Federal Polling

[Mr Q]

Apparently tomorrow's Newspoll in the Australian is indicating that the Rudd honeymoon is not over: on two party preferred, Labor is ahead 56-44 - an 8.8% swing from the last Federal election.

If (and we all know it wouldn't) that was consistent across the nation, it would see 34 seats change hands, resulting in Labor having a 40 seat majority - it's certainly landslide territory.

Not that I think for a minute that this sort of polling will be remotely indicative of the situation once an election comes around. There's barrels of pork waiting out there on both sides waiting to influence the voting in marginal electorates.

 

[Tiger 1985]

Labor in strong poll position
By Dennis Shanahan

KEVIN Rudd and the ALP are riding an environmental wave to the party's best electoral position in six years as the new Labor team's honeymoon with the voters continues.

As the Opposition Leader campaigns on an anti-nuclear, climate-change and water-relief platform, Labor appears to be getting support from the Greens and Nationals to eclipse the best of Mark Latham's leadership and Kim Beazley's last term.

Labor's primary and two-party-preferred support have both lifted in the past two weeks, personal satisfaction with Mr Rudd has hit a new high and the Opposition Leader has remained neck and neck with John Howard on leadership.

Labor today faces the first parliamentary sitting day in an election year in its best position in the polls since 2001. Both leaders will address their parliamentary colleagues this morning about the political year ahead and the prospects of winning the election, expected in October or November.

In the past two weeks, as debate has centred on water conservation and drought relief, Labor's primary vote has risen from 44 per cent to 47 per cent and the Coalition's was almost unchanged on 38 per cent.

That is Labor's highest primary vote in Newspoll since the Howard Government was at its lowest ebb in early 2001, after the introduction of the GST and before the September 11 terror attacks.

Voters also appear to be returning to Labor under Mr Rudd, with the percentage of those who are uncommitted dropping from 13 per cent under Mr Beazley to 10 per cent.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted last weekend exclusively for The Australian, the ALP's two-party-preferred result was 56 per cent, compared with the Coalition's 44 per cent. This was the ALP's best two-party result, based on preference flows at the last election, since March 2004.

At the last election in October 2004, under Mr Latham, Labor's two-party-preferred result was 47.2 per cent and the Coalition's was 52.8 per cent.

With a fall in support for both the Nationals and the Greens, from 5 per cent to 3 per cent and from 7 per cent to 5 per cent respectively, it is possible Mr Rudd's recent policies on climate change, nuclear power and drought relief are picking up support from rural areas and city environmentalists.

Labor's primary support has grown dramatically from 39 per cent to 47 per cent since Mr Beazley was replaced as opposition leader in December.

Mr Rudd's personal support has also risen sharply, outpacing Mr Beazley's and proving more durable than Mr Latham's in the contest against Mr Howard as preferred prime minister.

In the latest Newspoll, Mr Rudd's standing as preferred prime minister was unchanged on 39 per cent and Mr Howard's was almost unchanged on 40 per cent.

But Mr Rudd has remained within a couple of percentage points of Mr Howard on the question of who would make the better prime minister since he became Labor leader.

Mr Latham got within a point of Mr Howard as preferred prime minister in March 2004 but then his support fell away.

The last time Mr Beazley became opposition leader he did not get close to Mr Howard and the Prime Minister had a 30-point lead over him in November last year.

Mr Rudd's first polling results put him within three points of Mr Howard - 36 per cent to 39per cent - and he was within one point, essentially equal to Mr Howard, last weekend - 39 per cent to 40 per cent.

Public satisfaction with Mr Rudd's performance also jumped, with a rise from 56 per cent to 60 per cent. Dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd rose from 13 per cent to 15 per cent, which compares with Mr Beazley's 58 per cent in November last year.

Satisfaction with Mr Howard fell from 46 per cent to 44 per cent, the lowest since July last year. Dissatisfaction was almost unchanged at 44 per cent.

Mr Rudd's satisfaction rating of 60 per cent is still not as high as the top results for both Mr Beazley and Mr Latham, but it has risen 19 percentage points, from 41 per cent in mid-December.

The Prime Minister and Mr Rudd have effectively started the election campaign, with intense policy work on climate change and water conservation.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21176317-2,00.html

 

[camsmith]

Yeah i saw lateline too.

No surprise really, Rudd has been in the news with his education jargon... Closer to election time im sure Howard being the smart politician he is will once again use his skills to manufacture a win.

