Forecasting the 2010 top 8

[sainter35]

We won 3 quarters in our other game against St K. They were on the back foot.

What we need is for our senior players - McVeigh & Hille, Welsh - to perform at the same time as our younger blokes.

you guys lack pace if only you had a Lovett type to take the Saints on...

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Why does everyone think that Geelong have peaked? They only really lost Harley this year, who was a shadow of his former self and most of their guns are still in the prime of their careers. Unless the Bulldogs, Crows or Lions improve, the Cats should win it again next year, all things being equal.

 

[AG]

Why does everyone think that Geelong have peaked? They only really lost Harley this year, who was a shadow of his former self and most of their guns are still in the prime of their careers. Unless the Bulldogs, Crows or Lions improve, the Cats should win it again next year, all things being equal.

Scarlett, Ottens and Mooney are near the end of their careers and are extremely important for the team structure. If any of them start to fade away then the Cats will start to struggle slightly. They will still be a good team but not a top 4 certainty.

 

[Wally Carter]

exactly, maybe in 2 years the dees will be right up there

The usual formula seems to be:

2-3 years to make the finals.

2-3 years of getting smashed up in finals to harden up.

I can't see them realistically being a flag contender until around 2014 onwards, if everything goes to plan.

 

[cynical]

Scarlett, Ottens and Mooney are near the end of their careers and are extremely important for the team structure. If any of them start to fade away then the Cats will start to struggle slightly. They will still be a good team but not a top 4 certainty.

Ottens was barely in the side last year. Scarlett is aging but we have Mackie and Taylor as decent replacements.

Hawkins is a Mooney replacement.

Only thing that really matters in the AFL is the midfield, you can cover other areas.

Ling looked a bit slow last year which is a worry and Corey is aging a bit. But Varcoe, Hogan and Byrnes are ready made replacements.

I think geelong should be good until 2012 (depending on if ablett stays or not).

 

[AG]

Ottens was barely in the side last year.

You don't have Mumford anymore as a decent backup, so the loss of Ottens will have a bigger impact.

Scarlett is aging but we have Mackie and Taylor as decent replacements.

They aren't replacements. Taylor is your CHB and Mackie will never be a key position player. His natural game is to rebound through the midfield.

Hawkins is a Mooney replacement.

Again, not a replacement. Mooney is more mobile and plays the CHF role well enough for Geelong to be a threat. Hawkins is going to be an old school FF due to his bulk. Mooney is no superstar but his importance to structure is massive.

Only thing that really matters in the AFL is the midfield, you can cover other areas.

I'd say it's the defence that matters, midfield second and forward line third.

Geelong still have a huge amount of talent across the board but they will probably be a standard top 4 side next year as opposed to a top 2 powerhouse.

 

[aflratings]

Are West Coast a legitimate chance for the top 8?

Will Geelong be in the top 4 again?

Why are Hawthorn most people's rebound team of 2010?

Are the Western Bulldogs vulnerable in 2010 with any sort bad injury run?

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Are West Coast a legitimate chance for the top 8?

Yes, but a few things need to go right for that to happen. First and foremost, Cox must stay on the park. If he misses more than 6 weeks or so of football then they wont make the 8. To a lesser extent Masten and Swift need to at least maintain, and possibly improve their late season form of 2009. At the moment a large chunk of the attention is on Kerr and he can get frustrated easily, this can obviously benefit their other mids but I still think Kerr in space > any other West Coast midfielder in space.

Will Geelong be in the top 4 again?

It's hard to imagine how they'd drop far enough to not make the top 4. Ablett, Bartell, Selwood and Ling are still the cornerstone of their success and if they're fit then Geelong is a shoe in for the top 4.

Why are Hawthorn most people's rebound team of 2010?

I think most people just can't see how the 2008 premiers can go from being so good to being out of the finals two years running. They'll need a better run with injuries but I also think 2009 would have been a huge shock to the system and will spur them on to make amends next season. Whether that means a GF, top 4 or just a finals appearance is anyone's guess.

Are the Western Bulldogs vulnerable in 2010 with any sort bad injury run?

Any team is, but if the Bulldogs lose any tall timber I'd imagine it'd affect their chances dramatically. If a Minson or Hall goes down early they'll struggle to be a serious contender in september imo.

 

[Smyth94]

you guys lack pace if only you had a Lovett type to take the Saints on...

WTF? We're the fastest team in the league - what are you on about?

 

[Smyth94]

What is it with Essendon Supporters thinking they are on the up. You made the finals last year because nobody wanted 8th. Oh Thats right you beat St kilda. If you played that game over 10 times essendon wouldnt win again.

They are a average team. They need to go back down the ladder and rebuild. They along with carlton will be heads of the bottom 8.

How about you take a look at our record vs top 8 teams - it was a lot better the same of the other finalists.

