Goal Analysis for 2017

[Cobbler]

This season we averaged 71.5 points a game. The top 4 scoring teams combined averaged 106 points a game.

Not taking behinds into consideration this is an alarming 12 goals to 18 goals difference. A 6 goal per game differential which over 22 rounds equates to an even more remarkable 132 more goals!

The top 4 scoring teams averaged 396 goals of which an average of 183 goals were kicked by their top 5 goal scorers.

My question is basic. Let's assume we become a top 4 goal scoring side. What is the break up of how our 183 goals from our top 5 goal scorers is going to look.

I'll have first crack:

Walters - 48
Yarran - 40
Fyfe - 35
McCarthy - 35
Apeness - 25

 

[go_the_dockers]

This season we averaged 71.5 points a game. The top 4 scoring teams combined averaged 106 points a game.

Not taking behinds into consideration this is an alarming 12 goals to 18 goals difference. A 6 goal per game differential which over 22 rounds equates to an even more remarkable 132 more goals!

The top 4 scoring teams averaged 396 goals of which an average of 183 goals were kicked by their top 5 goal scorers.

My question is basic. Let's assume we become a top 4 goal scoring side. What is the break up of how our 183 goals from our top 5 goal scorers is going to look.

I'll have first crack:

Walters - 48
Yarran - 40
Fyfe - 35
McCarthy - 35
Apeness - 25

You need to take out the goals by Pav, Ballas, Taberner, Mayne and who ever else is not playing.

That is 80 or 90 goals roughly gone.

 

[Cobbler]

You need to take out the goals by Pav, Ballas, Taberner, Mayne and who ever else is not playing.

That is 80 or 90 goals roughly gone.

Doesn't change the analysis.

Still need to find 5 players who can kick a combined 183 goals. That's based on the top 4 scoring teams.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Doesn't change the analysis.

Still need to find 5 players who can kick a combined 183 goals. That's based on the top 4 scoring teams.

Ahh, my bad. I thought you were implying we need to score 183 goals more a year to be a top 4 scoring team.

We are 6 goals a game or 135 goals a year behind the crows.

 

[Cobbler]

Ahh, my bad. I thought you were implying we need to score 183 goals more a year to be a top 4 scoring team.

We are 6 goals a game or 135 goals a year behind the crows.

Yep. We're also short about 400 points (65 goals for the year) from scoring what would be considered competitive totals. That would probably be step 1, but I thought I'd just go for the top 4 in scoring.

We likely need break out seasons in 3-4 players!

 

[mightymouse75]

Better start practicing. Yes mayne we are looking at you

 

[wayToGo_]

Need to also take into account the supply. On average we had about 10 less inside 50s per game over the top teams. Even with our ordinary inside 50 efficiency and goal accuracy, that's a few extra goals per game right there.

 

[Belnakor]

Better start practicing. Yes mayne we are looking at you

he'll be at another club so how much he practices doesn't really matter to me

 

[PapaJ]

This season we averaged 71.5 points a game. The top 4 scoring teams combined averaged 106 points a game.

Not taking behinds into consideration this is an alarming 12 goals to 18 goals difference. A 6 goal per game differential which over 22 rounds equates to an even more remarkable 132 more goals!

The top 4 scoring teams averaged 396 goals of which an average of 183 goals were kicked by their top 5 goal scorers.

My question is basic. Let's assume we become a top 4 goal scoring side. What is the break up of how our 183 goals from our top 5 goal scorers is going to look.

I'll have first crack:

Walters - 48
Yarran - 40
Fyfe - 35
McCarthy - 35
Apeness - 25

I'd be stoked if McCarthy can kick 35 goals the year coming. I still reckon he's going to take a good few weeks to really get up to speed - and even that might be optimistic. So if he can do 2/3 of a season at say a bit over 1.5 goals a game (which is pretty good average for a mobile type fwd), that's 25 odd goals. I'd be happy with that.

On the other hand, you don't have Bennell there. He is also a proven goal scorer and will likely be played on the offensive side of the park - he'd be good for 20 a season ... if fit of course. Unlike McCarthy, he's actually contracted to play for us next year so that will help our scoring prospects too.

 

[Kenny_01]

McCarthy 40
Yarran 40
Fyfe 40
Walters 40
Apeness 40

 

[sportsmaniac89]

I'd honestly be happy for us to just kick more goals than this year.

16th for points scored (227 goals 212 behinds)

I'd like this to move at least 5 places in the right direction

So based on this year, we need another 50 goals to achieve that.

To play along with the premise of the thread

Walters 40
Yarran 38
McCarthy 35
Fyfe 35
Bennell (if he actually gets onto the park) 30

I'm aware that doesn't add up to 183 (adds up to 178) but I'd rather an even spread of goalscorers than 1 stand out.

