Other Gambling Discussion

[Mountain West]

First off, Stealth Bomber and oh my hat

Nebraska is anywhere from a 13.5 - 14.5 point favorite this week.

To the picks:
College
Miami -1.5 v Florida State
UNLV (Nevada-Las Vegas) +16 @ Wisconsin
Connecticut -14 v Duke
Auburn -13 @ Mississippi State
Notre Dame +13.5 v Michigan
Washington State -3 v Colorado
Oregon -20.5 v Indiana
Kansas -3 v Toledo
Georgia Tech +7 @ Clemson
Alabama -11 v Ole Miss
Utah -12.5 @ Arizona

NFL
Ravens -3 @ Browns
Seahawks -2.5 @ Saints
Chargers +4.5 @ Texans
Cowboys +4.5 @ Vikings
Broncos -3 v Chiefs
Panthers -3 v Packers

 

[Master Shake]

Re: ATS picks College and NFL 9/9-9/13

I wish with my innermost being that Michigan would can Lloyd Carr and his entire coaching staff. Once again their boneheaded, conservative !@*#)*$#(@ play calling has cost them a great season.

 

[danielz_23]

Odds & Ends

Was just looking at the odds for the superbowl this year, I started with a list of a few teams but ended up just talking about Minnesota... I hadnt noticed all they had done. Everyone says no Moss, no Vikings... but does New England have a Moss!... Did Tampa!.. Did Baltimore!... (prior superbowl winners).

Minnesota $23 - personnel wise this team has made some big improvements and I think have slipped under the radar with people talking about Arizona... and what not. The division isnt extremely tough and they have a significant home field advantage. Coaching is a concern.
Add: S.Cowart & N.Harris (LB) + D.Sharper & F.Smoot (DB) + P.Williams (DT)... that alone makes a pretty impressive defence! With A.Winfield, K.Williams & C.Chavous... E.J.Henderson (developing).
Really warming to this team!

Also throw in this smokey:

Seattle $34 - thats where my 5 bucks would be going. No one has the ability to steal this division and run away with it so (a) they are a good chance to make the post season, and (b) They have been pressing for a couple of years... havent got far but they have the coaching and seemingly enough talent. Additions: A.Dyson (CB), C.Darby (DT), J.Sharper & K.Bently (LB), B.Fisher (DE), K.Herndon (CB), J.Jurevicius & J.Pathon (WR). Largely DEF, but thats where the problem has been. Loss of Simmons and C.Brown though. So they probably level out... but they will be in it.

These are both proven contenders that get the end of year yips. Im confident one will come through.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Re: Odds & Ends

I backed Minnesota at $26 and Baltimore at $23 a couple of weeks ago. I thought they were the 2 real value bets

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

I backed Minnesota at $26 and Baltimore at $23 a couple of weeks ago. I thought they were the 2 real value bets

I just went back and Minnesota is in to $18 so yeah... some other people may have had the same idea.

Denver & Seattle still value at $34..... in my opinion anyway.

 

[Portia]

Re: Odds & Ends

What odds Jacksonville? I think they're looking pretty good now.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

What odds Jacksonville? I think they're looking pretty good now.

Most likely fighting for a wild card spot though in a division with Indianapolis.

I think Houston is even a contender there so duno..

 

[Lenny Briscoe]

Re: Odds & Ends

jax has got pretty good odds i think about $40

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Ironically Yahoo! Sports have an article about most improved and Minnesota are said to have the most improved line, secondary and team. Although it must be said it was written by Cris Carter. haha

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

Ironically Yahoo! Sports have an article about most improved and Minnesota are said to have the most improved line, secondary and team. Although it must be said it was written by Cris Carter. haha

Cris Carter is possibly the most bias commentator the NFL has right. Absolute shocker.

Minnesota won't win jack ******** with Sharper playing Free Safety. Watch every No.3 receiver blow right past him this year... It's lucky Troy Williamson is on the same team...

