Finals Equation

[rgauci]

5 of the following must occur:

Kangaroos: Lose all 4 games + %. Eagles, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs.

Hawthorn: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Brisbane, Port, Bulldogs, Sydney.

Port Adelaide: Lose 3 out of 4 + &. Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle.

West Coast: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Kangaroos, Richmond, Saints, Essendon.

Collingwood: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Richmond, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide.

Sydney: Lose 2 out of 4 plus lots of %. In reality lose 3/4. Saints, Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn.

Brisbane: Lose 2 out of 4. Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong.

Saints: Lose 2 out of 4. Sydney, Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond.

Western Bulldogs: Lose 2 out of 4. Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Kangaroos.

Adelaide: Lose 1 out of 4 plus a big %. In reality 2 losses. Geelong, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood.

Essendon: Lose 1 out of 4. Fremantle, Carlton, Richmond, West Coast.

BTW. This is presuming we win all 4 games, otherwise we are no hope what so ever. So in short its mathematically possible.

 

[Freo Hitman]

I think we forget about finals and concentrate on winning the rest of the games. If we do that and only IF & thats a very large IF .... it either gives us a good base to start of for next season or a chance to do Wests Tigers froma few years back . Either way I dont really think this result should even get us thinking of finals , its not in our hands any more. Its all over

 

[ImperialPurple]

By rgauci

:

1. Kangaroos: Lose all 4 games + %. Eagles, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs.

Won't happen

2. Hawthorn: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Brisbane, Port, Bulldogs, Sydney.

Highly unlikely

3. Port Adelaide: Lose 3 out of 4 + &. Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle.

They'll beat carlton; will lose to geelong... so that leaves a loss to hawks, and we must win. Slight chance (very, very, very slight).

4. West Coast: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Kangaroos, Richmond, Saints, Essendon.

Won't happen.

5. Collingwood: Lose 3 out of 4 + %. Richmond, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide.

Need one of Richmond or melbourne to pull off an upset. Unlikely...

6. Sydney: Lose 2 out of 4 plus lots of %. In reality lose 3/4. Saints, Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn.

mmmmaybe, just maybe....

7. Brisbane: Lose 2 out of 4. Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong.

Possibly

8. Saints: Lose 2 out of 4. Sydney, Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond.

Could well happen. Richmond the only "given" for them.

9. Western Bulldogs: Lose 2 out of 4. Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Kangaroos.

Could well happen - hawks and kangas their biggest challenge and they are faltering...

10. Adelaide: Lose 1 out of 4 plus a big %. In reality 2 losses. Geelong, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood.

Likely IMO.

11. Essendon: Lose 1 out of 4. Fremantle, Carlton, Richmond, West Coast.

We can end it for them this week!

BTW. This is presuming we win all 4 games, otherwise we are no hope what so ever

. Oh crap - that's the hard part...

So in short its mathematically possible.

yep, if we play like today it's possible. Still don't reckon it will happen - there is absolutely no margin for error, and it sucks that we can see that our best is good enough to go deep into September, but we have not done enough before now....

 

[dominguez]

If we beat the bombers and saints I'll consider finals. Until then I won't be looking at the ladder.

 

[Clay Davis]

A nice strong finish to the season will do me.

 

[The Night Shift]

A strong winning finish to the season will do me as well. Play for colours, play for honour, play for the team, play for the new coach, play for your team mates, play for your future, play for the supporters, PLay for Macca, Belly, Parker, Cookie Mnster and all that are retiring this year... Theres enough positives to motivate us through to the end of this bleak season.
I sincerely don't think we will make the finals, not that I wish that, it's just reality..... but I expect no less effort from the lads, and as we did with the weagles we can dent some final 8 runs from other clubs. Thats worth a giggle or two.

 

[rgauci]

Update:

4 of the following must occur:

Kangaroos: Lose all 3 games + %. Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs.

Hawthorn: Lose all 3 games + %. Port, Bulldogs, Sydney.