 

[FreoRicci]

Can we have a forward line of :

Walters, Taberner, Yarran
McCarthy, Apeness, Weller/De luca

I know not many rate Tabs but look at the top 8 forward lines.

West coast:
Hill, Darling, Le cras
Cripps, Kennedy, Lycett (resting ruck)

Adelaide:
Betts, Walker, McGovern
Cameron, Jenkins, Lynch

Sydney:
Parker, Franklin, Rohan
Marsh, Tippett, Heeney

If we re playing Apeness, then can see him as the second ruckman role much like Tippett/Jenkins/Lycett. Forward lines have 2 talls, 1 mid tall, plus 1-2 smalls. Think having Tabs/Apeness as leading forward, benefits McCarthy greatly in that he has the 3rd defender much like Lynch/Darling. Yarran provides the mid tall as well. The highest scoring teams- Adelaide and GWS- benefit greatly from having two genuine talls with a floating ruck/forward. Plus have elite smalls in Betts and Greene, made the AA, which Walters is definitely capable of.

Freo have had trouble for a few seasons with Mayne having to cope with the second best defender plus a hugely ineffective Clarke. As least with Apeness he can really hurt the packs and provide contested marking with Tabs (who particularly improved greatly. Plus this enables the mids to lower their eyes and kick on the lead. That's another tactic that needs to be limited, kicking long and bombing to packs.

 

[PurpleEyes]

Sydney the team on top of the ladder have only one player who has kicked 30 or more goals this season ... Buddy Franklin with 74 goals.
Sydney are also the best defensive team by some margin with an average of only 66.77 points scored against per game. Freo have averaged 96.31 points per game scored against.

So ... I could just as easily argue Freo need to improve their defence by 5 goals every game.

It's very easy to just focus on goal kicking forwards, but Freo's problems this year were much bigger than just that. As mentioned by wayToGo_, improve your i50s and that translates to more goals. For example, just a quick look at the difference between having Fyfe and Bennell fully fit for 22 games, instead of playing Weller and Blakely. The typical combined season numbers for a fit Bennell and Fyfe are about 45 goals, 175 i50s, 35 Goal assists, versus about 15 goals, 105 i50s, 15 goal assists (for Weller & Blakely combined). That roughly translates to about 65-70 extra goals in a season or about 3 goals per game difference. Don't get me wrong here, I'm not trying to make the argument that Fyfe and Bennell's returns should push out Weller and Blakely from the starting 22 in 2017, but people need to give more respect to the difference between playing your class players versus developing youth.

 

[mightymouse75]

2017 goals for 2017. Literally

 

[Cobbler]

I'd honestly be happy for us to just kick more goals than this year.

16th for points scored (227 goals 212 behinds)

I'd like this to move at least 5 places in the right direction

So based on this year, we need another 50 goals to achieve that.

To play along with the premise of the thread

Walters 40
Yarran 38
McCarthy 35
Fyfe 35
Bennell (if he actually gets onto the park) 30

I'm aware that doesn't add up to 183 (adds up to 178) but I'd rather an even spread of goalscorers than 1 stand out.

You could just give them all one more goal then

 

[Admiral Byng]

I was looking through the end of season stats on FinalSiren's website a few days ago. Thing I noticed (but didn't think it worth a new thread) was how few goals our mids contributed this year. The last few seasons our mids have mostly got an average of double figures each for season (say around 10-15), this year none of them did except Weller.

We need to get them having more shots at goal I think* - they should be free to have a shot at goal from just around the 50 arc instead of looking to centre the ball to a pack 15-25m out every single time. Hill, Mundy, D Pearce can all make the distance easy.

(*sorry for the playing broken record once again)

 

[mightymouse75]

Ape to go ape and kick 100

 

[Allikat]

If McCarthy's fit when (lol if) he gets to the club, he'll kick 50 next year.

 

[wayToGo_]

Our forward line is too inexperienced so I can't see us seriously kicking Adelaide' volumes of goals next year but I think we'll make progress toward both it and becoming more competitive:

INCREASE SCORING

• Adding Sandilands, Fyfe and a fit Mundy, together with a new and improved Neale to the centre bounces and stoppages should make our midfield win the ball and increase clearances and therefore inside 50 entries.
• Above should also mean less pressure on Stephen Hill to win the ball and therefore more effective kicks inside 50. Hopefully we also learn to use all our outside mids (Tucker, Sheridan, DPearce and perhaps BHill) to get more effective delivery. All this should result in more shots on goal.
• A more balanced and structured (6-man) forward line with 2-3 talls, 2 mediums and 1-2 smalls should share the load more than in recent years resulting in less fatigue, multiple viable targets, more marks inside 50 and better goal accuracy.
• All of the above should hopefully also give our mids (and half backs) more space and opportunity to kick goals themselves. Obviously Fyfe and Bennell but also the Hill(s), Sheridan, Neale, Crozier and Weller.

