Preview Gameday Thread. Hawks Vs Bulldogs

[grizzlym]

Round 14
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs at the MCG, 7.40pm (EST)

Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton
HB: Thomas Murphy, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Clinton Young, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Xavier Ellis
F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Rick Ladson, Jordan Lewis, Beau Muston, Wayde Skipper
Emg: Jordan Lisle, Carl Peterson, Brendan Whitecross
No change

Western Bulldogs
B: Jarrod Harbrow, Brian Lake, Ryan Hargrave
HB: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Callan Ward, Matthew Boyd, Daniel Cross
HF: Shaun Higgins, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
F: Jarrad Grant, Barry Hall, Daniel Giansiracusa
Foll: Ben Hudson, Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney
I/C: Will Minson, Sam Reid, Easton Wood, Liam Picken
Emg: Nathan Eagleton, Brennan Stack, Tom Williams
In: Higgins, Reid, Ward
Out: Brennan Stack, Josh Hill, Nathan Eagleton
FORM
Hawthorn: WWWWW
Western Bulldogs: WLLWW

http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,27345308-5018851,00.html

A dog day night

We've had some horrible maulings of late at the hands of the rabid Bullies. But we did run 'em close at the last meeting, and our star is undoubtedly on the ascent. This game promises to be a cracker, shaping the fortunes of both clubs for the rest of the season.

We've speculated on the team changes here.

And discussed the merits of the actual team selected here.

Many thanks to Moginie for the great preview too. (Mr Bartos is on leave/detention/unavailable this week, but promises to be back bigger and uglier next week).

The usual post-game threads - Autopsy & Next Round Changes - will be up immediately after the game, and don't forgot to vote for the best players too.

So without any further ado, it's on with the gameday thread, Go Hawks!

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

This is an absolutely, non-negotiable must win game for us.

Win and we approach the following fortnight against Geelong and St Kilda having taken a good scalp and with plenty of confidence. We could end up at 9-7 (or, heaven forbid 10-6) and push for the top four after those games.

Lose and the air goes out of the balloon and we are suddenly staring at 7-9.

Big game. Massive.

For me, Roughead just has to play out of the square and keep the space open for Buddy, Rioli and Osborne (underrated, vital player) to exploit. Buddy MUST be on his bike tonight. If he stands with Lake and tries to body up on him, he and the Hawks are dead. Buddy can beat Lake aerobically though and needs to run his guts out all night.

As I said, huge game.

 

[Dinsdale]

thanks, wheres the Moginie preview?

I'll be at the G for my 2nd Hawks game of the year, hoping for a similar result to the first (round 1).

Carn HAWKS !!!!!

 

[grizzlym]

Your preview is by Moginie

Hawthorn return from the break as one of the form sides of the last two months. It doesn’t seem all that long ago that we were lamenting our lack of form, ruckmen & an alternate game plan. Now, thanks to a more committed attack on the ball, a mobile ruckman that gives us plenty of alternatives around the ground, a man called Burgoyne adding polish to our midfield & an across the board lifting of our intensity, we sit in the 8, looking to consolidate against a team which has had our measure since the 2008 Qualifying Final.

What happened last time:
PING, CRASH. Two sounds a Hawks supporter can associate with the round 3 clash. The first is Josh Gibson’s hammy going, the second the collision between Lewis & Harbrow. Both had a significant impact for the Hawks, reducing our rotations against a fast finishing Bulldogs team. Not that we were the only team with injuries; Hargraves, Akermanis & Williams were also struggling by the end of the game. In many ways, it came down to our absence of ruckmen – Renouf had been hobbling since the middle of the second quarter & our third man up theory was exposed when the Dogs won the tap, then the clearance & found numbers to spare out wide. Barry Hall came into his own kicking 5 of the last 7 Bulldog goals.

What’s happened since:
Since the round 3 clash both teams are 6-4. Both have had wins against Adelaide & Sydney and losses against Essendon & Collingwood. The form of both teams in round 13 was positive – the Dogs winding up in the second half to pound the Eagles & Hawthorn’s gutsy, inspired defeat of Essendon.

The teams:
The Dogs went into their last game unchanged after their defeat of Brisbane. This week they have Higgins available, and possibly Ward, Williams & Everitt. Josh Gibson had some game time at Box Hill last week while Carl Peterson & Brendan Whitecross did not. Any changes to either team should only be to increase versatility.

