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Geelong List Analysis

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The Cotch

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Hey guys, you can put this in another thread if you like, but I took a look at the Cats list yesterday on footytragic.com as we've been doing for every club. There is a table on the website showing the Cats list divided into different categories, but I'm struggling putting it on here. http://www.footytragic.com/blog/team-depth-charts/geelong-cats-team-analysis/

Here it is.....

GEELONG CATS LIST ANALYSIS

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):
Inside Mid: 9 (7.8)
Outside Mid: 5 (6.1)
Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)
Med Fwd: 5 (4.0)
Small Fwd: 3 (3.1)
Key Back: 6 (4.4)
Med Back: 5 (7.0)
Small Back: 1 (1.6)
Ruck: 4 (3.4)
Utility: 0 (1.1)

18-21: 13 (12.2)
22-25: 11 (16.9)
26-28: 5 (7.3)
29+: 11 (5.8)
Geelong, Geelong, Geelong…….


What an amazing team.


There were so many out there at the start of the season proclaiming that their dynasty had come to an end. Too old, too slow, what did they know?
Chris Scott has to take a lot of credit for a transformation that seems quite minor from the outside, but it was actually quite major. He mixed and changed the side every single week, every player got rested during the course of the year, and most importantly he blooded new kids who had a major impact on the premiership in 2011.


Do they have what it takes to go back to back? I have absolutely no doubt. I predicted them to ‘surprise’ the doubters this season, mainly due to the fact that Stephen Wells is the God of recruiting and while they haven’t had the luxury of high draft picks over the last five years, ‘Wellsy’ has pretty much got every one of his picks spot on.


Geelong has an ageing list. Yes, we know that, and eventually the reign must end, but it won’t be a bottom out. The Cats nearly have all bases covered when the inevitable retirements occur, namely Matthew Scarlett, Joel Corey, and Brad Ottens. The likes of Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Corey Enright, Paul Chapman, and Steve Johnson will be around for at least another three to four years, I have no doubt, barring injury. It will be a steady transformation, and a well thought out one, the typical Geelong way.


Geelong’s youth development is strong, in fact one of, if not the best. It’s amazing how players like Alan Christensen, Daniel Menzel, Mitch Duncan, Trent West and Nathan Vardy can come straight into that side and put in not only solid games, but big, influential games. You look at those five players alone, along with some of the younger guys coming through their system, and you quickly realise Geelong are not going anywhere near the bottom anytime soon.


So let’s slice apart their list……


I’ll start with the midfield, as I think this is where they need to focus a lot of attention on in the upcoming drafts, particularly the inside midfielders to help out Selwood down the track. Horlin-Smith looks the next most promising player out of those young guys and I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Simpkin in the VFL. Mind you, James Kelly and Jimmy Bartel are two of the games finest extractors, and will not be going anywhere for another few years at least. It’s just all about planning, and getting ready for the next generation, and Geelong are in a position where they can let the guys who they draft develop at a steady rate and not have to fast track them.
Their pure outside midfielders, while there’s not many of them, are genuine quality. Alan Christensen is a star and to this day I still can’t believe how he slipped so far in the 2009 draft. I put Mackie in there, because particularly in the finals, he played up on a wing. He’s now becoming more of a senior player, so I can see Scott pushing him up the ground a bit more as he’s such a good playmaker for them. Also, just while I’m on the topic of Mackie, his Grand Final performance was so severely under rated! He was huge! In the future I can see guys like Menzel, Smedts, Guthrie and even Motlop push up into the midfield and be good outside players, but for the time being they’ll be developed at either end of the ground.


So, in my opinion, the next three drafts should be stacked with midfielders for the Cats, especially players who can rotate forward to compensate for the eventual losses of Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman. Someone like a Patty Dangerfield would fit that bill perfectly (woops did I say something?).
The other place that will begin to look pretty bare is the backline. For now, the key position back stocks are fine, with Gillies waiting in the wings, but they’ll need one or two development talls. Medium and small backs will need to be addressed as well but it may be a case of Mackie having to play there if need be. Guys like Smedts and Varcoe are more than capable of playing off a half-back line, so again, not a pressing issue, but it should be addressed eventually.


Geelong’s ruck stocks are awesome, even post Brad Ottens. Trent West has arrived, and I suspect will take the bulk of duties leading into next season, with Ottens being given more of a ride leading into the finals. Dare I say, he could be a little Dream Team smokey…..