There's a looooong way to go. Personally, im happy to see a close contest. All the action has been happening in the US lately..

 

[CharlieG]

The big one is the preferred prime minister result. In a system where the personal appeal of the leader is all-important (ask nine out of ten voters who they voted for last time and they'll say Latham or Howard before they mention their local member) it shows that a) the electorate does not feel attached to Howard and b) a significant proportion like what they see. With 21% undecided, there's plenty of scope for Rudd to hit the front, too.

A general rule of thumb in my view is that polls tend to overestimate the underlying vote for the Opposition by two to three points - simply because it's easier to say you'll vote for change than to actually do it. Even then, the ALP is sitting on an election-winning lead, perhaps less than nine months from the election.

 

[Dont be a lemon]

Go Labor!

 

[Mr Q]

A general rule of thumb in my view is that polls tend to overestimate the underlying vote for the Opposition by two to three points - simply because it's easier to say you'll vote for change than to actually do it. Even then, the ALP is sitting on an election-winning lead, perhaps less than nine months from the election.

I'm more than inclined to agree with you on that one - if you looked at 5.8%, it's certainly a big enough swing to get Labor across the line, but it wouldn't want to drop much below that. Of course, if it were 8.8%, I'd certainly be reassessing my thoughts on Canning - because I think it will swing more than the national average because it swung unnaturally at the last election.

 

[CharlieG]

I can't help but laugh at the choice facing Howard and Costello. Three months to Budget Night and they've got a choice between pork-barreling their way to a rate hike just before the election, or letting what might be their last chance to get back into the game pass them by.

Karma for the 2004 scare campaign.

 

[DaveW]

The Australian's editorial page interprets this lopsided poll finding as a pointer to an election that will be "close-run indeed".

 

[Mr Q]

The Australian's editorial page interprets this lopsided poll finding as a pointer to an election that will be "close-run indeed".

When you read the whole thing that editorial reads like it was written by John Howard.

(Yes, I know, it's News Ltd)

 

[- PC -]

Yeah i saw lateline too.

No surprise really, Rudd has been in the news with his education jargon... Closer to election time im sure Howard being the smart politician he is will once again use his skills to manufacture a win.

There's a looooong way to go. Personally, im happy to see a close contest. All the action has been happening in the US lately..

Agreed too many stunts still to come

 

[Dry Rot]

Was the poll taken after Howard's big water announcement?

If so, the water stuff didn't get any traction for Howard at all.

 

[CharlieG]

Was the poll taken after Howard's big water announcement?

If so, the water stuff didn't get any traction for Howard at all.

Water announcement came out on the 25th of January. This poll was conducted from the 2nd to the 4th of February. So there was a full week for everyone polled to have heard the policy.

 

[Dry Rot]

Charlie,

What is the swing needed to get rid of Howard?

What is your estimate of the swing to Howard last election purely because of latham?

Is it fair that Rudd can be assumed to have retrieved that?

If so, what is the net swing (taking account of the anti-latham folk returning) required to remove Howard?

 

[Dry Rot]

Thanks for that NB Rudd shaving support off Howard.

Interesting.

I wonder how much of Howard's support is rusted on and how much is flakey waiting for a decent alternative?

If you take out the Menzies/Holt/Gorton/McMahon years of govt, what is the average lifespan of a Fed govt?

There's always some idiots who just reckon it's time to give the other lot a go, and others who just perceive a long serving govt to be tired, which it is.

 

[CharlieG]

Charlie,

What is the swing needed to get rid of Howard?

Uniform it's 3.3% for (probable) minority government and 4.8% for an ALP majority in its own right.

What is your estimate of the swing to Howard last election purely because of latham?

In terms of primary vote hardly anything. The primary vote movements in 2004 were away from the Democrats and One Nation and towards the Coalition, Family First and the Greens. The problem for the ALP was that they were simply by-passed altogether. You could probably attribute that in part to Latham, but I'm not willing to put it solely on his shoulders.

It's worth noting that the 2PP swing was 1.8% which is about half of the primary vote swing to the Coalition. So it's reasonable to suggest that around half of the votes that the Democrats and One Nation Parties lost to the Coalition would have preferenced the ALP first in 2001.

Was Latham responsible for that? Probably in part. If the votes that are changing hands are those that went to minor parties in 2001 it means that the ALP failed over Howard's third term to turn disaffected voters into ALP voters.

Is it fair that Rudd can be assumed to have retrieved that?

