If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

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Mr.X

Premiership Player
Apr 27, 2007
3,543
811
AFL Club
Carlton
The competition is so even these days, and starting the season 0-1 could mean missing out on finals.

It's tough to stay ahead, and a 0-3 start to the season often means making finals is unlikely
 

100action

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 18, 2009
6,013
5,753
Mogadishu
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Pre 2016 the stats said you don’t win the grand final from 7th. The stats lied.
bulldogs had 3 god level talents at the club to pull it off though: Beveridge, Bontempelli and Dalrymple. Dalrymple has since been poached (and his last 2017 draft for us looks extraordinary) - will be sorely missed.

Such talent simply converges very rarely in history i.e. Genghis Khan, Subutai and Jebe. It's unlikely we will see it in several lifetimes assuming AFL or humans are still around.
 

YouBeauty

All Australian
Sep 26, 2004
931
934
Bottomless Pit
AFL Club
Collingwood
People get way too caught up in history thinking something that happens in the past defines the future.

People also think that AFL history is some sort of magical way of predicting the future but that is also wrong. You need to question the real reason as to why teams that go 0-2 don't do well and that's because these team are generally average and don't win more than they lose. There are exceptions and they are teams that had good reasons to why they lost a few in a row and other teams have improved as the season has progressed.
 

RobbieGray17

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 19, 2007
11,686
6,107
adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
People get way too caught up in history thinking something that happens in the past defines the future.

People also think that AFL history is some sort of magical way of predicting the future but that is also wrong. You need to question the real reason as to why teams that go 0-2 don't do well and that's because these team are generally average and don't win more than they lose. There are exceptions and they are teams that had good reasons to why they lost a few in a row and other teams have improved as the season has progressed.
Its a stupid stat bought up by idiots. Adelaide or Sydney, Melbourne and Collingwood could be 0-2 by the end of the week and no indication that they are bad, just played teams that are good.
 

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samFFC

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 1, 2013
15,173
11,764
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Fremantle
Other Teams
Fulham, 76ers, Cubs, Bills
Its a stupid stat bought up by idiots. Adelaide or Sydney, Melbourne and Collingwood could be 0-2 by the end of the week and no indication that they are bad, just played teams that are good.
How many good teams are there?
Those 4 teams will have played

Hawthorn
Adelaide/Sydney
WB
Port
Geelong
Richmond

And I don’t think many people would disagree that GWS, WC are also “good”. That’s 8 teams. (Also who knows about teams like Brisbane, Freo).
So the 0-2 team would be below at least 8 teams. Which is the point!
Why is that idiotic?
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,155
17,005
AFL Club
Richmond
Pre 2016 the stats said you don’t win the grand final from 7th. The stats lied.
Actually, the way you calculate likelihood in a situation like that is by using a method such as Laplace's Law of Succession.

So if it's 2016 and there have been 15 seasons of football where no team has won the premiership from 7th, you would calculate the probability of it happening this year as:

P = (0 + 1) / (15 + 2)

... which is about 6%.

A statistician would never say the probability of something happening is 0 just because it hasn't happened yet.
 

Scotland

TheBrownDog
May 5, 2006
58,028
62,710
AFL Club
West Coast
What about 2-0?

2018
GWS (7th), Port (10th), GC (17th), Haw (4th)

2017
8 teams, 6 made finals including 3 of the eventual top 4

2016
WB (7th), Syd (1st), GC (15th), North (8th)

2015
Adel (7th), Syd (4th), GWS (11th), Freo (1st), WB (6th)
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
38,460
31,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
What about 2-0?

2018
GWS (7th), Port (10th), GC (17th), Haw (4th)

2017
8 teams, 6 made finals including 3 of the eventual top 4

2016
WB (7th), Syd (1st), GC (15th), North (8th)

2015
Adel (7th), Syd (4th), GWS (11th), Freo (1st), WB (6th)
Exactly - 2-0 teams are much more likely to be good than 0-2 teams and therefore much more likely to play finals

#shockedtobesittinghere
 

Nankervis brothers

Premiership Player
Aug 16, 2006
4,665
5,395
Sydney
AFL Club
Geelong
At the end of round 2, 9% of the season has gone by. Or, if you like, 91% of the season remains.

No club in its right mind would decide on a massive rebuild or change its long-term plans after round 2. Fans are a different matter, they would throw the baby out at that point, given the chance. But fans aren't in their 'right minds'—that's a condition of being a fan.
 
Mar 23, 2019
21
10
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
In terms of making finals, no, but in terms of a premiership assault, making the top four becomes unlikely. Only the Bulldogs have managed to win from outside the 4 in the double chance system; it's the exception, not the rule. You need to win 15 or 16 games to make the 4. Melbourne and Essendon will have to win at least 15 of their last 20. Lose next week, and it's 15 of the last 19. Maintaining good form that long is hard, not sure either have what it takes.
 

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