Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[Johanpetro]

Hasn't Rankine been playing a fair bit of footy on ball?

Yeh which makes him even better than Stengle. Great small forward but I don’t see him going into the guts and getting close to 20 a game like Rankine. Had a 24 touch 3 goal game against the lions then backed it up with a 30 touch 1 goal game against the pies

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Holmes and Stengle are the best two players in our team so far this year.

Why people do not rate him and think he is easily replaced is beyond me.

If he were to leave, and I hope not, to get a second-round pick would be very disappointing.

I think you’ll find that those people agree with everything the club does.
If we threw money at him they would agree he’s worth it.
If we lowball him and he leaves they will also agree.
The club can do no wrong in some peoples eyes.
I also think it will be a disaster if we were to lose him.
If we didn’t have him this year we would be a couple of wins less than what we are now.
He’s very important.
As I’ve said previously, you do everything you can do keep your best players.

 

[bombersboy]

Yeh which makes him even better than Stengle. Great small forward but I don’t see him going into the guts and getting close to 20 a game like Rankine. Had a 24 touch 3 goal game against the lions then backed it up with a 30 touch 1 goal game against the pies

I agree a player who can be an elite small forward and a mid is more valuable but what is he rated as - a small forward or a mid? Playing mid will skew some of the stats you quoted.

 

[D BRIDGE]

I agree a player who can be an elite small forward and a mid is more valuable but what is he rated as - a small forward or a mid? Playing mid will skew some of the stats you quoted.

If Rankin is spending less time forward than Stengle (which he is)... he is going pretty good too have basically the same ave goal and goal assists.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I think you’ll find that those people agree with everything the club does.
If we threw money at him they would agree he’s worth it.
If we lowball him and he leaves they will also agree.
The club can do no wrong in some peoples eyes.
I also think it will be a disaster if we were to lose him.
If we didn’t have him this year we would be a couple of wins less than what we are now.
He’s very important.
As I’ve said previously, you do everything you can do keep your best players.

It's called trust, earned over a long period of time.

Most of the people you're referencing probably did melt over the clubs decisions once upon a time. I was the same before I signed up here.

...but after being proven wrong time and time again, they back what the club is doing until proven otherwise.

If we were St Kilda supporters, I'm sure most on here would question everything the club does, as you have no faith that they're actually going to get it right. I know I would.

Fortunately, we're lucky enough to not be in that position, and can rest easy knowing Geelong have got whatever they're doing under control.

Not always of course, but most of the time...and that's as much as you can ask for.

Plus, we're also not employed professionals 24/7 like they are.

It takes a pretty big ego to think you know better than someone who's employed in an area of expertise when you're not, regardless of the profession.

I know disagreeing with them on an internet forum is a cathartic release for some...but it really is pissing into the wind. It doesn't change anything.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

It's called trust, earned over a long period of time.

Most of the people you're referencing probably did melt over the clubs decisions once upon a time. I was the same before I signed up here.

...but after being proven wrong time and time again, they back what the club is doing until proven otherwise.

If we were St Kilda supporters, I'm sure most on here would question everything the club does, as you have no faith that they're actually going to get it right. I know I would.

Fortunately, we're lucky enough to not be in that position, and can rest easy knowing Geelong have got whatever they're doing under control.

Not always of course, but most of the time...and that's as much as you can ask for.

Plus, we're also not employed professionals 24/7 like they are.

It takes a pretty big ego to think you know better than someone who's employed in an area of expertise when you're not, no matter the profession.

I know disagreeing with them on an internet forum is a cathartic release for some...but it really is pissing into the wind. It doesn't change anything.

I understand that. I do. And I agree, the club has been trust worthy over the journey, and made minimal mistakes.
But the club isn’t perfect. Mistakes have been made. Minimal, yes. But all the same.
I will still love the club if Stengle leaves because we lowball him. I always will. I did well before the glory years. I bleed blue and white.
I just think we will make a big mistake if he leaves. And I am struggling to see how many cannot see how important he actually is to this team right now.
When the oldies retire we will need him. He is probably in our best 2-3 players right now.
I think we should be offering 800 over 5 years.
He had a shit year last year but who didn’t?