Our problem was we dropped games against dud sides...oh and I wish we had an injury run like the Dogs in '09 - that would be f**** fantastic

Almost every single position in our best 26 is filled with a player who has scope for improvement - thats why we're on the up.

 

[Smyth94]

Challenge for the flag? I doubt it. It all starts in the midfield and who are their midfield stars or potential stars? Jobe Watson maybe and that's it. They're stuck mid-table for the foreseeable future.

Jason Winderlich is a nobody eh? Heard of him? Had no pre-season and averaged 19-20 touches, kicked 17 goals in '09

Brent Stanton, despite what many people believe is a very, very good player, averages over 20 touches and kicked 16-17 goals in '09

There's also this Prismall bloke, he goes okay too.

Paddy Ryder - never heard of him.

Bombers' midfield is very solid, its actually our strength (who can believe it!)

 

[MF]

WTF? We're the fastest team in the league - what are you on about?

Given the events of the past week I think his Lovett comment has already backfired enough without needing to retort.

 

[King Patty]

Missing lovett will be covered by the debut of Long and colyer and possibly dempsey being moved into the midfield, plus injury free seasons from davey and winderlich fingers crossed. And hopefully Jetta will have a bigger impact this year as well.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

To stay on topic my top 8 will be:

St Kilda
Bulldogs
Geelong
Hawks
Adelaide
Brisbane
Collingwood
West Coast

That's my top 8 as well, with a shuffling of the order, slightly.

 

[cosby]

Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks
Geelong
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Brisbane
West Coast

I expect West Coast to hold 8th spot.

Adelaide to keep on improving from 2009.
Hawthorn to return to form.
Collingwood to improve slightly on 2009.
Geelong to stay thereabouts.

 

[Geelong63]

The usual formula seems to be:

2-3 years to make the finals.

2-3 years of getting smashed up in finals to harden up.

I can't see them realistically being a flag contender until around 2014 onwards, if everything goes to plan.

That would see the Roo's window of opportunity opening sometime in 2017 or so.

 

[Fadge]

Pies
Cats
Hawks
Saints
Dogs
Lions
Crows
Eagles

Top 5 to all have 15 to 16 wins with percentage being very important in 2010. Daylight between 5th and 6th, with the Dogs very unlucky to miss out on the double chance.

 

[The Donners]

1. Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Collingwood
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Essendon
6. Brisbane
7. Hawthorn
8. St. Kilda

Adelaide to rule the home and away season with fast play and a versatile forward line, Collingwood and Geelong to dominate the finals. Collingwood with their grinding type football and big game young players, mixed with great experience, could be the real outside smoky now they have a genuine big man, only if Ball winds the clock back will he have any impact in Collingwood's premiership chances. Lack a little polish and under pressure is found out, in Malthouse's last season there might be 1 last crack at the premiership for possibly some time. Geelong will once again play in the last day in September, it is a real toss up between Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs for the other Grand Final position.

Essendon's young players to come back close to physically mature and also the return of their no. 1 ruckman will see steady improvement but won't be ready to be top 4 quality. Both Brisbane and St. Kilda could finish top 4, I have gone on the premise that Brisbane's forward line won't function and Black won't be as influential as he has been for so many years. St. Kilda will still be hurting from 2009, to go so far and to fail so closely, could make them stronger or could push them out of the 8. I think with the loss of Carlton's dual Coleman Medalist, it will take 1-2 years for Henderson to build up his body to AFL standard let alone begin to be the no. 1 forward target and I fear they may struggle to kick goals. They'll be relying on small forwards ala the Western Bulldogs but nowhere near their experience or capabilities, yet. Hawthorn will be the team to make the final 8 but only if Burgoyne can return to 2006 form. West Coast will definitely be fighting for the last finals position, perhaps at the expense of St. Kilda.

 

[getout]

1. Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Collingwood
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Essendon
6. Brisbane
7. Hawthorn
8. St. Kilda

Adelaide to rule the home and away season with fast play and a versatile forward line, Collingwood and Geelong to dominate the finals. Collingwood with their grinding type football and big game young players, mixed with great experience, could be the real outside smoky now they have a genuine big man, only if Ball winds the clock back will he have any impact in Collingwood's premiership chances. Lack a little polish and under pressure is found out, in Malthouse's last season there might be 1 last crack at the premiership for possibly some time. Geelong will once again play in the last day in September, it is a real toss up between Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs for the other Grand Final position.

Essendon's young players to come back close to physically mature and also the return of their no. 1 ruckman will see steady improvement but won't be ready to be top 4 quality. Both Brisbane and St. Kilda could finish top 4, I have gone on the premise that Brisbane's forward line won't function and Black won't be as influential as he has been for so many years. St. Kilda will still be hurting from 2009, to go so far and to fail so closely, could make them stronger or could push them out of the 8. I think with the loss of Carlton's dual Coleman Medalist, it will take 1-2 years for Henderson to build up his body to AFL standard let alone begin to be the no. 1 forward target and I fear they may struggle to kick goals. They'll be relying on small forwards ala the Western Bulldogs but nowhere near their experience or capabilities, yet. Hawthorn will be the team to make the final 8 but only if Burgoyne can return to 2006 form. West Coast will definitely be fighting for the last finals position, perhaps at the expense of St. Kilda.