Port Adelaide: Lose all 3 games + %. Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle.

West Coast: Lose all 3 + %. Richmond, Saints, Essendon.

Collingwood: Lose 2 out of 3 + %. Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide.

Sydney: Lose 2 out of 3 plus lots of %. In reality lose 3/3. Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn.

Brisbane: Lose 1 out of 3. Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong.

Saints: Lose 1 out of 3. Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond.

Western Bulldogs: Lose 1 out of 3. Adelaide, Hawthorn, Kangaroos.

Adelaide: Win their next 3 games by less than we do or lose 1 game. Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood.

BTW. This is presuming we win all 3 games, otherwise we are no hope what so ever. So in short its mathematically possible.

 

[mojon95]

:
We can end it for them this week!

WE CAN BEAT CARLTON AND RICHMOND, AND I BELIEVE WE'LL DO IT FOR SHEEDS AND HIRDY AGAINST WEST COAST, DO THAT AND WE'RE IN THE 8. U HAVE NO IDEA

 

[Rob]

If we win this week, we just about put our destiny in our own hands. Adelaide are the worry. We might need to flog Melbourne by 15 goals.

 

[legitimatic]

WE CAN BEAT CARLTON AND RICHMOND, AND I BELIEVE WE'LL DO IT FOR SHEEDS AND HIRDY AGAINST WEST COAST, DO THAT AND WE'RE IN THE 8. U HAVE NO IDEA

Good post.

Perfect scenario next week is that Collingwood, Brisbane lose, we beat Saints by a fair margin and then Adelaide beat the Dogs by 1 point. We could potentially overtake 4 teams I think.

 

[Kenny_01]

To summarise, we need Brisbane, Adelaide and Bulldogs to lose 1 game each.

Adelaide play both teams.

if Adelaide wins both (both at AAMi), then we need-

Sydney or Melbourne to beat Collingwood
OR
Collingwood to beat Adelaide
OR
Port to get beaten comprehensively by Hawks and Geelong (both away)

 

[Kenny_01]

If we win this week, we just about put our destiny in our own hands. Adelaide are the worry. We might need to flog Melbourne by 15 goals.

Adelaide are not that much of a worry because if they win there next two games, that will eliminate Bullies and Lions and if Collingwood lose either of their next two games, Coll v Adel in rd 22 will be an elimination game.

 

[ImperialPurple]

U HAVE NO IDEA

Good post.

.

great thanks for that legit...

 

[legitimatic]

great thanks for that legit...

Oh come on it was clearly patronising

 

[ImperialPurple]

Originally posted by rgauci
Update:

4 of the following must occur:

Kangaroos: Lose all 3 games + %. Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs.
nah

Hawthorn: Lose all 3 games + %. Port, Bulldogs, Sydney.
nah

Port Adelaide: Lose all 3 games + %. Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle.
sheesh Hawks and Cats are seriously difficult - will it come down to us or them again in Rd 22 ...

West Coast: Lose all 3 + %. Richmond, Saints, Essendon.
nah

Collingwood: Lose 2 out of 3 + %. Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide.
Looking highly possible... That's 1

Sydney: Lose 2 out of 3 plus lots of %. In reality lose 3/3. Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn.
nah

Brisbane: Lose 1 out of 3. Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong.
likely - could lose all 3 That's 2

Saints: Lose 1 out of 3. Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond.
likely (well of course they'll have to lose to us if we are to overtake them) That's 3

Western Bulldogs: Lose 1 out of 3. Adelaide, Hawthorn, Kangaroos.
on current form will lose 3/3 That's 4

Adelaide: Win their next 3 games by less than we do or lose 1 game. Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood.
geez they could win all of them

BTW. This is presuming we win all 3 games, otherwise we are no hope what so ever.
Yep - back to the really hard part...

 

[ImperialPurple]

Oh come on it was clearly patronising

Sorry - forgot the

 

[legitimatic]

I felt it necessarry to indulge/humour him.