Eagles draft performance over recent years

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jatz14

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I read your post as you making 2 points:

A: Where we rank against the other teams, which I agree with, maybe a few spots would shuffle but largely wouldn't change

And B: on the value of a pick from 13 onward, with you saying the value is lower than what people might expect given that 76% are duds. Or taken another way, on the likelihood of getting a passable player.

I wasn't disagreeing with point A, and think your post gives an interesting look at where clubs sit relative to each other.

However I think on B the likelihood of getting a serviceable player with those picks onwards is a fair bit higher than 24% because I have very different metrics on what I consider serviceable (as you said in an earlier post, F is for Fringe and Fail, and I think fringe and fail are two very different things). I (and I suspect recruiters) rate the value of say pick 14 higher than you do and thought that was worth discussing.

This is a footy discussion board and you've posted something that inherently sounded like a discussion piece. If point B wasn't a point you were trying to make then just say "yeah it might change up player to player, this was more a comparison than a valuation of draft picks in general" and I'd be like ok gotcha sure. But given how you worded your OP with the whole "chances of finding a player later in the draft" stuff I think it's fair that people would be keen to discuss that side of it too.

Don't just auto-dismiss anything you don't like, better to either engage with it on a genuine level or just ignore it :thumbsu:
Its BigFooty, people that raise topics for discussion rarely want discussion, they just want validation.
 

amazingjoshy

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Apr 29, 2005
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I find your work very interesting. From your original post you said you gave the ratings A+ through to F. What resources/metrics did you use to assist in giving the ratings? Draftguru/PAV maybe? Because you'd have to be a savant of some kind to do this by gut feel for it.

And being a Freo nuffy is Sam Switkowski being given an F a mistake because even Tom Sheridan cracked a C. Having a guess here but was total games played the reason for Tom Sheridan ranking higher.

It's a very interesting read and alot work gone into it

Some of the rankings are pretty dubious though

Dylan Moore getting an F stands out to me
 

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mick06

Premiership Player
Aug 21, 2008
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I read your post as you making 2 points:

A: Where we rank against the other teams, which I agree with, maybe a few spots would shuffle but largely wouldn't change

And B: on the value of a pick from 13 onward, with you saying the value is lower than what people might expect given that 76% are duds. Or taken another way, on the likelihood of getting a passable player.

I wasn't disagreeing with point A, and think your post gives an interesting look at where clubs sit relative to each other.

However I think on B the likelihood of getting a serviceable player with those picks onwards is a fair bit higher than 24% because I have very different metrics on what I consider serviceable (as you said in an earlier post, F is for Fringe and Fail, and I think fringe and fail are two very different things). I (and I suspect recruiters) rate the value of say pick 14 higher than you do and thought that was worth discussing.

This is a footy discussion board and you've posted something that inherently sounded like a discussion piece. If point B wasn't a point you were trying to make then just say "yeah it might change up player to player, this was more a comparison than a valuation of draft picks in general" and I'd be like ok gotcha sure. But given how you worded your OP with the whole "chances of finding a player later in the draft" stuff I think it's fair that people would be keen to discuss that side of it too.

Don't just auto-dismiss anything you don't like, better to either engage with it on a genuine level or just ignore it :thumbsu:
Its a lot of words to make 1 point really

A. Just draft Reid
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2023
461
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Given I don't think I was disrespectful in my post, you responding like this kind of reads like "I'm just annoyed that people have disagreements with the large post I made"

If you did only just feel like I posted nothing, then surely you would have just not replied to it? It's a footy forum in the offseason, we're all basically posting nothing round in circles anyway
This is my final say on this:

There's plenty of flaws in my post, but it's more around anomalies created around the draft, is #13 the right number, etc. Those players that I think are Fs, but you don't:

1. When you go the draft, you're not intending to draft fringe players. You want a solid role player and above. A fringe player is in the team because a. there's no one better on the list, and b. you're seeing if he develops into a trusted role player. These guys often play 50-80 games because the club decides that they're not going to make it to the next level. These players are churn, it just takes a little longer to work out.

