Fantasy EPL - 18/19

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Fair enough, I usually don't like cash just sitting in the bank, not growing value.

If you buy cheap players who will grow in value because they're playing, doesn't that tend to mean you'll have cash in the bank?

I love to make a team full of smokeys, and then find I have heaps of cash, so upgrade to the obvious choices like Kane, Salah, Mendy and suddenly my team looks like everyone else's.

Violent conduct

Lel, gets me every time

I don't get it.

 

[SM]

If you buy cheap players who will grow in value because they're playing, doesn't that tend to mean you'll have cash in the bank?

I love to make a team full of smokeys, and then find I have heaps of cash, so upgrade to the obvious choices like Kane, Salah, Mendy and suddenly my team looks like everyone else's.

I don't get it.

No? It means you have a balance between premiums who will score you consistent points, and cheap gems who will grow in value.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

No? It means you have a balance between premiums who will score you consistent points, and cheap gems who will grow in value.

I agree with your later point that chasing value isn't actually worth that much. I've never done it. There are always lots of solutions for freeing up cash to change players around. But my point was that if you wanted to do that, having cash in the bank is pretty much guaranteed as the players that rise a lot are valued too low in the first place.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Team value can be a bit of a furphy. For example last year if you started with Salah at 9.0 and he rose to 10.0, your team value increased by 1.0 but realistically it means nothing unless you sell him which would have been a bad move. It can definitely be worthwhile buying someone in before they rise if you wouldn't have been able to afford them afterward but a lot of the time players rise because managers chase points and look at what players have done rather than what they will do in future weeks.

 

[SM]

I agree with your later point that chasing value isn't actually worth that much. I've never done it. There are always lots of solutions for freeing up cash to change players around. But my point was that if you wanted to do that, having cash in the bank is pretty much guaranteed as the players that rise a lot are valued too low in the first place.

Sure but you do it as a one up one down.

 

[SM]

Team value can be a bit of a furphy. For example last year if you started with Salah at 9.0 and he rose to 10.0, your team value increased by 1.0 but realistically it means nothing unless you sell him which would have been a bad move. It can definitely be worthwhile buying someone in before they rise if you wouldn't have been able to afford them afterward but a lot of the time players rise because managers chase points and look at what players have done rather than what they will do in future weeks.

Yep spot on.

 

[SloaneysDanger]

There's definitely something to be said for boosting your value, but then keep in mind that you can only recoup half of that when you trade, so there's something illusory about TV all the same. For example, if I'd held Sterling all season last year, my TV would have been huge just off the back of his price rises.. but does that actually mean I have more cash to spend? Sure, if I sell him, but then I only get half of it. Having it as an unrealised gain is actually more valuable.

Another example this season is Richarlison, about to go up again for an all up 0.3 rise over the first two weeks. Is it more valuable keeping him and the 0.3 value in my team, or in a few weeks do I move him on to a Fraser type? Lose some of that value but maybe it's a stepping stone to keep moving the value up 0.2 (or 0.1 to my actual value) at a time.

I think last season I chased price rises a bit too much and it didn't actually help a whole lot in the long run. Keeping well performing players and being mindful of players dropping value seems a better strategy this time around.

I definitely agree and understand. I looked at some teams who did well last season and their TV was much better than mine, so maybe not trading the players out who dropped in price is what cost me.

 

[SM]

I definitely agree and understand. I looked at some teams who did well last season and their TV was much better than mine, so maybe not trading the players out who dropped in price is what cost me.

Yeah for sure, I guess it's a funny one, if you do well, your team value will likely be good, but if your team value is good, it doesn't automatically mean you do well lol.

 

[jd2010]

eing mindful of players dropping value seems a better strategy this time around

Yeah this is what I'm thinking. Was surprised to see Sessengon go down to 6.4 today. Obviously a lot of transfer outs with people having not watched him against us. I thought he was very dangerous and is bound to start scoring soon

 

[Jason Derulo]

Long story short I am talking myself into wildcarding even though I'm on 180 points. Don't won't to have to wait on alonso and don't want to miss out on arsenals good fixtures combined with wanting ederson instead of 2 untrustworthy 4.5s.

After wildcarding my team will look like:

Ederson

Mendy-Shaw-Robertson-Alonso

Mane-Richarlison-Fraser-Mkhitaryan

Aguero-Kane

My team will also be salah-less.
Crazy or genius?

 

[Cruyff14]

That is a very good team IMO.

