First nine rounds

[TwiggleyFanClub]

I strongly disagree the club does not know what cost us the final last year, they know exactly what it was and have worked to address it (see massive recruiting thread). And I also disagree that individuals or clubs (collective attitude) should enter any competition thinking they cannot prevail. Belief is more than half the battle. Most players will tell you in fact 90% is mental and given that most players are of roughly the same fitness, size and skill then that makes a lot of sense. Telling a group they are not up to it is only effective as a shock tactic to shake out a temporary complacency but is ineffective in motivating a group over the long term to higher achievement.

I'm not saying that they think they'll lose or should be told that. Not for a second.
More like they should think they have the potential to do it, but not living up to that potential will be regarded as failure and that is entirely in their own hands. Killer instinct.

 

[HBF]

We'd want to beat Richmond, Essendon and probably Collingwood in those first 9 weeks. No reason why we couldn't get close to Hawthorn, who are still without a decent backman, and have no ruckman to speak of. No reason why we couldn't push the Saints either, given that Fev had very little impact when we ran them so close last year.

 

[njac3]

Sorry guys dont want to come in here and give out bad news, but in all relatity your boys will struggle next year.
with the draw as follows, i predict the following:
Richmond (Away - MCG) WIN
Brisbane (Away - Gabba) LOSS
Essendon (Home - MCG) 50/50
Adelaide (Away - AAMI) LOSS
Geelong (Home - MCG) LOSS
Collingwood (Home - MCG) LOSS
St. Kilda (Away - Etihad) LOSS
Port Adelaide (Away - AAMI) 50 /50
Hawthorn (Home - Etihad) LOSS

now the essondon game could go either way, yet without Judd (injurys etc) i would say the bombers would be favourites there. Also with Port being at home i would also say they would go in as favourates.
2010 for the blues will be another 'rebuild' year after taking 100 goals out of your forward line. Not having digs but to aim so high(unrealistic) just makes you further dissapointed, who are you going to knock out of the 8 with Hawthorn strengthing? let alone the 4, with your best forward gone and the draw as above?
Comeon...

 

[blueblood25]

Sorry guys dont want to come in here and give out bad news, but in all relatity your boys will struggle next year.

I'm sure that just killed you?
No one knows how our new structure will work, so predictions don't mean much at this point in time (or ever really..)

 

[zeeCFC]

ahh thanks njac, was looking for the list of first 9 games. Here's how i see it:

Richmond - WIN
Brisbane - WIN (They've had a powerful forward line before when we've beat them 2 out of 3 times, factor in our much stronger midfield aswell)

Essendon - 50/50 (God I hope we win)
Adelaide - LOSS
Geelong - LOSS or 50/50
Collingwood - 50/50
St Kilda - LOSS
Port - WIN
Hawks - 50/50

I can see us getting 5 or even 6 wins

 

[Silvagnis]

Carlton were four and five after the first nine rounds of 2009.

I don't see why we can't achieve a similar result this year.

Carlton beat Collingwood without Fevola troubling the scorers.

We pushed the Saints minus Waite and Fevola dominating.

Since when has a FF who receives the ball, rather than winning it himself (like a CHF) been the key to being a dominant side?

We're not a one man team built around a full forward playing out of the goal square.

Welcome to the 21st century.

I wouldn't go onto another team's board and talk down their chances if Cloke, Anthony, Rusling and Dawes were our tall forwards...

 

[The Blueseum]

We went out in Round 1 last year with 6? first gamers, 3 rookies at least, and spanked the pants off Richmond.

Don't see why we can't do it again.

With the midfield we have, and the game we play, we'll have the pill 400 times a week.

Not pie in the sky to be looking at 6-3, certainly would show we are good enough.

4 AFL debuts and 1 Carlton debut in Johnson:

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-index.php?page=Round+1,+2009

5 all up is pretty impressive.

Could be 3-4 new Blues for Round 1, 2010 as well - Henderson, McLean, Lucas, Davies?

From the Blueseum

 

[njac3]

Yeah but what i was suggesting was that Carlton will struggle due to the following:

Very tough draw to set up the season
Your captin missing for the first 3
Your leading forward no longer there
The pre season issues.

Now, all that other stuff about the re shape of the forward line etc etc, is all pie in the sky, you could out score the dogs or be the lowest scoring team in the comp.