Nathan Vardy is still super young, so he’ll be given plenty of time, and Dawson Simpson could be anything. He is one giant bloke, who is ultra-competitive and should be given more games next season.


Geelong’s forward line is fine for now, but it never hurts to draft a couple of talls for insurance down the track. Their small forwards are fine, Byrnes and Stokes are not that old, and Motlop is a fine player if he can get over his injuries. Chapman and Johnson don’t really need much said about them, and they’ll still be there for a few years yet as well.


Once Mitch Brown is fit, watch out. The kid is a goal kicking machine and he’ll have one those years where everyone stands up and says, ‘where did this kid come from?’ Next year could be his season, but I’ll ease the pressure and say 2013.


Now finally, but definitely not least, I want to dedicate a paragraph to Tom Hawkins. Tomahawk is/was the most unfairly maligned player in the competition by people who forget how young he actually is. Anyone who saw him in the early days knew it would take him MINIMUM four to five years to find his feet. People assumed just because Tom came into the AFL with this massive frame that he’d be dominating from the get-go. That’s not how it works. In my pre-season article I predicted Tom to have his breakout year this season, but in hindsight I probably went one year too early. Toms Grand Final performance was only a glimpse of what he’s capable of. I can’t think of a defender who will be able to match him one on one in strength inside the forward fifty. He treated Ben Reid like a rag-doll, and there’ll only be more of it to come. It was only a case of when Tom realised what he is capable of that it would all come together, and I think he finally has. Jump on board the Tomahawk train, the kid’s a superstar.


SUMMARY

The Cats list, whilst it’s ageing, is in very good hands and most importantly remains in very good shape. The youth balance is there, and most spots are covered. Draft focus should be on a few more midfield/forward types, defenders of all sizes and a couple of key forwards for depth.


FANTASY SPIN

Does Trent West take the #1 ruck role for the Cats? If he does, he could be a genuine smokey.


Mitch Brown should get many more games if he remains injury free.


Tom Hawkins to EXPLODE next season, more so in Super Coach though.


Chapman will probably spend a lot more time forward next season meaning his days of elite fantasy status are possibly over.


Billie Smedts and George Horlin-Smith should get a bit of a go next year as well!


http://www.footytragic.com/blog/team-depth-charts/geelong-cats-team-analysis/


You can subscribe to the website and have your say as well! Thanks guys.
 
Great read mate, and great analysis. The only thing I will say is people won't be happy with giving Bundy the outside player role. I guess the fact is he can play forward, inside mid or possibly on a wing its hard to decide where you want him.

I'm also not quite as confident about Hawkins, but I bloody hope you are right.

We are in a great position and I agree, the future looks good.
 

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Really good read, but a lot of the players have been miscategorised IMO, and while the premise is commendable, the statistics are rendered redundant if you put the players in to the wrong categories.

Of course, deciding whether Player X is an inside mid or outside mid is a subjective thing (not usually something you associate with statistics), but as an example I doubt many would describe Andrew Mackie as a midfielder these days.
 
Selwood boxed with Hogan and simpkin, I don't think so! am I reading it right?

That was only done because the list is bracketed by age and Hogan and Simpkin are the only other two mids we have in the Selwood age bracket (unless you consider Varcoe a mid, although I'd still consider him more a forward), I'm sure he wasn't comparing them to Joel on talent, just on the classification of age and playing position.

Back on the OP, I wouldn't be too concerned about classifying mids as 'inside' and 'outside' although I understand why this is done as a breakdown is necessary to make an analysis manageable. But one of the things about our recruiting philosophy is that we don't draft runners for specific inside and outside roles but rather expect all of our runners to be capable of winning their own ball and be contested players regardless of their designated role. Bundy is a good example of this, can be genuinely damaging if put on the outside, but he's as contested a young player as you'll find. Anyway, that quibble aside, it's a good analysis, and I commend theCotch for the time and effort he's put into it, nice to see a neutral putting that effort in and appreciating that we have drafted well and have a sustainable future.