Milestones:
Ben Stratton plays his 12th game, joining such Hawthorn luminaries as Scott Wade & Luke McPharlin.

Where the Dogs will win:
The Western Bulldogs have a very dangerous, versatile forward line. Their H brigade (Hall, Hill, Higgins, Harbrow & Hahn) will take a power of stopping. If their midfield gets on top for any length of time they can score quickly & put the game beyond doubt, as they did in a 7 minute burst the last time we met. Hall is obviously a danger man who is strong on the lead & has good form against us already this season.

Where Hawthorn will win:
The most pleasing aspect of our improved form over the last 6 weeks has been the increase in winning contested ball. The intensity by our midfield cannot drop or we can expect to be cut apart. We’ve been pressured in most of the games we’ve won & managed to dig deep, increase the desperation then capitalize on the flair of our matchwinners. The last time we beat the Bulldogs we won the clearances, the contested ball & out tackled them. We know we can do it. We just have to do it again.

Wild Cards:
Liam Picken – I rate Picken very highly. He did a great job on Sewell during the NAB Cup & it remains to be seen which one of our danger men he picks up. If he can shut down Mitchell or Hodge, it will increase the burden on the rest of our midfield.

Shaun Burgoyne – If what comes out from HFC is true, then Silk has been playing at 70% for the previous 6 weeks. It may not be the amount of touches he gets, but what he does with them (didn’t we say that about Dew?). His tackling against Essendon was pretty good & his field positioning gives our midfield more dimensions. A good game from him might be the difference between winning & losing.

X-Factors:
Will Clarko coach from the bench again this week? He looks happier down at ground level.

Will Rocket put Lake down forward & if so, for how long? He’d be one forward we would struggle to match up with.


Verdict:
Hawks fans have been surfing a growing wave of optimism for the past few weeks. This game will truly tell us where we are, what we need to do & how we need to do it to be a threat at the pointy end of this season. But Hawthorn has their old strut back. Bateman’s work on Stanton & Muston’s tagging of Fletcher pointed to a return to the physical style that won us the 2008 premiership. If we control the middle, we’ll win. If we don’t, they’ll cut us up. The teams are evenly matched, but we have the Franklin factor who can, & probably will, play where he pleases. As long as he keeps Lake/Morris/Williams running & not trying to wrestle one out we’ll have the attack to win.

 

[Goody1971]

Buddy MUST be on his bike tonight. If he stands with Lake and tries to body up on him, he and the Hawks are dead. Buddy can beat Lake aerobically though and needs to run his guts out all night.

quote]

This is the main thing for me - of course a full team effort will be required, but if Buddy can shake off the Brian Lake blues and pull out a few more of those running goals then lookout doggies. Hopefully having been raved about in the media since the Bombers game will have given Buddy a large and healthy ego boost and feeling like he can do anything. Time for Buddy to exceed his 5 goal bag limit!

 

[MinerBoy]

This is an absolutely, non-negotiable must win game for us.

Win and we approach the following fortnight against Geelong and St Kilda having taken a good scalp and with plenty of confidence. We could end up at 9-7 (or, heaven forbid 10-6) and push for the top four after those games.

Lose and the air goes out of the balloon and we are suddenly staring at 7-9.

Big game. Massive.

For me, Roughead just has to play out of the square and keep the space open for Buddy, Rioli and Osborne (underrated, vital player) to exploit. Buddy MUST be on his bike tonight. If he stands with Lake and tries to body up on him, he and the Hawks are dead. Buddy can beat Lake aerobically though and needs to run his guts out all night.

As I said, huge game.

Exactamundo.

Statement time.

 

[willo_k]

<Obvious>Must win game</Obvious>

 

[Elliot G]

Milestones:
Ben Stratton plays his 12th game, joining such Hawthorn luminaries as Scott Wade & Luke McPharlin.

Brilliant.

 

[PewPewPew]

Don't know if it has been brought up yet but Muston to play defensive forward on Harbrow to stifle his run out of the backline and make him accountable? Not sure what kind of form Harbrow has been in recently so this woudl obviously apply to Doggies most imporant 'rebounding' defender.

Musto was very effective in the role against Fletcher last game (and a number of other games also).

I recon Clarko will be all over this.