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Cris Carter is possibly the most bias commentator the NFL has right. Absolute shocker.

Minnesota won't win jack ******** with Sharper playing Free Safety. Watch every No.3 receiver blow right past him this year... It's lucky Troy Williamson is on the same team...

No bias on your part? haha

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

No bias on your part? haha

Maybe a little... but again, I'm allowed to be, I'm not being paid to commentate.

But apparently Cris Carter didn't watch many packer games last year, cos watching Sharper was painful.

He is by far, the weak point of that secondary. And every offense will focus on that point.

Good passing teams will exploit him, bad passing teams will make him look good, as he intercepts tipped passes and hail marys...

 

[tige19]

Re: Odds & Ends

Fair go with Sharper, he was shocking last season but apart from that was a very very solid contributor and a star on Madden where his attributes where greatly exagerated hehe.

I loved watching Sharper pick of many a ball in 2002 when he was at his prime and also wasnt a bad tackler then to. Last season was a shocker for the veteran, he looked lazy and missed consecutive tackles. In saying that who the hell is gonna fill the safety role?? Roman is gonna be our general in the backfield that would make the worst college teams drool .

cheers

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

Full list of teams...

6 New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles
6.5 Indianapolis Colts
14 Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers
17 Carolina Panthers
18 Minnesota Vikings
21 Baltimore Ravens
23 Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, San Diego Chargers,
26 Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs,
28 Seattle Seahawks
35 Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, St Louis Rams
41 Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins
51 Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints
61 Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans
71 Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants
81 Chicago Bears, Houston Texans
101 Miami Dolphins
126 Cleveland Browns
201 San Francisco 49ers

I think the Titans should be around Miami's level, just can't see them doing much at all this year.

Might put some hard earned on Cincy @ $51 as an outsider, Maybe Carolina @ $17 is my pick.

The Jets might be good value at $23 too

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

I loved watching Sharper pick of many a ball in 2002 when he was at his prime and also wasnt a bad tackler then to. Last season was a shocker for the veteran, he looked lazy and missed consecutive tackles. In saying that who the hell is gonna fill the safety role?? Roman is gonna be our general in the backfield that would make the worst college teams drool .

Fear not...

The best pick in the off-season for Green Bay was Jim Bates. Quality defensive coach who will make everyone better.

Roman could be GAWN by the end of trainig camp...

Arturo Freeman is a solid player. Plays the run and pass equally well. No Ed Reed, but like I said, solid. Nick Collins could possibly win the starting FS job, but if not Little is also solid. Playmaking FS, a little quicker than DS, and a surer tackler. It's the other Corner that we have to worry about...

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Fear not...

The best pick in the off-season for Green Bay was Jim Bates. Quality defensive coach who will make everyone better.

Roman could be GAWN by the end of trainig camp...

Arturo Freeman is a solid player. Plays the run and pass equally well. No Ed Reed, but like I said, solid. Nick Collins could possibly win the starting FS job, but if not Little is also solid. Playmaking FS, a little quicker than DS, and a surer tackler. It's the other Corner that we have to worry about...

The optimisim is blinding! love your work fuey.

Just a question to put out there... is Ed Reed really any good against the run? I've assumed he is more an agile playmaker... I wouldnt expect much gets through the Ravens front 7 anyway.

Collins quick and better tackler than DS, get of his case! He is one of the best defenders you have had and your laying the boots in hey...he was very instictive and a good hitter... a lot of receivers didnt want to go across the middle with him around and he saved a lot of you 'average at best' corners play the last few years. I hate the packers and him... but I'll pay him his dues!

 

[coasting]

Re: Odds & Ends

Can't believe some of those odds. How the hell are the Redskins above young and upcoming teams like Detroit and Cincinnati? The winner will come from the top 5 rated teams here. Baltimore are no chance. For a smokee I like the Chargers at 23.

