Prediction First 6 Games

[ubiquitous226]

Last season I quite enjoyed the breaking each segment of our season into 6 games.

I'm sure there'll be a great round 1 preview, but it's less about each individual game and more around the general expectations.

R1 Geelong Cats (GHMBA) [50/50]
R2 Sydney Swans (Optus) [50/50]
R3 West Coast Eagles (Optus/away) [must win]
R4 Western Bulldogs (Optus) [expect to win]
R5 Richmond (Barossa) [must win]
R6 Melbourne (MCG) [expect to win]

Overall it's an interesting start to the season where I'd be hoping to bank 4 or more wins, although only 2 home games with Gather Round in there too.
Less than 3 wins would be a bit of a disaster, 3 workable but not ideal, 4 a solid base and more than that would be a great start.

What makes it a little tricky is on paper the first 2 games are the hardest, and if we lost them going into an away derby with the debacle that was last year hanging over our heads suddenly there'd be a lot of pressure.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Last season I quite enjoyed the breaking each segment of our season into 6 games.

I'm sure there'll be a great round 1 preview, but it's less about each individual game and more around the general expectations.

R1 Geelong Cats (GHMBA) [50/50]
R2 Sydney Swans (Optus) [50/50]
R3 West Coast Eagles (Optus/away) [must win]
R4 Western Bulldogs (Optus) [expect to win]
R5 Richmond (Barossa) [must win]
R6 Melbourne (MCG) [expect to win]

Overall it's an interesting start to the season where I'd be hoping to bank 4 or more wins, although only 2 home games with Gather Round in there too.
Less than 3 wins would be a bit of a disaster, 3 workable but not ideal, 4 a solid base and more than that would be a great start.

What makes it a little tricky is on paper the first 2 games are the hardest, and if we lost them going into an away derby with the debacle that was last year hanging over our heads suddenly there'd be a lot of pressure.

R1 Geelong Cats (GHMBA) 30/ 70 - Geelong at GHMBA stadium are very tough. The fact they have a game to get warmed up, gives us a disadvantage. I really don't see us winning this one. To win, we should need to smash them in the middle.
R2 Sydney Swans (Optus) 70/30 - I expect us to win this one, especially with Gulden out.
R3 West Coast Eagles (Optus/away) - simply must win. Can not afford to lose this one.
R4 Western Bulldogs (Optus) - Treloar and Bont both out, I would mark this as another must win.
R5 Richmond (Barossa) - they are shit, no excuses not to win this one.
R6 Melbourne (MCG) - Melbourne don't have the forward line to hurt us, we should get this one. Especially if Darcy, Young and co are back.

I think we want a minimum of 4 wins, ideally 5. West Coast should be a 90/10 game but we struggle to beat them when they are home.


Squiggle has us

Geelong 88 - 79 Fremantle

Kardinia Park (Gee)0.59 wins - 0.41 wins

Fremantle 89 - 73 Sydney

Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 wins

West Coast 68 - 99 Fremantle

Perth Stadium (WA)0.20 wins - 0.80 wins

Fremantle 80 - 76 Western Bulldogs

Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 wins

Richmond 62 - 109 Fremantle

Barossa Park (SA)0.09 wins - 0.91 wins

Melbourne 76 - 74 Fremantle

M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 wins


3.66 wins after 6 rounds. (Worth noting that a few sides have injuries, so the odds should move a bit in our favour once the teams come out)

We probably should be at least 3 wins going into Melbourne, so need to win that one.

 

[mike91]

Round 1 - Geelong - lose
Round 2 - Sydney - 50/50, but I'll say lose
Round 3 - WCE - Simply have to win. Win
Round 4 - Bulldogs - With their outs, should win, especially at home. Win
Round 5 - Richmond - Should be a percentage booster, honestly. Win
Round 6 - Melbourne - Starting to think this could be a 50/50 game.

3-3, not bad, bit to work with and could be in the 8
4-2, very good start
2-4, sh*thouse

 

[theGav56]

I think squiggle has nailed it but adding one of Geeeelong or Melbourne would be massive, and possible.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I think squiggle has nailed it but adding one of Geeeelong or Melbourne would be massive, and possible.

It seems a bit too optimistic for us against Sydney I think, but overall it does seem to be on the money.

My expectation is 3-4 wins, but I think we need to be grabbing 4 to set up the season well.

 

[Boppo]

Surely Geelong won't go play in a cyclone so we might meet them without their benefit of an extra hitout.

