Analysis Hawthorn's Drafting over the last 10 years

[Mercy Seat]

What a rubbish thread.

Most of our earlyish picks the past 10 years have been basically second round 20-30. Outside of maybe the top 10, all evidence shows that the draft is basically a lottery from then on. If you look at it from a chance point of view, we've done ok. Some good, some bad, but what you'd expect from a bunch of late picks.

I'd be far more worried if we'd had picks in the top 10 the last decade and we had the same strike rate.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I should add that 9 of our 22 2015 premiership team were drafted post 2008. That's pretty decent.

 

[threesixpio]

I should add that 9 of our 22 2015 premiership team were drafted post 2008. That's pretty decent.

Irrelevant

 

[tige19]

Irrelevant

I'm glad you learned quick.

Probably a good reason why we are mid rung hidden by stars.... anyway mate, I'm trying to pump out some kms on the treadmill and I can't help but to pop in and check on the copious amount of dribble you post #ClickBaitFein

 

[killerspud]

You're a peanut, once again blatantly lie to support your own argument. If you think all I do then is criticise the club you have rocks in your head, I consistently give credit where it's due and I openly discuss what I think we don't do well. If I think I say it, I also don't shy away from the fact we don't rule the roost in every facet of this industry.

I suggest you don't view the forum if all you want to read about is people caressing the plums of every hawthorn person ever to walk this earth.

I wouldn't touch your rancid plums if they were the only fruit left on the earth

You are all bluster and nothing else - you should find another club to support (if that's what you call it)

Also could you point out where I have lied??? All you've done is lied and then called anyone who calls you out a liar

 

[tige19]

I wouldn't touch your rancid plums if they were the only fruit left on the earth

You are all bluster and nothing else - you should find another club to support (if that's what you call it)

I love my hawks, have been my passion for decades upon decades... thanks for your advice none the less lad

 

[NICE1]

I wouldn't touch your rancid plums if they were the only fruit left on the earth

You are all bluster and nothing else - you should find another club to support (if that's what you call it)

You're a defensive little girl
If you don't want to hear opinions and negatives go create a pro Hawthorn forum.

 

[killerspud]

You're a defensive little girl
If you don't want to hear opinions and negatives go create a pro Hawthorn forum.

hahaha first he calls me a snow flake and then you call me a defensive little girl

looks like the trolls have got nothing better to do - get a life ****head

 

[Brishawk]

You're a defensive little girl
If you don't want to hear opinions and negatives go create a pro Hawthorn forum.

This is supposed to be a pro hawthorn forum....how about you go and create and anti-hawthorn board. Maybe call it bomber blitz...

 

[Hawks1994]

Are we really arguing about this again?

Drafting involves a large amount of luck; near on impossible to get it correct every single time

Not much point in dwelling on the past, the future looks in decent shape and we'll continue to build

 

[Nugett]

In the last 10 years we had the compromised drafts of Gold Coast and gws. We were also finishing high on the ladder. It was in our best interest to trade rather than to draft. With the draft picks we have had, we got good serviceable players. As with most things in life you don’t always get it right.
Players like, Stratton, Poppy, Langford, Duryea, Shoenmakers, Smith, Breust and Hill all had their moments of greatness, as well as their moments of mediocrity. No one is perfect all the time.
O’Brien has shown glimpses of being a good reliable player. it’s unfortunate that for most he was to be one of the scapegoats. Howe has shown consistency, in a tagging role, which is his role.

Sicily, Hardwick, Burton and Glass are all showing great potential to be future A graders. As for the others; Lovell, Worpel, Morrison, Brand, Cousins, Lewis ect its way too soon to call them failures, as for the most part they are still developing. That takes time, as true supporters, we need a little patience to see how they do actually fare.

I’d rather back the decisions of the club I support, that I know have the necessary tools, knowledge and experience to win us our next premiership, rather than listen to chicken little types, as they try to inflate their own ego to hide their own insecurities.

 

[flinchfree]

When we're good we're good, when we're not we're not, it's not rocket science.

We're the same team, same players.
Form fluctuates and development is development - not established form.
As such, young players that you have written off that are in their development stages must be judged as such. Players like Obrien are clearly on that precipice and you are fair to judge them as unlikely to change.
Players like Lovell are not. Players like Burto are not. Pitto not. Cuz not. Hanrahan not.
When they play well, that's showing you their abilities at upper performance. If they can do it on a semi regular basis you can hope/believe the players will find a measure of consistency at that approx level.

To blue tack your own estimation of our drafting as you watch DEVELOPMENT certainly does not rate as rocket science.

 

[Del33640]

Just prior to reading this, Geico in the US literally just raised my car insurance to AU$850 a MONTH. So I had steam coming out my ears, even before I read a page that looked like the Cats or Bombers boards.

In spite of this, I don't feel the need to run other posters down because I disagree with them, or bring partisan political views into discussions about players.

The post right above mine seems pretty fair. We'd all like to have drafted stars to replace Bud, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli and Rough when he goes.

Reality is though, we hit the jackpot with those guys, and much of the team we've had around them. That is reflected in the 4 flags we won.

How many other teams have the 4 flags, or would be happy with just one?

How many flags have GWS won with all of their young stars?

It would be nice to have recruited perfectly, and won the jackpot with every draftee. But that's not how it works, a hell of a lot of variables going on with that.

 

[KOLOKOTRONIS]

I agree with tige19 that the first rounders or earliest pics haven’t been great.

Ultimately though it hasn’t mattered. Take the three peat reload and achieve glory any way possible.

KOLOKOTRONIS

 

[threesixpio]

I agree with tige19 that the first rounders or earliest pics haven’t been great.