It has nothing to do with my ego mate. That’s just complete bullshit.
Just because I don’t agree with everything the club does, it doesn’t mean I have some enormous ego.
If you want to get personal that’s your problem.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Why people do not rate him and think he is easily replaced is beyond me.

I'm pretty sure you've imagined these "people"and they don't actually exist.

 

[Footy Smarts]

There’s a chance any junior can become a top 20 player in the comp, but most won’t. On average Stengle will outperform a future first round pick, and you always play the percentages.

People overate the value of draft picks all the time.

Nah playing the percentages isn't always the best choice. Stengle will outperform most draft picks. Even most top 5 draft picks. That doesn't mean he's with a top 5 pick.

The value in top 5 picks isn't from getting a very good 50-100 best player in the comp. It's the chance to get a Bontempelli, Martin, Weitering, Reid, etc that you build your team around for 10+ years. Stengle is a very good player but not in that calibre.

 

[cats_09]

The rumour of 4x $700k for Stengle seems about right. I'm happy with him as a 5th-7th best paid player but more than that seems excessive.

I've said before the contract size for Smith worries me. I'd be happy to give up any first rounder outside the top 10 for him but much more than 4x $700k and I'd pass on him too. I don't see how we can expect Holmes, Miers, Zuthrie (and Stengle) to take unders and then offer Smith $1m per year.

I'm feeling the same with our rumoured offer being around that $700k mark across 4 seasons - it doesn't feel disrespectful offer, nor one where we seem to be panicking over the rumours of what other teams could potentially offer

Another factor that surely comes into the thinking is that, yes there's signficant benefit to a team to have a to class small forward with that smart goal sense. But that can be wasted if you don't have right tools in the midfield to help feed your forward line in the first place - so it's about finding balance to how the salary cap is balanced

While Smith probably isn't the complete answer to our midfield problems we've seen this season, he could be part of the puzzle and then next year maybe it's going hard at a player like LDU to further boost the midfield

And a boost to our midfield may also be a step that can help Stengle with his game & go from being a 2 goal per game small forward to a 2.5->3 goal per game small forward, if we can get better delivery from our midfield


When trying to "pry" a player from another team, you do tend to have pay overs compared to what a player may be prepared to take to stay - so it's likely the Club is trying to find the balance between their offer for Stengle, while also trying to keep something of "war chest" for potential external recruits. But paying a stupid price salary wise to bring in a player from another club, who may not have the resume to back up the salary could easily be seen as bit of a kick in the guts to current guys

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I understand that. I do. And I agree, the club has been trust worthy over the journey, and made minimal mistakes.
But the club isn’t perfect. Mistakes have been made. Minimal, yes. But all the same.
I will still love the club if Stengle leaves because we lowball him. I always will. I did well before the glory years. I bleed blue and white.
I just think we will make a big mistake if he leaves. And I am struggling to see how many cannot see how important he actually is to this team right now.
When the oldies retire we will need him. He is probably in our best 2-3 players right now.
I think we should be offering 800 over 5 years.
He had a shit year last year but who didn’t?

It has nothing to do with my ego mate. That’s just complete bullshit.
Just because I don’t agree with everything the club does, it doesn’t mean I have some enormous ego.
If you want to get personal that’s your problem.

I agree with parts of that.
But at some point its list logic.as i pointed out other than rankine the majority of quality small fwds thesedays are later picks or rookies.
We already have a 26yo ready to go in our vfl team who could slot into the 22.

We have massive holes in our midfield, rucks and possibly replacing hawkins that we dont have at small fwd.

I want stengle to stay too but theres a scenario in which he leaves where we turn the cap into a break even at worst or a win at best, and get more list balance.

Now none of that means we should push him away (and i doubt we are) bit it doesnt mean that we should pay any price to keep him either (as some are suggesting). We should make a reasonable offer considering where our list is at.