Yet the suggestions above are real. from your preseason i would say you boys are more likely to go backwards than up the ladder.
Just looking at the facts of last presaeson compared to this one as that is all we have to go off. A little objectivity in your replys would be great

 

[mediumsizered]

now the essondon game could go either way, yet without Judd (injurys etc) i would say the bombers would be favourites there. Also with Port being at home i would also say they would go in as favourates.
2010 for the blues will be another 'rebuild' year after taking 100 goals out of your forward line. Not having digs but to aim so high(unrealistic) just makes you further dissapointed, who are you going to knock out of the 8 with Hawthorn strengthing? let alone the 4, with your best forward gone and the draw as above?
Comeon...

Why would Essendon start favourites when they have lost 3 of their Top 4 goalkickers from 2009 (4 out of Top 7 if you include McPhee), including Lloyd who kicked 5 goals (his one day out for the season) in Essendon's 3 point win against us in Round 3? In that same game, Lucas kicked 2 goals & Lovett was their second highest possession winner. Later in the season, when Essendon comfortably beat us, Lloyd, Lucas & Lovett shared 10 of Essendon's goals, with Lovett's pace tearing us apart in the second half.

Port at home has not been a problem for us over the last 2 seasons, with Kreuzer getting us over the line in 2008 & Murphy being B.O.G. in our 54 point win at AAMI Stadium in 2009 (we even pushed them to 4 goals in 2007 when they were on their way to a GF berth & we were finishing 15th).

I'm also not sure why Hawthorn are definitely going to strengthen when their backline will continue to have big holes in it & their ruck division has been decimated by injury & retirement & their big-name recruit, Burgoyne, has not yet been able to participate in full pre-season training, on the back of an injury interrupted 2009 season.

What we have in our favour is the continued improvement that comes with having a young list (a list which includes 3 x #1 draft picks), with many of the players now getting into the 50-100 game bracket, when their form becomes more consistent. Our playing list, even with the huge loss of Fev, is overall a stronger list than we have had for the last decade. On the basis of depth of talent, I would rate our list better than the list we had 1999-2001, when we previously played finals.

 

[magpie_militia]

Way too early to call confidently at the moment, here is my prediction nonetheless:

Richmond (Away - MCG) - WIN
Brisbane (Away - Gabba) - LOSS
Essendon (Home - MCG) - WIN
Adelaide (Away - AAMI) - LOSS
Geelong (Home - MCG) - LOSS
Collingwood (Home - MCG) - LOSS
St. Kilda (Away - Etihad) - LOSS
Port Adelaide (Away - AAMI) - WIN
Hawthorn (Home - Etihad) - LOSS

So, 3-6 for me.

 

[Malifice]

Richmond (Away - MCG) WIN
Brisbane (Away - Gabba) WIN
Essendon (Home - MCG) WIN
Adelaide (Away - AAMI) LOSS
Geelong (Home - MCG) LOSS
Collingwood (Home - MCG) WIN
St. Kilda (Away - Etihad) LOSS
Port Adelaide (Away - AAMI) WIN
Hawthorn (Home - Etihad) LOSS

Thats my prediction.

Richmond is a lock for a percentage boosting win.

The intresting games will be the Collingwood, Brisbane and Essendon games. We're due a win against the Dons, and we owe the Lions for last year.

The Collingwood games always seem to be 50/50 regardless of where the teams sit on the ladder. Judd will be well and truly back by then and I reckon the boys will be stinging for a win after tough games vs the Cats and the Crows in the preceeding weeks.

Also, call me an optimist, but I dont see any reason why we couldnt win a few more. We've shown we can take it to Geelong, the Saints and the Hawks (all teams I have pencilled in as a Loss).

The toughest game there seems to be the Adelaide game IMO.

FWIW theyre my smokies for the flag next year.

 

[mediumsizered]

The Collingwood games always seem to be 50/50 regardless of where the teams sit on the ladder. Judd will be well and truly back by then and I reckon the boys will be stinging for a win after tough games vs the Cats and the Crows in the preceeding weeks.

Also, call me an optimist, but I dont see any reason why we couldnt win a few more. We've shown we can take it to Geelong, the Saints and the Hawks (all teams I have pencilled in as a Loss).
The toughest game there seems to be the Adelaide game IMO.

FWIW theyre my smokies for the flag next year.

I am confident we will get at least one win out of the 3 games against Geelong, St Kilda & Hawthorn. Which team we will beat I am not sure.

The Collingwood game is very winnable, as long as we play a disciplined game & ensure we dominate the contested ball (as we should) & move the ball quickly into our forward line. Presti won't be as big a factor in Collingwood's defence as the player he goes to won't necessarily be a dominant forward. We need to make sure we pick a relatively quick team to exploit their lack of pace through the midfield (made even slower by the recruitment of 'The Plod' Luke Ball).

