How many wins in 2009?

[Bluebear]

I know its early and there is SFA to talk about, so looking at the draw, how many wins do you see for 2009?

1. Richmond v Carlton MCG (N) - 50/50
2. Carlton v Brisbane Lions TD (N) - 50/50
3. Carlton v Essendon MCG (N) - win
4. Sydney v Carlton SCG - loss
5. Western Bulldogs v Carlton TD - win
6. Hawthorn v Carlton MCG - loss
7. Carlton v Fremantle C (N) - win
8. Collingwood v Carlton MCG - 50/50
9. Adelaide v Carlton AS - loss
10. Carlton v West Coast TD (N) - win
11. Brisbane Lions v Carlton G (N) - 50/50
12. Carlton v St Kilda TD (N) - 50/50
13. Essendon v Carlton MCG (N) - loss
14. Fremantle v Carlton S (T) - 50/50
15. Carlton v Richmond MCG - 50/50
16. Carlton v Sydney TD - 50/50
17. Carlton v Collingwood MCG (N) - win
18. North Melbourne v Carlton TD (N) - loss
19. Carlton v Geelong MCG (N) - loss
20. Port Adelaide v Carlton AS - 50/50
21. Carlton v Melbourne TD - win
22. Carlton v Adelaide TD - 50/50

So my take is:

• 6 definite wins
• 6 definite losses
• 10 games in dispute
• Good year: 14 to 16 wins. Good run with injuries, all young players take a big step forward.
• Bad year: 6-8 wins. Long term injuries to key players (Fev, Bower, Judd, Jammo, Murph), and/or lack of progress from younger group.

Of course the "definite" nature of any of the wins or losses is debatable.

My tip - 13 wins and sneak into the 8.

Tips?

 

[jonoman89]

13 wins minimum.

 

[phantom 309]

13 wins minimum.

I think if we can bag the first 3 then 14 is achievable

 

[blues4flag]

While I don't believe in labeling games as definite wins/losses, I would say that we're a fair chance to win in most of those games.

If you change the definite to likely, I'd agree with most. Though why would you label round 3 against Essendon at the 'G a win, yet round 13 against Essendon at the 'G a loss?

 

[Bluebear]

While I don't believe in labeling games as definite wins/losses, I would say that we're a fair chance to win in most of those games. If you change the definite to likely, I'd agree with most.

I put this line in specifically for the likes of posters like you:

Of course the "definite" nature of any of the wins or losses is debatable.

I hoped that would avoid the semantic debate about my Powers of looking into the future and predicting with great accuracy whether we will win or not.

It's hardley the point of the thread.

Though why would you label round 3 against Essendon at the 'G a win, yet round 13 against Essendon at the 'G a loss?

Simple.

I split them one win each and went with the home win, as in recent years we have tended to split the games (though not this one)

The Pies I think we have the wood on and hence I gave us 1 win and the other a 50/50.

Would you like me to explain all my casual thoughts on it or would you just like to pick out a number?

 

[blues4flag]

I put this line in specifically for the likes of posters like you:

I hoped that would avoid the semantic debate about my Powers of looking into the future and predicting with great accuracy whether we will win or not.

It's hardley the point of the thread.

I read through your hold post, but that line I must've missed that line somehow. Similar to the incident in the Ray Romano Simpsons episode, I suspect.

Simple.

I split them one win each and went with the home win, as in recent years we have tended to split the games (though not this one)

Would you like me to explain all my casual thoughts on it or would you just like to pick out a number?

Then why not give each of the Bombers games 50/50? What makes us more likely to win the first than the second?

But yeah, I'll be content with 12 wins and a finals berth. 14 wins is excellent, 10 wins and I'll be in tears.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Just at the first glance I picked 12 wins, a little luck going our way and maybe 14.

If we have a key player injured (Fev, Judd, Waite) then maybe around 10 wins.

We just need to add some depth to certain positions, I think we have done this with the Ruck, the defense and forwards are the next areas.

 

[BlueYoss]

In 2008, 13 wins was enough for St Kilda to sneak into 4th spot on the ladder by the end of round 22.

So I'm going to go with 14 wins just to be sure

PS Why can't I see who voted for what?

I wanna know who's predicting less than 6 wins....

 

[Juddbemetron]

This is how i see it
Blue = Should Win
Green = Could Win
Red=Improbable

1. Richmond v Carlton MCG (N)
2. Carlton v Brisbane Lions TD (N)
3. Carlton v Essendon MCG (N)
4. Sydney v Carlton SCG
5. Western Bulldogs v Carlton TD
6. Hawthorn v Carlton MCG
7. Carlton v Fremantle C (N)
8. Collingwood v Carlton MCG
9. Adelaide v Carlton AS
10. Carlton v West Coast TD (N)
11. Brisbane Lions v Carlton G (N)
12. Carlton v St Kilda TD (N)
13. Essendon v Carlton MCG (N)
14. Fremantle v Carlton S (T)
15. Carlton v Richmond MCG
16. Carlton v Sydney TD
17. Carlton v Collingwood MCG (N)
18. North Melbourne v Carlton TD (N)
19. Carlton v Geelong MCG (N)
20. Port Adelaide v Carlton AS
21. Carlton v Melbourne TD
22. Carlton v Adelaide TD

All together
12 should wins
8 could wins
2 improbable

Now if we win 10 out of 12 should wins
and half our could wins
and none of our improbables

that equals 14 wins
which equals 5th to 7th on the ladder (4th if we are lucky and the ladder is similiar to this years one)

Now being a biased carlton supporter i of course think we will win 20 of those games
but being realistic i think we are a real chance of winning 14 or even a few more games

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

12 - 13 or else its a failure year

 

[BlueYoss]

12 - 13 or else its a failure year

Bit early in the season for the 'f' word isn't it?