2. In the history of this thread, and therefore every thread for every team on BF, which extends to the wider football community, fringe players get baked. The general consensus on here is that Witho, Rotho, Disco, Watermelon etc, are all duds. It's deafening, so much so that a few times I've had to tell people to calm down and that fringe players don't really control our success. The only player you mention who isn't an F is de Boer, and that was just an oversight.

So I hope I don't even see you on here bagging our fringe players.

3. It doesn't change anything. Change a heap of those players from F to D, and it won't change the ranking (which is the purpose of this thread). They are fringe players. They don't really have much of an affect.


I didn't think you were being disrespectful, I just though you were carrying on like a Karen and making a big deal about something that really doesn't matter. A huge post to say your feelings got hurt that I think Mike Pyke can't play.
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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Sep 6, 2023
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Its a lot of words to make 1 point really
The point needs to be made. We constantly hear people lamenting how bad our drafting was, and that it was the main reason for our current predicament.

But it's actually not true, and the data is there for everyone to see.
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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I find your work very interesting. From your original post you said you gave the ratings A+ through to F. What resources/metrics did you use to assist in giving the ratings? Draftguru/PAV maybe? Because you'd have to be a savant of some kind to do this by gut feel for it.

And being a Freo nuffy is Sam Switkowski being given an F a mistake because even Tom Sheridan cracked a C. Having a guess here but was total games played the reason for Tom Sheridan ranking higher.

There's 776 players and you think they should all be perfect? Let me ask, if I upgrade Sam to a C or even B, will it make a difference? So why are you getting caught up in some small details, and not the overall point?

This is who Fremantle drafted during that period:



This is who St Kilda drafted during that period:




Do you agree that we can say Fremantle were better at drafting during that period? So why does it matter if I missed Switzkowski?
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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Its BigFooty, people that raise topics for discussion rarely want discussion, they just want validation.
Not in this case. People keep lamenting on how bad our drafting was. I wanted to check the data and actually see. And I also wanted to share this data.

It's easy to have a tantrum and cry about not drafting Warner or some other player, but the cold hard truth is than we ran about par for that period.
 

Kegs15

Just a fan
Apr 5, 2022
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This is my final say on this:

There's plenty of flaws in my post, but it's more around anomalies created around the draft, is #13 the right number, etc. Those players that I think are Fs, but you don't:

1. When you go the draft, you're not intending to draft fringe players. You want a solid role player and above. A fringe player is in the team because a. there's no one better on the list, and b. you're seeing if he develops into a trusted role player. These guys often play 50-80 games because the club decides that they're not going to make it to the next level. These players are churn, it just takes a little longer to work out.

2. In the history of this thread, and therefore every thread for every team on BF, which extends to the wider football community, fringe players get baked. The general consensus on here is that Witho, Rotho, Disco, Watermelon etc, are all duds. It's deafening, so much so that a few times I've had to tell people to calm down and that fringe players don't really control our success. The only player you mention who isn't an F is de Boer, and that was just an oversight.

So I hope I don't even see you on here bagging our fringe players.

3. It doesn't change anything. Change a heap of those players from F to D, and it won't change the ranking (which is the purpose of this thread). They are fringe players. They don't really have much of an affect.


I didn't think you were being disrespectful, I just though you were carrying on like a Karen and making a big deal about something that really doesn't matter. A huge post to say your feelings got hurt that I think Mike Pyke can't play.

Hmmmm yeah ok, I still think you're off on what contributes to team success (eg a very handy 2nd ruck playing most games of a premiership year). Difference between the absolute maximum recruiters would hope for and what they'd be happy with.