 

[HBF]

I am confident we will get at least one win out of the 3 games against Geelong, St Kilda & Hawthorn. Which team we will beat I am not sure.

Very unlucky not to get Hawthorn last year, and we really did push St.Kilda after we coughed up the 1st 5 goals of the game, Fev had very little impact, and Judd was less effective after he sustained that broken nose.

We did beat Geelong, but they were minus Scarlett and Taylor, and Stevie J wasn't close to being fit.

As I said, if we are up and running early, there is no reason why we couldn't be competitive in all 9 matches, perhaps pinching 4 or 5 of these games.

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

Sorry guys dont want to come in here and give out bad news, but in all relatity your boys will struggle next year.
with the draw as follows, i predict the following:
Richmond (Away - MCG) WIN
Brisbane (Away - Gabba) LOSS
Essendon (Home - MCG) 50/50
Adelaide (Away - AAMI) LOSS
Geelong (Home - MCG) LOSS

Pretty accurate analysis. There are very strong arguments both for and against why we can make the 8.
Intuitively, therefore, you would think we will be one of the teams fighting for the 8.

Personally, Njac, I think our squad is stronger than Essendon's at this current time. And with Hawthorn as the main improvers next year, that leaves one spot open, assuming Essendon drop out.

Hopefully their spot is ours.

 

[BlueYoss]

We'd want to beat Richmond, Essendon and probably Collingwood in those first 9 weeks. No reason why we couldn't get close to Hawthorn, who are still without a decent backman, and have no ruckman to speak of. No reason why we couldn't push the Saints either, given that Fev had very little impact when we ran them so close last year.

What about our bitches Port Adelaide?

We did beat Geelong, but they were minus Scarlett and Taylor, and Stevie J wasn't close to being fit.

Getting an early start to the JR bashing?

 

[Ytoojae]

I have us something like 3 and 6 at the start but storming home to win 10 of our last 13 games.

Very reasonable, I would expect.

 

[HBF]

What about our bitches Port Adelaide?

Getting an early start to the JR bashing?

Very true BY. We should account for Port at AAMI. My bad.
JR did what he had to do that night, and I thought he did a good job on Johnson. But Johnson clearly wasn't 100% - he could barely pick the ball up off the ground.

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

Very true BY. We should account for Port at AAMI. My bad.
JR did what he had to do that night, and I thought he did a good job on Johnson. But Johnson clearly wasn't 100% - he could barely pick the ball up off the ground.

I disagree with this.

SJ had chances to have kicked 2 or 3, or at least have that many assists, but Russ backed him into a corner, made him play for himself, and really threw him off mentally.

If he kicked 2, we would've said he was a good inclusion for the Cats. He didn't because JR shut him down. Fit or not, he had obvious chances to contribute and wasn't able to.

 

[Lawnchair]

Sorry guys dont want to come in here and give out bad news, but in all relatity your boys will struggle next year.
with the draw as follows, i predict the following:
Richmond (Away - MCG) WIN
Brisbane (Away - Gabba) LOSS
Essendon (Home - MCG) 50/50
Adelaide (Away - AAMI) LOSS
Geelong (Home - MCG) LOSS
Collingwood (Home - MCG) LOSS
St. Kilda (Away - Etihad) LOSS
Port Adelaide (Away - AAMI) 50 /50
Hawthorn (Home - Etihad) LOSS

There is no reason we can't beat Geelong, Brisbane, Port and Collingwood.

Collingwood managed to finish strong for the year despite having a purely average forward line and a borderline decent midfield. The pies strength is and always has been that the team is balanced so there are no glaring weaknesses. That's how collingwood has maintained a brilliant WL ratio throughout its life, but has fairly few flags in comparison.

Geelongs forward line is rubbish (I can kick a dirt clog further and with more accuracy that mooney), but their midfield and defence are brilliant.

Brisbane has 2 great forwards and an okay midfield. If our backline isn't missing any members, they'll pose no threat.

Port Adelaide has Cloke. I'm predicting a 79 point win for us.

I'd imagine us going 3/6 or 4/5 in our first 9 games.

 

[ESKIE]

Yeah but what i was suggesting was that Carlton will struggle due to the following:

Very tough draw to set up the season
Your captin missing for the first 3
Your leading forward no longer there
The pre season issues.

Now, all that other stuff about the re shape of the forward line etc etc, is all pie in the sky, you could out score the dogs or be the lowest scoring team in the comp.