It would be fair to say that Rudd's current approval ratings would comfortably retrieve any 'Latham factor'.

If so, what is the net swing (taking account of the anti-latham folk returning) required to remove Howard?

Impossible question.

 

[Brown Bottle]

Did anyone see the Fed Govt advertising its "Anti-Terrorism hotline" on the box last night? First time I've seen the ad since, um....last federal election.

One could deduce that it must be an election year again.

 

[CharlieG]

Thanks for that NB Rudd shaving support off Howard.

Interesting.

I wonder how much of Howard's support is rusted on and how much is flakey waiting for a decent alternative?

If you take out the Menzies/Holt/Gorton/McMahon years of govt, what is the average lifespan of a Fed govt?

There's always some idiots who just reckon it's time to give the other lot a go, and others who just perceive a long serving govt to be tired, which it is.

Sorry - I deleted it when I couldn't get the Newspoll figures to format properly!

But for the benefit of others, what the Newspoll approval ratings for Howard, Latham and Rudd show is a) that Rudd's approval ratings have climbed much faster even than Latham's did during his honeymoon period and b) unlike in 2004, they have been accompanied by a drop in Howard's approval ratings.

That suggests that whereas in 2004 the electorate was interested in Latham but not dismissive of Howard, this time the electorate approves of Rudd at Howard's expense.

 

[Corpuscles]

The old adage that governments lose elections!
IR - (even some in right consider over the top)
Environment ( good lately but reactionary)
Farmers plight ( will lose them heaps of Country Party votes)
Health & Education ( health shocking)
War - (Festering for some time)

I reckon Howard had been aseleep trading on Beasley's "loser factor" for too long. Johnny does not have the appeal he once had, and now change to Costello (or other) is very unlikely to be successful

If Labour can create some credibilty economic management wise they could get over the line.

I think this is a rare case of opposition (ALP) having to show they deserve to win!

What would a mid year major "terrorist" attack on aussie soil do?

 

[Lach72]

It's going to be interesting to watch as Rudd seems very keen to put flesh on the bones of the policies and really give an alternative.
He's also seen as steady, somewhat like Howard, and while the economy is still seen as a win for the coalition i think the last few rates rises have shown people it's not just going to be roses because Johnny is in power.

I also wonder if people are finally giving the government a major thumbs down on their human rights record a-la David Hicks and that 'Serbian' dude they keep trying to send home even though he's been here since he was 18 months old.

 

[Lach72]

The old adage that governments lose elections!
IR
Environment
Health & Education
War

I reckon Howard had been aseleep trading on Beasley's "loser factor" for too long. Johnny does not have the appeal he once had, and now change to Costello (or other) is very unlikely to be successful

If Labour can create some credibilty economic management wise they could get over the line.

I think this is a rare case of opposition (ALP) having to show they deserve to win!

What would a mid year major "terrorist" attack on aussie soil do?

I said to my wife last night, there won't be a Tampa to save Howard this time!

 

[finders]

Even though I dont like Rudd all that much Im also firmly in the ABR (anyone one but the Rodent) camp so an 8% margin is ok at this stage.

I also think Howards age and use by date will play as a factor as he is quite often looking a little doddery of late.
Dont forget base of over 55s are also dropping off the twig and being replaces by the new voters and a lot of them will like the Rudd/Gillard option.

 

[Corpuscles]

I said to my wife last night, there won't be a Tampa to save Howard this time!

And how many times have you apologised to wifey for being wrong?

I have a horrible gut feeling, that our turn will come ( yes in the conspiranut category but... there it is)

 

[- PC -]

And how many times have you apologised to wifey for being wrong?

I have a horrible gut feeling, that our turn will come ( yes in the conspiranut category but... there it is)

Some of us tinfoil hat wearers would suggest the British arrests and the subsequent report of ''150 terror attacks averted'' lends one to think deflection away from Blairs Money For Peers is happening

 

[- PC -]

If you take out the Menzies/Holt/Gorton/McMahon years of govt, what is the average lifespan of a Fed govt?

2 terms is my guess

 

[Pessimistic]

Rudd should highlight that howard only seemd to 'get busy" eg water, childcare - with an election in the offing. An ALP govt would work for the full 3 years of the term not 1 out of 3 like Howard.

Its a strategy which could work even when Howard releases policies - "very good john, now why did we wait 10 years to do this ?"

Its looking like Kimbo should have retired with the "drovers dog' speech not the "lazarus witha bypass" one