 

[numbwombat]

I don’t see any scenario where we lose Stengle for money ATM. The Geelong “ask players to take unders for the culture and chance of success” list management philosophy was relevant when we had 10-15 AA players on the list including a few all-time club champions, AFL superstars. Who would be taking up big cap space now? Stewart, Cameron, maaaybe late-career Danger, and to a lesser extent Guthrie, Holmes, Hawkins.
Miers, Zuthrie and Jack Henry

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are good players but not breaking the bank. You still need to pay 95%-105% of the salary cap.

Even if we’re factoring in a couple of potential big trades/FAs, I don’t see it being an issue without an Oliver-calibre player (he’s the only obvious one and unlikely IMO). Pretty standard contract wrangling for a very good player I suspect, unless Tyson actually wanted to leave.

 

[Hinkley29]

The rumour of 4x $700k for Stengle seems about right. I'm happy with him as a 5th-7th best paid player but more than that seems excessive.

I've said before the contract size for Smith worries me. I'd be happy to give up any first rounder outside the top 10 for him but much more than 4x $700k and I'd pass on him too. I don't see how we can expect Holmes, Miers, Zuthrie (and Stengle) to take unders and then offer Smith $1m per year.

The salary cap in 2025 will be $17.8m, and goes up every year after that. About half a mill every year increase.

$700k per year is not even close to what he is worth. And it is definitely not excessive.

The only players on our list that should be paid more than Stengle are Cameron and Stewart. Holmes signed for less than what he is worth, Stengle is unlikely to do the same.

 

[Pollywaffle]

I would have Stengle well ahead of that group

Rankin a little more versatile, but more of a knob perhaps

 

[Hinkley29]

I agree with parts of that.
But at some point its list logic.as i pointed out other than rankine the majority of quality small fwds thesedays are later picks or rookies.
We already have a 26yo ready to go in our vfl team who could slot into the 22.

We have massive holes in our midfield, rucks and possibly replacing hawkins that we dont have at small fwd.

I want stengle to stay too but theres a scenario in which he leaves where we turn the cap into a break even at worst or a win at best, and get more list balance.

Now none of that means we should push him away (and i doubt we are) bit it doesnt mean that we should pay any price to keep him either (as some are suggesting). We should make a reasonable offer considering where our list is at.

That 26 year old in the vfl has played less than 5 afl games in his life.

The drop off from Stengle to Mannagh is massive. At the end of this season, Stengle will be a 2xAA in the last three years. Mannagh will have played less than 10 games.

And oh yeah, Stengle is younger.

It would be like someone saying “it is ok if we cut Cameron loose, we have got shannon Neale who can take his place. No problems”

 

[Cursed Cat]

I think you’ll find that those people agree with everything the club does.
If we threw money at him they would agree he’s worth it.
If we lowball him and he leaves they will also agree.
The club can do no wrong in some peoples eyes.
I also think it will be a disaster if we were to lose him.
If we didn’t have him this year we would be a couple of wins less than what we are now.
He’s very important.
As I’ve said previously, you do everything you can do keep your best players.

I've said a few times this season that 2024 is the first time my 12yo daughter has taken a genuine interest in the game.

She will sit and watch an entire game with me nowadays.
It is incredibly annoying.
She yaps away the entire time while I am stressing out, making inane observations and suggestions (''why doesn't he just kick it!?!?''), and asks a millions questions.

But like the Saint I am, I have fostered her growing interest with patience despite our mixed results over the past few weeks - and of course her growing passion for the game reminds me of a time when I was younger and less cynical and jaded myself.

Her favourite player is Tyson Stengle.
My daughter has been playing for a local club for two seasons now, she's pretty decent; wears #18 on her back as a tribute.

I broke the news to her a week or so ago that Stengle might be going to play for another club and she burst into tears.
She is not usually a particularly emotional kid, either.

I did my best to explain the nuances of Stengle's situation; a little of his background as I understand it; the truncated earning capacity of an AFL footballer, the fact that he would always be a Geelong Premiership player.

She was pretty inconsolable.

Didn't want a bar of my long-winded spiel about the Geelong players I have seen come and go in my time following the club:
Greg Williams (and Bernard Toohey. David Bolton too!).
Leigh Colbert.
Gary Ablett jr.
Hell, losing both of Robert Scott and Sean Denham was a huge blow in my eyes back in the day.

