Preview Hawks vs Lions – Rd 13 - Sat 10th June – 1:45pm – MCG

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Intro

So first off what idiot put his hand up to do a preview where we have a bye week and the opposition is playing and their final ladder position will not be known until the result of the last game of the round? Oh yeah – this idiot!

Weather

Currently the BOM is giving mostly sunny 6-15 degrees so hopefully will be an afternoon for skill as well as desperation!

Head to Head

As those ads for switching to an industry super fund say … past performance is no guarantee of future results (while basing their whole sales pitch on how well we did in the past!) but recently our head to head results were:

Rnd 10 2022 – lost to the Hawks away 117-112 (played in Tassie)

Rnd 20 2021 – lost to the Hawks away 92-80 (played in Tassie)

Rnd 1 2020 – lost to the Hawks away 90 62 (played at the MCG … we remember that game)

Rnd 19 2019 – beat the Hawks away 60 – 87 (played in Tassie)

Rnd 11 2019 – beat the Hawks at home 85 – 66 (OMG played at the Gabba – how did that happen?)


Interestingly since 2008 we have played the Hawks at the Gabba x 4, Tassie x 12, MCG x 2) which must be an ongoing agony for Brisbane based Hawks fans and really annoy those who memory of the ‘merger’ agreement include maximising our games in Melbourne. Of course we were counted as a Melbourne side when it came to the Tassie games which never quite made ethical sense to me but there ya go.

Ok so head to head is not going to really give us anything.

Recent Form

How about recent form …

We crushed Freo, beat Carlton, hurt Essendon, embarrassed the Suns, and could have done with a bit more goal kicking practice against the Crows.

They were crushed be Freo, crushed by Melbourne, obliterated West Coast, squeaked over the Saints and got crushed by Port.

At the beginning of the year there was a strong impression that the Hawks were tanking but it appears that either the impression was wrong or they realised that no matter how hard they tried they were not going to be able to stink it up more than the Eagles or North so decided to build some culture instead.

Squiggle

Squiggle seems to think we are going to win this one currently estimating a 71 – 89 win to the Lions. We will ignore its incorrect anticipation of our win over the Crows last round at this point.

The Sacred home of football

This the first of our two (not including the GF of course) fixtured games at the MCG … the other one is against the Demons in Round 18 so it will be nice to get some practice in on the designated GF playing field (no comment about the Pies at Marvel … … …) I am sure the the fixturing dept did their very best to get us a few more games at the MCG for equity’s sake but just couldn’t manage to get it done.

Hawks Board

Checking out the Hawks board they are certainly not doom and gloom, seem happy that Sicily will be coming in and seem to have their own collection of heroes and whipping boys just like our mob and seem to think that they might just be a chance without being confident about it.

Our Ins and Outs

There seems to be a clear fan agregate that says a) that Gunston should not play and b) that there is no way that Gunston will not be playing even if it is his last game since it against his old team.

Zorko decided it was time to claw his way to a break from playing so that provides the match committee an opportunity to play.

Payne needs to come in and one or both (depending on what else happens) of Lester or Gardiner will be going out and there is the question of Rich’s place in the side as he nears the end of his career.

Berry seems to be carrying something – fixed over the bye or needs some time?

It would be nice to see Hugh on the wing, Gunston out, Rich out, Lester out, Payne in, and give the Dev, Kai etc types a go in the positions they have trained for for a few weeks and let them and us see how they go … hopefully they do a Payne on us and become integral.

Team Comparison

There is usually a part in these preview write ups about their backs vs our forwards etc etc but I don’t have the foggiest (and will happily let someone else grab the glory for that part further down the thread) except to say that, in the words of the immortal Alan Yankovic … we are great and they suck.

Sports Song

Result

The result? Of course we win … never in doubt … although I do expect them to put up a fight rather than roll over and die for us.

GO LIONS!!!
 
So good to get back to a normal week pre a game next weekend, I'm bored of talking about politics and the meaning of life, lets get back to footy.