Pyke was plucked from the top of the list but like,

F - Podsiadly (picked up as 29 year old and kicked 50 goals in a premiership year)

F - Menegola (made the AA squad in a year Geelong made the GF)

F - Tory Dickson (40 goals in a premiership year, 50 the year before)

F - Ryan Lester, pushing 200 games, in and out of favour but really important to the side and important for Brisbane almost winning a GF

F - Luke Ball for Collingwood, really? Big role in a winning flag then clutched them through the 2011 finals series before losing that one.

Like if all these players are F for Fringe and Fail then geez, I think we just have different standards

Rotham I agree with you on haha, again those players like Witho etc you mention I think probably F at this stage but if one or more of them rise up, have an excellent season in a genuine contention year for us contribute significantly to team success then you'd have to reconsider. I rate stepping up in contention seasons/finals probably higher than average so I'm probably skewed towards that
 

Eastern Rangers

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Is there an exec summary?

This level of quantitative list analysis doesn't help identify variables required for premiership success.

List sizes are limited and identifying the right sort of players is as important than identifying "talent". Player ratings themselves are list dependent values and you can't compare players in poor football sides with the equivalent players in a good side.

We've been unable to optimize our draft and list capital for a host of reasons. West Coast has had bad luck with players like Venables and bad player management with players like Brander, we've been top heavy with our contract spread which limited our capacity to augment through trades. The players we targeted through trades have been lackluster and we've overestimated our ability to extract additional performance out of limited footballers.
 

On the quiet

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732106Nick LarkeyNorth MelbourneA
212015Ben McKayNorth MelbourneB
472013Ben BrownNorth MelbourneB
462018Curtis TaylorNorth MelbourneC
492018Bailey ScottNorth MelbourneC
422012Mason WoodNorth MelbourneC
172010Shaun AtleyNorth MelbourneC
252009Aaron BlackNorth MelbourneC
312019Charlie CombenNorth MelbourneF
342019Jack MahonyNorth MelbourneF
352019Flynn PerezNorth MelbourneF
692018Joel CrockerNorth MelbourneF
232017Will WalkerNorth MelbourneF
622017Kyron HaydenNorth MelbourneF
722017Tristan XerriNorth MelbourneF
772017Billy HartungNorth MelbourneF
342106Declan WatsonNorth MelbourneF
362106Josh WilliamsNorth MelbourneF
312015Ryan ClarkeNorth MelbourneF
332015Mitchell HibberdNorth MelbourneF
432015Corey WagnerNorth MelbourneF
602015Declan MountfordNorth MelbourneF
162014Sam DurdinNorth MelbourneF
252014Daniel NielsonNorth MelbourneF
362014Ed Vickers-WillisNorth MelbourneF
302013Trent DumontNorth MelbourneF
152012Taylor GarnerNorth MelbourneF
382012Ben JacobsNorth MelbourneF
482012Mitchell WilkinsNorth MelbourneF
582012Daniel CurrieNorth MelbourneF
632012Taylor HineNorth MelbourneF
782012Sam GibsonNorth MelbourneF
932012Aaron MullettNorth MelbourneF
1052012Majak DawNorth MelbourneF
182011Brad McKenzieNorth MelbourneF
402011Tom CurranNorth MelbourneF
742011Luke DelaneyNorth MelbourneF
842011Cameron PedersenNorth MelbourneF
272010Kieran HarperNorth MelbourneF
692010Cameron DelaneyNorth MelbourneF
712010Ben MabonNorth MelbourneF
982010Ben SpeightNorth MelbourneF
212009Ryan BastinacNorth MelbourneF
372009Jamie MacMillanNorth MelbourneF
412009Ayden KennedyNorth MelbourneF
532009Brayden NorrisNorth MelbourneF
802009Cruize GarlettNorth MelbourneF


St Kilda

so Himmelberg from GWS who has just been extended for 5 0r 6 years, can play back or forward took the mark of the year an F?
Payne an F, who prior to injuring his ankle against Swans in round 14, was arguably up there with some of the best lockdown defenders in the comp (especially with Taylor out). Payne has also been extended for a further 5 or 6 years.