I explained to her that the club is bigger than the individual. Always.

And yet.

Even after all these years it still stings when talented players jump ship.

And there aren't many more talented and entertaining players than Tyson Stengle.

Personally, if I were managin' our list - well, we'd be stuffed.
But I would pony up a little more than what has been reported as being our offer to Tyson.
I'd probably go as high as 800k, for 5 years. A risk by Geelong list management standards, no doubt. But he's a match-winner, and there aren't many of them in the competition.

The Cats low-balling Greg Williams in 1985 is probably the great list management stuff-up by this club in my time.
Gary Ablett jr jumping ship was miraculously nullified by the 2011 flag, but the defection of Greg Williams played out over a depressing period of years, culminating in that horrific 1995 GF. All for a few lousy dollars.

I'll be following up with my kid in the next few days, probably while we watch the Geelong vs Carlton game together - I reckon Stengle's gonna go, bub.
Might keep her quiet for a quarter or two, anyway.

 

[AM]

I take a different view from many on Stengle. There wasn't a queue for his services after his poor track record. We gave him a chance in arguably the best environment for him. He's essentially given us just 2½ years.

If Gullan is right we've offered him 4 years @ $700k. Fair value in my book. The other offers are supposed to be $800k. Take out tax and it's not a gigantic difference.

I reckon it's ordinary if he bails if that is the equation. Loyalty isn't big for him in my book.

There's no reason why he can't live in Melbourne if that's the issue. Players have done that before.

Of course, different if the wage disparity was larger.

 

[strauchnyy]

It would be a disaster if we lose Stengle. He’s not replaceable.

For those saying it’s fine, we got him for free so we don’t lose anything is flawed. The cost is what we miss out on with him not there. Huge hole.

The pick will be around 13-18 after academy picks (assuming band 1). Not great return. If we were bottom 5, band 1 would be more palatable.

If we then traded for Smith it’s the best of a bad situation. But there is a risk that the dogs’ eyes will light right up when we have 2 x firsts and they may do a GWS (like with Cameron) and ask for both.

Best result is we keep Stengle and get smith for our single first.

 

[moond0g]

Nah playing the percentages isn't always the best choice. Stengle will outperform most draft picks. Even most top 5 draft picks. That doesn't mean he's with a top 5 pick.

The value in top 5 picks isn't from getting a very good 50-100 best player in the comp. It's the chance to get a Bontempelli, Martin, Weitering, Reid, etc that you build your team around for 10+ years. Stengle is a very good player but not in that calibre.

I understand what you’re saying, although as we’ve seen with danger and Cameron there are other ways to acquire that elite talent.

But there’s also no way we get a top 5 pick for him. And there’s a big difference between pick 5 and pick 12 (or 19). So if we can flip the pick for Smith, maybe it’s not so bad. But if we are using a pick in the teens we’re far more likely than not to select someone worse than Stengle.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It would be a disaster if we lose Stengle. He’s not replaceable.

For those saying it’s fine, we got him for free so we don’t lose anything is flawed. The cost is what we miss out on with him not there. Huge hole.

The pick will be around 13-18 after academy picks (assuming band 1). Not great return. If we were bottom 5, band 1 would be more palatable.

If we then traded for Smith it’s the best of a bad situation. But there is a risk that the dogs’ eyes will light right up when we have 2 x firsts and they may do a GWS (like with Cameron) and ask for both.

Best result is we keep Stengle and get smith for our single first.

It won't be a disaster, and everybody is replaceable.

Tone down the fear mongering. You can be disappointed without putting ample mayo on the situation.

It might not happen right away, but it'll happen in time. The club will always be bigger than one person.

By all reports, we're giving Tyson a reasonable deal, and may even up our offer over the coming months.

If he takes it, awesome. If he doesn't, good luck to him.

After Tim Kelly & Gary Ablett Junior...I would have thought we'd learned the difference between a disappointing departure, and a full blown disaster.

If the joint didn't burn down when they left (quite the opposite really) I'd say we'll be fine yet again.

If those examples are anything to go by....we may even benefit, and quickly. Keep your powder dry, nothing's happened yet.

