Half Year Review

[Kangaroos4eva]

The market is already out - Hawks are $1.35 Roos $3.00. That may change - but I would be suprised if they drift out to $1.55,

Their latest form has been great, so we're being flattered atm.

 

[Phillyroo]

The market is already out - Hawks are $1.35 Roos $3.00. That may change - but I would be suprised if they drift out to $1.55,

I agree, won't change a lot... Woweeee, I think that is super value.

 

[Wild Bill]

I agree, won't change a lot... Woweeee, I think that is super value.

I think it depends on how many of their good players they will have back. I think Mitchell is due back the week we play them.

 

[Wells Now Williams Fan]

So we are at the half way mark so I thought I would look at our year so far and what we have for the 2nd half of the year.

Sitting at 7-4 I for one have been happy with 2014. We came into this year as a very attacking side that could not close out games. Scott has tweaked the game plan and we have a more defensive edge to us as well as being able to open teams up.

2 incredible wins V Swans in Sydney and Freo in Perth. Two teams that we have struggled to beat and two teams that can win the 2014 premiership. The Roos of 2013 would not have won these games.

The Roos are the only team to defeat Port. It was also good to win a close one and run over a side that has a reputation as fast finishers. Thumped WCE and Bris and had better 2nd halves V Dogs and Richmond.

Our 7 wins have a mixture of brilliance and grind. We have only played 2 matches V bottom 5 sides and we have 6 in the next 11.

Our losses have frustrated many - essendon the round 1 specialists got a hold of us - they are now a below average side that are always easier to beat in round 20 than round 1. Pies smashed us at the G - at least this is a decent side and when their guns are up are extremely hard to beat - Pendles, Swan and Cloke had day outs against us. Cats are a very good side at home and have won 43 of their last 45 - no shame here. The Suns game as IMO our worst loss - just came back flat from WA and they were too good on the day. They have started to slide and we will end 2014 as the better side.

As I look at our losses at the time of the games we lost 2 50/50 games - ess and pies, lost 1 as under dogs (cats)and 1 as strong favourites (suns).

We have had a much harder 1st 11 than we will with out next 11. Using advanced maths I have added the ladder positions of our 1st 11 and came up with 90 and for our next 11 134. The lower the score the harder the draw - ie Port is worth 1 point GWS 18.

We will start favs in 8 of the 11. Crows this week, Hawks and Cats are the 3 tough games we face.

We also have not had a great run with injuries. Wells, Swallow, Grima have been missed. Hopefully we get a better run in the 2nd half of the year.

I hope this thread stays positive - too many times they drift to the negative but we should be happy or at least content with 2014. We have done the hard yards to get to 7-4 - we now need to press in the 2nd half of the year. Scott and the boys have done a lot right in 2014.

I for one am excited.

Great Post Wild Bill ........

 

[Jay-Z]

See 7-4 as a figure I am not disappointed with, I'm very happy but when you look at who we have beaten and some of the loses we have had (* and GC) we should be sitting higher, but alas, would much rather have beaten the teams we have and lost to the teams we have then vice versa.

Yeah I understand many people are looking at it the same way but if we are talking about games we "should" have won than you can't ignore that we "should" have lost to Sydney and Freo. IMO it balances out and arguably even tips in the positive. Besides, *Essendon in round 1 was always a 50-50 game at best. If we played them now we would win, no doubt, but they are always up and about early and we didn't get our sh*t together during pre-season

Adding Wells, Taz, Jmac and Grima back in will be huge, just the question is who drops out for them...

Completely agree. Wells and Taz in particular are very important players for us

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

We should be grateful we didn't go four games without a win like last year. I think it was four ...