Maybe I am misreading your post and apologise in advance if I have. Payne listed as pick 54 from the 2017 draft so I think Lions did pretty well, in that 2017 draft.
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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so Himmelberg from GWS who has just been extended for 5 0r 6 years, can play back or forward took the mark of the year an F?
Payne an F, who prior to injuring his ankle against Swans in round 14, was arguably up there with some of the best lockdown defenders in the comp (especially with Taylor out). Payne has also been extended for a further 5 or 6 years.

Maybe I am misreading your post and apologise in advance if I have. Payne listed as pick 54 from the 2017 draft so I think Lions did pretty well, in that 2017 draft.

1. There's 2 Himmelbergs. Maybe you got it wrong and got them mixed up, but maybe I got it wrong and got them mixed up? it doesn't matter. I don't even care enough to see which one of us got mixed up. It's a spread across 776 players, so if a few of them are wrong, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

2. Yes, you are misreading my post. If you think my post is specifically about ranking 776 players accurately, then you're not really understanding the point. Payne would have been an oversight. There's a few of them, but don't let it get to you.


So are you complaining about a few micro things being wrong? Because I have seen you complain about the macro. If you're not complaining about the macro, then the micro is accurate enough for purpose.
 

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Tony_Clifton

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Oct 25, 2002
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There's 776 players and you think they should all be perfect? Let me ask, if I upgrade Sam to a C or even B, will it make a difference? So why are you getting caught up in some small details, and not the overall point?

This is who Fremantle drafted during that period:



This is who St Kilda drafted during that period:




Do you agree that we can say Fremantle were better at drafting during that period? So why does it matter if I missed Switzkowski?
Your main conclusion is that 3/4 of players drafted after pick thirteen are F's. In terms of this conclusion there is no difference between an A and a B, an A and a C or a B and a C but there is an enormous difference between a C and an F.

So upgrading Switta to a C makes a categorical difference. And it's not like I went through every player and Switta is the only one I found.

You haven't addressed my main query as to your methodology in categorising players. I had guessed that you would have used some kind of player ratings model such as PAV from HPN, AFL player ratings etc etc to help categorise 700 odd players. Your failure to address this makes me think you just went with gut feel. Especially because you get angry at anyone questioning your methodology.

Garbage in garbage out
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2023
461
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This level of quantitative list analysis doesn't help identify variables required for premiership success.

List sizes are limited and identifying the right sort of players is as important than identifying "talent". Player ratings themselves are list dependent values and you can't compare players in poor football sides with the equivalent players in a good side.

We've been unable to optimize our draft and list capital for a host of reasons. West Coast has had bad luck with players like Venables and bad player management with players like Brander, we've been top heavy with our contract spread which limited our capacity to augment through trades. The players we targeted through trades have been lackluster and we've overestimated our ability to extract additional performance out of limited footballers.

I knew some people just wouldn't be able to cope that there are some mistakes, and bang on about it as if I just claimed the holocaust didn't exist, but what you wrote is relevant and should be discussed. I expected Richmond to be better simply based on players walking into a good side.

To me the talking points are, a) West Coast not that bad, b) Fremantle were crazy good but no flag, and c) St Kilda and North were deplorable. How is someone that incompetent?
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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Your main conclusion is that 3/4 of players drafted after pick thirteen are F's.
No, it's not.

I said it in the opening post. This came about because there is a widespread belief that the Eagles have been terrible at drafting outside the top 10 during this period. It gets repeated over and over again. I always suspected we were a bit under par, but didn't think we were near as bad as what may people kept saying. So it was about having some sort of way to accurately judge each club's draft performance.

The data is there. It's subjective as to what constitutes an F. Judging by how badly fringe players get talked about on every single board on BF, as well as how they cop it at games, I'm pretty confident my line reflects the average punter. BUT, in saying that, it really doesn't matter.

