Good article in the Sun

[whelan=legend]

Sure to cause some debate around here

• MELBOURNE won't win more than four games this year.A) It is probably not good enough. B) It can't afford to.

The Demons have a golden opportunity this season to take back what was snatched by Carlton in Round 22, 2007.
Having won only three games in 2008, Melbourne will qualify for a pre-draft priority choice if it wins four or less this season.
As long as the Demons - who are 1-4 - finish on the bottom as well, picks No. 1 and No. 2 will come their way in this year's draft.
Former recruiter Neville Stibbard already sees two standouts: Dandenong midfielder Tom Scully and Gippsland key forward John Butcher.
The potential Scully/Butcher package is an enormous prize, given the AFL is about to enter an era of drafts compromised by concessions to new clubs Gold Coast and West Sydney.
Stibbard, who worked at North Melbourne, Fitzroy and South Melbourne across 22 years, is adamant the Demons should absorb some short-term pain for what could be a Hawthorn-style rebuild and tilt at a flag.
"I know you can't talk about tanking, but you wouldn't want to win more than four because you're going to miss the prize," Stibbard said.
"Scully, out of all of them, is an elite midfielder. Really elite.
"If they get Scully and Butcher, they're going to have a sustained period of success.
"With Jack Watts and what they've got coming though, they are looking good.
"Their midfield should be pretty good with Scully in it, and get Butcher and Watts up forward and they should be set up for a long time.
"Again, I know you can't talk about tanking, but it's better off finishing last than 10th."
Stibbard made similar comments on Melbourne in the Crystal Ball chapter of this year's AFL Prospectus.
"Expected to play their youngsters this year and suffer short-term pain," he wrote of Melbourne.
Nobody is saying Melbourne's players won't be trying. The fact is, we're talking about smart list management.
Under AFL rules, any team that wins less than five matches in a season receives a "freebie" pick between rounds one and two of the draft.
If a team has two successive years of less than than five wins, it is eligible for a choice before the first round.
Melbourne can hit the jackpot this year without complications. Cruelly, it played Carlton in the final round of 2007 and the Blues needed to lose more.
The Demons won a strangely free-flowing contest, taking them to five wins, which cost them a priority pick.
Carlton's loss ensured it stayed on four wins and sealed a priority at the start of the draft for successive poor years.
The Blues took Matthew Kreuzer with that pick and used No. 3 to get Chris Judd. Not a single Carlton fan is ruing that Round 22 loss now.
Had Melbourne lost, it would have qualified to take both Jack Watts and Nicholas Naitanui in last year's draft.
The Scully/Butcher package may just match that this season. Scully played eight games for Dandenong in the TAC Cup last year as a bottom-age player and averaged 27 disposals a game.
Butcher, 197cm, booted 11 goals for Vic Country in the under-18 championships last year, despite missing a match, second only to Watts.
Drooling already, Demons fans?

Yes. Yes I am.

 

[saj_21]

Sure to cause some debate around here

Yes. Yes I am.

I would wish those "journalists" would get over the round 22 game against Carlton, they only way we could of lost that game is if we refused to turn up and forfeited. We all know the doggies game were dutchy holland kicked 5 hurt us in the long run.

I don;t think at any stage we will tank this year, we have a few injuries already, we are struggling the best option is to play the kids. I do not doubt at all, that the players will try their best week in week out, but their best will not match it with the rest.

 

[Andy_Mac]

A good read.

Here’s a Friday fun one:

What is the AFL's official definition of the priority pick.

Assuming it is as simple as 5 wins or less. Technically you could win a flag and still get a priority pick??

ie win 4, draw the remaining 18 matches finishing the season on a 52 points (equivalent to 13 wins) so well in the 8, start smashing your way through sides in September and the flag is yours.

 

[richskee]

 

[omit]

point a is reasonable even if i don't like it. as for point b though

if Melbourne decide they aren't going to win more than 4 games this year and in doing so tank a few games. i will storm into Jimmys' office, throw my flaming membership card at him and demand back all the money i donated to Debt demolition, demon heartland and a refund for this years membership and all my previous memberships

 

[Leper Messiah]

A good read.

Here’s a Friday fun one:

What is the AFL's official definition of the priority pick.

Assuming it is as simple as 5 wins or less. Technically you could win a flag and still get a priority pick??

ie win 4, draw the remaining 18 matches finishing the season on a 52 points (equivalent to 13 wins) so well in the 8, start smashing your way through sides in September and the flag is yours.

I'm pretty sure its 16 premiership points or less, so if we win 4 and draw one that would make us ineligible for the pp.

 

[00Stinger]

There is no guarantee that either players who get drafted 1 and 2 will be superstars, so we should just try to win as many possible.

On another note I don't know if its just me but I'm getting this feeling that Strauss will end up like Molan. A highly rated player from a super draft gets a career defining injury. I hope I am wrong

 

[Henry_Hill]

i will storm into Jimmys' office, throw my flaming membership card at him and demand back all the money i donated to Debt demolition, demon heartland and a refund for this years membership and all my previous memberships

thats what i'll be doing if we WIN 5 games.