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

Just a question to put out there... is Ed Reed really any good against the run? I've assumed he is more an agile playmaker... I wouldnt expect much gets through the Ravens front 7 anyway.

Collins quick and better tackler than DS, get of his case! He is one of the best defenders you have had and your laying the boots in hey...he was very instictive and a good hitter... a lot of receivers didnt want to go across the middle with him around and he saved a lot of you 'average at best' corners play the last few years. I hate the packers and him... but I'll pay him his dues!

Dude... what the ******** are you on?

Never said Collins was a better tackler, or that he was quicker... never seen him play.

How about reading the post first, huh?

Earl Little is a shade quicker and surer tackler than Darren Sharper. Not that it means much considering Sharper is slow and can't tackle for shizen. "a good hitter... a lot of receivers didnt want to go across the middle with him around " I've heard some dumb ********, but that takes the cake. Watch a Packer game once in a while, bud.

Yes, at one time he was an excellent player, but people who can't see the steady decline over the last couple of years have not watched him enough. Simple as that.

Regarding Reed. You don't get considered the best at the Safety position without being able to tackle. He does everything. The complete package. Yeah, the front 7 is good, but you can only make the tackles that you have the opportunity to make, and he does. 75-80 tackles is quite a lot considering the talent that surrounds him.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Nick Collins could possibly win the starting FS job, but if not Little is also solid. Playmaking FS, a little quicker than DS, and a surer tackler.

Apologies... but that quite obviously isnt clear... you were talking about Collins winning it.. with an after mention of Little. Then you went on to make your points... which I still believe are incorrect... but thats just an opinion.

Little is on the decline as well anyway... was never that good of a player.

Regarding Reed. You don't get considered the best at the Safety position without being able to tackle. He does everything. The complete package. Yeah, the front 7 is good, but you can only make the tackles that you have the opportunity to make, and he does. 75-80 tackles is quite a lot considering the talent that surrounds him.

Who considers him the best safety...!? Thats a whole other discussion, and not a statement you can just make and use it to back up your point he can tackle. I shouldnt have asked the question really... didnt expect to get a logical or well informed answer... (just kidding, dont get offended)
It would be interested to compare his 'solo' tackles to other safeties for what its worth, excellent playmaker however. I was just asking the question.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Since its friday afternoon and im just killing the time till drinks.

Ed Reed - 67 Solo Tackles (97 League Leader - Griffith).... also 9 interceptions

In reference to your best safety comment... other peoples who may have an interest in that are:

Troy Polamalu - a massive hitter 74 tackles, 5 interceptions

Donovin Darius - 69 solo tackles, 5 interceptions

Brian Dawkins - injuries recently but I would probably consider him one of the best.

John Lynch
Rodney Harrison
Robert Griffith - Veterns.

Roy Williams - shows weaknesses in his game against the pass.

Sean Taylor - hasnt earned his stripes yet.

I accept that stats arent really a valuable measure. But I believe Dawkins is probably more accountable and experienced. Harrison, Lynch, Griffith, Polamalu, Williams are all strong against the run... but I guess that means it depends on what your team needs.

But Reed the best safety... pleeeease...

cheers guys, have a good weekend. Go the ummm.... Pies tonight!

 

[Lenny Briscoe]

Re: Odds & Ends

in my mind, reed is the best playmaker at safety, not necessarily the best all around safety. he can change the game better than any one else. brian dawkins and rodney harrison are the best two all around safeties and they are consistent, tough against the run and pass and definate leaders on the defense. can't ask for much more than that.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Agree there... I dont think we can say these 'play-makers' are the best. For example people dont do it with Michael Vick... so why do it with Ed Reed. Its the consistant all-round players that are the 'best' I believe.

GO THE SAINTS!!!!

 

[fuey]

Re: Odds & Ends

I accept that stats arent really a valuable measure. But I believe Dawkins is probably more accountable and experienced. Harrison, Lynch, Griffith, Polamalu, Williams are all strong against the run... but I guess that means it depends on what your team needs.

