Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[Wild Bill]

Absolutely delusional thinking that pick 9 and a future first for pick 4 and pick 22 is a fair trade.

Its really close - not sure how you get it being delusional - unless your Dodo and want to win every trade by a land slide.

4 & 22 = 2,879
9 & 9 = 2,938

Who is better off is determined by the Saints 2023. Another 10th place and its even - if they make finals it would put the Saints in front - if they fall it puts ess in front.

With the Saints not improving their list in the off season I would be surprised if they got anywhere near the top 8.

 

[FrogDude]

Absolute market value. For pick 3 (Jackson) in 2019 Melbourne gave up pick 8 and a future which was pick 13. For pick 4 (Ash) in the 2019 draft GWS gave up pick 6 and future which was pick 11. Personally I rate Humphrey and Tsatas as way better prospects than either of those guys at draft time. Powerful large explosive goal kickers over rucks and half backs everyday of the week.

That isnt to suggest they want anyone, just that it isnt outrageous.

Pick 3 was Melbourne's own pick wasn't it? They finished 17th that year.

And the GWS trade isn't really relevant imo, as they were trying to get ahead of a Tom Green bid and had come off a GF season. Everyone thought that the F1 was going to be a late first, so at the time GWS were trading for Ash and Green for essentially a late first rounder.

 

[briztoon]

Absolutely delusional thinking that pick 9 and a future first for pick 4 and pick 22 is a fair trade.

But who is delusional?

 

[TheAthlete]

Its really close - not sure how you get it being delusional - unless your Dodo and want to win every trade by a land slide.

4 & 22 = 2,879
9 & 9 = 2,938

Who is better off is determined by the Saints 2023. Another 10th place and its even - if they make finals it would put the Saints in front - if they fall it puts ess in front.

With the Saints not improving their list in the off season I would be surprised if they got anywhere near the top 8.

Anyone who quotes points is seriously kidding themselves. You could come up with lots of deals that are relatively equal on points that no one would ever do. For example who in the right mind would trade 5 for 19 and 20 or 6 for pick 21 and 22. Absolutely no club ever is the answer. It is only a guide and one that is way out of whack when determining the value of top 5 picks. Here's another one.... show me a club that would trade 4 for 16 and 20.

 

[Wild Bill]

Anyone who quotes points is seriously kidding themselves. You could come up with lots of deals that are relatively equal on points that no one would ever do. For example who in the right mind would trade 5 for 19 and 20 or 6 for pick 21 and 22. Absolutely no club ever is the answer. It is only a guide and one that is way out of whack when determining the value of top 5 picks. Here's another one.... show me a club that would trade 4 for 16 and 20.

But the trade without points looks decent and far from delusional.

two top 10 picks for an early 1st and early 2nd.

Which would you prefer?

 

[bird_man]

But the trade without points looks decent and far from delusional.

two top 10 picks for an early 1st and early 2nd.

Which would you prefer?

When you consider how even the draft is after pick 3 and the fact that next years draft is meant to be strong, two top 10 picks without a doubt.

Points are irrelevant.

 

[Obeanie1]

Personally, I would rather 8 and 12 than 2.

Same. The trade was muddied up with what was Rioli valued at. Very difficult to see what he was valued at.

I didn't think it was a rort either. Every trade you want more but outside pick 3 picks 4 to 12 are pretty even playing group.

 

[bird_man]

Same. The trade was muddied up with what was Rioli valued at. Very difficult to see what he was valued at.

I didn't think it was a rort either. Every trade you want more but outside pick 3 picks 4 to 12 are pretty even playing group.

I think most would agree that pick 27 was going to be about right for Rioli

I would have kept pick 2 and taken Wardlow tbh, but I can understand if WC are going to target local kids

 

[Mofra]

I think most would agree that pick 27 was going to be about right for Rioli

I would have kept pick 2 and taken Wardlow tbh, but I can understand if WC are going to target local kids

IIRC the last time West Coast traded down for a local kid they got Dom Sheed who provided one of the great all time GF moments.
I'm willing to give West Coast the benefit of the doubt here even if they miss out on Ginbey

 

[RanaNaved]

IIRC the last time West Coast traded down for a local kid they got Dom Sheed who provided one of the great all time GF moments.
I'm willing to give West Coast the benefit of the doubt here even if they miss out on Ginbey

Yes, and I recall many WC fans spewing we 'missed' out on Aish and Scharenberg

 

[Obeanie1]

I think most would agree that pick 27 was going to be about right for Rioli

I would have kept pick 2 and taken Wardlow tbh, but I can understand if WC are going to target local kids

Why would they just go for local targets?

