Prediction Finals chances

[jackcass]

The club expected to play finals…..been said publicly. At 8-3, it should have been a formality.

18 clubs go into the season with the aim of playing finals... well, maybe not Melbourne this year, but Carlton couldn't see where they'd lose a game...

 

[jackcass]

On Current Form can you see us Beating the Tigers and Swans? I can’t

On our form at 8-3 many couldn't see us losing all 6 of our next games. Form is fickle!

 

[jackcass]

When did he say not winning a flag was a fail?

Not making finals definitely is though.

So it's not about premierships it is about finals. But if making finals isn't a fail... only 2014 is a fail... so why say 4 years in a row? Or are we just going to keep shifting the goal posts until we come up with that unique paradigm that confirms a 4 year fail cycle?

 

[domin8tors]

What are finals?

those are the things we made for a record 9 years running

 

[Bucksboys]

those are the things we made for a record 9 years running

 

[iGNITER]

How so?

I mean I'm very optimistic about the team and preseason predicted 5-12 although admitting 7-12 was the more realistic range. Many posters had us un a similar range. So if there is that acknowledgement preseason that 9-12 is a very realistic prediction then how can finishing there not be good enough?

My post meant we are not good enough to play finals this year.
Going on form over the last few weeks there is no way we will win the last 5 games of the year.

Overall thus far this season we are pretty much exactly where I thought we would be.

 

[domin8tors]

Ok 11 or 12th seems to be consensus. Club goes backwards for the 4th year in a row and 4th under bucks.
Despite a young list what if any changes will be made. I think there are still question marks on the quality of our youth, so the question to ask is are we deluding ourselves about where we might be over next few years?

I assume by backwards you are referring to ladder position ? perhaps we could have kept shaw and Dawes etc but we wouldn't have won another flag so we drafted while players had currency over the last 4 years and personally I'd say we have gone forwards as far as the end result of winning a premiership goes.

 

[northpie]

I assume by backwards you are referring to ladder position ? perhaps we could have kept shaw and Dawes etc but we wouldn't have won another flag so we drafted while players had currency over the last 4 years and personally I'd say we have gone forwards as far as the end result of winning a premiership goes
Dom I can understand your thoughts but just asking the question are they closer to right or wrong because I don't think there is a straight correct answer. currently we have an undeniable weakness in kicking skills in the playing group and especially down back. Heater was our best kick in th eback half and is currently in AA form. I like Adams but we seem to have quite a few of his type in stock. i.e inside players who can't kick. clearly albeit in hindsight this was not a smart trade. Dawes or Jessie ? Personally I am ambivalent.
Aside from those specifics we now have a young team that is led by 2 ageing stars in swanny and Pendles ( he aint that old but getting there) and an erratic kpf who is as close to his career end as swanny given the way kpf age. Where are the elites coming through to take their place . As I said in the opening thread moore and degoey likely but question marks on the rest , so where does this leave us as a club, especially when you compare our lists to WB GWS and GCS( who have their own issues).
I an advocating we need to ask ourselves some hard question sand act accordingly in the offseason. the idea of the thread was to push out what those questions/issues are?
Please don't come with a defensive mindset

 

[northpie]

Well its simple really...our list is not a top 6 list.
It was pretty clearly going into this season that we would probably be in with the mass of teams outside the top 4-6 but still somewhere in the hunt for finals. Of those teams- WCE, WB and Richmond have all suprised, while geelong, north, GC, Ess and Port (who shouldve been top 4) have all done worse than expected. We are probably in the middle of those 2 groups and par for the course for 2015... And have done so while blooding lots of youngsters and not topping up with veterans (like north & ess).

Thats the short term view on this season.
---

As for the long term view of the last few years... Well thats been discussed ad nauseum. My strong belief is that if those hard decisions werent made at the time, our fall from grace wouldve been much steeper and we wouldve had to rebuild almost from scratch after a St Kilda-esque drop.

DRF
I think you make some reasonable points but we are not finishing just outside 4-6 we will probably finish 12th with teams on the up with superior lists above us. I think that is a reasonbable alarm bell for the club to sit up and respond to. yes we look better going fwd than ess and nth, but do you want those clubs as our benchmark? I don't!!!
WB, WCE, GWS and GCS have a better list and outlook than we do ( GCS is clouded mind you), and Hawks, Geel, Swans continue to defy the gravity that we didn't as a club choose to fight. I am concerned that we continue to talk about our future prospects, when as each year has gone by those prosepcts are viewed from a lower position in the competition!!!
Happy for well thoguth out views to the contrary

 

[PieBeast]

I assume by backwards you are referring to ladder position ? perhaps we could have kept shaw and Dawes etc but we wouldn't have won another flag so we drafted while players had currency over the last 4 years and personally I'd say we have gone forwards as far as the end result of winning a premiership goes.

Yep, the worse our current situation becomes the brighter the future...

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

So it's not about premierships it is about finals. But if making finals isn't a fail... only 2014 is a fail... so why say 4 years in a row? Or are we just going to keep shifting the goal posts until we come up with that unique paradigm that confirms a 4 year fail cycle?

Don't look at me, I never said anything about 4 years of failure to begin with. I was just saying that I don't think the original poster meant no premiership equals fail.

 

[domin8tors]

Dom I can understand your thoughts but just asking the question are they closer to right or wrong because I don't think there is a straight correct answer. currently we have an undeniable weakness in kicking skills in the playing group and especially down back. Heater was our best kick in th eback half and is currently in AA form. I like Adams but we seem to have quite a few of his type in stock. i.e inside players who can't kick. clearly albeit in hindsight this was not a smart trade. Dawes or Jessie ? Personally I am ambivalent.
Aside from those specifics we now have a young team that is led by 2 ageing stars in swanny and Pendles ( he aint that old but getting there) and an erratic kpf who is as close to his career end as swanny given the way kpf age. Where are the elites coming through to take their place . As I said in the opening thread moore and degoey likely but question marks on the rest , so where does this leave us as a club, especially when you compare our lists to WB GWS and GCS( who have their own issues).
I an advocating we need to ask ourselves some hard question sand act accordingly in the offseason. the idea of the thread was to push out what those questions/issues are?
Please don't come with a defensive mindset
.

you make some valid points. Swan is a legend of the game " not many view that but that's another story " so he can't be replaced. but with Dagoey and Freeman hopefully one of them stands up and becomes near AA quality. Pendles is getting older but that headache thankfully is still 4 or 5 years away a lot can change between now and then. the Fwd line for mine is a concern Cloke with all is kicking issues is still one of the Best forwards in the comp. Moore is very much an unknown so unfair to judge but we clearly need a Key Forward. kicking efficiency is interesting. in the first half of the year I believe that we were one of the better teams % wise. clearly that has dropped off. personally I would say that if the players were playing simple kick to kick they would hit 10 out of 10. all players can kick. I believe it's the decision making that is causing errant kicks. and decision making / panic can be caused from inexperience. against Melbourne on avg we were almost 1 year younger. so to summarise I do believe that we are on the right track.

 

[DrDavoren]

If we finish around 8-12 should be a pass given this is what we mostly thought going into the year.