Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[harper2bastinac]

Essendon indicating they'd trade down, and several clubs wanting to trade up, gives me the feeling if the player/s we want at the pointy end are off the board, then we will move down.

If Sheezel and Wardlaw are gone, I'd like a trade with the Saints
Pick 4 and 22 for their pick 9 and next years first. Which also helps us with a potential Davey bid at 22.

That’s a good trade for both parties, your mob might still see an player available at pick 9 that they see similar to someone available at 4

 

[Foxx]

That’s a good trade for both parties, your mob might still see an player available at pick 9 that they see similar to someone available at 4

It's possibly still a little light on St Kildas way, but it would depend how much they want a particular player that won't make it to pick 9.

 

[bird_man]

It's possibly still a little light on St Kildas way, but it would depend how much they want a particular player that won't make it to pick 9.

With rumours of the possibility of Tsatas sliding down the order it's probably less likely that we'd give up a lot to move up the draft

With 10 we are a good chance to land one Tsatas, McKenzie or Phillipou you would think.

It doesn't seem the gap between 4 and 10 is huge.

 

[Foxx]

With rumours of the possibility of Tsatas sliding down the order it's probably less likely that we'd give up a lot to move up the draft

With 10 we are a good chance to land one Tsatas, McKenzie or Phillipou you would think.

It doesn't seem the gap between 4 and 10 is huge.

But it might guarantee a player they want.
I don't see them doing it either though.

Anyway it will be very interesting this year.
Tsatsis I can't get a read on. At AFL level he could be either a complete bust, or a superstar.
Has attributes and flaws to be either.

 

[bird_man]

But it might guarantee a player they want.
Anyway it will be very interesting this year.
Tsatsis I can't get a read on. At AFL level he could be either a complete bust, or a superstar.
Has attributes and flaws to be either.

It might, but it's a lot to give up when the quality between 4 and doesn't seem far off.

I'm just not sure anyone is worth giving up 2 first round picks for. I have raised that deal a few times on our board but the more I think about it the worse it looks.

 

[Foxx]

It might, but it's a lot to give up when the quality between 4 and doesn't seem far off.

I'm just not sure anyone is worth giving up 2 first round picks for. I have raised that deal a few times on our board but the more I think about it the worse it looks.

It makes you wonder where they rank on recruiters boards compared to media and bigfooty.
Some clubs have stated they want to move up, and some are prepared to move down.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a pointy end of the draft trade or two before the clock.

 

[botts]

But it might guarantee a player they want.
I don't see them doing it either though.

Anyway it will be very interesting this year.
Tsatsis I can't get a read on. At AFL level he could be either a complete bust, or a superstar.
Has attributes and flaws to be either.

Don’t know why but I get serious paddy dow vibes off him. Hope I’m wrong but all his highlight are is just him missing targets.

 

[Foxx]

Don’t know why but I get serious paddy dow vibes off him. Hope I’m wrong but all his highlight are is just him missing targets.

I'd like to see his efficiency % and score involvements markers.

 

[botts]

I'd like to see his efficiency % and score involvements markers.

Yeah. Such a small sample size. Not his fault due to injury but I would rather Mackenzie. His disposal is elite, give me 20 of them that 30 garbage ones

 

[eth-dog]

It's possibly still a little light on St Kildas way, but it would depend how much they want a particular player that won't make it to pick 9.

If we're trading down to St. Kilda, we're not adding a second. A F3 at best.

They're trading up to a top 5 pick. GWS had to trade their F1 straight up to move up 2 selections from 6 to 4 at the 2019 draft. Last year Port had to give up their F2 to trade up from 14 to 12.

10 and an F1 for 5 and what will end up as 24/25 is a ridiculously good deal for St. Kilda on market rates.

 

[Mofra]

Essendon indicating they'd trade down, and several clubs wanting to trade up, gives me the feeling if the player/s we want at the pointy end are off the board, then we will move down.

If Sheezel and Wardlaw are gone, I'd like a trade with the Saints
Pick 4 and 22 for their pick 9 and next years first. Which also helps us with a potential Davey bid at 22.

If Sydney are as keen on Humphrey as the rumours suggest you could end up with a very nice haul of picks.

 

[bird_man]

If we're trading down to St. Kilda, we're not adding a second. A F3 at best.