 

[The Kipster]

Brilliant.

x 2 GOLD

We in my view have moved forward since the earlier match, our game plan has evolved, our clearance work has evolved with it (thank god, kicking out of the congestion works a treat, when required)

I think we will know early that we have come to play and suggest that it is not impossible for a decent Hawk win

Hawks by 23pts

 

[cs61]

Don't know if it has been brought up yet but Muston to play defensive forward on Harbrow to stifle his run out of the backline and make him accountable? Not sure what kind of form Harbrow has been in recently so this woudl obviously apply to Doggies most imporant 'rebounding' defender.

Musto was very effective in the role against Fletcher last game (and a number of other games also).

I recon Clarko will be all over this.

Yeah or Gilbee is another who hurts us a bit out of there. Griffen may play more midfield so Bateman might run with him. Sewell on Cooney.

 

[go hawks!!!]

Key match up:

Lake v Buddy

Lake has a mental advantage over buddy. In the 2008 finals series, Buddy kicked 8, but laske only played the 2nd half on buddy. Last year, Buddy was held goalless by lake, first time in 73 games. In the NAB cup, lake killed buddy. In rd 3, Lake made Buddy look like a poser, first time i heard a crowd scream for buddy's blood. Watch out, redemption is tonight. Buddy has the 'swagger' back. Will run Lake off his feet come the 2nd half, and avoid one-on-ones.

If Buddy beats lake, we will win. Yes, I understand it is dependent on the midfield, but Buddy will play up the ground, and assist the midfield.

Go hawks!!!

 

[markr]

Will run Lake off his feet come the 2nd half, and avoid one-on-ones.

Franklin just needs to keep his workrate up and not drop his head. If you watched the Brisbane/Dogs game this year, Lake did well on Brown, but eventually Brown just ran him into the ground and Brown became more and more prominant as the game went on.

I'm sure Lake will win contests early, Franklin just has to make sure he keeps working for four quarters and he'll get his reward.

Alternatively the Dogs may try to have Lake stay back and have someone else pick up Franklin when he goes up the ground, Franklin needs to be smart enough to try and get them lost as they swap over.

Roughead also needs to be dangerous hopefully against a smaller opponent.

 

[Turly]

Shoey to Hall??? This is a huge one for me, and it's got me a bit worried, but if shoey can hold hall then that would go a long way to us winning this game.

Buddy needs to be doing exactly what he was doing against essendon, run Lake off his legs and if Lake pushes forward then Buddy to go back into the forward 50.

Muston to Gilbee, Sewell to Cooney?????? ah maybe murph to johnson? Stratts to Gia?

the question for me is who will go to hall? gilham or Shoey, I hope Shoey.

 

[Elliot G]

Damn! Really is a crucial game isnt it? Struggling to concentrate on work today I'm that fired up! (shame I'm in Sydney and will have to wait till 11.30pm!!!)

My thoughts: we can hypothesise over match-ups all day (and that's what we do on forums!), but for me, it seems like one of those contests where there are so many variables, with a large number of players on both sides able (and recently doing it well) to play out of their customary position... Bateman, Muston for us; Gilbee, Murphy for them, just to name a few..

We played the 1-on-1 game pretty well against the Dons, but who knows if we'll go with that again. If we do, each red-hot contest, of each tight clearance, of each bruising minute, of each tough quarter, is going to be absolutely crucial.

Expect a bit of niggle in the opening quarter I reckon. Both teams know how much is riding on this, and they'll be keen to make a stand early on.

My brown and gold blood says to tip us in a close one, but really, we don't know. Sacreligious that may be, but it's fair.

In the words of Fatboy Slim, we've come a long way baby, since we last played them, but they've been far from shabby either. Could their inclusions be match-winners, or perhaps, maybe they're a touch underdone?

On the flipside, we go into this one as settled as we've probably been all year, and with a week's rest under our belt, some pretty good form, we get them on our beloved 'G again, maybe, just maybe, we can knock them over.

Hawks by 9 points <3

 

[Ant_]

Franklin just needs to keep his workrate up and not drop his head. If you watched the Brisbane/Dogs game this year, Lake did well on Brown, but eventually Brown just ran him into the ground and Brown became more and more prominant as the game went on.

Credit the lions midfield not Brown, that was due to the rolling wall/flood the lions had going in the third qtr in that game. Dogs stopped and couldn't get it past their half back line, coupled with Williams going off on a stretcher, Lake & Morris were run of their feet.

 

[Scribe]

Frankly, if Buddy is going to get on his bike, I'd expect Morris to go with him all over the ground. Smaller defender, but very good aerobically and quick in closing down his opponent if/when the get the ball in play on situations.