REDUCING SCORES AGAINST (AND TURNING DEFENCE INTO ATTACK)

• Midfield pressure! Surely the real key to rebound football is pressuring those kicks to the forward line. If it comes in slightly off, it gives such an advantage to our defenders to hopefully intercept or worst case spoil. This is why the best teams can play under sized defenders without getting reamed by the monster forwards. If that pressure is off, it all falls in a heap though.
• Playing 6 rebounding defenders that have a good mix of interceptors, runners, kickers and negators. The more flexible the better imo.
• Have a dedicated kick-in specialist who won't turn the ball over during kick-ins and give us the best chance of clearing the ball outside 50 without it bouncing straight back in.
• Support from the midfield rather than stealing from the forward line. Sandi, Fyfe, Mundy and Neale are all good at dropping back to assist.
• Keep more structure across the ground. So less flooding. Crowding the defensive 50 might make it more difficult to score but also makes it close to impossible to get the ball out of there.

Do all that and I think we'll score more, get scored against less, and within a couple of years we probably will be on same level as those top teams for scoring. Predicting Yarran, Walters and McCarthy are the most likely to kick bags of goals. But if Tabs, Apeness, Bennell and Fyfe all kick 25+ we'll be in much better shape than we were this year.

 

[Freomaniac]

This season we averaged 71.5 points a game. The top 4 scoring teams combined averaged 106 points a game.

Not taking behinds into consideration this is an alarming 12 goals to 18 goals difference. A 6 goal per game differential which over 22 rounds equates to an even more remarkable 132 more goals!

The top 4 scoring teams averaged 396 goals of which an average of 183 goals were kicked by their top 5 goal scorers.

My question is basic. Let's assume we become a top 4 goal scoring side. What is the break up of how our 183 goals from our top 5 goal scorers is going to look.

I'll have first crack:

Walters - 48
Yarran - 40
Fyfe - 35
McCarthy - 35
Apeness - 25

I am glad you started a post like this...

Last year freo were top of the ladder and averaged 84 points a game or 12 goals and 12 behinds

 

[Freomaniac]

I did a realistic view next year. I predict freo will kick 1936 points next year or 88 points a game.

I also predict freo will kick 286 goals or exactly 13 goals a game. Then average 10 behinds a game to bring it to 88 points.

of those 13 goals, 8 of those will be kicked from the forward line. 8 goals a game by 22 equals 176 goals.

So to share that around 5 guys is possible.

Walters: 44 goals
Mccarthy: 36 goals
Tabs: 30 goals
Ballantyne : 30 goals
Yarran : 36 goals

5 goals a game come from the midfield and kick 110 goals all up.

Fyfe: 25 goals
Bennell: 25 goals
neale, mundy, weller and stephen hill all kick 15 goals each.

 

[schnoods]

I dont see Apeness being a focal forward, more of a drifiting resting ruck, a bit of a Kurt Tippett type player, he will be able to snag a few marks on occasion but I'd like to see him more as a target to get the ball to ground for a 3-4 smalls than a pack marker (being constantly outnumbered).

X factor will be Bennell and Yarran with Walters up forward, Taberner to play a Nick Riewoldt type role and run up the field to mark whilst running his direct opponent ragged.

As cheesy as it sounds, the forwards only have to make do with their structures and create a contest. The midfield is what will help our forwards more than anything else, a laces out pass on the lead is something Freo have only produced in 2 games this season, that said my prediction

Walters - 38
Tabener- 34
Yarran - 30
Bennell - 30
McCarthy - 21

Just got a inkling that we will resort to a 2015 and prior style with more of a running style going forward with an open forward line with quick players there and with defensive pressure and a spare man back.

 

[Bicco]

Ape to go ape and kick 100

First thing I would be doing at the club is contacting Tony Lockett. Pay him $10k for a two week stint coaching Ape and others on some of the finer points of goal kicking.
We've even got Modra as an alumni we can call on.
GWS had Brereton fly up once a week/fortnight to give the young forwards coaching.
Can't possibly see how this action would hurt.

 

[mightymouse75]

Modra, now he liked to kick a goal.

 

[wayToGo_]

Modra, now he liked to kick a goal.

Based on what I saw at the EJ Legends game, we might have to pay extra baggage allowance to fly him over every week/fortnight. From kicking goals to eating rolls (sausage ones that is). Good on him.