 

[Black2Blue]

If we look at the first half of the season in total, I think 7-4 is a terrific result, because:
1. We have had a bloody tough draw;
2. We have tinkered with the game plan to bring in the defensive style of play, albeit with hiccups, but it has clearly been a big part of some of the unexpected wins;
3. We have been hurt by the lengthy injuries to key players - Spitta, Wells, JMac, Tazza, and Grima - but have had terrific cover;
4. We have killed off a handful of our bogeys - interstate, big teams, wet weather

The Adelaide game is important, as it is the last of this big month of games (Cats in Catland, Eagles in Subi, Tiges with something to prove, Crows in Crowland) and would kill off one remaining bogey and bitter taste from last year, as well as set our selves up for the run to September.

The top eight looks incredibly even. with just a game separating 2nd and 8th and Port having been fortunate with copping the Hawks B-team and a few lucky breaks, as they are probably 4th best in the pecking order. The way I see it, there will be a battle for the top 3 between Sydney, Hawthorn, and Port, with Collingwood, Freo, Geelong, and us in the battle for 4th, and the Suns a likely finalist.

My final 8 prediction is:
Sydney
Hawthorn
Port
Collingwood
Freo
North
Geelong
Gold Coast

 

[Wild Bill]

If we look at the first half of the season in total, I think 7-4 is a terrific result, because:
1. We have had a bloody tough draw;
2. We have tinkered with the game plan to bring in the defensive style of play, albeit with hiccups, but it has clearly been a big part of some of the unexpected wins;
3. We have been hurt by the lengthy injuries to key players - Spitta, Wells, JMac, Tazza, and Grima - but have had terrific cover;
4. We have killed off a handful of our bogeys - interstate, big teams, wet weather

The Adelaide game is important, as it is the last of this big month of games (Cats in Catland, Eagles in Subi, Tiges with something to prove, Crows in Crowland) and would kill off one remaining bogey and bitter taste from last year, as well as set our selves up for the run to September.

The top eight looks incredibly even. with just a game separating 2nd and 8th and Port having been fortunate with copping the Hawks B-team and a few lucky breaks, as they are probably 4th best in the pecking order. The way I see it, there will be a battle for the top 3 between Sydney, Hawthorn, and Port, with Collingwood, Freo, Geelong, and us in the battle for 4th, and the Suns a likely finalist.

My final 8 prediction is:
Sydney
Hawthorn
Port
Collingwood
Freo
North
Geelong
Gold Coast

My prediction:
Hawks
Port
Cats
Swans
Freo
Pies
Roos
Essendon

This is with an 8-3 2nd half.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

I wouldn't be unhappy with that. I can imagine others would be ...

 

[Only Forwards]

My prediction:
Hawks
Port
Cats
Swans
Freo
Pies
Roos
Essendon

This is with an 8-3 2nd half.

I reckon 7th is under performing.

I picked us as top 6 at the start of the year. I believe that they can do it.

 

[Jay-Z]

If we look at the first half of the season in total, I think 7-4 is a terrific result, because:
1. We have had a bloody tough draw;
2. We have tinkered with the game plan to bring in the defensive style of play, albeit with hiccups, but it has clearly been a big part of some of the unexpected wins;
3. We have been hurt by the lengthy injuries to key players - Spitta, Wells, JMac, Tazza, and Grima - but have had terrific cover;
4. We have killed off a handful of our bogeys - interstate, big teams, wet weather

Good post. Just on the bolded bit, I did let out a chuckle when at the start of the Richmond game one of the commentators said "...and North, we're just not sure if they can win in Melbourne" (or words to that effect)... how things change in less than a year!!!

 

[Wild Bill]

I reckon 7th is under performing.

I picked us as top 6 at the start of the year. I believe that they can do it.

I have to disagree - if we win 15 games that is a good effort. That is 5 extra from 2013 and a big step in the right direction.

 

[Only Forwards]

I have to disagree - if we win 15 games that is a good effort. That is 5 extra from 2013 and a big step in the right direction.

It would be a good effort. I don't disagree with that. Finals would be awesome.

However for me it would also be less than I believe that we are capable of.

