie. am i any chance to get away with it?

me too.
i am totally committed to Petrie despite missing rd1 & rd3
my 3rd ruck is Z.Smith who has a bye, so a cheap ruck like Derickx better be playing rd1 otherwise it's a donut for me

 

[SaintsSeptember]

me too.
i am totally committed to Petrie despite missing rd1 & rd3
my 3rd ruck is Z.Smith who has a bye, so a cheap ruck like Derickx better be playing rd1 otherwise it's a donut for me

How are they doing the first week lockout.
Wasn't it like a semi lockout last year, so that players that hadn't played yet could still be traded ( without counting the trade) after the teams were announced?

 

[Loud Eagle]

How are they doing the first week lockout.
Wasn't it like a semi lockout last year, so that players that hadn't played yet could still be traded ( without counting the trade) after the teams were announced?

Yeah its going to be a partial lockout again this year

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I dont see how you can pick Petrie after missing 2/3 games. His price wont start to rise until after round 5 and thats if he plays every game, remember this isnt even considering missing games with injury.

So he potentially could be a good downgrade target after his supsension and bye. With his ability to be DP that has some merit.

I think people are over estimating his scoring abilities from a FF position. He is still priced at 52~ so he really needs to shoot up to at least 70 to be a good pick, even than people would argue that hes a good pick. Danger went from 52>66 last year and not many were happy with him.

I think people are either picking Petrie because they believe he can avg ~75+ or even become a possible keeper. Otherwise there is not much point.

 

[WeninRome]

I dont see how you can pick Petrie after missing 2/3 games. His price wont start to rise until after round 5 and thats if he plays every game, remember this isnt even considering missing games with injury.

So he potentially could be a good downgrade target after his supsension and bye. With his ability to be DP that has some merit.

I think people are over estimating his scoring abilities from a FF position. He is still priced at 52~ so he really needs to shoot up to at least 70 to be a good pick, even than people would argue that hes a good pick. Danger went from 52>66 last year and not many were happy with him.

I think people are either picking Petrie because they believe he can avg ~75+ or even become a possible keeper. Otherwise there is not much point.

agreed

 

[Benno_900]

Well, he is priced at 200K. So by picking him, you've freed up 150K-200K to pick keepers elsewhere.

He can still avg around 80 IMO. For some, that'd be enough to be a keeper and for others, he'll be making some coin. But if you want to win the comp, that may not be enough.

Personally, I'm disregarding him and just locking in 2 premiums in the rucks (for now, anyway).