Yet the suggestions above are real. from your preseason i would say you boys are more likely to go backwards than up the ladder.
Just looking at the facts of last presaeson compared to this one as that is all we have to go off. A little objectivity in your replys would be great

You;ll need to factor in the all round improvement from our young guns ie: Gibbs, Kruezuer, Murphy, Robinson and our recruiting, McLean, Henderson, Lucas etc.

You are definitely under estimating us, but that;s okay, we'll surprise I believe.

 

[ESKIE]

Why would Essendon start favourites when they have lost 3 of their Top 4 goalkickers from 2009 (4 out of Top 7 if you include McPhee), including Lloyd who kicked 5 goals (his one day out for the season) in Essendon's 3 point win against us in Round 3? In that same game, Lucas kicked 2 goals & Lovett was their second highest possession winner. Later in the season, when Essendon comfortably beat us, Lloyd, Lucas & Lovett shared 10 of Essendon's goals, with Lovett's pace tearing us apart in the second half.

Port at home has not been a problem for us over the last 2 seasons, with Kreuzer getting us over the line in 2008 & Murphy being B.O.G. in our 54 point win at AAMI Stadium in 2009 (we even pushed them to 4 goals in 2007 when they were on their way to a GF berth & we were finishing 15th).

I'm also not sure why Hawthorn are definitely going to strengthen when their backline will continue to have big holes in it & their ruck division has been decimated by injury & retirement & their big-name recruit, Burgoyne, has not yet been able to participate in full pre-season training, on the back of an injury interrupted 2009 season.

What we have in our favour is the continued improvement that comes with having a young list (a list which includes 3 x #1 draft picks), with many of the players now getting into the 50-100 game bracket, when their form becomes more consistent. Our playing list, even with the huge loss of Fev, is overall a stronger list than we have had for the last decade. On the basis of depth of talent, I would rate our list better than the list we had 1999-2001, when we previously played finals.

Yes, this is what I was saying ^

 

[Robbo's my hero]

Don't you love the negativity that this thread has encouraged including a couple of Collingwood tipsters adding their expert comments.

I'd like to see what the Collingwood boys think about their own draw which looks as tough as Carlton's draw.

R1/Western Bulldogs
R2/Melbourne
R3/St Kilda
R4/Hawthorn
R5/Essendon
R6/Carlton
R7/North Melbourne
R8/Freemantle [interstate]
R9/Geelong

The next two rounds Brisbane at the Gabba and Western Bulldogs.

As for the Carlton supporters talking down our chances - shame on you. I've gone to the footy and listened to you lot complain for years. So it's not surprising you like to have a whinge on here as well.

 

[HBF]

I disagree with this.

SJ had chances to have kicked 2 or 3, or at least have that many assists, but Russ backed him into a corner, made him play for himself, and really threw him off mentally.

If he kicked 2, we would've said he was a good inclusion for the Cats. He didn't because JR shut him down. Fit or not, he had obvious chances to contribute and wasn't able to.

Did I not say that JR did a good job on Johnson?
My point being, is that Stevie J is one of the toughest blokes to match up on in the AFL, and had he been up and going, JR would have had a very tough time that night.

 

[HBF]

Don't you love the negativity that this thread has encouraged including a couple of Collingwood tipsters adding their expert comments.

I'd like to see what the Collingwood boys think about their own draw which looks as tough as Carlton's draw.

About time I would have thought. They've been given very favourable draws in the past, and this doesn't include playing 18 games at the 'G. They have rarely played the top teams twice in a season, meaning that are almost handed a top 6 spot by the AFL.

 

[blueman91]

I'm sick of these opposition supporters coming in and basically without saying they are slagging us off. They all seem to be talking as essendon are better and will make the 8 at our expense. Lloyd gone, lucas gone, mcphee, lovett gone, fletcher an old man in footy terms and an unsettled squad due to in house problems as we are led to believe. Lloyd staged and sucked in umps all the time, lovett always killed us and he was the standout who did that all the time. They will be bottom four you would say unless some other teams are even worse. The teams we play in the first nine weeks we performed admirably against and beat most of them or pushed them to a kick or so and some are dropping a bit...your cats, collingwood (nothing special anyway), and port we can beat(cant improve a list significantly in one year-but i'm sure cam cloke will rip us a beauty). Come on, get real everyone, i can understand some of your talk but you basically sound as if you are labelling us a bottom four club now. If egos dont get in the way we will have a better season than last because our team is better, fitter, stronger, more matured despite losing some class up top which we can deal with eventually( by the way he's 29)