Dare I say >

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Not what I would do but IMO the only changes will be Dayne Zorko/Darcy Gardiner out and Dev Robertson/Jack Payne in.
 
Not going to be easy, Hawks this season are pesky operators who can get a run on and slam goals quickly and given that it’s MCG (our slightly sketchy away form) we will need to be switched and play like a top 4 team, no costly lapses or missing goals!
 

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Would love a nice little training run at the MCG before our match against the Demons in a few weeks' time, have the inkling feeling however the Hawks are going to be in the game late. We seem to be their bunnies in recent time
 
Hawthorn could have gone defensive to limit the damage Port were inflicting on them yesterday, but they stayed true to themselves, counter-attacked, and had a pretty decent back end of the game - and that impressed the trousers off of me tbh.

Should win. Could be a real shootout if we indulge them. Looking forward to it.
 
I'm excited to be attending this game, it will be my first trip on a plane, my first interstate game and my first time in Melbourne. Can't wait to watch the boys at the G. Hopefully I'll be here again later this year if we are playing on grand final day.
Wow a Melbourne, plane and MCG virgin, try to sample some culinary options and have a tram ride if you have the time... enjoy it L_LXL.
 
Wow a Melbourne, plane and MCG virgin, try to sample some culinary options and have a tram ride if you have the time... enjoy it L_LXL.
Yeah it's a lot of firsts in one weekend, I'll be there from Friday - Monday and I've booked 2 days off of work for this trip so desperately hope that the boys can get the win and not underestimate the Hawks.
 
Not sure about our ins completely but thought i'd write something up to give you guys some idea.

Our team against Port was:

Hardwick, Blanck, Weddle
Impey, Frost, Scrimshaw
Amon, Newcombe, MacDonald (Connor)
Moore, Koschitzke, Butler
Breust, Lewis, Brockman
Reeves, Day, Nash
Meek, Worpel, MacDonald (Bailey), Bramble, MacKenzie (sub)

Was an interesting game against Port, got smacked all over the field in the first half, from around the ball, in the contest, on the spread, defensive structure, and when we got the ball nothing to go to forward.

An absolute spray at half time i assume, aswell as Will Day being tagged by Drew we were able to bring it back, especially in the fourth quarter, and back half of the third. Think we outscored them by 20-30 points? Only losing by 55, away. Not a horrible result.

Will Day was heavily strapped around his ribs from a training hit and it showed early in the game before going to HB to also shake a tag, hopefully he's all good for this week, he's huge for us.

Newcombe had a down game, Nash was a lone hand defensively and wasn't able to get near it offensively for the most part.

But again forwards were pretty good, Breust kicked 5, Lewis 3 and were two of our best (5.3 and 15 disposals for Breust & 3.2 with 20 disposals, 3 goal assists and 13 score inv for Lewis).

Midfielders improved, and i would assume they are the main improvers leading into this game, seeing as it's been our strength all year, from winning clearances, to scoring from them.


Changes for the game are a little tough.

Sicily comes straight back in, Jack Scrimshaw going out. Boosts our defense heaps, he's our general and captain and he's probably the 2nd most important player behind Lewis for us.

Seamus Mitchell will return from illness, he's a defensive cog for us with his run and dash, composure but also his defensive nous and speed. (A few of you might not know who he is, but he plays similarly to Adam Saad.) he'll replace the debutant Bailey MacDonald, unfortunately for him.

The others aren't confirmed till later in the week, and I'll try pop in and do some matchups for you guys later in the week to give further idea.

But Cooper Stephens (not sure anyone will know him) has been super in the 2s, so has Ned Long (had 38 disp, 12 tck, 12 cl & 3 goals only last week.) Josh Ward returned on managed minutes and was dominant aswell, so all 3 will be in the frame.

Meek was subbed out, and was poor, we could go smaller or replace him with a tall like Ramsden, or maybe one of our MSD (Brandon Ryan or Clay Tucker.)