 

[cats_09]

I agree with parts of that.
But at some point its list logic.as i pointed out other than rankine the majority of quality small fwds thesedays are later picks or rookies.
We already have a 26yo ready to go in our vfl team who could slot into the 22.

We have massive holes in our midfield, rucks and possibly replacing hawkins that we dont have at small fwd.

I want stengle to stay too but theres a scenario in which he leaves where we turn the cap into a break even at worst or a win at best, and get more list balance.

Now none of that means we should push him away (and i doubt we are) bit it doesnt mean that we should pay any price to keep him either (as some are suggesting). We should make a reasonable offer considering where our list is at.

And when watching the VFL, it does seem like Mannagh is being "groomed" to play a similar role to what we see from Stengle

Don't think anyone wants to lose Stengle, but feels like the club may have plans in place should that happen

 

[Hinkley29]

It won't be a disaster, and everybody is replaceable.

Tone down the fear mongering. You can be disappointed without putting ample mayo on the situation.

It might not happen right away, but it'll happen in time. The club will always be bigger than one person.

By all reports, we're giving Tyson a reasonable deal, and may even up our offer over the coming months.

If he takes it, awesome. If he doesn't, good luck to him.

After Tim Kelly & Gary Ablett Junior...I would have thought we'd learned the difference between a disappointing departure, and a full blown disaster.

If the joint didn't burn down when they left (quite the opposite really) I'd say we'll be fine yet again.

If those examples are anything to go by....we may even benefit, and quickly. Keep your powder dry, nothing's happened yet.

You could argue with some merit that losing Ablett cost us at least 1 premiership. And maybe more.

Add him to our 2013 team and do you reckon we win the flag? I certainly do. 2016 would have made a huge difference also. We win at least 1 of them if he is in our side. He was the best player in the comp at that stage and one of the greatest players of all time.

Of course that is in a vacuum and we don’t know who would have been squeezed out if he stayed, etc, etc, parallel universe and all those kinds of things.

But in isolation it is very easy to argue that losing Ablett was a hammer blow to the club, even though we managed to stay strong after he left.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Tommy is so gracious, yet on that interview, Stengle is going

 

[FootyLad0]

Tommy is so gracious, yet on that interview, Stengle is going

I think pretty much everyone expects it now. Tyson is maximising his earning potential and you can't blame him...

That's why i'm pushing for Saints or Dons to do it.
They'll pay the most and that nets us a First Round compo pick and i can still support him because i don't dislike either of those teams lol

Swing that to Dogs for Bailey Smith, draft another good young player with our own pick.
Boom, we've lost a gun young player in a position we are stacked in (bring Mannagh in as replacement) and gain a gun player in a position of need while restocking youth.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

"Davies-Uniacke looms as one of the biggest names in the game set to come off-contract next year, with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

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30

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18.4

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4.0

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12.0

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5.8

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6.2

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2.0

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, Oscar Allen

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Oscar Allen

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26

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No current season stats available

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5.8

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3.8

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2.0

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, Andrew Brayshaw

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Andrew Brayshaw

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3.3

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6.0

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2.6

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0.8

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, Chad Warner

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0.0

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7.0

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4.5

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2.5

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1.5

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and Tom Lynch each having decisions to make on their next deals over the coming 18 months."
https://www.zerohanger.com/north-me...following-recent-links-afl-trade-news-151780/

Any other possibilities there?

 

[FootyLad0]

"Davies-Uniacke looms as one of the biggest names in the game set to come off-contract next year, with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Oscar Allen, Andrew Brayshaw, Chad Warner and Tom Lynch each having decisions to make on their next deals over the coming 18 months."
https://www.zerohanger.com/north-me...following-recent-links-afl-trade-news-151780/

Any other possibilities there?

Bryashaw apparently isn't happy at Dockers, is a Melbourne kid as is his partner Lizzie Stock (maybe she wants to go Home to family? Usually a big reason players move) and would be an immediate upgrade to our midfield. Not to mention only 24 years old.

We tried to get Gus Brayshaw a few years ago and there was a lot of interest there before he re-signed with Dees, wouldn't be surprised at all if we go after Andrew.