On the future drafting, I would agree that we do need mids, and that was a focus of our drafting last year and still needs to be going forward. That said, I still think our immediate priority (i.e. the next 2 drafts) needs to be talls given generally speaking they take the longest to develop, and we can then fill with more mids later. This is supported by the fact that in 4 years, which is probably how long a lot of talls take, Scarlett will be retired, probably Pods too, and Lonergan will be 32 and Taylor 29. Hawkins will be in his prime age as will West/Vardy/Simpson but we'll need more to go with Gillies and more young talls to go with Hawkins as well (Brown I think is a great talent but not sure if he'll have the body for a KP role or more of a very smart agile flnaker). That said, Wells is smarter than me, so I trust him, and I'll watch with interest how he continues to build the list going forward.
 
excellent read
an_cheers.gif
 

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T Hunt Taylor Walker
Smedts Lonergan Guthrie
Varcoe Kelly Motlop
Duncan Brown Bartel
Menzel Hawkins Vardy

West Christo Sellwood

INT FROM:
Dawson, Simkin, Horlin-Smith, Cowan,
Schroeder, Bathie, Hogan,

(need a Stokes like player in the forward pocket)
 
T Hunt Taylor Walker
Smedts Lonergan Guthrie
Varcoe Kelly Motlop
Duncan Brown Bartel
Menzel Hawkins Vardy

West Christo Sellwood

INT FROM:
Dawson, Simkin, Horlin-Smith, Cowan,
Schroeder, Bathie, Hogan,

(need a Stokes like player in the forward pocket)

Umm... Whats this? Walker playing back pocket?
 
Walker is on our rookie list.
Played very well in the seconds this year.
Was drafted as a forward but played back in the seconds most of the time.
this year.

McLean was even better but is 28 years of age.
 
Need to upgrade Bathie, we need a big mature bodied defender if Lonergan or Taylor go down, if he's near up to it as some suggest, best we move sooner rather than to late.
 
Need to upgrade Bathie, we need a big mature bodied defender if Lonergan or Taylor go down, if he's near up to it as some suggest, best we move sooner rather than to late.

We'll have Menzel out for the first 12 rounds (and after that every club gets a free rookie upgrade anyway) so should something awful like that happen, he can come up anyway. Same for the other rookies, so it shouldn't be a huge problem. If he continues his current level of improvement he may well push for elevation down the track.
 
Need to upgrade Bathie, we need a big mature bodied defender if Lonergan or Taylor go down, if he's near up to it as some suggest, best we move sooner rather than to late.

umm.... maybe, depends on how he's doing. We do need a big body if Taylor or Lonergan goes down. How many rookies can we elevate?? I think Simpkin for sure, bathie? Walker???
 

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umm.... maybe, depends on how he's doing. We do need a big body if Taylor or Lonergan goes down. How many rookies can we elevate?? I think Simpkin for sure, bathie? Walker???

We can elevate one for Menzel at anytime.

We can elevate further rookies if an additional player gets an injury of at least eight weeks (although I hope none do of course).

We're pretty good for cover anyway, I'd suspect Gillies would be more likely to come in if a tall defender got injured, as well as Bathie and Walker have played they are more long term prospects at this stage.
 
Thought Bathie was responsible for pushing Gillies out onto a flank?

IMO, Bathie's the only other option, Walker's still a kid and Simpkin is a small midfielder, so don't know why he's being mentioned, guess unless you want another mid?
Our real problem is a key defender.
 
smipkin has done nothing wrong he had a very good year in the VFL thats why people are putting his name up.but there is no real spot for him in the main team just yet with cowan/shredder/billie/monty all could play that forward type role with spells in the midfeild.
 
I really want to see Schroder get a game next year, what were the reasons behind him not getting a go last year?

From what i saw he's hard at the ball, and had some good games in the VFL. Is the fitness/tank just not there yet for AFL? Would be a great max rooke replacement imo.
 
I really want to see Schroder get a game next year, what were the reasons behind him not getting a go last year?

From what i saw he's hard at the ball, and had some good games in the VFL. Is the fitness/tank just not there yet for AFL? Would be a great max rooke replacement imo.


Don't know how much gametime he gets up forward (VFL) but always seems to get a couple, like to see him play a Menzel role up fwd NAB Cup, he's a little smaller I think, but worth a go.
His fitness isn't an issue.
 
Thought Bathie was responsible for pushing Gillies out onto a flank?

IMO, Bathie's the only other option, Walker's still a kid and Simpkin is a small midfielder, so don't know why he's being mentioned, guess unless you want another mid?
Our real problem is a key defender.

Simpkin's being mentioned because elevations to senior list tend to be based on good VFL form as Laidler put down, and Simpkin's been the best rookie this year hands down.

I suspect that if one of the tall backs get injured Gillies would come in anyway, yes Bathie and Walker have shown good signs, but Bathie in particular has only played one year of footy and Gillies has an extra couple of years development on both of them.
 

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