 

[Beats]

I'm pretty sure its 16 premiership points or less, so if we win 4 and draw one that would make us ineligible for the pp.

It's less than 16.5 points in a year.

 

[davey_magik]

I wonder what the players would rather do....

 

[The Dr]

There is no guarantee that either players who get drafted 1 and 2 will be superstars, so we should just try to win as many possible.

On another note I don't know if its just me but I'm getting this feeling that Strauss will end up like Molan. A highly rated player from a super draft gets a career defining injury. I hope I am wrong

How did you come to this conclusion?

 

[RPetterd15]

Strauss only injured his ankle and he was out for 2-3 weeks. it doesn't sound like a career defining injury to me.

 

[omit]

thats what i'll be doing if we WIN 5 games.

if you don't want Melbourne to win go and support another club

 

[Supermercado]

I like how just finishing last isn't enough for some. You've got to really humiliate the whole club at the same time.

Why stop as this year? The priority would surely come before GC in the draft next year. Let's throw that season as well. Then the next one. Then we should theoretically have the best team ever invented.

 

[KTLK]

We all know Melbourne won't make the finals this year.

We all know Melbourne won't win the flag this year.

Then why not grab Pick 1 & 2 (Butcher & Scully) before GC comes in to the market?

This year, aim for Pick 1 & 2 while MFC isn't good enough to win games (I mean NOT tanking). Then, next year onwards "yes" aim for WINS.

I dont want to see MFC win 6 games, 7 games, 5 games etc on a yearly basis without making the finals - simply back to 1965 - 1986. That is, 23 years without making the finals. I can't wait for another 23 years while we aim for 5, 6, 7, 8 etc meaningless wins without any success.

Player of Pick 1 & 2 makes difference and atleast will push the club into finals and have a good crack at the flag.

 

[Deefolt]

We all know Melbourne won't make the finals this year.

We all know Melbourne won't win the flag this year.

Then why not grab Pick 1 & 2 (Butcher & Scully) before GC comes in to the market?

This year, aim for Pick 1 & 2 while MFC isn't good enough to win games (I mean NOT tanking). Then, next year onwards "yes" aim for WINS.

I dont want to see MFC win 6 games, 7 games, 5 games etc on a yearly basis without making the finals - simply back to 1965 - 1986. That is, 23 years without making the finals. I can't wait for another 23 years while we aim for 5, 6, 7, 8 etc meaningless wins without any success.

Player of Pick 1 & 2 makes difference and atleast will push the club into finals and have a good crack at the flag.

Because unless you can guarantee me that they will be as good as Gary ablett jnr and snr, then what is the point. You don't know, i know it has been said before but look at tambling and to a lesser extent (so far) sylvia. Really good top drafts they were...

 

[omit]

ktlk - 65-86 is completely different. there was no draft back in those days and we could only get players through zones and f/s. which of course meant the rich clubs could afford to buy players by moving talented kids into their recruiting zone.

picks don't ensure success. purposefully loosing games does not ensure success, it is in fact rather counter productive.

we don't even get picks 1 and 2 if we win less than 4 games. we have to come last as well. do you really want that? another bloody spoon. because i'm pretty sure we have enough of those as is

 

[chopper41]

I'm right in the middle of this tanking thing. Don't want to lose, but want picks 1 & 2. The thing is i'm pretty confident well get those picks with trying to anyway.

 

[omit]

I'm right in the middle of this tanking thing. Don't want to lose, but want picks 1 & 2. The thing is i'm pretty confident well get those picks with trying to anyway.

i'd love to win a grand final and get picks 1 and 2 in the same season. but it's never going to happen

 

[Beats]

Because unless you can guarantee me that they will be as good as Gary ablett jnr and snr, then what is the point. You don't know, i know it has been said before but look at tambling and to a lesser extent (so far) sylvia. Really good top drafts they were...

You don't need to guarantee a star, but you'd at least be expecting a best 22 player of a top pick. Sylvia and Tambling are both 22 players at their clubs.
And before you use an argument such as Sylvia + Tambling, you realise we are talking about 2 top 5 picks here?
In Tambling's year another top 5 pick would have netted you Deledio, Roughead, Griffen or Franklin.
In Sylvia's (which is widely acknowledged as one of the weakest draft years ever) another top 5 pick could have got you Cooney or Mclean.

There is a much higher chance of picking up a star than a spud with a top 5 pick, and you have to back your recruiters in to pick the best players.

 

[AFL is Number One]

The article is a very good read and a reminder of the dumb wins against Footscray and Carlton that year. We should have got Naitanui and Watts.

Big deal we won against those 2 teams. It was dumb...just dumb.

Short term thinking at its best. We should have thought big picture.

What did those 2 wins achieve ? Bugger all.

Hopefully this year we don't make the same mistakes.

" No More Than 4"