No, stats are defintiely the best way to judge a Safety. The only intangible that you can really base a Safety on is leadership, everything else can be seen in stats, IMO.

Ed Reed - 67 Solo Tackles (97 League Leader - Griffith).... also 9 interceptions

In reference to your best safety comment... other peoples who may have an interest in that are:

C'mon... go the whole hog... can't judge a guy on two statistical categories...

Averages 77 tackles a year, 1 sack, 7 INTs, 8 PDef, 1 FF, 1TD and 1 Blocked Kick. Tackles well... check. Defends the pass... check. Big play maker... check. Team leader... check.

********... Seems to me like he's got everything where it counts...

Troy Polamalu - a massive hitter 74 tackles, 5 interceptions

One good season. Rookie year was the average. If Taylor has to earn his stripes, so does Polamalu.

Donovin Darius - 69 solo tackles, 5 interceptions

More run stopping than pass defending, so can't consider him in the best overall (as in top 3/4).

Brian Dawkins - injuries recently but I would probably consider him one of the best.

The ONLY comparable Safety IMO. The only reason I'd take Reed over Dawkins is age. Would put up his stats, but they're hurt by his injury two season ago...

John Lynch
Rodney Harrison
Robert Griffith - Veterns.

Lynch hasn't been a top Safety for 3 years... Harrison is definitely No.3, cos he's not as big a play maker. Griffith doesn't make many big plays either.

Roy Williams - shows weaknesses in his game against the pass.

Spot on...

Sean Taylor - hasnt earned his stripes yet.

Spot on again...


Tell me where Reed falls short of being the best Safety?

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Re: Odds & Ends

Agree on all your points there Fuey

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Odds & Ends

Hey bud... back to it, hope you had a good weekend, haha.

No, stats are defintiely the best way to judge a Safety. The only intangible that you can really base a Safety on is leadership, everything else can be seen in stats, IMO.

So... a safety does his job... covers his zone... QB gets sacked, fumbles... defense get the ball. Safety doesnt man his zone, gets sucked in... deep ball... touchdown. In both of those situations there is no stat to the safety... but there is a big difference... stats are not the be all and end all here. i.e. when a safety is at his prime and QBs dont even go in his area, the stats fall... does that mean he is crap... dont think so... could see that happen to Reed this year.

C'mon... go the whole hog... can't judge a guy on two statistical categories...

Averages 77 tackles a year, 1 sack, 7 INTs, 8 PDef, 1 FF, 1TD and 1 Blocked Kick. Tackles well... check. Defends the pass... check. Big play maker... check. Team leader... check.

********... Seems to me like he's got everything where it counts...

So did 50 balls go over his head for touchdowns? Would all the stats counter this... if it was the case... just to confirm my above points.

He is all that... but a handful of others can be credited with such attributes. A team leader... well I'm not convinced there... Ray is the man, a lot of talent on that defence... the guy has only had one exceptional season... so far...

One good season. Rookie year was the average. If Taylor has to earn his stripes, so does Polamalu.

Polamalu has earned his stripes just as much as Reed... Reed hasnt been rolling around like this for years or anything... Polamalu is right there behind him, a different type of player though.

Taylor didnt really get a full season behind him so we can just leave that.


My point is that Reed isnt definatively the 'best safety'.... I dont argue that he is the 'best prospect' short-term and long-term... he has arrived in a big way but who is to say he is better than Dawkins... or Harrison... these are big time players and better leaders than Reed at this point... they are vet's...

I think you have to be careful when you are ranking... you put heaps of weight into potential.... which isnt really relevant... we are looking at now, what they have achieved, how they are respected... how they are the best, not how they are going ot be.... otherwise we may as well start ranking the rookies or college players no.1 that have endless talent and potential...which may hinder on 'circumstances' - we can talk about how Reed is the best next year, or the year after... but he hasnt produced... consistantly... without the best defence in the league around him (which was that before he had his starting role!!)