We come out and play like that third quarter and most teams are not going to be able to touch us.

We come out and play like the second and most teams are going to be able to beat us.

I want us to consistently play our higher end football in the back half of the year. We do that and just about anything is possible.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

The Win-Loss record of teams that we have played, combined: 67-54

What is to come: 47-74

 

[ThePezDispenser]

I reckon 7th is under performing.

I picked us as top 6 at the start of the year. I believe that they can do it.

There will be over half a dozen teams with 15+ wins. 6th is possible but any higher will be very difficult.

 

[Wild Bill]

There will be over half a dozen teams with 15+ wins. 6th is possible but any higher will be very difficult.

Even with 16 wins we could finish 7th. The gap between the top 7 and bottom 7 is massive this year.

 

[Phillyroo]

Even with 16 wins we could finish 7th. The gap between the top 7 and bottom 7 is massive this year.

Yep spot on.
What I love is that we could finish anywhere in the 8 and still do damage. I mean to be honest our position at the end of the H&A season is secondary to our performance in September. So how are we placed in the finals?? We MUST win the first final, then if we have to travel week 2 against a losing top 4 side, there is no team no where that scares me....

 

[abby]

Even with 16 wins we could finish 7th. The gap between the top 7 and bottom 7 is massive this year.

% will be the key, have to bury teams like St Kilda, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne and Doggies when we play them and if we lose to Hawthorn/ Geelong / Adelaide we have to get as close as possible to them and keep the loss small.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

I'd be happy just to beat Brisbane and GWS away.

 

[Phillyroo]

Playing Melb twice will be interesting.... Can we break them open and score heavily to boost % like we should?? God I hope so.

 

[Jay-Z]

% will be the key, have to bury teams like St Kilda, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne and Doggies when we play them and if we lose to Hawthorn/ Geelong / Adelaide we have to get as close as possible to them and keep the loss small.

Agree. Percentage will be a big factor come the end of the year. It's hard to judge at the moment (as different teams have strong / weak draws coming home) but as it sits, we have the 6th best percentage in the 8 with 112%. Three teams are in the 140's (Port, Sydney, Hawthorn) but are likely to be top 3 anyway. There are two teams with 120ish %s that we need to catch up to (Freo & Collingwood) and two that are behind us (Geelong and GC)

 

[Wild Bill]

Playing Melb twice will be interesting.... Can we break them open and score heavily to boost % like we should?? God I hope so.

Very hard now they have put the ultra flood on. To kick a goal in the 1st 30 seconds of the game and then 2 more for the rest of the match is terrible.

 

[Jay-Z]

Very hard now they have put the ultra flood on. To kick a goal in the 1st 30 seconds of the game and then 2 more for the rest of the match is terrible.

I agree we won't flog them like we used to (only WC have this year) but we don't need to. Low scoring games can still be very good for percentage. Sydney beat them by 31 and only conceded 38. While it was a slug fest, they still got a % of 181 from that game.

If played them next week and belted them 130-70 (10 goal win) that would boost our % by 5 points but if we beat them 70-30 (like Sydney and Collingwood have) it would still go up by 3 percentage points

 

[JZTIME!]

in regards to the OP was there a preview thread or a thread asking for predictions half way? I have no idea and could be wrong but whether it was me or not 7-4 has a real ring to it. Not sure if i have killed too many brain cells between then and now so couldn't be sure. Would be an interesting read

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Agree. Percentage will be a big factor come the end of the year. It's hard to judge at the moment (as different teams have strong / weak draws coming home) but as it sits, we have the 6th best percentage in the 8 with 112%. Three teams are in the 140's (Port, Sydney, Hawthorn) but are likely to be top 3 anyway. There are two teams with 120ish %s that we need to catch up to (Freo & Collingwood) and two that are behind us (Geelong and GC)

Sydney hitting their strides kicked the shit out of their percentage, unfortunately for them.