 

[Mogumber]

Reckon Geelong v Freo is now more a flip of the coin.
Still favour Geelong, but them coming in as first gamers like us, will make it more even

 

[Alfonz]

I see it as ... Loss-Win-Win-Win-Win-50/50

Cats away too tough. Should be able to beat Sydney at home without Gulden and Mills. WC and Richmond are shite. Dogs have some injury concerns to key players, plus it is at home. I think we might be due to get the good Melbourne, rather than what they have dished up against us over the last few years.

 

[pK75]

50:50
W
W
W
W
W
5:1 is the pass mark, losing to Swans at home or Dees at MCG would be disappointing in my opinion.

 

[Spirit Level]

Geelong now have no bobweb blowout this weekend and their last game was last Tuesday.

This advantages us

 

[Andy Brennan]

L/L/L/W/W/W

I bet we underestimate west coast again

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

50:50
W
W
W
W
W
5:1 is the pass mark, losing to Swans at home or Dees at MCG would be disappointing in my opinion.

Jeez, I thought I was being tough coming in saying 4-2 was the pass mark.

5-1 would be fantastic though. 3-3 and I have alarm bells, less than 3 wins and I might join the angry mob.

 

[greatgatsby]

4-2 is a (bare) pass. 5-1 would be nice. You can guess my reaction to anything worse.

 

[pK75]

Jeez, I thought I was being tough coming in saying 4-2 was the pass mark.

5-1 would be fantastic though. 3-3 and I have alarm bells, less than 3 wins and I might join the angry mob.

Honestly think we should win the Geelong game as well, we’ve won our last 2 at their “fortress”. Sydney with a GF hangover will be slow out of the gate again like 2023, 3 games in a row at Optus, Richmond anywhere is a win, Dees at the MCG is like the cats, we’ve won our last 2 against them there.
If we’re talking top 4, these games are all gettable.

 

[Joao]

6-0 LFG!

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Honestly think we should win the Geelong game as well, we’ve won our last 2 at their “fortress”. Sydney with a GF hangover will be slow out of the gate again like 2023, 3 games in a row at Optus, Richmond anywhere is a win, Dees at the MCG is like the cats, we’ve won our last 2 against them there.
If we’re talking top 4, these games are all gettable.

Every game this year is gettable but that's not how sports work. It's still against like 4 teams telling themselves they can win it all and against one team who is playing 1 of their 2 gf's this year.

5-1 to not be disappointed is a very high bar haha

 

[eastfreo75]

6-0 awesome
5-1 good
4-2 pass
3-3 bad
2-4 horrible

 

[Randomizor]

6-0 awesome
5-1 good
4-2 pass
3-3 bad
2-4 horrible

0-2 sack JLo

 

[MadMundy]

I think we have a better chance at beating Geelong than you guys think, we have a good record at Kardinya Park in recent history, we seem to make Geelong our bitches there.

Sydney I feel is the only real toss up, I'm expecting us to win the other games.

 

[fleur]

Win the first one and we’ll win the rest of them

 

[freofandom]

Not to throw a spanner in this great process but Brisbane went 0-3 to start their premiership year in 2024 and lost to 3 non-finalists (including Carlton because they didn't deserve to sneak into finals).

They were 2-5 after 7 rounds. Their wins coming against bottom 6 finishing North Melbourne and Melbourne. They even got spanked by 9 goals against GWS in this period.

Probably a good reminder that your win loss half a dozen rounds in doesn't necessarily reflect where you'll end up by end of season.

tldr; win 5 out of 6 to start the season or you're fired JL

 

[SiempreFreo]

L/L/L/W/W/W

I bet we underestimate west coast again

Speaking of underestimating, I cringe at every mention of Richmond as rubbish and a walkover win for us. The mentions are reaching the first WC Derby 2024 numbers when we were going to thrash them.

There was a thrashing all right....but Freo didn't dish it out.

 

[theGav56]

Speaking of underestimating, I cringe at every mention of Richmond as rubbish and a walkover win for us. The mentions are reaching the first WC Derby 2024 numbers when we were going to thrash them.

There was a thrashing all right....but Freo didn't dish it out.

Awesome. If we can overcome 'the mentions' there's 4 easy wins to be had!

Seriously, we have no excuses, and the mentions doesn't even begin to rate a mention as an excuse. Lose those games and JL is gone and we may as well rebuild because we would be the softest team ever.

 

[SiempreFreo]

Awesome. If we can overcome 'the mentions' there's 4 easy wins to be had!

Seriously, we have no excuses, and the mentions doesn't even begin to rate a mention as an excuse. Lose those games and JL is gone and we may as well rebuild because we would be the softest team ever.

Well, now that you mention it….

 

[Schauermann]

underestimate

This is no reason to loose but a for a new challenge: When our players believe an opposing team is bad, they should prove that and kick the highest score in a quarter ever. Then beat that score in each following quarter...