They're trading up to a top 5 pick. GWS had to trade their F1 straight up to move up 2 selections from 6 to 4 at the 2019 draft. Last year Port had to give up their F2 to trade up from 14 to 12.

10 and an F1 for 5 and what will end up as 24/25 is a ridiculously good deal for St. Kilda on market rates.

Its really not. Not when the anyone we take at 5 could could well be there at 10.

The draft is very even between those picks which makes giving up a F1 a lot to move up the draft 5 spots

Just looking at what number the draft pick is it might sound like a great deal but every draft is different.

If it's a great deal for anyone, it's Essendon.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Its really not. Not when the anyone we take at 5 could could well be there at 10.

The draft is very even between those picks which makes giving up a F1 a lot to move up the draft 5 spots

Just looking at what number the draft pick is it might sound like a great deal but every draft is different.

If it's a great deal for anyone, it's Essendon.

All depends on who you want. If it's Humphrey, Tsatas or Phillipou, you're likely going to have to move. If it's Jefferson or MacKensie hold firm.

Tsatas and whoever at 22-24 (Hayes, Weddle, Keeler, George, Cowan, Hotton, Jones) vs Jefferson/Mackensie + pick 6-10 next year.

 

[eth-dog]

Its really not. Not when the anyone we take at 5 could could well be there at 10.

The draft is very even between those picks which makes giving up a F1 a lot to move up the draft 5 spots

Just looking at what number the draft pick is it might sound like a great deal but every draft is different.

If it's a great deal for anyone, it's Essendon.

It really is. If you're trading up, you think the guy you want won't be there.

Of course it's different. However the market has shown it's hand in these regards. Last year Port gave up a F2 to move from 14 to 12 to get Josh Sinn, not knowing that we were probably going to take Ben Hobbs anyway. Without gaining anything else in the process. In 2019 GWS gave up a F1 to move up two spots (yes there was the argument of a Green bid, I know).

If the trade happens then you're moving significantly further, and as such will be getting a third round pick back at best. If we trade pick 22 it'll be either paired with our F2 to move ahead of a Davey bid or a Davey bid has come in and we're trading it for someone else's F2 and a pick in the 40's/50's

 

[bird_man]

It really is. If you're trading up, you think the guy you want won't be there.

Of course it's different. However the market has shown it's hand in these regards. Last year Port gave up a F2 to move from 14 to 12 to get Josh Sinn, not knowing that we were probably going to take Ben Hobbs anyway. Without gaining anything else in the process. In 2019 GWS gave up a F1 to move up two spots (yes there was the argument of a Green bid, I know).

If the trade happens then you're moving significantly further, and as such will be getting a third round pick back at best. If we trade pick 22 it'll be either paired with our F2 to move ahead of a Davey bid or a Davey bid has come in and we're trading it for someone else's F2 and a pick in the 40's/50's

All depends on who you want. If it's Humphrey, Tsatas or Phillipou, you're likely going to have to move. If it's Jefferson or MacKensie hold firm.

Tsatas and whoever at 22-24 (Hayes, Weddle, Keeler, George, Cowan, Hotton, Jones) vs Jefferson/Mackensie + pick 6-10 next year.

Humphrey is probably the only one you mentioned that I would rule out making it to 10

The draft is so even from 5 on that any of those other guys could make it to 10. I don't see a huge difference in quality between Tsatas/Phillipou and McKenzie. Plenty of watchers have McKenzie ahead of Phillipou so I'd be more than happy to hold firm.

It would be a totally different story if we were moving up one higher and giving us the chance at Wardlow/Sheezel

 

[briztoon]

All depends on who you want. If it's Humphrey, Tsatas or Phillipou, you're likely going to have to move. If it's Jefferson or MacKensie hold firm.

Tsatas and whoever at 22-24 (Hayes, Weddle, Keeler, George, Cowan, Hotton, Jones) vs Jefferson/Mackensie + pick 6-10 next year.

Wait.

Are you proposing St Kilda’s first round pick, second round pick and future first round pick, for pick 4 is “fair”.

Is that the actual trade being discussed, or have I read it wrong?

Edit: checks draft order. Can’t be.

St Kilda pick 10 + F1, for Essendon pick 4 and 22.

Hard pass.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Wait.

Are you proposing St Kilda’s first round pick, second round pick and future first round pick, for pick 4 is “fair”.

Is that the actual trade being discussed, or have I read it wrong?

Edit: checks draft order. Can’t be.