Cam MacKenzie could return to the 22 after a very good performance as sub after being managed.


But in short

Ins:

Sicily, Seamus
Outs:
Scrimshaw, BMac

Maybe ins in order:
Ward, MacKenzie, Long, Stephens, DGB (last but would be first to replace a KPP).
Maybe outs in order:
Frost, Koschitzke/Meek, MacDonald (0 tackles although not sure).

Will reassess and try help later this week, will be interesting to see how you all view it and looking forward to reading.
 
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We slow start often - even this year.

If the team treat it like an extended gap, and maintain focus we will own the Hawks.

If the team treat it as a break and a restart we could easily lose. To anyone.

This last is a worry re the pre/finals breaks.
Finals are a different ballgame i think

But round 1 / post bye not good

2021
Round 1 spanked sydney, post bye squeak over the line v north
2022
Round 1 lucky to beat port at home, smashed b dees post bye
2023
Round 1 worst one yet!

Anything above a 5 goal win v hawks a great result against the hawks. They have had lapses but been quite competitive

Reminds me of us in 17/18, even when belted early manage to stay competitive/ win second halves

And if with a team early they prove hard to put away

So good start please lads!
 
Feel like in all of our recent encounters with Hawthorn we've made the mistake of underestimating them and allowing ourselves to play to their level.

Surely that would have to be a talking point this week to the playing group and how we usually come out of Byes playing flat.
 
Yeah it's a lot of firsts in one weekend, I'll be there from Friday - Monday and I've booked 2 days off of work for this trip so desperately hope that the boys can get the win and not underestimate the Hawks.
Hope you enjoy your visit. If you are interested in capturing a bit of Old Fitzroy can I suggest wandering the back streets looking for some traditional pubs like The Rose, the Napier, the Standard or the Union Club.
 
If we are fair dinkum and want to make a decent run at it we really shouldn’t be losing more than another 2 home and away games.This would definitely not want to be one of those.
If I had to choose 2 games that we have to lose from here and we won our rest I wouldn't mind

  • Melbourne (MCG)
  • Collingwood (Marvel)

If they were close admirable losses
 
If I had to choose 2 games that we have to lose from here and we won our rest I wouldn't mind

  • Melbourne (MCG)
  • Collingwood (Marvel)

If they were close admirable losses
I would rather we beat these 2 again, and lose 2 other random games. That will give us more confidence against other top teams, and help build the aura of our team.

Edit: just looked at our remaining draw. Tough finish to the year, with no easy beats except West Coast and (not so much) Hawthorn. Every other game we can conceivably lose, without playing terribly.
 
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Yeah really nervous about this game. Was at York Park last year and Hawthorn really came with a plan to blast through our defence, and even in the third quarter when we had them on the rack we just couldn't/didn't bury them.

Hawthorn again had more handballs than kicks on Saturday so it's a pretty clear strategy from them at the moment. The key will be our midfield and contest pressure/intensity without committing multiple players to the same ball/player, which is something we seem to do when we aren't quite there mentally.

They aren't a forward handballing team so they will certainly give us a chance to exert that pressure, which Port were able to do superbly in the first half when Hawthorn were barely able to string more than 3 disposals together at a time.

Hope Payne has come good, not even cos he makes us a better team, just for his long term well-being. The Adams situation has me very much once-bitten-twice-shy about delayed concussions.

More than anything I'd like to see us get back to being the hunter, and by that I mean clearly identifying Hawthorn strengths and weaknesses (more than I've done above!), then actively nullify and exploit them respectively.

I feel like the last 3 games we've allowed ourselves to be hunted; Essendon, Gold Coast and Adelaide all came with specific plans to combat our playing style, and we were reactionary each time.

When you are winning it's an easy trap to fall into, thinking "oh we'll just play our way", especially against lower ranked opposition, but this is why that preparation during the week is so important. Rest assured Sam Mitchell will come with a specific plan for us, so it will be a testing day for our coaches and players to see how agile we can be strategically.
 
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