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Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 3

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A good thing to take into account is that the 14 day average for the 18th (when the decision is made) will be from the 5th-18th of Oct. So the past few days won't count in that average. But they could be days we look forward to dropping off because they inflate the average. Just like how today was lost a day in the 40s

Its just a number, not a free pass. So much faith in a magic number.
 

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The faith put in the maths of a moving target staggers me.
You don't put faith in maths and the target isn't moving.

We don't hit a 14 day rolling average of under 5 cases with less than 5 mystery cases and we can't hit the next step.

There is nothing moving about that. The date might move but the trigger points haven't. But I don't care for the date, I care for hitting the targets (which haven't moved) we have been given.
 
You don't put faith in maths and the target isn't moving.

We don't hit a 14 day rolling average of under 5 cases with less than 5 mystery cases and we can't hit the next step.

There is nothing moving about that. The date might move but the trigger points haven't. But I don't care for the date, I care for hitting the targets (which haven't moved) we have been given.

The number is not moving, its the virus thats moving. The number is just an indicator, not the free pass some want it to be.
We know how easy it is for a break out of the virus ahead of the numbers.
We know how royally we stuffed up last time, maybe you dont.
 
You don’t expect the private sector to make a profit and have adequate care, checks and balances?
Obviously $18b+ a year in federal government subsidies isn’t enough, give these private corporations more of our money for goodness sakes!
 
14 day average when excluding aged care and health care related cases is 2.6 https://covidlive.com.au/non-care

Of 702 postcodes in Victoria, 618 have 0 cases. Of the 82 that do still have active cases, 44 have just a one active case remaining.

Only 4 postcodes are in double figures with the worst being at 22 in 3030 Cocoroc, Point Cook, Quandong, Werribee, Werribee South.

Victoria added 4322 sequence samples to NextStrain overnight, not much new to report from that though.


next strain.png
 
IMO

Until those daily under investigation numbers drop, the easing of restrictions will be minimal. It doesn't seem like anything effective has been done to drive down those numbers since June.
 
The number is not moving, its the virus thats moving. The number is just an indicator, not the free pass some want it to be.
We know how easy it is for a break out of the virus ahead of the numbers.
We know how royally we stuffed up last time, maybe you dont.
Mate, I work in the entertainment industry (an industry forgotten about by government on all levels) so I haven't worked since March, with a gran in an aged care home who called last week and said they had a positive contact there. I've had to try and help my mother through a lockdown where I was the only one allowed to go out to shops and she can't see her grand children. I have friends whose careers are on cruise lines who can't work and now can't qualify for jobkeeper/seeker. Do not for 1 second accuse me of not knowing what the situation is like.

I am aware the virus is moving. I also know that if we get community transmission low we can follow it. We can do our best to stop it's movements. And fun fact: maths and numbers can help with that.

I know full well it takes 1 person to go to work with the virus for all of us to end up just as ****ed as last time. But if we don't get numbers of cases low and number of known transmissions low we can't open up. I can't go back to work. I can't see my gran and my mother can't see her grand children.

Numbers don't lie.

Enjoy the ignore list.
 
You don’t expect the private sector to make a profit and have adequate care, checks and balances?
Obviously $18b+ a year in federal government subsidies isn’t enough, give these private corporations more of our money for goodness sakes!

No excuse for any of the bodies at fault, not the private (for profit) sector, not for profits (e.g St Basils), or any Government body (Fed, State) involved. None of them.
 
Mate, I work in the entertainment industry (an industry forgotten about by government on all levels) so I haven't worked since March, with a gran in an aged care home who called last week and said they had a positive contact there. I've had to try and help my mother through a lockdown where I was the only one allowed to go out to shops and she can't see her grand children. I have friends whose careers are on cruise lines who can't work and now can't qualify for jobkeeper/seeker. Do not for 1 second accuse me of not knowing what the situation is like.

I am aware the virus is moving. I also know that if we get community transmission low we can follow it. We can do our best to stop it's movements. And fun fact: maths and numbers can help with that.

I know full well it takes 1 person to go to work with the virus for all of us to end up just as f’ed as last time. But if we don't get numbers of cases low and number of known transmissions low we can't open up. I can't go back to work. I can't see my gran and my mother can't see her grand children.

Numbers don't lie.

Enjoy the ignore list.

I speak to my daughter who I've not seen this started (Feb) - she's front line in this, been furloughed etc ... rely on a number to give a free pass. Roger that.
 

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IMO

Until those daily under investigation numbers drop, the easing of restrictions will be minimal. It doesn't seem like anything effective has been done to drive down those numbers since June.

Those numbers have dropped massively
 

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The way I read the map 8 that includes 4 in the CBD

cool - hopefully its all locals, so its a low probability die roll

next two weeks are gunna be nervous as ****! first we had the Narre outbreak, then chaddy/franga. hopefully this one comes up donuts
 
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