Election Predictor

[MightyFighting]

Click here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/


I'm scared.

 

[DaveW]

That site must be getting some heavy traffic. The nation graphic won't show up for me.

They've currently got Kerry 262 Bush 261 and 15 tied.

I'm guessing that 15 is made up of Wisconsin (10) and New Mexico (5).

It's 270 to win, which mean Wisconsin decides it. And Gore won the state last time.

 

[MightyFighting]

I'm guessing that 15 is made up of Wisconsin (10) and New Mexico (5).

Nope, New Jersey (15)

It has:
Kerry 42%
Bush 42%
Nader 1%


Wisconsin is barely Bush, New Mexico is barely Kerry.

 

[jim boy]

Found this interesting from that site;

Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist announced last week that he was going to return to the Supreme Court yesterday. He did not return. According to the New York Times his office released a terse statement saying that the Chief Justice spent 7 days at Bethesda Naval Hospital where he was treated for thyroid cancer. He underwent a tracheotomy so he could breathe and he is now being given both chemotherapy and radiation treatment. Medical experts say this evidence suggests that the cancer was not successfully removed and that even with heroic treatment, patients with this type of cancer usually die within a year. Should the election end up in the Supreme Court, it is not known whether Rehnquist will particpate in the case and vote on the outcome. Should he decline to participate due to ill health, the deadlock in the country might end up in a Court itself deadlocked 4-4. In such an event, the lower court ruling stands but no legal precedent is set. An alternative scenario is that Chief Justice Rehnquist resigns and that President Bush makes a recess appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation. If Bush were to appoint a new justice without Senate confirmation who then cast the deciding vote to make Bush president I fear for the future of the country.

 

[MightyFighting]

This image suggests to me that Kerry should win New Jersey:

 

[DaveW]

Even better.

New Jersey is an unlikely pick-up for Bush.

 

[Dippers Donuts]

Exit polls seem to heavily favour kerry at this stage; although there is a historical trend in that apparently.

Even Fox are sounding worried.

 

[usalion]

I hit the polling station at 11 AM- numbers seem to be up, which is good news for JFK II- and being in Ohio, it is especially good news- this one is listed as too close to call.
the SC thing is scary, though....especially if Bush appoints somebody without needing approval. And I'll bet he is chatting with rehnquist about possibly resigning if that is the scenario.....

 

[DaveW]

Should the election end up in the Supreme Court, it is not known whether Rehnquist will particpate in the case and vote on the outcome. Should he decline to participate due to ill health, the deadlock in the country might end up in a Court itself deadlocked 4-4. In such an event, the lower court ruling stands but no legal precedent is set. An alternative scenario is that Chief Justice Rehnquist resigns and that President Bush makes a recess appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation. If Bush were to appoint a new justice without Senate confirmation who then cast the deciding vote to make Bush president I fear for the future of the country.

They were discussing this on Lateline last night.

Although the bit about bypassing the Senate wasn't raised as an option.

 

[MightyFighting]

Huge turnout ("well over 60%" ).

That augurs well for Kerry.

 

[Contra Mundum]

They were discussing this on Lateline last night.

Although the bit about bypassing the Senate wasn't raised as an option.

Chief Justice Antonin Scalia - Eiyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

 

[jim boy]

Well so far it's;

George W. Bush, GOP (i) 9,027 (63.0%)
John F. Kerry, Dem 5,181 (36.2%)
Ralph Nader, Grn 47 (0.3%)

A good lead by Bush, but too early to call!!

 

[DaveW]

Well the only polls to have closed so far are in parts of Republican Indiana and Kentucky.

Is that what the above is?

 

[jim boy]

Well the only polls to have closed so far are in parts of Republican Indiana and Kentucky.

Is that what the above is?

Partial results from those two states.

The New York times has a good interactive map at http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONRESULTS_GRAPHIC/index.html

It seems to be updated every few minutes

 

[jim boy]

Indeed with 4% of the vote counted, Kentucky is displaying a 1% swing to the Democrats. That's certainly not anywhere enough for the democrats to win this state, but it is still a positive early sign for the democrats. Repeat this across the country and Kerry wins.