Ultimately though it hasn’t mattered. Take the three peat reload and achieve glory any way possible.

KOLOKOTRONIS

My point is how does one assess greatness? It is to achieve certain ends. Those ends are flags.

Did we get players who filled a roll to achieve flags? Yes. How many players? 9

How many flags? 3

I don’t see any other way of measuring it.

Given the lottery that the draft is and given it was within him the context of trading in multiple players I reckon we nailed it

 

[threesixpio]

To add our current list needs a lot of work. However, I think it was worth the ends sought - but we are now in a bit of a mess.

Sure some of those role players don’t look so good now. And I agree with Tige that some have weaknesses that were obscured by good players and now that the good players are gone some of these weaknesses are now apparent

But this doesn’t mean we drafted badly - it simply means we drafted for our needs which was to kick some mother f**king ass during the threepeat years

I’m getting a little sick of people who stick up for their club (when there are clear objective facts showing how immensely successful we have been) being labelled as not being able to be critical of their club or being stuck in the past. If Hawthorn were Carlton or the Saints I’d be ten times more critical than your Tige19s and NICE1s - but they haven’t

To suggest that we have not been incredibly smart with our trading and drafting in the last ten years is unfathomable to me

 

[Furn2]

If someone can be arsed or has the data, it would be interesting to look at what draft picks have delivered across the competition. Something like the average games you get from draft picks (picks 1-10 , picks 11-20, 21-30 etc...). I don’t know maybe the bands should be smaller at the top end of the draft and then increase as you get into the latter rounds.

Maybe Ron The Bear can help us? He has amazing historical data and I am sure I have seen similar posted elsewhere by him. If you have that data easily available and can help Ron The Bear that would be awesome and appreciated.

At least it would give some reference to the discussion.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Hey Tige19 did you start this thread or did Gralin get all sew on patch happy and start on in your guise.

 

[tige19]

We're the same team, same players.
Form fluctuates and development is development - not established form.
As such, young players that you have written off that are in their development stages must be judged as such. Players like Obrien are clearly on that precipice and you are fair to judge them as unlikely to change.
Players like Lovell are not. Players like Burto are not. Pitto not. Cuz not. Hanrahan not.
When they play well, that's showing you their abilities at upper performance. If they can do it on a semi regular basis you can hope/believe the players will find a measure of consistency at that approx level.

To blue tack your own estimation of our drafting as you watch DEVELOPMENT certainly does not rate as rocket science.

My opinion of our kids is so/so, we do have some guys that seem to have elite qualities, probably starts with Dimma,Burton and Sicily who is already one of the elite players in the league. I feel we have a batch of kids that are "possibles" in terms of being able to have long and sustainable careers, Cuz is one who should be modelling his game on Shiels, Lovell I am less optimistic about although would desperately love to see development and become an AFL footballer. Pitto I am comfortable about never being able to produce at the elite level and Hanrahan I am unsure about as I have seen him only sparingly. I think Morrison has some great qualities, he is very neat with the footy, has lovely skills and balance, his next stage of development is finding consistency in winning the footy, but I do like him.

 

[tige19]

Hey Tige19 did you start this thread or did Gralin get all sew on patch happy and start on in your guise.

Gralin is using his standing of world class mod to create a thread that I never started and have my post as the OP in the hope others have a crack at me, really pathetic.

 

[threesixpio]

Gralin is using his standing of world class mod to create a thread that I never started and have my post as the OP in the hope others have a crack at me, really pathetic.

That’s not fair Tige. He just didn’t want the Trade thread derailed. That’s said I think it’s fair to you to say that you didn’t start this thread

 

[KermitJagger]

Gralin is using his standing of world class mod to create a thread that I never started and have my post as the OP in the hope others have a crack at me, really pathetic.

You derailed a different thread down this path. Would you have rathered he deleted your comments or would you have whinged then too?

 

[threesixpio]

And don’t call me a brown nose for sticking up for Gralin!!!

 

[tige19]

To add our current list needs a lot of work. However, I think it was worth the ends sought - but we are now in a bit of a mess.

Sure some of those role players don’t look so good now. And I agree with Tige that some have weaknesses that were obscured by good players and now that the good players are gone some of these weaknesses are now apparent

But this doesn’t mean we drafted badly - it simply means we drafted for our needs which was to kick some mother f**king ass during the threepeat years

I’m getting a little sick of people who stick up for their club (when there are clear objective facts showing how immensely successful we have been) being labelled as not being able to be critical of their club or being stuck in the past. If Hawthorn were Carlton or the Saints I’d be ten times more critical than your Tige19s and NICE1s - but they haven’t

To suggest that we have not been incredibly smart with our trading and drafting in the last ten years is unfathomable to me

Can I ask something? For a guy who posts often and seems to quote me on the regular you fail to absorb the body of my posts. I actually said (multiple times to) that GW is a master with trading, he is brilliant at identifying mature talent and working on deals to get players that will help us succeed, he also (along with the recruitment team) have been shrewed in bringing in some left field talent later on in the draft, what I did raise was the fact our 1st selections (or those under the 30 mark) have been quite poor. What transpired is an avalanche or moronic twats having meltdowns that I could have such an opinion, it's utterly bizarre that my opinion can rattle so many.

 

[tige19]

That’s not fair Tige. He just didn’t want the Trade thread derailed. That’s said I think it’s fair to you to say that you didn’t start this thread

All well and good but there was others who where posting about our trading and he decided to simply use my post as the OP, he could have started the thread himself with his own OP. Anyway good on him, I was just replying to Bumps.