So you've got Essendon finishing above Brisbane, Hawthorn and St Kilda?
That tells us all what coloured glasses you wear if you think Essendon will out-perform all 3 of those teams in 2010.

However, I think the best part of your post is where you've critiqued Carlton for having a young forward and not being able to kick enough goals, when I bet you've been talking about what Gumbleton and Neagle are going to do in 2010. Who's going to kick Essendons goals? Williams?
Carlton also have a superior midfield that kicks goals, as opposed to Essendons midfield which would be behind every other team you've listed in your predicted 8, plus Carlton.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Geelong
Adelaide
St Kilda
WB
Hawthorn
Brisbane
Collingwood
West Coast

 

[aflratings]

Will the Blues overcome the loss of Fev and the perceived step backwards from trading a top goal kicker from their team? Back to Back Finals series must be a huge question mark.

The Magpies have had a solid trading and draft period, but this does not automatically guarantee anything. Collingwood's draw is not that easy compared to recent seasons. Collingwood has certainly done an apprenticeship in the Finals of recent years, they could be due to break a 20 year Premiership drought.


Adelaide are on the verge of a Premiership, Neil Craig is a gem of a coach and very underestimated amongst the majority of AFL fans. Look for the Crows to dominate at AAMI Stadium and win their fare share when travelling, top spot looks a real chance in 2010.

Most will look at the Lions early to see if the Brown/Fevola mix will work. Could both kick 100 goals in the same team? Imagine if Bradshaw was still a Lion, playing Brisbane would have been a nightmare. Brisbane will likely make the Finals unless ravaged by injuries.

 

[Smyth94]

So you've got Essendon finishing above Brisbane, Hawthorn and St Kilda?
That tells us all what coloured glasses you wear if you think Essendon will out-perform all 3 of those teams in 2010.

However, I think the best part of your post is where you've critiqued Carlton for having a young forward and not being able to kick enough goals, when I bet you've been talking about what Gumbleton and Neagle are going to do in 2010. Who's going to kick Essendons goals? Williams?
Carlton also have a superior midfield that kicks goals, as opposed to Essendons midfield which would be behind every other team you've listed in your predicted 8, plus Carlton.

Yeah that's right Williams and Ryder, Hille, Hurley, Gumbleton, Neagle, Reimers, Monfries - there are options

Winderlich is capable of kicking 20 goals, so is Stanton - they both were around that mark in 2009.

Neagle averages more goals per game than any recognised Carlton tall forward

 

[The Donners]

So you've got Essendon finishing above Brisbane, Hawthorn and St Kilda?
That tells us all what coloured glasses you wear if you think Essendon will out-perform all 3 of those teams in 2010.

I gave my reasons. I also said Brisbane and St. Kilda could make the top 4. Essendon finished above Hawthorn in 2009, how does that tell you what coloured glasses I wear? We beat more top 4 sides than Brisbane and Adelaide and you would expect a young team to naturally evolve with another pre-season under their belts i.e. Pears putting on 5kg of muscle.

However, I think the best part of your post is where you've critiqued Carlton for having a young forward and not being able to kick enough goals, when I bet you've been talking about what Gumbleton and Neagle are going to do in 2010. Who's going to kick Essendons goals? Williams?
Carlton also have a superior midfield that kicks goals, as opposed to Essendons midfield which would be behind every other team you've listed in your predicted 8, plus Carlton.

Williams, Monfries, Hurley, Davey, Neagle and Hille/Ryder v Betts, Henderson, Garlett, Yarran, Fisher and Waite.

Hille/Ryder v Warnock/Kreuzer

Fletcher, Pears, Hooker, Slattery, Dempsey and Atkinson v Jamison, Thornton, Bower, Armfield, Joseph and Browne.

Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, McLean, Simpson and Walker v Watson, McVeigh, Prismall, Winderlich, Welsh and Houli.

The Blues beat us in the midfield on paper but not when the 2 teams meet.

 

[Coin_Toss]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Collingwood
Adelaide
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Sydney

 

[AG]

Williams, Monfries, Hurley, Davey, Neagle and Hille/Ryder v Betts, Henderson, Garlett, Yarran, Fisher and Waite.

Hurley is going to play in defence apparently so he is out of the forward group. You listed Hille/Ryder in the forward line yet don't include Kreuzer who will most likely spend a fair bit of time in the forward line with Warnock and Hampson as the rucks. You have a better defence but both forward lines are very, very similar. Apart from the ruckmen, Waite is the clear standout player out of those names and will be the most dangerous in the forward line imo.