Fremantle drafted this:

St Kilda drafted this:


Those players I think are Fs, and you think are D's or C's, make no difference to draft performance of the above 2, or any of the clubs.



Your failure to address this makes me think you just went with gut feel.
Pretty sure it's commonly believed and known I went with gut feel (I also said this in the OP). I think you're the only person who has some expectation of using stats. You seem to be getting caught up in a few mistakes that really don't alter the outcome. Why are you Dockers guys so salty all the time?
 

Tony_Clifton

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Oct 25, 2002
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No, it's not.

I said it in the opening post. This came about because there is a widespread belief that the Eagles have been terrible at drafting outside the top 10 during this period. It gets repeated over and over again. I always suspected we were a bit under par, but didn't think we were near as bad as what may people kept saying. So it was about having some sort of way to accurately judge each club's draft performance.

The data is there. It's subjective as to what constitutes an F. Judging by how badly fringe players get talked about on every single board on BF, as well as how they cop it at games, I'm pretty confident my line reflects the average punter. BUT, in saying that, it really doesn't matter.

Fremantle drafted this:

St Kilda drafted this:


Those players I think are Fs, and you think are D's or C's, make no difference to draft performance of the above 2, or any of the clubs.




Pretty sure it's commonly believed and known I went with gut feel (I also said this in the OP). I think you're the only person who has some expectation of using stats. You seem to be getting caught up in a few mistakes that really don't alter the outcome. Why are you Dockers guys so salty all the time?
Thanks for your reply. It wasn't clear to me you went by gut feel. You said you assigned the ratings but I wrongly assumed that you used some kind of data to help you be objective, especially given you did it for 700 players from every club.

This clears up everything. It's the vibe of the thing but with numbers and tables.
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2023
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Thanks for your reply. It wasn't clear to me you went by gut feel. You said you assigned the ratings but I wrongly assumed that you used some kind of data to help you be objective, especially given you did it for 700 players from every club.

This clears up everything. It's the vibe of the thing but with numbers and tables.
It's the vibe with the players. The players each club drafted are not vibe.

I'll say it again:

Fremantle drafted this:

St Kilda drafted this:


That's no vibe. Clearly one club drafted better than the other, and clearly neither club won a flag.
 

Tony_Clifton

Club Legend
Oct 25, 2002
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It's the vibe with the players. The players each club drafted are not vibe.

I'll say it again:

Fremantle drafted this:

St Kilda drafted this:


That's no vibe. Clearly one club drafted better than the other, and clearly neither club won a flag.
I'm not sure why you think I care about fremantle or St Kilda. I'm not fussed either way. I was interested in your tables and conclusions till you made it clear to me that it's all based on your gut feel. I am no longer interested.
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

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Sep 6, 2023
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I'm not sure why you think I care about fremantle or St Kilda. I'm not fussed either way. I was interested in your tables and conclusions till you made it clear to me that it's all based on your gut feel. I am no longer interested.
No problem mate. Enjoy your weekend, I've hired a car for a trip down south.

1696571807204.png
 

amazingjoshy

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Apr 29, 2005
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Is there an exec summary?

I gonna post a thread with a bunch of data that i made up, inculding rating the likes of Dylan Moore and Sam Switkowski as failed picks (amongst many others) but don't worry about that just listen to my conclusions and don't dare question anything
 

Eddie_Sandbrah

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2023
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I gonna post a thread with a bunch of data that i made up, inculding rating the likes of Dylan Moore and Sam Switkowski as failed picks (amongst many others) but don't worry about that just listen to my conclusions and don't dare question anything
Hey bro, I noticed you didn't touch the conclusions but focused on 2 incorrect ratings out of 776.

I'm assuming you agree with the conclusions, because if you didn't, I assume I sure as s**t would know about it.
 

Orange crush

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Isaac Cumming (GWS) .... F farking lol
 

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