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

Bit early in the season for the 'f' word isn't it?

no... with the draw that we have 12 wins in the absolute minimum or else ill be pissed and wanting some heads to roll.

 

[gandaal]

This is how i see it
Blue = Should Win
Green = Could Win
Red=Improbable

1. Richmond v Carlton MCG (N)
2. Carlton v Brisbane Lions TD (N)
3. Carlton v Essendon MCG (N)
4. Sydney v Carlton SCG
5. Western Bulldogs v Carlton TD
6. Hawthorn v Carlton MCG
7. Carlton v Fremantle C (N)
8. Collingwood v Carlton MCG
9. Adelaide v Carlton AS
10. Carlton v West Coast TD (N)
11. Brisbane Lions v Carlton G (N)
12. Carlton v St Kilda TD (N)
13. Essendon v Carlton MCG (N)
14. Fremantle v Carlton S (T)
15. Carlton v Richmond MCG
16. Carlton v Sydney TD
17. Carlton v Collingwood MCG (N)
18. North Melbourne v Carlton TD (N)
19. Carlton v Geelong MCG (N)
20. Port Adelaide v Carlton AS
21. Carlton v Melbourne TD
22. Carlton v Adelaide TD

All together
12 should wins
8 could wins
2 improbable

Now if we win 10 out of 12 should wins
and half our could wins
and none of our improbables

that equals 14 wins
which equals 5th to 7th on the ladder (4th if we are lucky and the ladder is similiar to this years one)

Now being a biased carlton supporter i of course think we will win 20 of those games
but being realistic i think we are a real chance of winning 14 or even a few more games

Can't argue with that. Excellent work

 

[PumpyChowdown]

12 wins.

 

[CarltonFan]

13 wins

Last year we won 10, and we should have finished off adelaide + sydney + stkilda = 13.

 

[CTwenty]

Who else were for more than 16 like me?

Assuming a full strength side with no injuries....

Losses are Geelong and Hawthorn.
50/50 are Richmond (twice), dogs, and North.
The others are all winnable.

This actually gets me to 18 wins (sharethe 50/50).

Perhaps a little optimistic....

 

[thefevshow]

if everything goes well with injuries and our youngsters keep improving, as well as the usual suspects doing there damage then i think we should win 12-14 games

 

[LemmingMaster]

no... with the draw that we have 12 wins in the absolute minimum or else ill be pissed and wanting some heads to roll.

We seriously don't have the depth to make comment like that. We can not afford to lose certain key personnel. What happens if we win 11 games and had to do that playing without Fevola for most of the year?

Things happen in football.

 

[gandaal]

The truth is that we don't have any depth whatsoever. We have plenty of kids, some of whom have a bit of talent, but when it comes to depth in AFL standard plug and play AFL players were are still seriously lacking.

 

[Juddbemetron]

Who else were for more than 16 like me?

Assuming a full strength side with no injuries....

Losses are Geelong and Hawthorn.
50/50 are Richmond (twice), dogs, and North.
The others are all winnable.

This actually gets me to 18 wins (sharethe 50/50).

Perhaps a little optimistic....

there is a big difference between winnable and games we will win
are you saying we will win every winnable game
and add to 50-50 sydney at scg and stkilda

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

We seriously don't have the depth to make comment like that. We can not afford to lose certain key personnel. What happens if we win 11 games and had to do that playing without Fevola for most of the year?

Things happen in football.

hind site is wonderful, im banking on a full year from everyone...

obviously with injuries comes less expectations, but otherwise they are very high now...

 

[CrippsonBlue]

We seriously don't have the depth to make comment like that. We can not afford to lose certain key personnel. What happens if we win 11 games and had to do that playing without Fevola for most of the year?

Things happen in football.

I think he is making the point, by saying 12 wins, that we should be making finals, and anything else is a failure.

Surely there isnt anyone here that thinks us not making finals won't be a failure....we had our fair share of injuries this year, in the backlne as well which is our weakness, so unless Fev is out all year, can't really use that as an excuse

...Anyway, when people make predictions, I think its safe to assume they are saying it with a view that we will have our best 22 to pick from more often than not

 

[thylacine60]

Sub-Poll

How many "How Many Wins In 09" threads will be started in the next 5 months?

1. I say 24.
2.

 

[1981]

I find these Qs quite hard to answer, depends on injuries at the end of the day

 

[AlecDuncan]

I said 16, but that's probably optimistic.

12 shoulds - games against sides we beat last year,
8 mights - games we're a chance of,
2 nos - we have no hope of.

So I split the 8 and came up with 16. Realistically we'll probably drop 2 of the "shoulds" and end up with 14. I'll be very happy if we win all the games we should - that'll be a sign of real progress.