Geelong wins without #29

[Jumping Jack]

Just wondering if anyone had the stats on Geelongs win/loss record in the last 3-4 years in games without Ablett? Albeit he did'nt miss too many games - but I would've thought it did'nt have as big an impact as what opposition supporters would have you believe.

Conversely, using the prelim Vs Collingwood as a recent example .... I wonder how many times we lost matches when Ablett had big numbers? We obviously lost the prelim and he had plenty of the ball ..... I also think back to another BIG game being the 2008 GF where many thought he was best on ground - and we lost.

So what's my point? - Well, there's a growing school of thought now that the dust has settled, that Ablett's loss might not be the massive blow to Geelong as many had thought .... and I have thought this all along. Personally, I reckon the side was becoming too 'Ablett Centric' and quite often his performances over-shadowed some great team performances. Geelong will be more honest and accountable under the guidance of Scott and I sense that in some ways Ablett's departure not only gives young blokes a chance to push through - but it also allows Geelong to start playing great team football and not get caught up in the Ablett posessions game which I reckon we fell for alot more in 2010 than previous years.

Go back to 2007 when our great run started ........ I'll guarantee there was a much stronger team focus than what we saw in 2010. And I reckon we're all guilty of getting caught up in the hype .... not just the team and the coaching staff.

Just a personal observation.

 

[CatTricks]

I would love for us to go back the 07 form and do it all again!
Heres hoping!!

 

[BotsMaster]

We smacked Sydney and Norf in 09 and beat Hawks in 08.

 

[SJ]

I'll do some analysis on this tonight.

 

[vinum coupe]

It was posted somewhere just last week. I'll have a look

 

[i_need_a_pencil]

GAblett is a genuine game breaker/winner. Just has the ability to pull something out when needed.

I think we'll miss him when games are tight, obviously, but in terms of his overall contributions in your average games - we are not completely dependent on him... just considering out talent is pretty well spread. As you said, our 'team' form and focus of 07 was just that, a team effort.

And having said that, we also have some other game breakers like Chappy, SJ, Selwood, Jimmy.

Am looking forward to the stats.... though they won't reflect the games we won because of Ablett (obviously would be hard to find, and completely subjective), which are just as important as the ones where we lost when he wasn't there. Interesting never-the-less!

 

[goyoucatters]

Here's a quick run-down...

2007 Gazza played all 25...we went 21-4.

2008 Gazza played 21...in those games, we went 19-2.

He missed Round 7 105-78 win at Skilled against the Lions
He missed Round 16 131-70 win at Skilled against the Dogs
He missed Round 17 88-77 win at the 'G against the Hawks
He missed Round 18 134-71 win at Etihad against the Tiges

So, 4-0 in the games he missed in 2008.

2009 Gazza played 22...in those games we went 19-3.

He missed Round 7 116-65 win at Skilled against the Swans
He missed Round 8 119-49 win at Skilled against the Kangas
He missed Round 15 65-108 LOSS at the Gabba against the Lions

So, 2-1 in the games he missed in 2009.

2010 Gazza played 24...in those games we went 17-7.

He missed Round 6 161-53 win at Skilled against the Tiges

So, 1-0 in the games he missed in 2010.

The raw stats say (2007-2010):

GFC (overall) wins 83/100 (83%)
GFC (with Gaz) wins 76/92 (83%)
GFC (without Gaz) wins 7/8 (88%)

Basically, no great difference statistically.

If you look a little closer at the games he missed, it shows:

5 at the Cattery (1 against eventual finalist)
1 at the 'G (against eventual premier)
1 at Etihad (against eventual non-finalist)
1 at the Gabba (against eventual finalist)

Overall, 3 against eventual finalists and 5 against also-rans for that season.

Even with the weighting of games at Skilled (and the eventual mediocre performance for that season of most of the KP opponents), it is still a fair record.

Also, it is worth considering that the Gabbba debacle in '09 saw a lot more lynchpins of the team missing than GAJ. It was the week following the Etihad armwrestle against the Saints, and it seemed apparent that many of the 'senior' players still selected were barely right themselves (I remember thinking at the ground that night that both Jimmy B and #14 seemed very heavy in the legs).

Overall, I think JJ's recollections are well-matched by the stats. Gaz is a huge loss, but it's a fantastic opportunity for a whole stack of players to step up and play a role in a champion team. A team that hasn't simply won game after game off Gary's back.

In fact, the games where Gaz has demonstrably carried the team (e.g. 2008 GF and 2010 PF) have ended in ignominious losses. Not blaming him for that - it's just the reality as I see it.

S.

 

[Vdubs]

IMO, any results like this over the past 4 years are essentially flawed because of our utter dominance. We ALL know we did not rely on a single player, but during 2010, when we started a mini-decline, Ablett hardly missed a game and we didn't capitalize on his dominance individually.

The true indicator will be the NEXT 4 years without him , related to both our natural decline and Ablett not being in the team. Nobody would be surprised that we won games up until now without him, as he hardly missed critical games, exception Hawks 08 maybe, and such was the strength of our team, which it may still be in the future, but time will tell.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

IMO, any results like this over the past 4 years are essentially flawed because of our utter dominance. We ALL know we did not rely on a single player, but during 2010, when we started a mini-decline, Ablett hardly missed a game and we didn't capitalize on his dominance individually.

The true indicator will be the NEXT 4 years without him , related to both our natural decline and Ablett not being in the team. Nobody would be surprised that we won games up until now without him, as he hardly missed critical games, exception Hawks 08 maybe, and such was the strength of our team, which it may still be in the future, but time will tell.

You are right, but that argument cuts both ways i.e. when we struggle on the field at times (i.e. win less games) over the next 4 years, a lot of people will go 'missing Ablett' but the reality is it will be the loss of about 15 players, including Ablett, that will cause the short term downturn (while we get the kids up to speed). Drilling down to see how much impact the loss of this one player, out of the overall group has, will be a more complicated task.