St Kilda pick 10 + F1, for Essendon pick 4 and 22.

Hard pass.

Fair enough but pick 2 essentially went for pick 8 and 12. Pick 4 and 22 for 10 and 10 is pretty similar value. Considering I rate Humphrey at pick 1, I'd happily move up to get him. But Saints might not chance their luck with a strong draft next year.

 

[briztoon]

Fair enough but pick 2 essentially went for pick 8 and 12. Pick 4 and 22 for 10 and 10 is pretty similar value. Considering I rate Humphrey at pick 1, I'd happily move up to get him. But Saints might not chance their luck with a strong draft next year.

Pick 2 was traded because both of the players likely to be there, either Wardlaw or Sheezel, told interstate clubs they didn’t want to move, and WC already drafted a Tsatas type mid last year, in Campbell Chesser.

West Coast definitely didn’t get fair value on that trade, and as I mentioned on their board, were rorted in that trade.


But pick 4, doesn’t hold the same value as pick 2 in this discussion. You’re essentially drafting from the “best of the rest”.

Unless clubs see a kid as having potentially a De Goey or Dangerfield type development and impact.


St Kilda would also potentially be giving up a better pick, than pick 10 next year. They really have stood still this off-season, and that’s usually a recipe for sliding. In what’s considered a much stronger draft.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Pick 2 was traded because both of the players likely to be there, either Wardlaw or Sheezel, told interstate clubs they didn’t want to move, and WC already drafted a Tsatas type mid last year, in Campbell Chesser.

West Coast definitely didn’t get fair value on that trade, and as I mentioned on their board, were rorted in that trade.


But pick 4, doesn’t hold the same value as pick 2 in this discussion. You’re essentially drafting from the “best of the rest”.

Unless clubs see a kid as having potentially a De Goey or Dangerfield type development and impact.


St Kilda would also potentially be giving up a better pick, than pick 10 next year. They really have stood still this off-season, and that’s usually a recipe for sliding. In what’s considered a much stronger draft.

They must have loved that.

 

[RanaNaved]

Pick 2 was traded because both of the players likely to be there, either Wardlaw or Sheezel, told interstate clubs they didn’t want to move, and WC already drafted a Tsatas type mid last year, in Campbell Chesser.

West Coast definitely didn’t get fair value on that trade, and as I mentioned on their board, were rorted in that trade.


But pick 4, doesn’t hold the same value as pick 2 in this discussion. You’re essentially drafting from the “best of the rest”.

Unless clubs see a kid as having potentially a De Goey or Dangerfield type development and impact.


St Kilda would also potentially be giving up a better pick, than pick 10 next year. They really have stood still this off-season, and that’s usually a recipe for sliding. In what’s considered a much stronger draft.

Personally, I would rather 8 and 12 than 2.

 

[briztoon]

They must have loved that.

I’ve been a regular on their board all year.

For an oppo supporter, I get treated pretty well.

I don’t take the p!ss, and try and give an unbiased (or at least neutral) opinion.

 

[Hazardinho]

Absolutely delusional thinking that pick 9 and a future first for pick 4 and pick 22 is a fair trade.

 

[Ads734]

All depends on who you want. If it's Humphrey, Tsatas or Phillipou, you're likely going to have to move. If it's Jefferson or MacKensie hold firm.

Tsatas and whoever at 22-24 (Hayes, Weddle, Keeler, George, Cowan, Hotton, Jones) vs Jefferson/Mackensie + pick 6-10 next year.

The comcerm for the Saints is the risk is we could essentially be trading a top 3 pick. Next year. If we’re more confident of finnishing mid table again, I’d be on board.

 

[eth-dog]

The comcerm for the Saints is the risk is we could essentially be trading a top 3 pick. Next year. If we’re more confident of finnishing mid table again, I’d be on board.

I really doubt that you finish below any of us, Hawthorne, North, GWS, Adelaide or West Coast. I have you in the hunt for finals.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Absolutely delusional thinking that pick 9 and a future first for pick 4 and pick 22 is a fair trade.

Absolute market value. For pick 4 (Ash) in the 2019 draft GWS gave up pick 6 and future which was pick 11. Personally I rate Humphrey and Tsatas as way better prospects than either of those guys at draft time. Powerful large explosive goal kickers over rucks and half backs everyday of the week.

That isnt to suggest they want anyone, just that it isnt outrageous.