It seems that alot of people just think West Coast = West Australian draftees.

People doing Phantom drafts who are not from WA do this consistently for some reason. When in reality the Eagles rarely draft all WA kids.

 

[Obeanie1]

IIRC the last time West Coast traded down for a local kid they got Dom Sheed who provided one of the great all time GF moments.
I'm willing to give West Coast the benefit of the doubt here even if they miss out on Ginbey

Ginbey is a media smoke screen IMO.

Great combine results but not much exposed form. A tough competitor who is improving at the right time but needs to work on his kicking.

 

[bird_man]

Why would they just go for local targets?

It seems that alot of people just think West Coast = West Australian draftees.

People doing Phantom drafts who are not from WA do this consistently for some reason. When in reality the Eagles rarely draft all WA kids.

Over half of West Coasts list is from WA and the majority of those were taken from the draft

If you consider how many draftees actually come out of WA it suggests they seem to draft quite a few WA kids, definitely not rarely

If that's not the plan then I don't really understand it at all to be honest. I can understand why people have come to that conclusion.

Wardlow looks like a gun

8 should still get you a good player but it's a fair drop off from Wardlow in quality and 12 is probably scraping the barrel

 

[Tommy Wigs]

If it was such a great deal for St Kilda we'd have Saints fans screaming out for it to happen.

The fact is the draft is very even from 4 onwards and pick 10 is still a pretty good place to be.

You can pull up as many old trades as you like to make it sound better but IMO It would be a silly move for St Kilda.

Yep, very happy at 9. I’d rather use next years first to bring that in for a pick, not to simply move up.

 

[Obeanie1]

Over half of West Coasts list is from WA and the majority of those were taken from the draft

If you consider how many draftees actually come out of WA it suggests they seem to draft quite a few WA kids, definitely not rarely

If that's not the plan then I don't really understand it at all to be honest. I can understand why people have come to that conclusion.

Wardlow looks like a gun

8 should still get you a good player but it's a fair drop off from Wardlow in quality and 12 is probably scraping the barrel

The player around 8 I am hoping for is Phillapou, Clark or McKenzie. And I dont consider them to be a fair drop from Wardlaw. Wardlaw with questionable hamstrings, little 3xposed form in 2022 qnd another Vic Metro kid who is keen to stay in Melbourne.

The best available at pick 8 likely isnt a WA kid.

Pick 12 is right where Hewett and Busslinger are ranked so one of them Id be happy with.

Pick 20 unless Ginbey or Hewett slides I dont see best available being WA talent either. Hotton, Barnett, Bugeil and a few other non WA players would be ranked higher. If Allen was there maybe. George could be the one I see the Eagles taking a risk with.

Pick 26 is anyones guess. Caleb Smith is the smokie here.

And we may look to trade in a pick to land Broadbent as a local project ruck.

Yes the Eagles use later picks and rookie picks on WA players more often then not. But their top 30 picks they go best available.

 

[bird_man]

The player around 8 I am hoping for is Phillapou, Clark or McKenzie. And I dont consider them to be a fair drop from Wardlaw. Wardlaw with questionable hamstrings, little 3xposed form in 2022 qnd another Vic Metro kid who is keen to stay in Melbourne.

The best available at pick 8 likely isnt a WA kid.

Pick 12 is right where Hewett and Busslinger are ranked so one of them Id be happy with.

Pick 20 unless Ginbey or Hewett slides I dont see best available being WA talent either. Hotton, Barnett, Bugeil and a few other non WA players would be ranked higher. If Allen was there maybe. George could be the one I see the Eagles taking a risk with.

Pick 26 is anyones guess. Caleb Smith is the smokie here.

And we may look to trade in a pick to land Broadbent as a local project ruck.

