For the seriously optimistic - we are not dead yet!

[Dangarman]

By my reckoning, there is only one combination of 10 critical matches that will put us in the finals, assuming the percentage gap to Syd or Carlton is unbridgeable. Rough percentage chances on each result quoted also

R20 -
Crows d Bris (75%)
Mel d Haw (50%)
StK d Nth (80%)

R21 -
Crows d Cwd (10%)
Port d Mel (20%)
Freo d Haw (in Tassie, 30%)
WC d Nth (in Subi, 30%)

R22
Crows d StK (20%)
Nth d Mel (30%)
CWD d Haw (60%)

Any one of those matches goes the other way we are out the 8.

Given those percentages, we are approximately a one in 50,000 chance to play finals......

 

[fourtheye]

Not even worth thinking about. We don't deserve to play finals this year.

 

[VSTone]

nice try Dangarman... neil and co. killed finals off three weeks ago against port with their disrespect for form...

 

[Sir Vlado]

I'm usually very optimistic but in this case just give up on it already.

 

[PCORF]

Not optimistic about this weekend against Brisbane, worried that we will come out scared and shaky and blow another halftime lead. We'll put up a good effort against Collingwood but lose by around 30. We might beat St Kilda if they have an ugly day. 9-13 probably our best record possible, but more like 8-14. If we go 7-15 it will be our worst record ever.

 

[Vader]

The Crows seem to think that they're dead in the water. I've just received an email from the club informing me that the Club Champion dinner has been brought forward to Friday 3rd September.

It's fair to surmise that they're not planning on the team continuing to play in September!

 

[fryingpan]

Unbelievably still mathematically possible but too many games have to fall our way and given we have had horrid luck for the past 6 years I can't see us getting a huge bundle of luck in 3 weeks. 99% chance of no September action.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The Crows seem to think that they're dead in the water. I've just received an email from the club informing me that the Club Champion dinner has been brought forward to Friday 3rd September.

It's fair to surmise that they're not planning on the team continuing to play in September!

Yeah found that fairly interesting.

 

[MarcusP2]

Yeah found that fairly interesting.

I'll be looking out for this to be mentioned in Rucci's column shortly.

 

[PCORF]

This is how I see it.

R20 -
Crows d Bris (50%)
Mel d Haw (50%)
StK d Nth (70%)

R21 -
Crows d Cwd (30%)
Port d Mel (75%)
Freo d Haw (in Tassie, 20%)
WC d Nth (in Subi, 40%)

R22
Crows d StK (50%)
Nth d Mel (50%)
CWD d Haw (100%)

 

[Schulzycrow]

We were dead already before the season began. Injuries and half cooked "stars" stuffed us...anyway that has well and truely been established.

Dangarman I was with you up to the Port game. When we shat that one, with what we served up it was season over.

Even by some miracle we stumbled into 8th it would be straight sets see you later. Start thinking about 2011. I just hope we learn from 2010 and use it in 2011.

 

[TheCerealKillee]

always good to be optimistic

 

[Dangercles]

I don't want to make the finals, we don't deserve to make the finals. I just want this shit season to end already!

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

The Crows seem to think that they're dead in the water. I've just received an email from the club informing me that the Club Champion dinner has been brought forward to Friday 3rd September.

It's fair to surmise that they're not planning on the team continuing to play in September!

Hmm, seems like I was on the money.

Phil Harper: There’s also the traditional club champion night… first Friday in October.

Neil Craig: What about it?

Phil Harper: We’re wondering if we can bring it forward a month.

Stephen Trigg: It makes sense, Neil. The players will be on holidays in October most likely and it will be almost six weeks since our last game. Most people would have forgotten about the season by then… hopefully.

David Burtenshaw: Channel 9 won’t cover it in October either and apparently all the media have said they’d rather focus on the Redbacks first Shield game-

Neil Craig: The Redbacks? Jesus Christ.

 

[SebastianVettel]

At least we've been saved another gut-wrenching finals cluster****.

Can happen to some other poor suckers this year for a change.

I'm sure we'll be back on track next year and flying all the way to more Preliminary final misery.

 

[exit]

At least we've been saved another gut-wrenching finals cluster****.

Can happen to some other poor suckers this year for a change.

I'm sure we'll be back on track next year and flying all the way to more Preliminary final misery.

True. In some ways it will be a relief to watch the finals without the stress of another cruel heartbreaking loss.

 

[cmndstab]

Now let's work out the conditional probability of winning the grand final if we actually get into the finals

 

[exit]

Now let's work out the conditional probability of winning the grand final if we actually get into the finals

Not even Blighty could conjure this miracle.

 

[Mismatched]

Now let's work out the conditional probability of winning the grand final if we actually get into the finals

Actually, I think winning the Grand Final would be the easy part

 

[Dangarman]

This is how I see it.

R20 -
Crows d Bris (50%)
Mel d Haw (50%)
StK d Nth (70%)

R21 -
Crows d Cwd (30%)
Port d Mel (75%)
Freo d Haw (in Tassie, 20%)
WC d Nth (in Subi, 40%)

R22
Crows d StK (50%)
Nth d Mel (50%)
CWD d Haw (100%)

And I thought I was optimistic!

These figures give us a 1 in 1270 chance!

As for the probability of winning the big one, too hard.

I put this up mainly as a joke.

I agree, I want the season to end.

Some depressing stats - 2004 was the only other season where we spent all year outside the top 8. If we don't average 69 points over the last 3 games, it will be our lowest scoring season on record. And unless we average 111 points, it will still be the second lowest. Unless we average 113 to beat the 2007 total, it will still be our worst in the last 16 seasons.
And as already pointed out, we have never won less than 8 games in a season.

But to put a good spin on it, 3 times in our short history we have gone from bottom 8 to top 4 the following year...

1992 - finished 9th. Lost to Ess in the '93 prelim, after squandering a 7 goal lead
1996 - finished 12th. And we all know the '97 result.
2004 - finished 12th. Lost to WC in the '05 prelim.

 

[birdmanptr]

I'll be looking out for this to be mentioned in Rucci's column shortly.

His roast will be 2 pages this week

 

[birdmanptr]

In response to the title we aint dead

But family and close friends are driving to the hospital

 

[Macjoe]

In response to the title we aint dead

But family and close friends are driving to the hospital

LOL

We're not dead yet!

Now let's work out the conditional probability of winning the grand final if we actually get into the finals

If we were to get there (WON'T, NO WAY & BUCKLEY'S) we would have beaten all 4 finalist's we meet since beating Freo in rd 11, so would be 50/50 to beat them again.

Elim v Freo 50%
Semi v Dogs 50%
Prelim v Cats 50%
GF v Pies 50%

So if we were to get there, 1 in 20 chance of finishing on top! (...or is that 1 in 5? )

Oh yeah, that's gonna happen.

 

[ruscy002]

At least we've been saved another gut-wrenching finals cluster****.

BUMPITY BUMP!!!

Hawks won, we're well and truly safe from said finals cluster****...not unless some desperado out there wants to review the laws of the game to find out what would have to happen for one of the top eight teams to be stripped of all of their points...