 

[tigland]

Long story short I am talking myself into wildcarding even though I'm on 180 points. Don't won't to have to wait on alonso and don't want to miss out on arsenals good fixtures combined with wanting ederson instead of 2 untrustworthy 4.5s.

After wildcarding my team will look like:

Ederson

Mendy-Shaw-Robertson-Alonso

Mane-Richarlison-Fraser-Mkhitaryan

Aguero-Kane

My team will also be salah-less.
Crazy or genius?

How would your bench look?

 

[Jason Derulo]

How would your bench look?

Hamer, Wan-bissaka, Schneiderlin, Ings with 0.6 itb.

 

[jd2010]

Geez that makes it tempting not to have Salah. No Hazard, Eriksen or Sanchez as well is risky. Surely that’s the top 4 midfield scorers and going without them is going to not work out

 

[Cotchy9]

Is it too early to go for the Wildcard? First year player and not sure when the right time is

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Is it too early to go for the Wildcard? First year player and not sure when the right time is

Not if you think there are multiple players that are essential which you don’t have. I would say most people play their wildcard in the first handful of gameweeks.

 

[Cotchy9]

Not if you think there are multiple players that are essential which you don’t have. I would say most people play their wildcard in the first handful of gameweeks.

Who would you say are the must haves at this early stage?

Mendy, Alonso
Man’e, Salah, Richarlison
Aguero

They seem the obvious ones to me at this point

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Who would you say are the must haves at this early stage?

Mendy, Alonso
Man’e, Salah, Richarlison
Aguero

They seem the obvious ones to me at this point

I would add a Liverpool defender too, Robertson followed by Alexander-Arnold. All City players outside of Ederson and probably Mendy are risks to me becuase of rotation. Aguero will be amongst the goals with their upcoming fixtures over the next two months even if he doesn’t start every week but it wouldn’t surprise me if Aubameyang outscores him over the same period.

 

[jd2010]

Aguero to Kane over the next 2-3 weeks is a transfer worth doing. Injury aside Kane is no rotation risk and we’ve got a good run after the United game

 

[SloaneysDanger]

Aguero to Kane over the next 2-3 weeks is a transfer worth doing. Injury aside Kane is no rotation risk and we’ve got a good run after the United game

Not sure I'd be doing this. There was strong rumours Kun would be benched last week and Pep pulled a surprise by starting both he and Jesus. He didn't play the two of them up-top a lot last season so the fact he's done it two weeks into the season shows it's a formation he is willing to keep playing, particularly at home against poor teams like Huddersfield who will have 10% possession and park the bus all game until they finally concede and the flood gates open.

 

[SM]

Pep has been gushing about Kun's fitness, and after a hattrick I see no chance of him being benched.

 

[jd2010]

Not sure I'd be doing this. There was strong rumours Kun would be benched last week and Pep pulled a surprise by starting both he and Jesus. He didn't play the two of them up-top a lot last season so the fact he's done it two weeks into the season shows it's a formation he is willing to keep playing, particularly at home against poor teams like Huddersfield who will have 10% possession and park the bus all game until they finally concede and the flood gates open.

Yeah I wouldn’t be doing that right away but I ddon’t think Aguero will be at this level for a long period

 

[SM]

Yeah I wouldn’t be doing that right away but I ddon’t think Aguero will be at this level for a long period

Why not?

 

[jd2010]

Why not?

I think he'll be on about 6-8 goals after 5 games & will finish with around the 22 mark for the season. Meaning 12-14 goals in the final 33 games. Even if he got a career best 26 league goals that leaves roughly 20 goals in the final 33 games.

My thinking is he and Kane will score the same amount of goals for the season but will have different purple patches. Rather than just get their 22 goals I'll try and maximise them by switching over at some point.

Just my hunch that he won't go on a Salah type full season of form and hit 30+

 

[SM]

I think he'll be on about 6-8 goals after 5 games & will finish with around the 22 mark for the season. Meaning 12-14 goals in the final 33 games. Even if he got a career best 26 league goals that leaves roughly 20 goals in the final 33 games.

My thinking is he and Kane will score the same amount of goals for the season but will have different purple patches. Rather than just get their 22 goals I'll try and maximise them by switching over at some point.

Just my hunch that he won't go on a Salah type full season of form and hit 30+

That's a rather specific thing to think lol. He's in the best shape he's been in in years according to pep. If they go two up top against the smaller clubs and have those sorts of days regularly he could crack 30 goals.