Yes the Eagles use later picks and rookie picks on WA players more often then not. But their top 30 picks they go best available.

Except for Allen, Ryan, Nic Nat, Sheed, Sheppard, Darling you hardly ever take WA players in the top 30.....


We will have to agree to disagree on Wardlow. I'd prefer pick 2 but we won't know for another 5 or 6 years whether it was a good deal

 

[RanaNaved]

Over half of West Coasts list is from WA and the majority of those were taken from the draft

If you consider how many draftees actually come out of WA it suggests they seem to draft quite a few WA kids, definitely not rarely

If that's not the plan then I don't really understand it at all to be honest. I can understand why people have come to that conclusion.

Wardlow looks like a gun

8 should still get you a good player but it's a fair drop off from Wardlow in quality and 12 is probably scraping the barrel

Think he meant WC rarely take all WA from the one draft.

The plan was/is to take two players the Eagles rate highly, regardless of state. Bonus if they're from WA.

As for the supposed 'gap' in quality, I can still remember Eagles' fans being pissed at not being able to access one of the 3 'standouts' from the 2010 draft....those players were Swallow, Day and Bennell. WC were left with Andrew Gaff.

Same again in 2013, trading pick 6 and getting 11. We were going to miss out on the elite talent like Aish, Scharenberg and Freeman. WC got Sheed instead.

There's going to be high pick busts and low picks who become guns from this draft. No one knows how things will go, but WC are really well placed to do well

 

[bird_man]

Think he meant WC rarely take all WA from the one draft.

The plan was/is to take two players the Eagles rate highly, regardless of state. Bonus if they're from WA.

As for the supposed 'gap' in quality, I can still remember Eagles' fans being pissed at not being able to access one of the 3 'standouts' from the 2010 draft....those players were Swallow, Day and Bennell. WC were left with Andrew Gaff.

Same again in 2013, trading pick 6 and getting 11. We were going to miss out on the elite talent like Aish, Scharenberg and Freeman. WC got Sheed instead.

There's going to be high pick busts and low picks who become guns from this draft. No one knows how things will go, but WC are really well placed to do well

Yeah, as I said, we won't know if it's a good deal for 5 years at least.

All I'm saying is that I'd have preferred to keep 2 as it stands. None of us can predict the future though.

I'll be very surprised if at least one of those picks isn't a WA kid though

 

[RanaNaved]

Yeah, as I said, we won't know if it's a good deal for 5 years at least.

All I'm saying is that I'd have preferred to keep 2 as it stands. None of us can predict the future though.

I'll be very surprised if at least one of those picks isn't a WA kid though

I agree. One of Busslinger, Allan, Ginbey or Hewett will be taken at 9 or 13 imo.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

North have picks 40 and 43. Due to lack of list spots we will be packaging them up and trying to move up the order. Thinking a pick in the mid to late 20's will be targeted.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

North have picks 40 and 43. Due to lack of list spots we will be packaging them up and trying to move up the order. Thinking a pick in the mid to late 20's will be targeted.

If we delist more, yes. I think we’ll see both those picks packaged for 2023.

 

[Claythesmiths]

North have picks 40 and 43. Due to lack of list spots we will be packaging them up and trying to move up the order. Thinking a pick in the mid to late 20's will be targeted.

With only ~50 picks expected to be used, picks in the 40s are fairly low value except to clubs with points considerations. 40 and 43 might have value for Brisbane in exchange for 34, but I think that's as high as North could get.

 

[eth-dog]

Essendon is in an interesting spot. If a trade for 4 for 2x firsts came through I can see us trying to be aggressive with 22 and moving to anywhere between Melbourne's pick 13 and GWS's 19 along with our F2.

If we simply take Tsatas or Wardlaw and a bid came in before it, I think 22 may be traded into a F2 and maybe a few points.

 

[chopflop]

Essendon is in an interesting spot. If a trade for 4 for 2x firsts came through I can see us trying to be aggressive with 22 and moving to anywhere between Melbourne's pick 13 and GWS's 19 along with our F2.

If we simply take Tsatas or Wardlaw and a bid came in before it, I think 22 may be traded into a F2 and maybe a few points.

22 for the Bulldogs F2 and one of our late picks makes some sense