Doggies would prefer to keep Lake deep, and if that's the case, then chuck Roughie up the ground and plonk a quick leading FF option such as a resting Cyril or Ossie to lead hard and fast into space and catch Lake out on the sprint.

 

[spudmaster]

Brilliant.

Haha that "12th game milestone" remark was pure gold

Stratt's to play on Hall and Johnno simultaneously tonight in a public display of his levels of awesomeness

 

[Boyler_Room]

Key match up:

Lake v Buddy

Lake has a mental advantage over buddy. In the 2008 finals series, Buddy kicked 8, but laske only played the 2nd half on buddy. Last year, Buddy was held goalless by lake, first time in 73 games. In the NAB cup, lake killed buddy. In rd 3, Lake made Buddy look like a poser, first time i heard a crowd scream for buddy's blood. Watch out, redemption is tonight. Buddy has the 'swagger' back. Will run Lake off his feet come the 2nd half, and avoid one-on-ones.

If Buddy beats lake, we will win. Yes, I understand it is dependent on the midfield, but Buddy will play up the ground, and assist the midfield.

Go hawks!!!

From that game versus Melbourne where he went forward and had an impact, he said Rocket had given him license to push forward. Look for Lake to go hiding in the forward line tonight. Buddy to have a monster on the hallowed MCG turf.

 

[spudmaster]

Frankly, if Buddy is going to get on his bike, I'd expect Morris to go with him all over the ground. Smaller defender, but very good aerobically and quick in closing down his opponent if/when the get the ball in play on situations.

Doggies would prefer to keep Lake deep, and if that's the case, then chuck Roughie up the ground and plonk a quick leading FF option such as a resting Cyril or Ossie to lead hard and fast into space and catch Lake out on the sprint.

Can't find much wrong with that logic at all, Scribe. Well suggested.

Would love to see the forward defensive pressure take it up yet another notch tonight. It's been improving week in week out and I'm sure our defenders appreciate having more time to sort themselves out when the opposition get the rebound - not to mention it gives the midfielders a chance to get in position to slow down the counter attack as well.

We know it's difficult to stop Hall, it always is. If we can least slow down the entry into their f50 then we give our blokes the best chance of dropping a few rebounding dfefenders/midfielders back in front of him to cut off his supply.

Starting to get anxious/excited now

Carn the Hawks!

 

[spudmaster]

What do people think about the possibility of rain and it's potential impact on the game?

While I'm sure that most teams will look better in the dry, ourselves included, part of me thinks we might be more accostomed to the conditions than the doggies given they play at Etihad more often than not, and won't have the same exposure to the wet.

Additionally, wet weather usually works against big forwards but i have the belief that Buddy has the ability to play (somewhat) at ground level and crumb his own ball while i don't believe the same is true for Bazza. (not too sure how it would affect Rough and Johnno)

I rate our small forwards extremely highly too, although would love to have had hooper as well if it pours down.

 

[cuttlefish]

If we can deliver to our forward with pinpoint accuracy, then we're in with a show. Here's hoping Burgoyne has a blinder, ditto Hodge, ditto Young.

 

[johntravoltron]

What do people think about the possibility of rain and it's potential impact on the game?

While I'm sure that most teams will look better in the dry, ourselves included, part of me thinks we might be more accostomed to the conditions than the doggies given they play at Etihad more often than not, and won't have the same exposure to the wet.

Additionally, wet weather usually works against big forwards but i have the belief that Buddy has the ability to play (somewhat) at ground level and crumb his own ball while i don't believe the same is true for Bazza. (not too sure how it would affect Rough and Johnno)

I rate our small forwards extremely highly too, although would love to have had hooper as well if it pours down.

s**t it's just started pissing down again!! I thought it was going to hold off.
I think it definitely helps you guys if it's wet, we need dry weather to best use our skills to break down your zone.

 

[spudmaster]

s**t it's just started pissing down again!! I thought it was going to hold off.
I think it definitely helps you guys if it's wet, we need dry weather to best use our skills to break down your zone.

Thanks for the response, JT.
Always good to hear how the other sides supporters view the same situation

So long as the rain pauses briefly between running from the train station and into the ground i reckon

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Just a big test for all our blokes. No excuses tonight. We have a good team in, they're rested and the coaches have had two weeks to prepare strategically.

Bring it on !!